For the investors out there, an interesting way to look at the Nasdaq levels... plus, make your prediction here

[glenn1]

From a poster on an investment BBS, discussing the Nasdaq composite index, which dropped below 2000 (again) today....

Last time we found support around the Civil War (American for you furners) but then dropped quickly through the Age of Enlightenment to briefly visit the Inquisition, before bouncing off the Civil War (English). Is Cromwell once more in our future? Hopefully not DaVinci or (God Forbid) William the Conquerer. Presently at a level of 1984, we are at the moment of George Orwell, Steven Jobs and Ronald Reagan.

Interesting way of looking at things. So, at what "date" do you think the Nasdaq is headed for next, Jetsons or Flintstones?

 

[mk52]

wait a week or so till the warning season is over and, it will stabilize a little. Assuming of course we dont get another warning like nortel, nokia or jdsu.

-MeliK

 

[HansHurt]

I predict the Nasdaq will hit 12,000 by July 1st.

 

[Demon-Xanth]

I think in about 7 months we'll be in 2002.

 

[Javelin]

I think the earnings will continue to be rough... back to the industrial revolution we go.

 

[colossus]

I predict Dow to go up or down in 2002

Seriously though, try to reason out why companies would or would not do well based on what you know. The media seems to indicate that most people for the last couple of years have slumped on PC sales because who really needs a 1.4GHz Pentium 4 to connect to AOL and send email. Most people, including myself, have been spending money on the gadgets around the PC like scanners, burners, mp3 players, speakers, digital cameras, optical mice, etc. That's pretty much the bulk of my Staples abuse

With that said, it's only a matter of time before Intel and AMD start seeing an increasing need for PC upgrades as all those PII and PIII and K6-3 get retired because people can't do video editing with their new digital camera. If you're willing to hold long term I would buy Intel/AMD or Applied.

You can see manufacturing is in a big slump as Solectron announced job cuts. If they thought this was temporary weakness they wouldn't have laid off 12K people! Even though unemployment and housing numbers remain ambiguous, the general economic indicators seem to show we're in a slump that will last for some time. Fortunately Asia's not hurting now, but Europe is. Basically we're repeating 1997 in a sense.

The one area that corporations need to spend on is Internet security. I personally prefer Symantec as a product and a stock pick. Others like Network Associates (McAffee).

Steel, copper, and aluminum manufacturing also look good over the next year since durable goods manufacturing seems to holding strong. Remember you need copper for those lovely DSL lines

 

[shifrbv]

colossus - an increasing need for PC upgrades as all those PII and PIII and K6-3 get retired

While home sales might be important for the PC market, the big bucks are with businesses upgrading. And right now, it's not happening. Most businesses don't need the fastest processor or the latest software to keep them going and they are starting to majorly scale back. The government has already froze spending for any new computers until next year. At that time, it might be frozen again. I suspect alot of other businesses are doing the same. This is going to hurt the technology sector bigtime and it's only just now starting to be felt.

I believe there will eventually be a recovery, but I'm skeptical that it's going to be sooner than later. At the beginning of this year, we were told that by the second half there would be a recovery. Now it's been pushed back to 2002. I'm betting that when 2002 gets here, it's going to be even further. A lot of people are seeing an end to the strong dollar around the beginning of next January. If this happens, it's going to be that much harder for US businesses to sell their products which will only delay a recovery even more.

 

[Pastore]

my prediction? hold tight until the end of the third quarter, then BUY BUY BUY, we are going to see a huge rally in the fourth quarter... everything will be coming well off its lows. BUT, dont buy any old stock, because not all tech stocks are going to be going back up... i would stay with your electric, commodities, precious metals, and retailers... some techs will be going back up, its just hard to say which ones right now...