Fed increases key rate to 2.5%

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
http://www.newsday.com/business/nationw...4311.story?coll=sns-business-headlines
Federal Reserve policymakers increased the short-term interest rate a quarter of a point to 2.5% today, the sixth consecutive rise since the end of June.

Economists across the political spectrum had expected the increase, part of a continuing Fed campaign to raise rates at what it considers a "measured" pace. As the brokerage firm Lehman Brothers wrote in its weekly economic commentary, economists "expect no surprises."

The rate, which governs overnight loans to banks, was as low as 1% as the Fed loosened credit to bring the country out of the 2001 recession. By raising the rate, the Fed, in effect, believes that the economy is doing well, and a slight tweak in interest rates was needed.

The Federal Open Market Committee, in its second day of meetings, issued a statement on its website.

"The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity," it said.

"Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.

"The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability," it said.

Last week, the Commerce Department reported that the economy grew at 4.4%, the best showing since 1999, when the gross domestic product grew at 4.5%. However, the fourth-quarter growth was a relatively lackluster 3.1%, usually attributed to a 3.9% decline in U.S. exports.

It is usual for the stock and money markets to drift before the Fed announcement, but strong results from several companies pushed stocks up. After a disappointing beginning in the new year, stocks have scored gains in five of the last six sessions.

At noon trading, the Dow, NASDAQ and Standard & Poor's were all up slightly and bumped up a bit more after the Fed announcement.

The tech sector got a supercharged boost from Google, which reported its profits were up eight-fold. The stock jumped 11% to around $212 a share giving the Internet search company three times the capitalization of General Motors. GM, a Dow component was up about 1.7%.

Boeing, and the drug companies, Pfizer and Merck, were also leading the market higher.

The strength of the economy will play a role in how the Bush administration pushes for its priorities, to be outlined tonight by the president in his State of the Union speech. It will also be the centerpiece when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gives his semiannual testimony before Congress, slated for Feb. 16 and 17. Greenspan is scheduled to retire next year.
Guess Greenspan is trying to cut down on that 3.3% inflation rate. When mortgage rates start to go up, home sales will start to drop and that will deflate somewhat the Bush admin claim of home ownership being a sign of a recovering economy (I love how they continually ignore the fact that interest rates have been incredibly low and that's the main reason why home sales have been doing well.)
 

tontod

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
3,244
0
71
I hope this means the interest on my ING Direct account will go up soon. ;)
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: jjzelinski
I'm just loving my ~1.06 interest rate on my money market...


Switch to ING direct (as stated above). It has no limit and has been above 2% for a year. It's currently 2.35%. :)
 

Martin

Lifer
Jan 15, 2000
29,178
1
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Unfortunately, the dollar did not go up today (against the Aussie dollar) as I was expecting and now I'm in the red. :\
 

ciba

Senior member
Apr 27, 2004
812
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Originally posted by: conjurGuess Greenspan is trying to cut down on that 3.3% inflation rate. When mortgage rates start to go up, home sales will start to drop and that will deflate somewhat the Bush admin claim of home ownership being a sign of a recovering economy (I love how they continually ignore the fact that interest rates have been incredibly low and that's the main reason why home sales have been doing well.)

