All of the long term trends and fundraising trends favor the Democrats. The RNC might be outraising the DNC by a bit, but Obama and Hillary are demolishing McCain in fundraising on a scale the like of which has never been seen in any presidential election. In February the two Democratic candidates together raised something over $80 million. McCain raised $12 million (if I remember right). They are outraising him by over 6 to 1. You know that every republican strategist crapped their pants when they read those numbers. McCain having shored up the nomination 9 months before the election and having the Democratic nominee shore it up 7 months before or so will not be a meaningful distinction. Everyone wants to make predictions now because they are interested, but they don't seem to realize that their predictions mean shit. You cannot predict election returns that will likely differ by 5% or less 9 months in advance. Not possible. Trends strongly favor a Democratic win, but it's far from certain... there's just too much time in between now and then.
That is precisely what the Republicans are doing, which is a wise decision. They are saving all their ammo for when it counts.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
The last election taught us that the democrats are never a shoe-in. When we combine their propensity to screw up along with the replete and unending idiocy of people who are wholly sworn to be teased by the demagogery of the republican machine, there is always a great concern that, no matter what happens, the democrats can lose.
It doesn't matter. Fully 1/3rd of the population approves of bush and thus this same population have to be convinced of NOTHING. They have already decided to vote for mccain. They cannot be bargained with, reasoned with, they will not switch from the republicans no matter what happens.
With all due respect, GT, don't marry that girl, for real
Yep, and since many's understanding of economics goes no further than their tax rate, they equate increased taxes to being worse off and will vote against it. It doesn't matter that their party engages in spend and borrow at blinding rates and are complict in the destruction of the dollar. They don't care. Deficits and national debt mean nothing. They'd rather get a tax break of $500 and make toilet paper money than no tax break but their dollar isn't approaching the peso. To them taxes are all that matter.
Fern
Elite Member
- Sep 30, 2003
- 26,907
- 173
- 106
I'm starting to think it's a possibility.
The black vs women thing, or the super delegates overruling the voters both have the potential to cause real problems in the general election IMO. Lately the "faces" put forth by the Dems are not moderates, but seem more like party extremist to me.
And then there's the whole MI & FL primary thing. While I tend to discount that issue, it certainly doesn't reflect well on the Dem party. The trend is not good, but there's a long way to go til the gen election.
Fern
This post is amazing. It's as if you were trying your best to not make any point or have any substance. Could you point out where Obama was blaming Whitey or do you believe that racial equality has been realized at this point?
I don't see how he's a fake African American anymore than he's a fake white American. Your blatant assumptions based on your stereotypical beliefs of minorities truly shines through in your last sentence. That truly takes the cake. You truly win on the internet.
Bullshit. Obama wasn't talking race until his opponents forced the race card.
You think Obama's speech was racist? Pot. Kettle. Black.
He's talking about "legacy of discrimination" and that racism is still a huge problem in this country. IT IS NOT. America is the LEAST racist country in the world. Yes, there may be some individual racists (in fact blacks are the most racist group of people IMO), but the country itself is not racist (as it was in the past). And to fabricate this "problem" as a real issue and asking America to fix something that doesn't exist is the worst type of political whoreage.
Racial stalemate? What the hell is he talking about? Anger is real? What is he trying to do? Is he trying to incite anger?
It's ironic that the Champions of "equality" the democratic party are the ones being racist fighting to either put a black man or a woman as the nomination.
The person I see in Obama is someone who is resentful that blacks are still socioeconomically low but instead of self reflecting and realizing it's the community itself that is the problem, he is blaming government and white people. Puhlease bitch, Asian immigrants come here with nothing and they have the highest average wage of all races. It's called hard work and perseverance, not race baiting and entitlement hunting.
Right now, the spotlight is on Senator Obama and Senator Clinton. We are deciding who will get the nomination.
Once that is settled and people see the Dem nominee vs McCain, the focus will be different.
A lot can happen between now and November. I'm not certain a Dem will win the White House, but I wouldn't be so quick to say they will lose.
Once that is settled and people see the Dem nominee vs McCain, the focus will be different.
