Forbes: "Why the most talked about console may not be the winner"

[TreVader]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2013/11/08/ps4-vs-xbox-one-social-media-winner/

 

[purbeast0]

the whole concept of a console "winning" is just stupid in concept and nothing more than fanboys trying to justify their purchase.

 

[smackababy]

the whole concept of a console "winning" is just stupid in concept and nothing more than fanboys trying to justify their purchase.

Both consoles will "win" in the sense they will sell more units than the R&D, production, marketing, and distribution costs related to each.

 

[TreVader]

the whole concept of a console "winning" is just stupid in concept and nothing more than fanboys trying to justify their purchase.

Are you suggesting that the employees of Forbes magazine are fanboys?



This is a market analysis. The winner is the one with more market share come december 26th

 

[TreVader]

Both consoles will "win" in the sense they will sell more units than the R&D, production, marketing, and distribution costs related to each.

Actually, Sony loses something like $80 on each PS4 it sells. They will, however, recoup they're losses almost immediately through sales of peripherals and subscriptions to SO.

 

[Midwayman]

They will both sell every console they have available to sell through the holidays. Who 'wins' this holiday will be determined by supply, not by social media.

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

The winners are the suits that will be filling tax sheltered bank accounts with ungodly amounts of money while the fanboys argue about why their$400 console is the bestest.

 

[purbeast0]

Are you suggesting that the employees of Forbes magazine are fanboys?



This is a market analysis. The winner is the one with more market share come december 26th

yeah i'm sure the loser of the 2 who will be banking in a trillion gazillion dollars as well is really going to care what the fanboys think of the "losing" console.

 

[TreVader]

They will both sell every console they have available to sell through the holidays. Who 'wins' this holiday will be determined by supply, not by social media.

Unlikely. Its very possible they will have gone into full production by the 25th and that they'll be able to meet demand. I believe that's the reason why MS is waiting a week. They are going to release substantially more on launch day than Sony, who will end up upsetting people with the scarcity of the item.



There is a big downside if you release a product before you have enough supply. A substantial amount of people are going to be turned off and just go buy an xbox if they are available a week later.

 

[TreVader]

yeah i'm sure the loser of the 2 who will be banking in a trillion gazillion dollars as well is really going to care what the fanboys think of the "losing" console.

Apparently you don't know much about business. Sony and MS very much care who will be banking more $.

 

[KeithTalent]

It's an interesting article, but in many ways it feels the same as Nielsen adding Twitter to their ratings matrix. Sure, it counts the number of people discussing the show online, but it has little real bearing on who is watching, it's just picking up those talking about it and grabbing some keywords.

Also, while I am very intrigued by what Valve is trying to do, I find it very hard to believe that their "console" will have any actual impact on the overall market, at least compared to what Microsoft and Sony's numbers.

I do wonder what kind of impact the price difference will have on sales, if any.

KT

 

[smackababy]

I do wonder what kind of impact the price difference will have on sales, if any.

KT

Launch day sales: none. Both will sell through. And if production isn't high, each will continue. However, I believe MS and Sony both will be trying to produce as many consoles as humanly possible.


I am guess around 1,000,000 for each for launch week. End of holiday, I think the Xbox One will have a slight edge due to the more big name launch titles. After that, I think the PS4 will gain momentum and hold the lead and Halo will catch the Xbox One up enough. It will be a relative tie from then on out. 50/50 split, plus or minus 5% depending on what is being released at the time.

I think Sony will have the world wide edge and MS will have much more in America and the UK.

 

[exdeath]

They are going to release substantially more on launch day than Sony, who will end up upsetting people with the scarcity of the item.

Nintendo Wii would like a word with you...

Scarcity to the average consumer just means "more popular" and makes them want it even more.

Wii was pretty much unavailable for the first year it launched, but still ended up destroying Sony and MS in sales.

There is much evidence that the scarcity of the Wii was even engineered and artificial, in order to drive up interest. Nintendo essentially sacrificed short term initial sales for long term interest and contributed to making the Wii seem like the next hard to get trendy "gotta have it" iAppliance.

 

[TreVader]

It's an interesting article, but in many ways it feels the same as Nielsen adding Twitter to their ratings matrix. Sure, it counts the number of people discussing the show online, but it has little real bearing on who is watching, it's just picking up those talking about it and grabbing some keywords.

Also, while I am very intrigued by what Valve is trying to do, I find it very hard to believe that their "console" will have any actual impact on the overall market, at least compared to what Microsoft and Sony's numbers.

I do wonder what kind of impact the price difference will have on sales, if any.

KT

I also didn't really understand how valve's entrance tips the scales in favor of MS, unless for some reason people who would normally buy a PS4 are more prone to buying a Steambox vs People who would normally buy an Xbox One.

I do think that although Sonys fans are more vocal, there are a ton of people that just really don't care about this specs war and are going to buy based on what they hear in the media.

I don't know if anybody else has noticed it, but people refer to Xbox as the default console when they talk about consoles in a general sense. What I mean is, if my mom were to name a console, she would name Xbox not because she has any experience with the console and I never owned one when I lived with my parents back in 2003 but because it's all over the media.

