FTC ends their investigation of Intel -- time for AMD to get nervous?

Modus

Platinum Member
Oct 9, 1999
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The FTC has closed its three year investigation of Intel.

Intel is one of the largest, richest, most successful companies in the world. In an unfetered market, wealth breeds wealth, making it nearly impossible for a dominant company NOT to remain the dominant company, and ensuring that their profits increase exponentially. And while Intel is definitely still the dominant company in the PC microprocessor industry, its market share has eroded and its products have been behind AMD in every measurable category: price, performance, availability, etc. Why?

Most agree that the main cause is not AMD's solid and steady performance but Intel's own technological stagnation and, in some cases, utter ineptitude.

Personally, I find it hard to believe that Intel simply "screwed up", and allowed AMD to consistently gain market share and outclass them with superior products. Instead, I find it more likely that Intel's recent snafu's are due, at least in part, to their correct interpretation of the FTC's objective. Intel realizes that the FTC cares little about "anticompetitive tactics" or "predatory business practices" -- which are accepted in a capitalist economy and actually impossible to prove when the perpetrators are clever enough -- but is actually a body who's main goal is to ensure that no one company ever becomes overly dominant in a given industry, regardless of whether that domination came by illegal means. (Incidentally, this is also the rationalle behind the Microsoft case. The FTC is correct in deciding that it is economically dangerous for so much money to be concentrated in such a small group of people, hence the break up of the company. It has nothing whatsoever to do with anticompetitive business practices and everything to do with a simple redistribution of wealth -- a kind of back door socialism that is in fact benefical, if not publically recognized or supported.)

So Intel determined to give AMD a little breathing room, and if you look back to when the FTC got to work in 1997, AMD certainly needed it. Their K6 line was a great value but certainly not a flagship product, and at this time the Celeron was reigning supreme, with Cyrix still battling for scraps below. AMD was posting significant losses and stock was low.

I think Intel just decided to let up a little. They realized that they could retain their massive marketting machine and play just nice enought to remain competitive with AMD's new technology while biding their time for when the FTC would turn away, satisfied that their was a seemingly worthy challenger.

Now that the FTC is out of the picture, look for Intel to once again use their superior established capital to put a strangehold on the market. . . until the FTC pokes them again and resumes the cycle.

Modus
 

RagingGuardian

Golden Member
Aug 22, 2000
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So you are saying that somehow Intel had something to do with AMD's superior processor, the athlon, gaining mass market position? I guess that the P4 will now put the Mustang to shame now the FTC is off Intel's back.
 

dl

Banned
Oct 29, 1999
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um dude, did you read his post? that's not what he said at all!

good post modus!
 

jmcoreymv

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
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You know...it would seem to explain a few things, im not saying that it helped amd in anyway, but intel has been kind of slow lately....
 

A5

Diamond Member
Jun 9, 2000
4,902
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Amazing what companies can do when the government is watching:p
 

JellyBaby

Diamond Member
Apr 21, 2000
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I've heard this idea before and I'm not certain I agree with it. Intel's been living through what IBM went through in the 80s (IBM became too big for their britches, too argogant, too bureaucratic and too slow to react to smaller competitors). Combine that with AMD's remarkable releases and here we are today. Never underestimate corporate greed and arrogance. Shareholder wealth my foot, there be egos involved here.
 

Shazam

Golden Member
Dec 15, 1999
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I'll slap you later Modus.

That was the biggest pile of drivel I have read in ages.

Intel "letting" up?? Give me a break.

Have you ever in your life worked for a large, major corporation?

If you have, then you will agree with me here.

If you haven't, then you will learn something new.

Large corporations are beset with problems such as bureaucracy, steering comittees, change management procedures, "idea banks", self-indulgent managers, inept people never being let go because they make such little impact that they can ride the job until the next round of layoffs, policies on how to move your desk, "mission statements", management incentive programs, learning incident programs, etc, etc.

Intel is subject to these sort of inertia dampening conditions just like any other company. THIS IS WHY THEY LOST THEIR MARKET POSITION.

Quite simply, they shot themselves in the foot. For example, think of the many, many meetings it took to think of the name "Pentium4". They probably went through 600 other names because it's the "process", and then took another 6 months to get "consensus" on "Pentium4". Not to mention signoffs by development, marketing, the 5 billion VPs at Intel, the safety people, and the janitorial staff.

This is why large corporations fail - because they can. So they do.


