Finally maybe a way out of the Iranian nuclear crisis.

[Lemon law]

Today and dealing with amounts to a middleman in the President of Turkey, President Obama offered to drop Iranian sanction in return for proof that Iran does not intend to develop nuclear weapons.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-...ept-civilian-nuclear-program-in-iran-1.423057

But obviously no one is prepared to take anyone's word for anything. But still the current Iranian ayatollah in Khamenei has always been on consistent record as saying nuclear weapons are incompatible with the principles of Islam. And its my understanding that the Iranian nuclear questions have even a longer history dating back to early in first term of GWB As ..............
(1) It was Iranian secular moderates in the Iranian legislature that conceived of a peace time nuclear program for generated electricity and electricity only for Iran. (2) That latter group of Iranian moderates were basically opposed by old line Iranian islamist conservatives like the Iranian national guard who in turn were allied with Achminejhad. (3) So both appealed to the head ayatollah in Khanenei, as Khamenei gave the moderates his permission to proceed with the offer to the Western world. (4) The Iranian moderate offer came complete with the real holy grail test of which nations can develop a real nuclear weapons program and which could not. Namely by offering the international community and not Iran itself control of the spent fuel rods. With no Iranian ability to extract the bred plutonium, Iran would have no real ability to become a nuclear weapons power in time scales of less than a century. (5) When Cheney received the offer he kicked the Iranian moderates in the teeth, as a result the very people in Iran we in the US hope to work with were discredited, Achmadejad and his faction won the next Iranian election.

Now that offer may come back on the table and hopefully a wiser world will accept the Iranian offer to let the international community to control Iranian spent fuel rods. As it is, its taken Iran 10 years to enrich enough U235 to the 20% level to fuel just one nuclear reactor.

Do your own math and figure it out. Especially when the Israeli breeder reactor at Dismona
breeds enough plutonium every two years to produce 6-10 plutonium based nuclear weapons.

 

[chucky2]

My own math concludes that it doesn't matter how many nuclear weapons Israel has because they'll never use them if they're not facing utter annihilation, and they're certainly not going to allow them/the material to fall into the wrong hands.

Given that, and given how batsh1t insane current Islamic society is over in the greater ME region, there is absolutely zero (this is a mathematical certainty) reason anyone would want Iran, or any other Islamic controlled country, to aquire a nuclear weapon(s) or the technology and/or ability to build one. That Pakistan has is already >= BI (Bad Idea).

End of math lesson.

 

[Lemon law]

My own math concludes that it doesn't matter how many nuclear weapons Israel has because they'll never use them if they're not facing utter annihilation, and they're certainly not going to allow them/the material to fall into the wrong hands.

Given that, and given how batsh1t insane current Islamic society is over in the greater ME region, there is absolutely zero (this is a mathematical certainty) reason anyone would want Iran, or any other Islamic controlled country, to aquire a nuclear weapon(s) or the technology and/or ability to build one. That Pakistan has is already >= BI (Bad Idea).

End of math lesson.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Somehow there is no math in chucky2's math lesson, but still the Pakistani nuclear program is a fait accompli, as was the India nuclear weapons program that almost required it. And in terms of Pakistan, it has discovered having a nuclear program has not made them invasion proof or threat proof.

Israel is somewhat the odd man out, as they went with a nuclear weapons program and had no need for it.

But Iran and Egypt may become the two rising Arab powers, as Egypt's finally completed the Aswan dam giving them water for export, and a finally completed nuclear Iranian electrical grid can finally power cheap desalinization of water, not only for Iran but its neighbors. Its a scarcity of water that really drives many of the issues in the mid-east.

 

[Moonbeam]

My own math concludes that it doesn't matter how many nuclear weapons Israel has because they'll never use them if they're not facing utter annihilation, and they're certainly not going to allow them/the material to fall into the wrong hands.