A lot can happen between now and November. I'm not certain a Dem will win the White House, but I wouldn't be so quick to say they will lose.
Fern
Elite Member
- Sep 30, 2003
- 26,907
- 173
- 106
I didn't get that bit from the excerpts I saw. Rather, I thought he was explaining about how many black felt about it. That some (older) black people still harbor bitterness and resentment from treatment back in the 60's etc.
He also made the case about how some whites harbor bitterness and resentment from things like affirmative action and the like.
I didn't hear him say he supports those views (to the contrary actually), but rather he is honestly (and at some risk) just bringing them out into the open.
In all the recent discussion around here about this matter, unless I missed it, no one has brought up what I think a very important and over-looked point - the idea that HIV was invented by white men, we brought 911 upon ourselves, drugs are being allowed into inner cities to destroy young black people - these are not "fringe" beliefs among the black population.
Further, hearing political coment in black churches in not uncommom either. It's long been recognized that black churches are the foundation of the black political network. Every candidate that comes down South (where there is a sizable black population) campaigns in black churches. Hey, it ain't by mere coincident that most black political leaders have the word "Reverand" in front of their names (ML King, J Jackson, Al Sharpton).
I thought it a pretty courageous speech. He shined a spotlight on some problems most would rather bury in an effort to move past. Not so long ago, many were looking at Obama's success in the campaign and patting ourselves on the back for having moved past race. Yup, and it just came roaring back in a very naked and brutal way.
Im starting to feel some empathy for the guy, as a man with a foot planted on each side of the cultrual divide he is forced to take a measure of how wide that gulf is between the two. And looks to me like each side wants him to come to them, and denounce the other. He can no more do that than split himself in two.
Fern
Unfortunately republicans as of late have not been following what they believe in. Lower spending and taxes goes hand in hand. Most blame would have to be on congress, but a strong president can whip them into shape.
With how strong McCain is on wasteful spending, I'm regaining hope in fiscal conservatism coming back.
Surely not. My government swears to me that we can have our cake and eat it too.
Americans are qutie convinced that we'll never be poor enough to starve, no matter what. And with bizarre tax refunds and corporate bailouts, the fed makes it true.
Before the Wright-Obama controversy:
link
SUSA:
3/6/08
Ohio:
Obama 50%
McCain 40%
Clinton 50%
McCain 40%
Missouri ( a state that Obama was supposed to compete against McCain in)
Obama 42%
McCain 48%
Clinton 44%
McCain 48%
Kentucky
Obama 33%
McCain 54%
Clinton 41%
McCain 50%
3/19/08
Ohio
Obama 43%
McCain 50%
Clinton 50%
McCain 44%
Missouri
Obama 39%
McCain 53%
Clinton 46%
McCain 48%
Kentucky:
Obama 28%
McCain 64%
Clinton 43%
McCain 53%
Terrible baseline numbers for Obama. We will see if he can rebound from his Wright problems. These polls were taken after the videos but before Obama's speech. Look for other polls in states such as NJ, MA, etc later. We will see the full impact of the Wright controversy if Obama continues to be weak or if he rebound.
link
SUSA:
3/6/08
Ohio:
Obama 50%
McCain 40%
Clinton 50%
McCain 40%
Missouri ( a state that Obama was supposed to compete against McCain in)
Obama 42%
McCain 48%
Clinton 44%
McCain 48%
Kentucky
Obama 33%
McCain 54%
Clinton 41%
McCain 50%
3/19/08
Ohio
Obama 43%
McCain 50%
Clinton 50%
McCain 44%
Missouri
Obama 39%
McCain 53%
Clinton 46%
McCain 48%
Kentucky:
Obama 28%
McCain 64%
Clinton 43%
McCain 53%
Terrible baseline numbers for Obama. We will see if he can rebound from his Wright problems. These polls were taken after the videos but before Obama's speech. Look for other polls in states such as NJ, MA, etc later. We will see the full impact of the Wright controversy if Obama continues to be weak or if he rebound.
"the seldom reported story is that the RNC is smashing the DNC in fundraising."
