http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/0515pollQampA15.html
May. 15, 2004 12:00 AM
Frank Newport has a pulse on America.
As editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, he can tell you, with scientific accuracy, what Joe Six Pack feels about the economy, the presidential race and the prisoner abuse scandal in Iraq. The name Gallup is synonymous with public-opinion polling like Michael Jordan is synonymous with high-flying dunks.
Newport worked his way through college as a radio talk show host before eventually heading up the nation's most prestigious polling firm in the country. Arizona Republic political reporter Chip Scutari chatted with Newport on Friday about the role of polls in American democracy and how the presidential race is shaping up.
QUESTION: Why are public-opinion polls important for democracy?
ANSWER: "I think politicians need to hire more pollsters. I think politicians have to pay more attention to the polls. We need more analysis of public policy to guide their decisions. I'm less interested in having brilliant elected representatives, and I'm more interested in having elected representatives who know enough to understand the wisdom of the people they represent. Leaders should still lead. But a leader shouldn't think they know more than the public they represent."
Q: What does your latest poll say about the presidential race between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush?
A: "We did one last weekend. It says the race is dead even among likely voters. Bush and Kerry haven't moved a lot. But Bush's job approval rating is the lowest of his administration. There is a lot of negative feedback in Iraq. But the polls are showing a tie right now."
Q: What is the first thing someone should look at when a poll comes out?
A: "The most important thing is who did the poll. That's the first thing. The source of the poll is the key. But the average consumer has to rely on journalists to vet the poll, similar to medical research. A lot of firms will release a poll and send it to the media, and sometimes journalists fail to vet the poll. It's the interpretation that matters."
Q: How has political polling changed over the years?
A: "It's constantly evolving, but the actual methods have not changed dramatically. We do not use the Internet for general population polling. There have been incremental improvements in how we improve polling."
Q: Do you feel a big responsibility because so many major media outlets will use your polls as gospel truth?
A: "At Gallup, we have a tremendous sense of responsibility. It goes all the way back to our founder, Dr. George Gallup. He thought that well-done, scientific polling was an essential component of democracy. Gallup is a trusted name. We have very high standards of integrity."
Q: How does Gallup do a poll to gauge national reaction?
A: "The standard sample size is 1,000 people. We usually do it over a three or four-day period. Most polling firms will tell you that 1,000 people is a sweet spot. Our margin of error is plus or minus 3 (percentage points). That means had we interviewed everybody in America, the results would be within plus or minus 3 (percentage points)."
Q: Tell me about your new book, Polling Matters, which comes out July 30?
A: "The book is a dream of mine. I want to make a well-reasoned argument that polling is important in a democracy. I'll answer the criticism about polling and how it's done. It will be controversial, because some people don't think polling is necessary. I want there to be a big discussion about polling, politics and America."
Facebook
Twitter