I just think there is more brand name exposure to Non-gamers with xbox than PS.

 

[nitromullet]

They will both sell every console they have available to sell through the holidays. Who 'wins' this holiday will be determined by supply, not by social media.

Agreed. I thought the mention of last minute shoppers in the article was a little odd. I don't think these consoles are just going to be languishing on shelves for people to pick up at the last minute.

I also don't think that they will be able to declare a winner this year anyway. Personally, I'm in the 'wait and see' category, as I think a lot pf people.

Hopefully, if the competition actually heats up MS will stop trying to shoehorn the Kinnect onto gamers that don't want it, and come out with a cheaper Kinnectless version.

 

[smackababy]

Nintendo Wii would like a word with you...

You believe people were not upset with the Wii not being available for months? If there was an actual compete product, people would have purchased that. If the Kinect had been around then, and at the $350 price point, it would have slaughtered the Wii. The Wii had no competition at that point. The PS3 and Xbox were much more expensive and not for the demographic the Wii targeted.

 

[TreVader]

Nintendo Wii would like a word with you...

Scarcity to the average consumer just means "more popular" and makes them want it even more.

Wii was pretty much unavailable for the first year it launched, but still ended up destroying Sony and MS in sales.

Nintendo fans are fanatics, you have to be to have any faith in that company.


Nintendo will be lucky if it is still a hardware manufacturer in 2 years, I wouldn't cite them as an example of great success in really any market beyond handhelds for kids under 14.

 

[smackababy]

Hopefully, if the competition actually heats up MS will stop trying to shoehorn the Kinnect onto gamers that don't want it, and come out with a cheaper Kinnectless version.

Never going to happen. Even with a cheaper, Kinect-less Xbox 360, they still sold 24 million Kinects. MS will drop the price, take a loss, and continue to include it before they segment their install base.

 

[Midwayman]

Unlikely. Its very possible they will have gone into full production by the 25th and that they'll be able to meet demand. I believe that's the reason why MS is waiting a week. They are going to release substantially more on launch day than Sony, who will end up upsetting people with the scarcity of the item.



There is a big downside if you release a product before you have enough supply. A substantial amount of people are going to be turned off and just go buy an xbox if they are available a week later.

You're making my point for me. Who wins will be determined by production. Unless you really think there are going to be piles of unsold consoles sitting around.....

 

[smackababy]

Nintendo will be lucky if it is still a hardware manufacturer in 2 years, I wouldn't cite them as an example of great success in really any market beyond handhelds for kids under 14.

Nintendo does one thing better than any company in the world, and that is sell handhelds. With the exception of the PS2, their handhelds are nearly double in sales over any console, while costing nearly the same.

Even if they no longer make consoles, they won't stop making handhelds.

 

[nitromullet]

Never going to happen. Even with a cheaper, Kinect-less Xbox 360, they still sold 24 million Kinects. MS will drop the price, take a loss, and continue to include it before they segment their install base.

Well, that's okay... I don't mind leaving the Kinnect in the box as long as I don't have to pay for it.

edit: that's also 24 million people that now know how useless the Kinnect really is. Everyone I know that has the Kinnect (which they bought separately as an addition to an existing Xbox 360) doesn't use it. Granted, my sample size is much smaller than 24 million, but I have yet to meet anyone that uses the Kinnect as MS intended. I think I've heard more about it being hacked/re-purposed for other things that I have as a peripheral for the Xbox.

 

[exdeath]

Nintendo does one thing better than any company in the world, and that is sell handhelds. With the exception of the PS2, their handhelds are nearly double in sales over any console, while costing nearly the same.

Even if they no longer make consoles, they won't stop making handhelds.

This. With DS, Pokemon, etc, and the success of the original Wii, they have enough money to burn to continue making failed home consoles for the next 5 generations.

 

[exdeath]

Nintendo will be lucky if it is still a hardware manufacturer in 2 years, I wouldn't cite them as an example of great success in really any market beyond handhelds for kids under 14.

I'm 34 and have around 80 DS games.

Most kids under 14 today don't even have the reading comprehension or philosophical understanding to really play and understand the full depth of the games I play beyond the simple fighting and action on the surface.

The Nintendo handhelds are only for little kids thing is a myth.

 

[TreVader]

You're making my point for me. Who wins will be determined by production. Unless you really think there are going to be piles of unsold consoles sitting around.....

If, for example, When XB1 goes on sale there is a far greater supply and few people get turned away, and everyone who wants one gets one, people who want a PS4 will just go buy an XB1. Then when PS4 finally meets its goals, they sit on the shelves.



I don't remember what exactly happened last gen, but in 2005 on christmas, I had a 360 and I sure as hell didn't pre-order one.

 

[TreVader]

Nintendo does one thing better than any company in the world, and that is sell handhelds. With the exception of the PS2, their handhelds are nearly double in sales over any console, while costing nearly the same.

Even if they no longer make consoles, they won't stop making handhelds.

I'm not arguing with that, but if they only sell handhelds then they lose a massive portion of both their functionality as a business and their marketshare in even the handheld business.


It spells their death.


I'm actually not sure why we're even discussing a company that was not mentioned once in the article. Waaay OT