I want to see prime at 14% THAT will bring down home prices in my area!
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Originally posted by: ciba
Originally posted by: conjurGuess Greenspan is trying to cut down on that 3.3% inflation rate. When mortgage rates start to go up, home sales will start to drop and that will deflate somewhat the Bush admin claim of home ownership being a sign of a recovering economy (I love how they continually ignore the fact that interest rates have been incredibly low and that's the main reason why home sales have been doing well.)
I want to see prime at 14% THAT will bring down home prices in my area!
But then you still couldn't afford the mortgage! Unless you don't mind paying about $1800/mo. for a $150k house. :)
 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Originally posted by: conjur
Guess Greenspan is trying to cut down on that 3.3% inflation rate. When mortgage rates start to go up, home sales will start to drop and that will deflate somewhat the Bush admin claim of home ownership being a sign of a recovering economy (I love how they continually ignore the fact that interest rates have been incredibly low and that's the main reason why home sales have been doing well.)
People lose possession of the homes they already bought as soon as interest rates go up? Home ownership is not a rate.
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Originally posted by: conjur
Guess Greenspan is trying to cut down on that 3.3% inflation rate. When mortgage rates start to go up, home sales will start to drop and that will deflate somewhat the Bush admin claim of home ownership being a sign of a recovering economy (I love how they continually ignore the fact that interest rates have been incredibly low and that's the main reason why home sales have been doing well.)
People lose possession of the homes they already bought as soon as interest rates go up? Home ownership is not a rate.
Oh?

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2003/11/24/daily40.html

http://www.forbes.com/2004/09/03/cx_da_0903topnews_print.html
The U.S. Census Bureau has been measuring home ownership rates since 1965. In the fourth quarter of that year, the home ownership rate was 63.4%. (The home ownership rate is defined as proportion of households that are owners.) The rate has risen slowly but steadily ever since. In the fourth quarter of 2003, the home ownership rate was 68.6%. In those 39 years, the home ownership rate went up 33 times.

This trend does not seem to be owing to any particular set of policies. U.S. policy, notably the mortgage interest tax deduction and the general ease of credit has long favored home ownership. The one era where home ownership decreased was, oddly enough, during the presidency of Ronald Reagan. When he took office, the home ownership rate was 65.6%. When he left the White House, it had fallen to 63.9%. This was despite falling interest rates.

The rate started climbing again under the first President Bush and in President Bill Clinton's first term. In both of those four-year periods, the home ownership rate increased by 0.8%. The rate went up most dramatically during Clinton's second term, rising from 65.4% in the first quarter of 1997 to 67.1% in the first quarter of 2001, a 1.7% pop.

In the first three years of George W. Bush's term, the rate of increase stayed high, spurred in all likelihood by rapidly declining interest rates. In the last year, there has been a 1.2% increase in the ownership rate to 69.2% for the second quarter of this year, an unusually large one-year increase. Historically low interest rates may have goosed a long-term trend.

The changes in home ownership rates would seem to be a function not of policy (aside from policies that haven't changed) but of demographics. The aging of the U.S. population would seem to play a large role because as people age they are much more likely to own homes. In 2004, the home ownership rate for people under 35 was 43.6%. For people between the ages of 35 and 44, it was 65.4%; for those over 45, it was at least 77%.
 

GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
6,519
595
126
Originally posted by: conjur
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Originally posted by: conjur
Guess Greenspan is trying to cut down on that 3.3% inflation rate. When mortgage rates start to go up, home sales will start to drop and that will deflate somewhat the Bush admin claim of home ownership being a sign of a recovering economy (I love how they continually ignore the fact that interest rates have been incredibly low and that's the main reason why home sales have been doing well.)
People lose possession of the homes they already bought as soon as interest rates go up? Home ownership is not a rate.
Oh?

http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2003/11/24/daily40.html

http://www.forbes.com/2004/09/03/cx_da_0903topnews_print.html
The U.S. Census Bureau has been measuring home ownership rates since 1965. In the fourth quarter of that year, the home ownership rate was 63.4%. (The home ownership rate is defined as proportion of households that are owners.) The rate has risen slowly but steadily ever since. In the fourth quarter of 2003, the home ownership rate was 68.6%. In those 39 years, the home ownership rate went up 33 times.

This trend does not seem to be owing to any particular set of policies. U.S. policy, notably the mortgage interest tax deduction and the general ease of credit has long favored home ownership. The one era where home ownership decreased was, oddly enough, during the presidency of Ronald Reagan. When he took office, the home ownership rate was 65.6%. When he left the White House, it had fallen to 63.9%. This was despite falling interest rates.