Given that, and given how batsh1t insane current Islamic society is over in the greater ME region, there is absolutely zero (this is a mathematical certainty) reason anyone would want Iran, or any other Islamic controlled country, to aquire a nuclear weapon(s) or the technology and/or ability to build one. That Pakistan has is already >= BI (Bad Idea).

End of math lesson.

There is nothing here about about Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. How bat shit insane Islamic society is in not a given but the issue at question. The hope in this discussion is that Iran may offer something we can also call sane.

Your lesson is to examine the assumptions you make that you turn into immutable truths that are, shall we say, bat shit insane?

-----------

Very interesting stuff, LL.

 

[LunarRay]

I'd offer Iran a deal.

I'd offer Iran nuclear power plants and what ever else is needed to provide their electrical needs but run by America. America would deal with the nuclear stuff that someday could be made into weapon grade stuff... AND, I'd give them Special Good Buddy status in a Treaty that guaranteed their safety from invasion... IOW, the US would be their protector from the madmen that might otherwise necessitate a defensive weapon system...

 

[chucky2]

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Somehow there is no math in chucky2's math lesson, but still the Pakistani nuclear program is a fait accompli, as was the India nuclear weapons program that almost required it. And in terms of Pakistan, it has discovered having a nuclear program has not made them invasion proof or threat proof.

Israel is somewhat the odd man out, as they went with a nuclear weapons program and had no need for it.

But Iran and Egypt may become the two rising Arab powers, as Egypt's finally completed the Aswan dam giving them water for export, and a finally completed nuclear Iranian electrical grid can finally power cheap desalinization of water, not only for Iran but its neighbors. Its a scarcity of water that really drives many of the issues in the mid-east.

Blah blah blah. If Iran was so hard up for peaceful nuke power, which they really are (I do believe that they need it), then they could have accepted the Russian offer, not had any sanctions, not spent tons of their money going the route they've gone, wasted tons of time, etc. etc. That they didn't points to their true long term goal.

There is nothing here about about Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.

That is the point of the OP. Nuke tech for Iran is only in dispute because no one (and that's basically Everyone, not just the evil West) wants them to have one.

How bat shit insane Islamic society is in not a given but the issue at question.

No, they're quite insane. Any culture that perpetuates in these modern times of information travel the burrying of a woman who had the audacity to get raped, up to her neck and stones hurtled into her face, is quite insane, of that there is no doubt. That they force themselves to operate sanely some of the time is no different than a psychopath pretending to be normal.

The hope in this discussion is that Iran may offer something we can also call sane.

Correct.

Your lesson is to examine the assumptions you make that you turn into immutable truths that are, shall we say, bat shit insane?

If only they were assumptions, and not just facts...really too bad that...

-----------

Very interesting stuff, LL.

Yes, interesting. Interesting in that Obama is realizing that there's nothing that the West can do, so they mine as well get a useless agreement from Iran and drop the sanctions. One has to wonder what backroom dealing resulted in this...

Chuck

 

[chucky2]

I'd offer Iran a deal.

I'd offer Iran nuclear power plants and what ever else is needed to provide their electrical needs but run by America. America would deal with the nuclear stuff that someday could be made into weapon grade stuff... AND, I'd give them Special Good Buddy status in a Treaty that guaranteed their safety from invasion... IOW, the US would be their protector from the madmen that might otherwise necessitate a defensive weapon system...

I've often wondered why we didn't offer just this, or, something setup under UN overwatch but staffed with our people/trusted allied folks. If Iran wanted to have doubles observe us, not a problem.

Prior to many countries Industrial Revolutions, this could actually be a framework where we get them onto an electric infrastructure rather than a fossil fuel consuming one.

Seems like a win-win-etc to me, not sure why it's been so hard to accomplish...

Chuck

 

[cubby1223]

The United States voluntarily gave Iran their initial nuclear technology

But, it still confuses me why Lemon Law is so insistent that Iran deserves equal military capacity as Israel.

No.

I am biased. I believe the United States deserves the best military power in the world, even though mistakes do happen, I believe in the long run a dominant United States is better for the world.

I mean, do I want to see Iran build up it's military power? Of course not.

