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football stats/betting question

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LS21

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just trying to gauge how insightful the press/commentators are, and how accurate popular vegas predictions are


-if you had picked the favored team straight-up in every match up this season, what would be your record? (espn guys are about 165-90)

-what is the cumulative difference between the betting spread and actual outcome of all the regular season games?

has any betting line kept records of this? (sherridan, bodog, vegas, usa today, etc)
 
Vegas spreads are not meant to be "accurate" predictors of scoring outcome. They are set by the bookies such that roughly 50% of gamblers put their money on one side, and 50% put their money on the other side. When that happens, the house wins 10% profit with no risk.

Your questions are interesting though, I wouldn't mind seeing some sort of analysis on this.
 
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Vegas spreads are not meant to be "accurate" predictors of scoring outcome. They are set by the bookies such that roughly 50% of gamblers put their money on one side, and 50% put their money on the other side.
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so i would expect that they make the spread well enough such that , taken spread into account , it is 50/50 for the favorites... and their commisions buffers the actual outcome.. so up to 55/45 is still profitable.

and it follows then that on combined score ["over/under"] it would fluctuate a few points +/- every game so that perhaps they are off by <5 pts per game averaged

 
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Vegas spreads are not meant to be "accurate" predictors of scoring outcome. They are set by the bookies such that roughly 50% of gamblers put their money on one side, and 50% put their money on the other side. When that happens, the house wins 10% profit with no risk.

Your questions are interesting though, I wouldn't mind seeing some sort of analysis on this.
Click to expand...

It might be difficult. I thought the different places sometimes vary in lines? I've seen point spreads change 3-4 times before the game starts. Could just be the house adjusting based on betting.
 
Originally posted by: spidey07
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Vegas spreads are not meant to be "accurate" predictors of scoring outcome. They are set by the bookies such that roughly 50% of gamblers put their money on one side, and 50% put their money on the other side. When that happens, the house wins 10% profit with no risk.

Your questions are interesting though, I wouldn't mind seeing some sort of analysis on this.
Click to expand...

It might be difficult. I thought the different places sometimes vary in lines? I've seen point spreads change 3-4 times before the game starts. Could just be the house adjusting based on betting.
Click to expand...

The variation from place to place is usually small, typically 1/2 to 1 point. The spreads change according to how much money is being bet on each side and/or news concerning the game (injuries, weather, etc).

About the only trend I see consistently mentioned is that home underdogs are typically a good bet. From what I've read, the home field in the NFL has lately meant less than it did in the past, so go figure.
 
Originally posted by: LS21
just trying to gauge how insightful the press/commentators are, and how accurate popular vegas predictions are


-if you had picked the favored team straight-up in every match up this season, what would be your record? (espn guys are about 165-90)
Click to expand...

I don't have the answer to your question, but I would like to point out that even if you won over 50% of your straight up bets, you can still find yourself in the hole. The reason is because in a straight up (aka money line) bet, if you take the favorite, you are laying down a lot to win a little. It's not uncommon for a juggernaut to be 6:1 favorites in a game. That means losing that bets basically counts as 6 losses.

-what is the cumulative difference between the betting spread and actual outcome of all the regular season games?

has any betting line kept records of this? (sherridan, bodog, vegas, usa today, etc)
Click to expand...
[/quote]

There are services that you can pay for that keep track of stuff like this. For the most part, if you want this type of advanced betting statistics, you will have to either pay or keep track of it yourself. Sports books aren't in the business of providing you more information than they need to.
 
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