Fudzilla: Bulldozer performance figures are in

[RussianSensation]

I can't remember a time when Intel was more on the defensive than it is now.

Intel being on the defensive has nothing to do with AMD. If anything, Intel's major problems right now revolve around limit future growth opportunities, and possibly declining personal computer market as more and more consumers shift away from laptops and PCs towards smartphones and other mobile devices such as tablets. Intel is likely far more concerned about making a competitive mobile CPU for devices outside of laptops and impeding threats of ARM.

Now, not only has ARM seized the low-power market (the OEMs there are not friendly to x86) but it is threatening to move upwards into servers with the emerging popularity of cloud-computing.

Umm...ARM moving into lower market segments will actually hurt AMD first because that's their "battleground".

"Worse still, Mr. Gauna posits that Windows8's arrival, which will run on ARM's (ARMH) platform, will herald an OEM shift from AMD solutions to ARM-based processors in the entry level and value-oriented segments of the personal computing market. Longbow Research's Joanna Feeney promptly rebutted Mr. Gauna's note point by point, but the equity has experienced a sharp drop-off of more than 20% in the last month and a half"

Moving back to their traditional markets, we've seen more OEM support for AMD now than ever before, and if Fusion actually catches on, could be a game-changer. Llano is actually a very powerful chip, unless you are running SuperPI

"JMP Securities chip analyst Alex Gauna downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) from Market Perform to Underperform, citing worries about general PC demand, a lackluster launch of the Llano mobile platform and long-term market share erosion in the retail, as well as enterprise space as Intel's (INTC) edge in research, design and manufacturing compound existing performance advantages."

Source

 

[Arzachel]

Alex Gauna

Source

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/17/the-day-apple-landed-in-guana/

but he[Alex Gauna] really distinguished himself Wednesday by downgrading Apple and casting aspersions on its product sales even as customers were still (five days after launch) lining up outside Apple Stores in the early morning hours to buy the latest iPad.

Why the hell would you listen to this guy?

 

[wuliheron]

All this talk of ARM and AMD threatening Intel should be relegated to the category of conspiracy theories and UFO nuts. Intel has at least a 3 year lead in fabrication technology and twice the research budget of AMD making them the eight hundred pound gorilla in the room. If they had a significantly larger lead it would put everyone else out of business and people would be claiming their technology comes from area 51.

ARM leverages low power solutions using standard fabrication technology. AMD is now committed to leveraging graphics using standard fabrication technology. Each has been systematically painted into their respective corners by Intel and, at best, represent thorns in the eight hundred pound gorilla's side. Despite all the recent hype Intel has just ordered a forth 22nm fabrication facility be built on the expectation sales will be better then projected.

With a single advance in low powered processors Intel could put ARM out of business and possibly acquire Nvidia permanently in the process. Even something as prosaic as a new battery technology could put ARM out of business. AMD is leveraging something more substantial in the form of their architectural expertise, but that is a dark horse in this race. We are rapidly approaching the limits of conventional silicon technology and conventional cpu/gpu architecture what will replace them is anyone's guess.

 

[podspi]

Russian, I was arguing that Intel was not an unassailable monopoly, not that things were looking up for AMD.

That being said, I think they are. The analyst you quoted was actually rebuked (the Same day if I recall). I'd link it but I am on one of those ARM mobiles you don't. Seem to have much faith in ;-)

 

[ed29a]

Umm...ARM moving into lower market segments will actually hurt AMD first because that's their "battleground".

"Worse still, Mr. Gauna posits that Windows8's arrival, which will run on ARM's (ARMH) platform, will herald an OEM shift from AMD solutions to ARM-based processors in the entry level and value-oriented segments of the personal computing market. Longbow Research's Joanna Feeney promptly rebutted Mr. Gauna's note point by point, but the equity has experienced a sharp drop-off of more than 20% in the last month and a half"

Exactly. Every single existing program will automagically recompile itself to run on ARM architecture on Windows 8. So people will take their existing software and migrate it to an ARM based machine.

 

[RussianSensation]

That being said, I think they are. The analyst you quoted was actually rebuked (the Same day if I recall). I'd link it but I am on one of those ARM mobiles you don't. Seem to have much faith in ;-)

I never said that I don't have faith in ARM. Actually the opposite.

23% of notebooks to be ARM-based in 2015
http://techreport.com/discussions.x/21314

I am not an analyst in the tech space but there is a consensus that ARM may become a major threat.