As for Israel, it is also my opinion that they have sufficiently proven to me they will not be an aggressor against other countries. Then just get everyone else the fuck out of their affairs and there will be a resolution between Palestine. My opinion.

 

[Moonbeam]

chucky2: No, they're quite insane. Any culture that perpetuates in these modern times of information travel the burrying of a woman who had the audacity to get raped, up to her neck and stones hurtled into her face, is quite insane, of that there is no doubt. That they force themselves to operate sanely some of the time is no different than a psychopath pretending to be normal.

M: Ah OK, you are clearly incapable of logical thought and thus clearly insane.

 

[LunarRay]

The situation in the world is so dang similar to my experiences as a kid growing up in NYC that I wonder if it is not human nature to act as we do compelled by some instinctive behavior rather than a cogent application of some developed agenda...

I often wondered and still do today whether the gangs that milled about defending their turf did so because they had nothing better to do or feared the loss of ego should an interloper pass through or something else...
I'd walk to and from the academy I attended clad in my uniform and lugging a ton load of books. I don't imagine I looked much like an invasion force to them but still they tried to verbally intimidate me and did so for years... At some point I made that six mile walk much differently... I'd have so many folks who'd call out to me in a really friendly manner that it took an hour or so longer to get home. Nothing changed in me ... but it did in them... Each of these gangs were know to enjoy a rumble and would 'beat up' folks for simply passing by... but not me... On my last trip to Europe I stopped by the streets I used to walk and saw quite a few of the folks who so many years before stood where they stood that day... still hanging out... I asked a few of the old gang members if they remembered me... They said they did... So I asked why they treated me differently than all the other kids who wandered by... Each gang said the same thing... They said I always smiled at them, did not show fear or concern so I must have been nutty and they saw no reason to attack a nut case...

So... I wonder if in the world today we can eliminate the Fear can we avoid the bloodshed even if we appear to be a nut case in so doing?

 

[Lemon law]

Gotta love the chucky2 contention that, "No, they're quite insane. Any culture that perpetuates in these modern times of information travel the burrying of a woman who had the audacity to get raped, up to her neck and stones hurtled into her face, is quite insane, of that there is no doubt. That they force themselves to operate sanely some of the time is no different than a psychopath pretending to be normal."

Are you sure Chucky2 that you are not citing the behavior of our great US ally Saudi Arabia instead? While the rest of the world wonders why George Zimmerman is still getting away with murdering Trevon Martin as the entire world wonders about US violence. As the same thing can be said about our own SCOTUS stupidity.

Iran executed less than a thousand people last year, and the vast bulk of that was for drug related crimes. As Cubby also forgets, Iran was the only mid-east nation that supported the USA immaterially after 911.

The USA and the entire world now lives in a post colonial world, The USA has been very stupid in its snit against Iran, and if the USA wants to stay the leader of the free world its rapidly finding it can't stay in that leadership role if fewer and fewer nations are willing to follow us. As the EU doubts our lies in Iraq, we have two very expensive and failed quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan, yet cubby says stay the course to certain failure. As he bleats Islam is the root of all evil when Christianity evils are way way way ahead in the overall box score. As unconditional US support of Israel accelerates the US decline worldwide.

As our US allies already start to bail and our US enemies are emboldened.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Regretfully, I am unable to figure ought the best way to point out some of your fallacies again.

Israel percieved nukes have helped keep the Arabs at bay.

Nukes have no negative context w/ respect go Islam. Pakistan, Syria and Iraq all have nukes or chased them.
All are Islamic countries. So what some religious preachere is stating about Islam about nukes is BS.

Over the past few years, after Bush's time, Iran was offered nuclear power under controlled conditions that would have no impact on nuclear power generation output.

It was rejected. So they want nuke plants for more than power.

What Obama is offering is exactly what has been demanded all along. Allow unfettered access to everything and sanctions are gone.

The sanctions are starting to bite now and will hurt worse come July when the EU comes aboard.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Israel is somewhat the odd man out, as they went with a nuclear weapons program and had no need for it.