 

fergiboy

Senior member
Mar 10, 2000
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I believe that the performance decrease of Intel's processor is due to its branching off into many other products. Intel has introduced new networking components and new user-friendly products like Anypoint and their camera line. Intel has stretched their resources too far while AMD has only to create its line of Athlons.
 

Shazam

Golden Member
Dec 15, 1999
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Oooh yes, forgot "diversification". These days, companies should have "market focus".
 

Modus

Platinum Member
Oct 9, 1999
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Red Dawn,

<<Now it's a conspiracy huh Modus? Have you tried to contact Oliver Stone about your theory?>>

And have you ever tried arguning the issue rather than making juvenial, witless insults?

<<It's amazing how much a Socialist from Canada knows about how the American Government and American businesses work.>>

Look, it isn't that hard to believe Intel's heart wasn't into squeezing AMD while the FTC was breathing down their neck. As for me, I'm not a socialist or any other political follower. I don't even vote.

JellyBaby,

<<Intel's been living through what IBM went through in the 80s (IBM became too big for their britches, too argogant, too bureaucratic and too slow to react to smaller competitors).>>

I'm sure that has something to do with it, but the fact is that Intel's R&amp;D budget alone dwarfs AMD's entire revenue. I just can't accept that a copmany so rich would be so inept, unless it was partly deliberate.

Shazam,

<<Intel is subject to these sort of inertia dampening conditions just like any other company. THIS IS WHY THEY LOST THEIR MARKET POSITION.>>

That's it? That's the ONLY reason? Not anything else at all? Come on. Many factors contributed. I like your description of a large, unwieldy corporation, and I agree with it, but I can't accept that it's just a coincidence that Intel began to slip so soon after the FTC announced their anti-trust investigation. Surely, fear of eliminating the only competition that prevented a monopoly had something to do with it.

Fergiboy,

<<I believe that the performance decrease of Intel's processor is due to its branching off into many other products.>>

That's probably also a factor. AMD as a whole has been more focused on their core backbone of x86 microprocessors and flash memory.

Modus
 

Midnight Rambler

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,200
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I think it's three things. First, Intel's roadmap was spread too far over time, then when AMD became a competitor again, they (Intel) tried to bump up their schedule too quickly, and had some problems as a result. Secondly, and probably the singlemost reason for AMD's quick recovery, is that they were coming online with new foundry space just as we were coming out of a severe economic depression in Asia which had caused most every other fab company to scale back, even cancel new fab construction. In short, AMD's timing couldn't have been better. It has taken the better part of two years for the major foundries to expand their capacity since. Third, most definitely Intel is branching way out to avoid relying on a single product group as its major source of revenues. StrongARM, DSP, Bluetooth, hosting services, more presence in servers, networking, etc. etc. It's all part of the plan. They have some powerful alliances backing all of this up too ... Cisco, Ericsson, HP, etc.

As for AMD, the only thing they need to be nervous about is how much margin are they going to be able to maintain on their CPU's - they have slashed prices so much it could have a detrimental impact sooner or later. And this recent Intel earnings problem is a problem for AMD in that the real reason for Intel's stumble is demand-related, but not what one might think. What actually happened was that because Intel was so backordered, many of its major customers (OEM's, distributors, etc.) overordered in order to try to get enough supply. Then once supply came up, all of a sudden many of these &quot;extra&quot; orders were cancelled late in the earnings quarter. Result, Intel has excess supply and there is going to be a &quot;fire sale&quot; on CPU's. This is being seen by many analysts as a major negative for AMD.

I think both companies will be weak for a while, but not as weak as their stock prices have been. AMD will again have good numbers, and Intel will still have about $8.7B in revenues for the quarter, which is still huge.

TSMC is the best looking fab company at this time ...
 

Rogue

Banned
Jan 28, 2000
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Why on earth would Intel eat millions of dollars in defective hardware recalls, etc. just to let the little guy get one up on them. C'mon, the common logic is smacking you in the face and you're still blowing the same stupid horn. There are lots of better ways to give the little guy a chance. Face it, Intel has been blowing it for a while now because they are too big, too rich and too arrogant to think that anyone (especially a company that until recently could not beat them) can topple them from the top of the market. Compaq is releasing more and more AMD based systems every day. I have no doubt that the &quot;major OEM&quot; that has agreed to do SMP servers and workstation/enterprise level PCs based on AMD processors is Compaq. Intel is losing, and they're losing badly and no FTC investigation or pipe dream on why is going to answer for their mistakes and losses of late.
 