Because according to everything I've read the complete opposite is true. Everything I've read says the repubs are having a hard time raising money and the dems are having a field day with fundraising. Do you have a reputable link with some numbers that shows otherwise? Would be interesting to see it.
Because according to everything I've read the complete opposite is true. Everything I've read says the repubs are having a hard time raising money and the dems are having a field day with fundraising. Do you have a reputable link with some numbers that shows otherwise? Would be interesting to see it.
You've basically went on a rant about your opinions and stereotypes.
Of course racism isn't as bad as it used to be. No one is debating this. But to turn a blind eye to the fact that there is still a huge level of inequality whether it be in the workplace or in the average person's minds (eg. your comment that black people are actually the most racist) is disingenuous. Obama argues for more activism in achieving racial equality and he makes a statement that he understands where the anger stems from. None of these statements describe an incitement to racial hatred and division. It encourages discussion into other people's thoughts and feelings about this subject because without open discussion, the topic will eventually be buried under the auspice of it being a burden.
You also understand very little about Asian immigrants. Many of the immigrants that are being polled come from countries that have a strong backbone in education and wealth. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and more recently China all have a strong educational system that enables many of those immigrants to come to the US and earn this high living wage. All you would need to do is look at poorer Asian countries and their immigrants to even have a remote idea of the nonsense you're spouting.
Have you been to Westminster, CA? Garden Grove, CA? Monterey Park, CA? I quick look at the economic status of many of these Asian immigrants will show that not all Asians are as well off as you think. The model minority has changed over time (mainly through stereotypes) from the Jewish to the Asians but this creates the impression that all Asians are well off when it's obviously not the case. Ask Vietnamese immigrants (who work just as hard) how difficult it is for them to pull themselves up through the economic ladder.
African Americans, on the other hand, are often born into poorer areas with poor education, lack of access to jobs, and high crime rates. If you don't believe that this has a major effect on the speed a group of people can advance economically then you are blind and we need not spend any more time discussing the issue with each other. You're comparing a group of people whose infrastructure and background is completely different than that of Asians. It should be simple enough for you to see that minority groups, though all named as minorities, are not directly comparable.
jonks
Lifer
- Feb 7, 2005
- 13,918
- 20
- 81
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/money/dems.html
Seems the RNC is beating the DNC, but that's only because people are giving so much to Hillary and Obama! Look at those numbers!
That's amazing. Obama raised almost as much money in ONE MONTH as McCain has total. This is a fundraising blowout of epic proportions.
I think the facts are that he is racially whole and united, an integrated happy and wise man who has answered the racial divide within him. It's the assholes who are racists on both sides that want him to be torn apart. I won't happen. America's future will lose, not Obama. Obama is at peace in his brown skin. He is tomorrow's man as well as Abraham Lincoln.
African Americans have WAY more opportunity than asian immigrants. They speak english and have welfare money on their back while asian immigrants can't speak english and have to resort to money pools/clubs. Being born black and poor is like a golden ticket to a free ride up the academic ladder (through scholarships and affirmative action) and into corporate ladders (diversity initiatives). The difference between poor blacks and poor asians is the culture. Asian culture is STRONG family and push your children's education. There are PLENTY of 2nd generation and 1.5 generation sons of 1st generation POOR IMMIGRANTS who scrimp and save and beat their children to study and are now successful. Yet the black community generation after generation are not able to rise out of poverty while in asian community poverty does not pass more than 1 generation.
Yes, I have been to Westminster, Garden Grove, Monterey Park, CA. They live very modestly and some are ghetto. But in 1 generation at most 2, their sons will be in a better place. It's a starting ground for the first gen immigrants. Some of them get lucky, others don't. But almost all of them are successful in instilling good values into their children who almost all go on to get higher education.
Fine write off the asians. How about poor black individuals who break from the cultural norm and rise above? Blacks like Bill Cosby point this out - the problem is WITHIN. But he is rejected because it's easier to blame others and use it as a political tool to gain power. You want CHANGE? Fine, instead of having the government help you, go help yourself!
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