-- yeah right....and if they did not have the deterrent????

 

[Lemon law]

EK, links for your contentions please--as you state with zero evidence, "Over the past few years, after Bush's time, Iran was offered nuclear power under controlled conditions that would have no impact on nuclear power generation output.

It was rejected. So they want nuke plants for more than power."

As for me, I favor that the mid-east be a nuclear weapons free zone.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Look back at the offers made for outside countries to reprocess nuclear rods from reactors. Iran refused.

They would have the nuclear energy without concerns of the world on Iran reprocessing for enrichment. Russia was one country that offered.

 

[Moonbeam]

Regretfully, I am unable to figure ought the best way to point out some of your fallacies again.

This can sometimes happen when the fallacies are only perceived, like trying to justify racism.

 

[Jhhnn]

Look back at the offers made for outside countries to reprocess nuclear rods from reactors. Iran refused.

They would have the nuclear energy without concerns of the world on Iran reprocessing for enrichment. Russia was one country that offered.

I don't recall it being quite that way, so some sources would be appreciated..

 

[lothar]

I'd offer Iran a deal.

I'd offer Iran nuclear power plants and what ever else is needed to provide their electrical needs but run by America. America would deal with the nuclear stuff that someday could be made into weapon grade stuff... AND, I'd give them Special Good Buddy status in a Treaty that guaranteed their safety from invasion... IOW, the US would be their protector from the madmen that might otherwise necessitate a defensive weapon system...

Didn't the Russians already try that? Or was that something else?
Replace "America" with in your post with "Russia".

 

[LunarRay]

Didn't the Russians already try that? Or was that something else?
Replace "America" with in your post with "Russia".

Mine is a package deal..
Russia helped in a major way to get the plant in Bushehr running IIRC and it finally went online in 2011 but that is no way near my proposal for a complete program and treaty dealy.

 

[Lemon law]

Well, Russia did indeed help build the Iranian reactor at Bashir, but under US pressure never fuel it.

As Iran shocked the world, who would have thunk it, that ignorant Iranians would figure out on their own how to to make their own fuel rods as Iran's first reactor is on line and generating electricity. And for what its worth if I have my facts right, is generating more peace time electricity than the Israeli reactor at Dismona ever did.

As the Russian built Bashir plant is definitely not a breeder reactor design and the Israeli reactor at Dismona is definitely a breeder reactor and nothing else.

Meanwhile we still all await the first credible EK link.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Well, Russia did indeed help build the Iranian reactor at Bashir, but under US pressure never fuel it.

As Iran shocked the world, who would have thunk it, that ignorant Iranians would figure out on their own how to to make their own fuel rods as Iran's first reactor is on line and generating electricity. And for what its worth if I have my facts right, is generating more peace time electricity than the Israeli reactor at Dismona ever did.

As the Russian built Bashir plant is definitely not a breeder reactor design and the Israeli reactor at Dismona is definitely a breeder reactor and nothing else.

Meanwhile we still all await the first credible EK link.

Wow. Shocker. LL has absolutely no clue what he's talking about once AGAIN.

http://www.iranian.com/main/news/2011/05/13/iran-gets-another-nuclear-fuel-batch-russia-report

(Reuters) - Iran has received another shipment of nuclear fuel from Russia for use at its Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Arabic-language al Alam channel quoted an official as saying Wednesday.

"The shipments were transferred to Iran from Russia by plane in three phases on May 4, 8 and 10," spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Hamid Khadem Ghaemi told al Alam state channel. He said 30 metric tons of fuel had been received.


Russia delivered the first batch of about 80 metric tons of uranium fuel rods to Iran in 2008 on December 17 as part of international efforts to persuade Tehran to halt its uranium enrichment program.

 

[Lemon law]

Pardon me Chicken man, your facts don't add up and your dates simply don't compute. As you compare apples to oranges as I think you are referring to a very microscopic Iranian reactor already IAEA approved for only generating medical isotopes. When the far larger Bashir reactor only came on line in 2/2012 without Russian fueling.

