I would disagree with the "more testing, more cases" theory that people use. That is, unless most states are doing random testing that I don't know about.
My understanding is that most states are just testing on demand. If that's true then there are not more cases due to more tests. If stars aren't really random or population testing then they're likely mostly testing people have reason to believe they need to be tested or present with symptoms.
The figure that we need to pay attention to is percentage of positivity in the testing. It identifies community spread. Higher means community spread, lower means it is under control. I think you want to be below 3%.
Just take Florida, in May the State was at 2.3% positive, although testing levels where lower than today. Today, with the higher test levels, still not at where they need to be, the positivity rate is ranging from about 10% to almost 20%. The same for a Texas and Arizona. Even if the increased number of cases identified through more testing are asymptomatic, the more who get it, the more it spreads, the more damage and the longer it is around.
If the hospitalization rate is 8%, then this will increase the number of hospitalizations just from the shear numbers. Fatality will react similarly. There is evidence now that immunity from antibodies is short and you can get it twice. This is typical with a novel outbreak.
People who believe it is “just another seasonal flu” can get evidence of it being not that “severe” and those who understand cannot contradict them because data is not available. Data is starting to emerge that tells us this is a serious thing that has some longer-term impacts.
If there is going to be waves, like when you are at the beach, there must be a peak followed by a trough followed by another peak. Europe, Asia, Africa are past the first wave. Evidenced by the graphs that show a peak followed by a trough with cases significantly lower than the peak.
The US, Mexico, Russia and Brazil are still dealing with the original outbreak. The heat does not impact it, as it is a very contagious virus, especially indoors at bars, restaurants, rallies, etc. Outside is a different story since it dies quickly in the UV and the wind disperses it better.
The trend line points to a situation in the fall where the seasonal flu and this will be very active. This is a very serious thing. Imagine getting this and the flu simultaneously. If 120,000 died in the US and we were shut down for two months, image the possibility when an annual event that kills 50,000 over six months is coupled with this.
Maybe this is what was meant when “American Carnage” was mention during the inauguration.
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