 

[Blue Shift]

Exactly. Every single existing program will automagically recompile itself to run on ARM architecture on Windows 8. So people will take their existing software and migrate it to an ARM based machine.

It is possible to write an x86 interpreter (or emulator) that runs on ARM. Alternatively, existing x86 binaries can be translated to ARM instead. No re-compliation from source code is necessary in either case.

 

[ed29a]

It is possible to write an x86 interpreter (or emulator) that runs on ARM. Alternatively, existing x86 binaries can be translated to ARM instead. No re-compliation from source code is necessary in either case.

Unless ARM make big strides in CPU power, the touted laptop will have to run Windows (an already complex and heavy OS), a bunch of other programs like anti-malware stuff, flash and other bloatware and an x86 emulator the same time. And you honestly believe this low powered efficient ARM cpu (that can run on cellphones) can do that? A dual core Atom has performance issues already and it's a native x86 CPU.

 

[frostedflakes]

Microsoft has claimed that Win 8 will be even less resources intensive than Win 7 (which was lighter than Vista if you'll remember, one of the goals of Win 7 was for it to run well on netbooks and other lower spec systems that Vista ran poorly on). With Win 8 being designed for ARM, I'm sure keeping resource usage in check is a big priority for Microsoft. They did a pretty good job in my opinion with Win 7, which runs pretty well on a single core Atom. I don't agree with your statement that dual core Atom has performance issues. Obviously you aren't going to want to encode video on it, but for web browsing and other basic stuff, Atom is pretty adequate. The only thing it can't handle is HD video, and that's due to Intel dragging their feet and not including hardware acceleration for decoding H.264, which has pretty much become a standard feature on x86 and ARM CPUs and chipsets. So if MS can keep resource usage the same or even cut back on it, I doubt Win 8 would have any problem running on a dual or quad core Cortex-A15, even with an emulation layer or something like that.

 

[Blue Shift]

And you honestly believe this low powered efficient ARM cpu (that can run on cellphones) can do that? A dual core Atom has performance issues already and it's a native x86 CPU.

No, not necessarily. I "honestly believe" that a less efficient, more powerful CPU that executes ARM instructions could. Isn't NVidia supposed to be working on one?

Edit: Who said anything about cell phones? I don't think Microsoft is shooting for Windows 8 on phones.

 

[ed29a]

@Blue Shift
Andy Lees said, well not Windows 8 in particular but Windows 8+1. They want to run a core OS across all kinds of devices (much like Linux). Let's not forget the tablet edition of Windows 8, running on ARM, that have same or similar class CPUs as in cell phones.

Don't forget that the OS running on ARM has to do a damn good job emulating and also running legacy crap like COM. Plus, software emulation will have significant CPU use and that directly translates into lower battery life. I really hope MS will not allow that. The last thing Windows on ARM needs is legacy bloatware. Is it possible to do a good emulation layer on ARM? I am skeptical, especially looking at the history of MS and their love of legacy code.


@frostedflakes
Windows itself might run well, but as soon as you mix 3d party apps in the picture, it goes downhill. I have a dual core Atom 525 machine, sold the old 330. As soon as any 3d party software that wasn't written efficiently was running (anti-malware, flash, random bloated software, etc...) the machine would crawl, even basic things like copying files was becoming a chore. Funny anecdote, bought a Netbook for my mom, she needed it for basic browsing, Future Shop rep suggested I remove the bloatware on it if it gets 'slow'. Even the salesmen know Netbooks are slow unless you can optimize them.

 

[Voo]

It is possible to write an x86 interpreter (or emulator) that runs on ARM. Alternatively, existing x86 binaries can be translated to ARM instead. No re-compliation from source code is necessary in either case.

An average emulator is usually about 10-100times slower than executing the native code, so that is out of the gate from the get go (heck look at how slow bochs runs on the EXACT same architecture where they can avoid lots of overhead; then look at what you need to run one of those PS2 emulators,..)

And translating x86 binaries to ARM? I believe that as soon as I see that working correctly on a slightly complex program. x86 has so many idiosyncrasies that that would be an horribly complex problem - and then it would still be illegal to run commercial programs through it as far as I can see

PS: Also has MS so far acknowledged that the whole Win32 API will be ported to ARM? I remember talk about it, but can't remember hearing something definite..