In related news, China and Turkey are recently opposing Iranian sanctions, as Hezzbollah n Lebanon is crawfishing on its position of supporting Iran or not. A concrete Hezbollah guarantee that it will not resume rocket attacks against Israel might be a asset to US foreign policy, but the lack of it is added mid-east uncertainty.

As IMHO, TLC, you have been a poster child that nothing ever changes in the mid-east, while you are seemingly totally blind to the changes all around you.

 

[Jhhnn]

While LL is a litle confused wrt Iranian production of nuclear fuel, they have successfully created the fuel rods for a small research reactor used to create medical isotopes. Fuel rods for Bushehr are still under contract from Russia, but they plan on fueling their own future reactors.

A softening of the US stance will be necessary for the issues to be resolved, simply because the US has demanded cessation of Iranian enrichment up to this point, and Iran has refused to do so, claiming it as their right under the NPT & IAEA supervision. Granting legitimacy to the Iranian enrichment program would be a huge step in the normalization of relations.

If the Iranians will agree to the kind of inspection protocols that will provide extremely strong assurances of compliance with the NPT, then the US can reasonably drop the demand that Iran cease enrichment entirely. If nuclear materials are not diverted to the production of weapons grade material, then no weapons will be created...

If such an accord can be reached & enforced, then the Netanyahu govt won't have any pretense for attacking Iran, & the US can't be dragged into a conflict that doesn't exist.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Pardon me Chicken man, your facts don't add up and your dates simply don't compute. As you compare apples to oranges as I think you are referring to a very microscopic Iranian reactor already IAEA approved for only generating medical isotopes. When the far larger Bashir reactor only came on line in 2/2012 without Russian fueling.

In related news, China and Turkey are recently opposing Iranian sanctions, as Hezzbollah n Lebanon is crawfishing on its position of supporting Iran or not. A concrete Hezbollah guarantee that it will not resume rocket attacks against Israel might be a asset to US foreign policy, but the lack of it is added mid-east uncertainty.

As IMHO, TLC, you have been a poster child that nothing ever changes in the mid-east, while you are seemingly totally blind to the changes all around you.

You are an ignorant fool who constantly spews crap in here about subjects you know nothing to little about. Russia is supplying fuel for the Bushehr reactor and has for some time now.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/12/17/russia.iran/index.html

Russia doesn't deliver 80 tons of nuclear fuel for medical isotopes, dumbass.

Your lack of keeping up with not so current events regarding Iran and their nuclear program is your failing LL, not mine. Poster child? If anyone is a poster child it's you...the poster child for stupid and talking out of their ass.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

While LL is a litle confused wrt Iranian production of nuclear fuel, they have successfully created the fuel rods for a small research reactor used to create medical isotopes. Fuel rods for Bushehr are still under contract from Russia, but they plan on fueling their own future reactors.

A softening of the US stance will be necessary for the issues to be resolved, simply because the US has demanded cessation of Iranian enrichment up to this point, and Iran has refused to do so, claiming it as their right under the NPT & IAEA supervision. Granting legitimacy to the Iranian enrichment program would be a huge step in the normalization of relations.

If the Iranians will agree to the kind of inspection protocols that will provide extremely strong assurances of compliance with the NPT, then the US can reasonably drop the demand that Iran cease enrichment entirely. If nuclear materials are not diverted to the production of weapons grade material, then no weapons will be created...

If such an accord can be reached & enforced, then the Netanyahu govt won't have any pretense for attacking Iran, & the US can't be dragged into a conflict that doesn't exist.

Obama has thrown Iran a bone. Will they take it?

My guess is that they will not because if there's one thing Iran can't seem to stomach it's agreeing to terms that they themselves haven't dictated. They would rather be hard-headed than be compliant.

I would love to be proven wrong on this issue. Seeing the situation defused would be great. But I would bet my money that Iran will give this offer the finger too because they have a history of doing that very thing.