I am very suspicious of making any valid conclusions about jobs Obama has created (or not) based on that study because it's "
baseline" for comparison is
conveniently September 2007.
IIRC, talk about subprime was showing up on tv in August, but talking heads like Kudlow were smugly dismissing the
subprime issue because it
only represented 15% of GDP and could only produce a mild recession, at worst. (I believe the global financial credit freeze was due to leveraged speculation using borrowed money with subprime essentially as principal, so he probably would have been right if it indeed were
only the subprime mortgages themselves going bad, and not the 40 - 50 to 1 leveraged losses using borrowed money with subprime as collateral and that might need to be reborrowed overnight each and every day markets are open). I think a lot of these players were using overnight funding to finance their gambling, and when subprime started to tumble these same players became hesitant to lend to anyone else because they suspected they owned the same toxic assets they themselves owned and thought they wouldn't get paid back if they lent them money.
Or, as Gordon Gekko said:
"Hedge fund managers came home with 50 to 100 million bucks a year.
So Mr. Banker, he looks around and says.
My life looks pretty boring.
So he starts leveraging his interest up to 40%, 50% to 100%. With your money not his. (I think this is supposed to be 40 - 50 : 1 leverage)
Yours. Because he could.
You are supposed to be borrowing not them.
And the beauty of the deal is no one is responsible.
Because everyone is drinking the same cool-aid.
http://political-economy.com/wall-street-money-never-sleeps/
Stock market dipped in July 2007, but completely recovered to new highs in early October, when the crash took place. So September labor statistics are probably based upon corporate CEOs with rosy outlooks based upon looking at economy and surging stock market in August or September, and like Kudlow scoffed that subprime is "contained" and of no real consequence and adjusted their businesses and hiring accordingly.
Real meltdown took place in October and that is when businesses started saying they have absolutely no clarity on future earnings and started laying off people en masse.
So, that study is probably like concluding that index investing no longer works by taking one particular 10 year snapshot where the starting point was absolute peak of the stock market in 2001 (prior to that, you always made money if you bought and held the SP500 (70% of total U. S. stock market capitalization) over any 10 year rolling period; it will also probably true for almost all rolling periods going forward, save another financial panic like we saw in 2007.
I believe I read that private sector has been adding 125k jobs per month for over a year, but monthly employment statistics and unemployment rate are being held down by forced layoffs in local and state government at same time.
Plus how many of those 'lost" jobs were construction workers building houses no one would need a have to live in, only flip, for many years? (someone on these forums previously posted housing statistics and I think he said we were building over 2 million homes during peak bubble, when norm was about 1.2 million, and right now we are only at 600K)