Shazam

Golden Member
Dec 15, 1999
1,136
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Modus,

the FTC investigation and the so-called &quot;fall&quot; of Intel are entirely coincidental. Get over it.

You wouldn't believe what large corporations can do to themselves. Next thing you'll be telling me New Coke was actually a scheme by Coca-Cola.
 

Slugbait

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
3,633
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Oh, great. Now Modus has expanded his &quot;knowledge&quot; beyond software vs. hardware modems. I, for one, fear what may be next...

Next year, that is...
 

Vrangel

Golden Member
Jan 12, 2000
1,259
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Its a conspiracy, I'm telling ya !!!

Last friday Intel preannounced bad quarter results.
100 billion dollars has been promptly chopped off its market cap.

Government was finally satisfied and dropped investigation.
Shrewd Intel management clearly deserves a raise. :p

EDIT
I also think Microsoft produces all bugs and viruses for Windows on purprose.
They make them in a secret lab in British Columbia.
Just to make sure people are disgusted with their product and use Linux. ;)

 

jmcoreymv

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,264
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Im not going to bring a connection between intel and amd into this, but i dont think its coincidental that as vrangel said, one week ago, intels stock drops 20% and then the ftc closes its investigation.
 

Modus

Platinum Member
Oct 9, 1999
2,235
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Red Dawn,

<<Modus, if that was all you were saying then I might not disagreed with you>>

Then you agree that the FCC decision to end the investigation is connected with Intel's recent earings shortfall. So how much of a stretch is it to imply the reverse: that Intel knew the FCC didn't want them getting too big at the expense of their competitors, and toned down the attack on AMD just a little?

And read the original post. I never claimed Intel's recent problems were ENTIRELY self-inflicted. I only said that perhaps the FCC investigation on them, and its thinly veiled threat of a long, expensive, PR nightmare was PARTLY responsible for Intel's more relaxed attitude in recent years.

Modus
 

WoundedWallet

Platinum Member
Oct 9, 1999
2,325
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That's the kind of discusion that we'll probably never know what the truth is.

If Intel was smart enough to do it, they'll also be smart enough not to admit it. If it was just a coincidence, I think they're smart enough not to dispute that. So in either case, Intel will always say it was a mere coincidence.

So it will be up to those who like Intel versus those who don't. Those who like it will say Intel was clever. Those who don't will say they're dumb.

The only thing for sure is that Intel will not disappear. They are like Ford. They will have true competition, but they will persevere.
 

RagingGuardian

Golden Member
Aug 22, 2000
1,330
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Intel is still King of the Hill and AMD won't topple them anytime soon. I do think that all the misfortunes Intel has had in the past are just coincidence and has nothing to do with the FTC investigation. Intel underestimated the power of the Athlon and along with flat out bad luck has given AMD the uperhand. Now AMD is on a role and shows no sign of slowing down.

I guess we can say the reason Microsoft has been shipping buggy software is to let the competitors catch up. Forget it...Microsoft has always shipped buggy software and unstable OS with exception of Win2000 which is pretty stable.
 

XMan

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
12,513
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I think Modus' secret identity has been revealed!!!

Carter? Chris Carter? Wow! I'm a huge fan, man! Can you get me an autographed picture of Gillian Anderson?!?!

P.S. Those cockroaches you see coming out of the walls aren't real. It's just a bad acid flashback . . . same as your conspiracy theories. Next thing you're going to tell me is that Illuminati are running AMD and using alien technology in their processors. It's an insidious plot to take over the world, I tell you!
 

Souka

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2000
4,728
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In reply to
RagingGuardian

Yeah...Intel is king of the hill...they own the business sector of PC's....and got news for everyone, that's where the money is.

Home PC's are NOT in everyone's home....maybe %20 US? and that skewed by us freaks with like 5 computers in a tiny room. The %20 would include computers sold back several years...maybe early pentiums? Ugh.....

My two cents...now back to work I go....
 

lsd

Golden Member
Sep 26, 2000
1,184
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modus is imho right. AMD didn`t take more market share beacuse intel can't put out a comparable processor.
imho : Intel saw what was happening to MSFT and took a few steps back.

however.... The winner in this is the consumer, increased competiton from amd = lower prices from intel.