First the Kindle Fire, and now the Kindle Phone?

[lothar]

PagePlus has introduced a plan with a 2gb data offering on their top tier last year. They have also increased their data allotments on the TnT plans (although not by terribly much, but still they have) over the last year.

On the other hand, ST just recently started allowing BYOD and SmartPhones to use that 2gb on, whereas PagePlus has essentially from day 1. 2gb of data doesn't do crap for you on a feature phone.



You're missing the point. Amazon won't ask VZW or AT&T to carry a subsidized phone. They're going to provide a subsidized MVNO service and sell one and only one device (well maybe more than one, maybe 2 or so models) directly to customers. These devices won't be offered by VZW or AT&T, they won't be "allowed" on VZW's or AT&T's 'network' (except maybe as BYOD, which Amazon wouldn't care terribly much about).

I never said Bezos would actually buy Sprint or TMo - but the threat of it to get a favorable MVNO contract is a shrewd tool to have in his back pocket and it is an acceptable plan B in my opinion.

And as I just pointed out, if Amazon goes the MVNO route, there's absolutely NO reason, need or way they'll even offer their phone to the incumbent carrier post-paid market. For starters, they wouldn't need to.

Umm...ST has been allowing BYOD from day 1. It's just that they never advertised it as such. Just because they never advertised it doesn't mean they didn't accept it. People have been buying the Nokia E71 from ST for years and swapping the activated "P" sim with an AT&T or T-Mobile phone. How do you think I've been using my International Galaxy S II with them? I never bought any special BYOD plan or sim. This isn't something that started recently either. 2GB data plans has always been available for many years using that trick.

The problem with that again is not many people in America use prepaid.
Do you really think Kindle phone will sell 3-5 million units in the US prepaid market?
How many people do I know in "real" life using prepaid? Zero. Everybody I know is with the 4 major carriers(Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, or T-Mobile), with a few broke people using crap phones from Cricket. I am the only one that uses prepaid. Now on the internet, sure I know lots of people that use prepaid here on Anandtech, XDA, etc...That doesn't translate into the real world though.

If I was the Verizon CEO and you attempted to do that, I'll call your bluff.
Sprint hasn't made a profit in many years, and they won't make one until 2014-2015 at the earliest. Go ahead and acquire them if you want.
Given Deutsche Telecom tried to unload T-Mobile to AT&T for $36 billion, I don't think they're cheap either.

Did the Optimus S, Motorola Triumph, and Samsung Precinct break any sales record on the US prepaid market? I don't remember any of these phones selling millions of units.

 

[lothar]

Also, you can be sure that if Amazon ever sells more than 3-5 million of these, Apple could show them their wrath of frivolous patents like they've already successfully done to HTC, Motorola, and Samsung.
What does Amazon plan to do about that?

 

[SunnyD]

Umm...ST has been allowing BYOD from day 1. It's just that they never advertised it as such. Just because they never advertised it doesn't mean they didn't accept it. People have been buying the Nokia E71 from ST for years and swapping the activated "P" sim with an AT&T or T-Mobile phone. How do you think I've been using my International Galaxy S II with them? I never bought any special BYOD plan or sim. This isn't something that started recently either. 2GB data plans has always been available for many years using that trick.

The problem with that again is not many people in America use prepaid.
Do you really think Kindle phone will sell 3-5 million units in the US prepaid market?
How many people do I know in "real" life using prepaid? Zero. Everybody I know is with the 4 major carriers(Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, or T-Mobile), with a few broke people using crap phones from Cricket. I am the only one that uses prepaid. Now on the internet, sure I know lots of people that use prepaid here on Anandtech, XDA, etc...That doesn't translate into the real world though.

If I was the Verizon CEO and you attempted to do that, I'll call your bluff.
Sprint hasn't made a profit in many years, and they won't make one until 2014-2015 at the earliest. Go ahead and acquire them if you want.
Given Deutsche Telecom tried to unload T-Mobile to AT&T for $36 billion, I don't think they're cheap either.

Did the Optimus S, Motorola Triumph, and Samsung Precinct break any sales record on the US prepaid market? I don't remember any of these phones selling millions of units.

I really don't want to get into some sort of e-fight with you about you trying to validate your position on this. Points anyway:

- ST's E71 "trick" hasn't been available since forever, and more importantly only in some markets. And it's certainly not a true BYOD option, but a hack. Go ahead, sell that E71 afterwards and see what happens to your plan. More to the point, true BYOD prepaid plans (that don't suck and/or are disruptive or competitively affordable) have only JUST recently come to the market. I'm talking about BYOD plans that don't require you to jump through hoops to get on and use with your phone of choice.

- US Prepaid market is nowhere near the Euro prepaid market, very true. But customers are waking up, as evident by a 36% growth of the prepaid subscriber market last year. If you don't think this next year's growth won't be even bigger as more options, word-of-mouth advertising and savings knowledge spreads, you're delusional. It may not be reaching critical mass yet to start eroding post-paid market share to worrisome levels for another few year, but THIS is exactly why the time is right for someone like Amazon to make a play like this before the incumbents realize what's at stake.