 

[AnandThenMan]

All this talk of ARM and AMD threatening Intel should be relegated to the category of conspiracy theories and UFO nuts. Intel has at least a 3 year lead in fabrication technology and twice the research budget of AMD making them the eight hundred pound gorilla in the room. If they had a significantly larger lead it would put everyone else out of business and people would be claiming their technology comes from area 51.

ARM leverages low power solutions using standard fabrication technology. AMD is now committed to leveraging graphics using standard fabrication technology. Each has been systematically painted into their respective corners by Intel and, at best, represent thorns in the eight hundred pound gorilla's side. Despite all the recent hype Intel has just ordered a forth 22nm fabrication facility be built on the expectation sales will be better then projected.

With a single advance in low powered processors Intel could put ARM out of business and possibly acquire Nvidia permanently in the process. Even something as prosaic as a new battery technology could put ARM out of business. AMD is leveraging something more substantial in the form of their architectural expertise, but that is a dark horse in this race. We are rapidly approaching the limits of conventional silicon technology and conventional cpu/gpu architecture what will replace them is anyone's guess.

There is so much wrong with this post it's not even funny. You have a severely inflated view of Intel to the point of insanity.

I will only add this, your attitude is exactly the kind of mind set that sinks entire companies. You seem to believe that Intel is invulnerable. They're not, and in fact Intel is the one that could end up being painted into a corner. They have no graphics tech to speak of, and x86 is very poorly suited to ultra low power devices. No amount of fabrication tech will overcome this.

 

[Edrick]

They're not, and in fact Intel is the one that could end up being painted into a corner. They have no graphics tech to speak of, and x86 is very poorly suited to ultra low power devices. No amount of fabrication tech will overcome this.

How do you figure that? Intel got this large without GPUs and without a large mobile footprint. Sure, in order for them to continue to grow, they will need to move into those areas. But painted into a corner? Hardly.

 

[AnandThenMan]

But painted into a corner? Hardly.

I said could be, meaning future, not that they are currently.

I just find wuliheron's post to be completely out there, and basically fanboy drivel. On one hand he states that Intel's fabrication advantage could nullify the performance/watt of ARM, then states that a battery breakthrough could put ARM out of business, presumably because the more efficient architecture would no longer matter in terms of battery life. An obvious contradiction. Then he goes on to conveniently state that Intel will acquire Nvidia, AND come up with a magic, low powered processor all at the same time. Really?

 

[Borealis7]

How do you figure that? Intel got this large without GPUs and without a large mobile footprint

isn't Intel the by-far-largest-graphics-supplier with its integrated graphics? or at least was, last time i checked, it held something like 40%.

 

[Keysplayr]

But painted into a corner? Hardly.

I said could be, meaning future, not that they are currently.

I just find wuliheron's post to be completely out there, and basically fanboy drivel. On one hand he states that Intel's fabrication advantage could nullify the performance/watt of ARM, then states that a battery breakthrough could put ARM out of business, presumably because the more efficient architecture would no longer matter in terms of battery life. An obvious contradiction. Then he goes on to conveniently state that Intel will acquire Nvidia, AND come up with a magic, low powered processor all at the same time. Really?

And I could have said, "Intel could be run purely on Broccoli." But it isn't.

 

[wuliheron]

There is so much wrong with this post it's not even funny. You have a severely inflated view of Intel to the point of insanity.

I will only add this, your attitude is exactly the kind of mind set that sinks entire companies. You seem to believe that Intel is invulnerable. They're not, and in fact Intel is the one that could end up being painted into a corner. They have no graphics tech to speak of, and x86 is very poorly suited to ultra low power devices. No amount of fabrication tech will overcome this.

No, I don't think of Intel as invulnerable. I simply don't think of ARM and AMD as being serious threats to Intel at this point in time. The power hungry nature of x86 architecture and Intel's weakness in graphics are not new concerns, yet the eight hundred pound gorilla still sleeps wherever it wants.

 

[wuliheron]

I said could be, meaning future, not that they are currently.

I just find wuliheron's post to be completely out there, and basically fanboy drivel. On one hand he states that Intel's fabrication advantage could nullify the performance/watt of ARM, then states that a battery breakthrough could put ARM out of business, presumably because the more efficient architecture would no longer matter in terms of battery life. An obvious contradiction. Then he goes on to conveniently state that Intel will acquire Nvidia, AND come up with a magic, low powered processor all at the same time. Really?

Actually, I'm anything but an Intel fanboi and don't even own any of their products. That doesn't mean I don't recognize the eight hundred pound gorilla for what it is and what it can do. Intel buying Nvidia and coming out with a new power efficient atom chip or a new battery coming on the market and making the power differences unworthy of consideration are about as far removed from "magic" as it gets. Brute force is more like it.

