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for risk takers: Why pay TAX?

H

hoihtah

Diamond Member
i know with the big game's jackpot at over 300mil...
lot of people are testing their luck.
1 in 76mil odd.

even at a casino... your best chance at winning is blackjack at around 49%.
and many familes have been broken apart at taking that chance.

with tax... it's 75% chance of winning. 🙂
only 1/4 of taxpayers get audited.

of course, unless the country owes you money...
why not take that chance?

besides the fact that you can go to jail for not filing. 🙂

perhaps it's cause i don't fully understand the whole process of auditing...
but it seems like a good odd to bank on. 😉
 
only 1/4 of taxpayers get audited.


huh? Only like .5% of people get audited, and I think that might even be high.


even at a casino... your best chance at winning is blackjack at around 49%.

Play online with a bonus for better odds. 🙂 You can get nearly guaranteed money if you utilize bonuses. 🙂
 
lot's of people take chances with their taxes (ie cheat or fib) not filing at all would be suicide though.
 
I wouldn't count on going to jail necesarily. If you get caught and you owe, they'll charge you the amount PLUS penalties PLUS interest. You wouldn't get off easy with jail time.
 
i'm not an expert so i'm not sure, but i thought you went to jail for not paying your taxes. I don't believe you can go to jail for not filing if you don't owe the government anything.
 
You aren't taking into account how many people get caught without an audit.

All your W-2 income, interest income, dividend income, stock sales, miscellaneous income and mortgage interest is already reported directly to the IRS. All they have to do is match it up with what your reported on your tax return. Forget something? Cheat on the numbers? Wham! Here's your tax bill.

And they never had to even audit you. The computer spits out the list.
 


<< even at a casino... your best chance at winning is blackjack at around 49%.
and many familes have been broken apart at taking that chance.
 >>



Actually, it's roulette that gives you the best chance of winning if you bet red or black. Very close to even.

I don't know if anyone's actually done a study on this, but I don't think your chances of winning at blackjack are even close to 49% because of the fact that you are playing your hand before the dealer has to play his.
 


<< i thought only 25% gets audited... no? >>



Only 25%? You're about 20 times too high. The number, combining small businesses and individuals, is about 1.25%.

Russ, NCNE

 


<< i'm not an expert so i'm not sure, but i thought you went to jail for not paying your taxes. I don't believe you can go to jail for not filing if you don't owe the government anything. >>

AFAIK if you owe nothing you don't have to file. Is this true?

Anyway chances are good they'll catch you. For some people they don't want to take the country for a ride and they rightfully feel they should pay some taxes. For those who don't care about this you will get caught and it will suck.
 


<<

<< even at a casino... your best chance at winning is blackjack at around 49%.
and many familes have been broken apart at taking that chance.
 >>



Actually, it's roulette that gives you the best chance of winning if you bet red or black. Very close to even.

I don't know if anyone's actually done a study on this, but I don't think your chances of winning at blackjack are even close to 49% because of the fact that you are playing your hand before the dealer has to play his. >>



i'm pretty sure that overall winning chances of blackjack is around 49%.

i'll try to find something on the web on this.

-----------------

if it is 20x less than what i said...
doesn't it just go to prove my point all the more?
thanx for those figures.
 


<<
i'm pretty sure that overall winning chances of blackjack is around 49%.

i'll try to find something on the web on this.
 >>



Please do... I'd be pretty interested in what the number is and how they managed to come up with that number...
 


<<

<< i'm not an expert so i'm not sure, but i thought you went to jail for not paying your taxes. I don't believe you can go to jail for not filing if you don't owe the government anything. >>

AFAIK if you owe nothing you don't have to file. Is this true?

Anyway chances are good they'll catch you. For some people they don't want to take the country for a ride and they rightfully feel they should pay some taxes. For those who don't care about this you will get caught and it will suck. >>



why do you say that the chances are good?
if russ' figures are correct.. .then you have over 98% chance of not getting caught.
no?

of course, i'm not endorsing these sort of illegal activity.
but there are lots of people that waste money of gambling and lotteries...
while they may be legal, the odds are really against them.
so... all i'm saying is, for the risk takers... with these incredible odds, why not gamble with taxes?
 
An audit is not them catching you for not filing taxes. An audit is when the IRS will require that you have proof of everything you claim on your taxes, and they will check on it. It is basically a formal check on someone's accounts. They say audits are random, and usually they are because they can't sit down and physically go over millions of tax forms by hand. But usually if they have a suspicion that you missreported something, they can choose to audit you (if some "red flag" gets thrown by a computer). Audits are determined from tax filings they receive, so if you don't file, they can't exactly audit you, can they?

People who don't file will eventually get caught, especially if they owe money. Of course, if you are paid completely off the books, they have no record of you working at all. If you receive a paycheck from a company, then the IRS already has record of everything you made (at that partcular job) and how much you paid the government. So they can easily check to see if you owe and don't file.

You seem to be misunderstanding exactly what an audit is. If my explanation is not enough, I would suggest looking up exactly what a tax audit is.
 
the whole table working together against the dealer is probably the best odds in the house. but that rarely happens, so the house wins.
 


<<

<< even at a casino... your best chance at winning is blackjack at around 49%.
and many familes have been broken apart at taking that chance.
 >>



Actually, it's roulette that gives you the best chance of winning if you bet red or black. Very close to even.

I don't know if anyone's actually done a study on this, but I don't think your chances of winning at blackjack are even close to 49% because of the fact that you are playing your hand before the dealer has to play his. >>




I promise you, its not roulette. If there was no 0 or 00, then it would be a 50/50 shot, but taking into account those, that (partially) where the house edge comes into play, especially if you're betting black/red.

BJ is where professional players can make money. You cant do that in roulette. There are only a few dozen folks who can do it (and even less who aren't barred from most casinos), but if you know advanced card counting you can make a killing off BJ if you can withstand the variance of losing 5-10K/day. The actual house edge on BJ varies depending on a number of adjustable rules, but it can vary from .2% to ~.5% or so. Thats only if you play perfect strategy and dont play any "hunches". Of course, most people dont know basic strategy or dont have the disicpline to do it.
 
House only has about a ~1.4% advantage if you play Craps (Pass Line I believe), and you don't even need to count cards or have any sort of strategy.
 
Becuase the IRS takes their cut out before it even gets to you?

I was just watching CNN, and it said .56% of personal income returns were audited. There were 127 mi. that filled last year, with 69 mil getting a CPA or another person to fill the form out, 40 mil itemized deductions, and 93 mil. returns. Also the average return was $2,367.
 


<< Why pay TAX? >>



Ahhhhh the famous last words of people as the IRS auctions off their wordly goods to bargain hunters.
 
You're missing the point - just because 1% of people are audited does not mean you have a 99% chance of getting away with it.

Many people who did it legitly are audited like my mother two years in a row for weird claims. If your return is clearly weird there is a much much higher chance of being audited.
 


<< House only has about a ~1.4% advantage if you play Craps (Pass Line I believe), and you don't even need to count cards or have any sort of strategy. >>



You need to play the Don't Pass.

What you people don't realize is that even if it's a fraction of a percent advantage for the casino, it is a fraction of a percent per roll of the dice, blackjack hand, or roullette wheel spin. i.e., the more you play, the less your chance of winning is.

Also, the IRS may only audit a small percentage of people, but the most people file an honest tax form. If you make 100 K and deduct 75 K for business expenses, there is a damn good chance you'll get audited.
 
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