- I can't speculate how many phones anyone will sell. The only thing I know is that the people I know on post-paid plans with the big four remain on post-paid plans on the big four because there are no real competitive alternative options any other way. Some of them I run their numbers, and I can show them how to save $20 or $30 a month by switching to a prepaid option and they consider it, but up until that point they don't even know those options exist. This is why a company like Amazon getting into the mix would be a game changer - rather than some unknown that nobody has or ever will hear of. Amazon will make the hardware affordable, and they will make the service affordable so they can push the subscription to the masses.

Also, you can be sure that if Amazon ever sells more than 3-5 million of these, Apple could show them their wrath of frivolous patents like they've already successfully done to HTC, Motorola, and Samsung.
What does Amazon plan to do about that?

That's why everything is point to Amazon looking to buy into the business and acquire a portfolio of patents.

 

[soccerballtux]

kindle fire wasn't very refined (still had the same silly keyboard buggyness that plagues gingerbread), I expect same from the phone. However, phone makes more sense than tablet for Amazon. If they could integrate MP3 buying I'd be more interested.

 

[soccerballtux]

I really don't want to get into some sort of e-fight with you about you trying to validate your position on this. Points anyway:

- ST's E71 "trick" hasn't been available since forever, and more importantly only in some markets. And it's certainly not a true BYOD option, but a hack. Go ahead, sell that E71 afterwards and see what happens to your plan. More to the point, true BYOD prepaid plans (that don't suck and/or are disruptive or competitively affordable) have only JUST recently come to the market. I'm talking about BYOD plans that don't require you to jump through hoops to get on and use with your phone of choice.

- US Prepaid market is nowhere near the Euro prepaid market, very true. But customers are waking up, as evident by a 36% growth of the prepaid subscriber market last year. If you don't think this next year's growth won't be even bigger as more options, word-of-mouth advertising and savings knowledge spreads, you're delusional. It may not be reaching critical mass yet to start eroding post-paid market share to worrisome levels for another few year, but THIS is exactly why the time is right for someone like Amazon to make a play like this before the incumbents realize what's at stake.

- I can't speculate how many phones anyone will sell. The only thing I know is that the people I know on post-paid plans with the big four remain on post-paid plans on the big four because there are no real competitive alternative options any other way. Some of them I run their numbers, and I can show them how to save $20 or $30 a month by switching to a prepaid option and they consider it, but up until that point they don't even know those options exist. This is why a company like Amazon getting into the mix would be a game changer - rather than some unknown that nobody has or ever will hear of. Amazon will make the hardware affordable, and they will make the service affordable so they can push the subscription to the masses.



That's why everything is point to Amazon looking to buy into the business and acquire a portfolio of patents.

it probably won't be a game changer. The phone will run on Sprint and be an unpolished turd.

Just saying, that's probably it.

 

[Chiropteran]

If they could integrate MP3 buying I'd be more interested.

Amazon mp3 app mean anything to you? Unless you mean something else, they have already integrated mp3 buying...

I think the idea that the prepaid market is growing fast is very true. I myself have been a strict verizon guy until recently, when I did the math and realized that even after paying $350 for a phone I'll be saving hundreds of dollars by using t-mobiles $30 month unlimited data 100 minutes plan. Verizon's new "share everything" plan just pushes me even harder to switch. At $50/month savings each month over a 2 year term that is $1200 total, or $600 a year. Even if I was a heavy cell phone user, and needed unlimited minutes, T-mobiles $50/month plan would be saving me $720 per 2 year term before phone cost. This is real savings.

The time is ripe for consumers as a whole to wake up and realize prepaid is a much better deal than any of the current contract scams.

 

[soccerballtux]

Amazon mp3 app mean anything to you? Unless you mean something else, they have already integrated mp3 buying...

I think the idea that the prepaid market is growing fast is very true. I myself have been a strict verizon guy until recently, when I did the math and realized that even after paying $350 for a phone I'll be saving hundreds of dollars by using t-mobiles $30 month unlimited data 100 minutes plan. Verizon's new "share everything" plan just pushes me even harder to switch. At $50/month savings each month over a 2 year term that is $1200 total, or $600 a year. Even if I was a heavy cell phone user, and needed unlimited minutes, T-mobiles $50/month plan would be saving me $720 per 2 year term before phone cost. This is real savings.

The time is ripe for consumers as a whole to wake up and realize prepaid is a much better deal than any of the current contract scams.

Yeah, but it's not the cleanest. Hoping better integration.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Ooh, what about an e-ink phone with Amazon-subsidized 3G just like on the 3G Kindle? You only have to pay for a voice plan and you get insane battery life.

I don't think it'll happen but it would be neat.

 

[O9O9O9]

The Kindle Fire was the first tablet to really give the iPad a run for its money. During the holiday season 2011, I believe the iPad shipped 15 million units and the Kindle Fire grabbed another 4.5 million (almost a third). Now, with the new $50/year data package with the Kindle Fire HDs? I could definitely see why Amazon is moving into smartphones...but Apple isn't the leader in the smartphone realm, Google is, so who knows.