 

[AnandThenMan]

You do realize that Intel purchasing Nvidia has basically no chance of being approved by regulators, right? And I still fail to understand how new battery tech would somehow make Intel an unstoppable juggernaut. A much longer battery life would help everyone, and it would make Intel's process advantage much less important. If anything, it would hurt Intel more than help them.

You come across as grasping at straws and making up unlikely scenarios, just because Intel is the "800 pound gorilla". Intel has been extremely fortunate that they were able to get away with being a virtual monopoly for most of their existence. Why would the market move to Intel in ultra mobile anyway? The only reason that will happen is if Intel becomes a monopoly here, and according to you, that seems only possible if Intel purchases Nvidia.

Things change, at one time Apple was left for dead and was very close to going under. Microsoft used to be considered unstoppable, now they are struggling to gain a foothold in expanding markets, their Zune and mobile phone and other mobile device presence is a complete disaster, and Bing has failed to make much of an impact.

 

[BigDH01]

No, I don't think of Intel as invulnerable. I simply don't think of ARM and AMD as being serious threats to Intel at this point in time. The power hungry nature of x86 architecture and Intel's weakness in graphics are not new concerns, yet the eight hundred pound gorilla still sleeps wherever it wants.

AMD isn't a threat, but I think ARM is a lot more serious. Intel will probably always dominate the performance market, but in the consumer space people are moving to cheaper, lighter, smaller, mobile, and power efficient. ARM has huge advantages here, and now it's getting Windows 8.

 

[bridito]

Anything new here, or just more rehash of snoozing about delays?

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/di...up_of_Microprocessors_in_Q1_2012_Sources.html

The first comment seems to sum it all up:

The way things are going, AMD is going to refresh the FX lineup before it launches.

 

[AnandThenMan]

The way things are going, AMD is going to refresh the FX lineup before it launches.

It's really starting to look that way. Let's say AMD only gets volume of Bulldozer early next year, what are the implications? Is it possible that AMD will have to exit the performance CPU space completely? And what about servers?

Things don't look good at all for Bulldozer.

 

[bridito]

The way things are going, AMD is going to refresh the FX lineup before it launches.

It's really starting to look that way. Let's say AMD only gets volume of Bulldozer early next year, what are the implications? Is it possible that AMD will have to exit the performance CPU space completely? And what about servers?

Things don't look good at all for Bulldozer.

Personally, I have one molecule left in me of faith in BD. That molecule is still hoping for SB-E-shredding superperformance that would cause me to buy one on the day of launch, but the rest is pretty well determined to go SB-E. I'm sure I'm not alone in this determination. AMD has butchered this launch (which is now 10 months late or so?) but then again, Intel has been playing the molasses game as well so there are no saints here. If, and of course it's still an if, BD fails to outperform 2600K by a significant slice, I'd say that it might be very difficult for AMD marketing to try and sucker... er... convince the enthusiast community that Trinity is just around the corner and it will be blah blah blah blah (all the same apparently baseless crap we've had shoveled about BD for years).

 

[inf64]

Personally, I have one molecule left in me of faith in BD. That molecule is still hoping for SB-E-shredding superperformance that would cause me to buy one on the day of launch, but the rest is pretty well determined to go SB-E. I'm sure I'm not alone in this determination. AMD has butchered this launch (which is now 10 months late or so?) but then again, Intel has been playing the molasses game as well so there are no saints here. If, and of course it's still an if, BD fails to outperform 2600K by a significant slice, I'd say that it might be very difficult for AMD marketing to try and sucker... er... convince the enthusiast community that Trinity is just around the corner and it will be blah blah blah blah (all the same apparently baseless crap we've had shoveled about BD for years).

All the chances are that Zambezi @ 3.6Ghz won't outperform SB-E 6C @ 3.3Ghz,both with Turbo.BUT it should come close enough,difference of roughly 11% or so by my estimate(my estimate for average performance on desktop ,based on hardware.fr test results-I explained how I've got there in my blog).If AMD launches 8170 with 3.8Ghz default clock then they will be even closer to top performance crown. Westmere 6C will still be a contender to both though,but with its high price and dead end platform,I suppose very small number of enthusiasts will opt for it.
As for 2600K,Zambezi 8C will probably outperform it,but 2600K is strong because desktop workloads don't favor many cores that much.