Analog
Lifer
U.S. auto sales are expected to sputter in November, but automakers plan to make up some ground next month with year-end sales and top the industry's 2003 full-year performance.
But don't expect the final push to the finish line to be pretty.
With demand up a disappointing 1.4 percent this year, automakers, dealers and analysts say there will be a cacophony of ads for year-end sales drives. Ford Motor Co.'s Ford brand and General Motors Corp.'s Chevy division will be clawing it out for the title of best-selling vehicle brand, while other automakers maneuver to improve profits and market share before the books close on another fiscal year.
Every year ends with a sprint to the finish, but competition could get especially fierce in the remaining weeks of 2004, a year when automakers launched a record number of new vehicles in a U.S. market that is only barely growing.
"I see an all-out war for sales gains in the month of December," said Joseph Barker, an automotive analyst with CSM Worldwide in Farmington Hills.
Asian automakers continue to chip away at the grip Detroit automakers have on the U.S. market. Combined U.S. sales at GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group are down 0.6 percent this year, while demand for Asian-branded cars and light trucks has jumped 6.3 percent, according to Autodata Corp.
And Detroit automakers have seen their share of the U.S. market drop to 58.9 percent through October, from 60.1 percent a year ago.
Major automakers report November sales Wednesday, and those results will determine how aggressive they need to be in December.
Analysts say November sales should be flat or slightly down because American consumers tightened up after splurging on new cars and trucks earlier this fall.
"Our expectation was that November was going to be a payback month," Barker said.
Though dealers often see more showroom traffic over the long Thanksgiving weekend, November is traditionally a slower sales month as consumers turn their attention to Christmas shopping or postpone vehicle purchases until December, when end-of-the-year sales abound.
Analysts said November sales were sluggish despite improving economic conditions and aggressive incentive programs, such as GM's "Lock 'n Roll" campaign, which allows customers to lock ininterest rates on two vehicle purchases over a 10-year period.
At GG and Ford, sales are expected to dip 5 percent or less in November, while Chrysler is likely to see a 3 percent sales increase, Merrill Lynch auto analyst John Casesa said in a research report. Japan's Toyota Motor Co.p. and Nissan Motor Co. also should post higher year-over-year sales during the month, while Honda Motor Co., Mazda Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. will be down, he said.
After weak November sales, consumers should expect to see big discounts in December, particularly from GM, which is trying to stave off more market share losses this year and push its Chevrolet brand past Ford to become the country's best-selling nameplate.
According to Autodata, the Ford brand has sold 2.33 million vehicles through October -- compared with Chevy's 2.3 million -- and is in position to retain the best-selling brand title for an 18th consecutive year. A September offer to finance vehicles at zero-percent interest for 72 months brought Chevy within striking distance this fall, but Ford could still win the shootout, thanks in part to demand for new models such as the 2005 Mustang sports coupe.
"Leadership is a good thing to have," said Kevin Koswick, general sales manager of the Ford division. "But we're not going to do something that doesn't make sense for our long-term plan."
GM is watching the race, but trying not to become distracted by it, said Paul Ballew, the automaker's executive director of market and industry analysis. Win or lose, Ballew counts it as a victory that the Chevy brand has closed in on Ford this year.
"Five years ago, the gap was almost 800,000 units," he said.
GM officials may be downplaying the Chevy-Ford face-off, but Chevy dealers say there's no doubt the race is important, said Paul Bersok, sales manager of Matthew Hargreaves Chevrolet in Royal Oak. "It's on everyone's mind," he said.
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But don't expect the final push to the finish line to be pretty.
With demand up a disappointing 1.4 percent this year, automakers, dealers and analysts say there will be a cacophony of ads for year-end sales drives. Ford Motor Co.'s Ford brand and General Motors Corp.'s Chevy division will be clawing it out for the title of best-selling vehicle brand, while other automakers maneuver to improve profits and market share before the books close on another fiscal year.
Every year ends with a sprint to the finish, but competition could get especially fierce in the remaining weeks of 2004, a year when automakers launched a record number of new vehicles in a U.S. market that is only barely growing.
"I see an all-out war for sales gains in the month of December," said Joseph Barker, an automotive analyst with CSM Worldwide in Farmington Hills.
Asian automakers continue to chip away at the grip Detroit automakers have on the U.S. market. Combined U.S. sales at GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group are down 0.6 percent this year, while demand for Asian-branded cars and light trucks has jumped 6.3 percent, according to Autodata Corp.
And Detroit automakers have seen their share of the U.S. market drop to 58.9 percent through October, from 60.1 percent a year ago.
Major automakers report November sales Wednesday, and those results will determine how aggressive they need to be in December.
Analysts say November sales should be flat or slightly down because American consumers tightened up after splurging on new cars and trucks earlier this fall.
"Our expectation was that November was going to be a payback month," Barker said.
Though dealers often see more showroom traffic over the long Thanksgiving weekend, November is traditionally a slower sales month as consumers turn their attention to Christmas shopping or postpone vehicle purchases until December, when end-of-the-year sales abound.
Analysts said November sales were sluggish despite improving economic conditions and aggressive incentive programs, such as GM's "Lock 'n Roll" campaign, which allows customers to lock ininterest rates on two vehicle purchases over a 10-year period.
At GG and Ford, sales are expected to dip 5 percent or less in November, while Chrysler is likely to see a 3 percent sales increase, Merrill Lynch auto analyst John Casesa said in a research report. Japan's Toyota Motor Co.p. and Nissan Motor Co. also should post higher year-over-year sales during the month, while Honda Motor Co., Mazda Motor Corp. and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. will be down, he said.
After weak November sales, consumers should expect to see big discounts in December, particularly from GM, which is trying to stave off more market share losses this year and push its Chevrolet brand past Ford to become the country's best-selling nameplate.
According to Autodata, the Ford brand has sold 2.33 million vehicles through October -- compared with Chevy's 2.3 million -- and is in position to retain the best-selling brand title for an 18th consecutive year. A September offer to finance vehicles at zero-percent interest for 72 months brought Chevy within striking distance this fall, but Ford could still win the shootout, thanks in part to demand for new models such as the 2005 Mustang sports coupe.
"Leadership is a good thing to have," said Kevin Koswick, general sales manager of the Ford division. "But we're not going to do something that doesn't make sense for our long-term plan."
GM is watching the race, but trying not to become distracted by it, said Paul Ballew, the automaker's executive director of market and industry analysis. Win or lose, Ballew counts it as a victory that the Chevy brand has closed in on Ford this year.
"Five years ago, the gap was almost 800,000 units," he said.
GM officials may be downplaying the Chevy-Ford face-off, but Chevy dealers say there's no doubt the race is important, said Paul Bersok, sales manager of Matthew Hargreaves Chevrolet in Royal Oak. "It's on everyone's mind," he said.
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