The rate started climbing again under the first President Bush and in President Bill Clinton's first term. In both of those four-year periods, the home ownership rate increased by 0.8%. The rate went up most dramatically during Clinton's second term, rising from 65.4% in the first quarter of 1997 to 67.1% in the first quarter of 2001, a 1.7% pop.

In the first three years of George W. Bush's term, the rate of increase stayed high, spurred in all likelihood by rapidly declining interest rates. In the last year, there has been a 1.2% increase in the ownership rate to 69.2% for the second quarter of this year, an unusually large one-year increase. Historically low interest rates may have goosed a long-term trend.

The changes in home ownership rates would seem to be a function not of policy (aside from policies that haven't changed) but of demographics. The aging of the U.S. population would seem to play a large role because as people age they are much more likely to own homes. In 2004, the home ownership rate for people under 35 was 43.6%. For people between the ages of 35 and 44, it was 65.4%; for those over 45, it was at least 77%.

People who bought a house on an ARM will get nailed...fixed rate folks will be fine

 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Originally posted by: conjur
Home ownership is at an all-time high. I haven't heard that the 'home ownership rate' (that would be the rate at which people are buying but not selling a home, and would be more aptly described as something else which I won't go into, but how fast can you own a house?) is at an all-time high. There is a difference. If a record number of people already bought houses and were anything close to smart and got a locked-in rate, then this shouldn't affect them at all.
 

ciba

Senior member
Apr 27, 2004
812
0
71
Originally posted by: conjur
Originally posted by: ciba
Originally posted by: conjurGuess Greenspan is trying to cut down on that 3.3% inflation rate. When mortgage rates start to go up, home sales will start to drop and that will deflate somewhat the Bush admin claim of home ownership being a sign of a recovering economy (I love how they continually ignore the fact that interest rates have been incredibly low and that's the main reason why home sales have been doing well.)
I want to see prime at 14% THAT will bring down home prices in my area!
But then you still couldn't afford the mortgage! Unless you don't mind paying about $1800/mo. for a $150k house. :)

I conveniently have access to private financing :) until rates drop back down to a reasonable level.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
Interest rate hikes traditionally lead to lower housing prices, as we saw in the late 80's. Given that corporate advancement and even survival depend on mobility, the situation leads to lots of folks getting screwed. They bought the place 4 years ago on a non-transferrable mortgage for $250K, refinanced to pay off some unexpected medical bills, but rising interest rates and other market forces drove the selling price down to $230K afterwards... Their employer is relocating to Nevada, but they can''t get out from under because they now owe $250K... can't rent it out and break even because their employer's exodus has depressed the local rental market... and they obviously don't have the $20K difference...

Home "Ownership" is mostly a misnomer, particularly for younger families. It's more like a revolving account form of indentured servitude, where majority equity is a myth, and outright ownership merely a dream... whenever the market takes a dip, they take the shaft...

Pretty much the same for the taxpayers, given the way the current leadership is borrowing us into a hole. As rates rise, we get less for more, rising debt maintenance effectively diluting the value of every tax dollar... our debt/income ratio forcing us into the high risk category, where rates are even higher...

Most folks don't plan on ever paying off the mortgage, and the Repubs don't plan on ever paying off the national debt, either. Why would they? Explosive federal debt is the perfect disguise for the explosive transfer of wealth to the very top strata that their policies promote...

 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Originally posted by: ciba
Originally posted by: conjur
Originally posted by: ciba
Originally posted by: conjurGuess Greenspan is trying to cut down on that 3.3% inflation rate. When mortgage rates start to go up, home sales will start to drop and that will deflate somewhat the Bush admin claim of home ownership being a sign of a recovering economy (I love how they continually ignore the fact that interest rates have been incredibly low and that's the main reason why home sales have been doing well.)
I want to see prime at 14% THAT will bring down home prices in my area!
But then you still couldn't afford the mortgage! Unless you don't mind paying about $1800/mo. for a $150k house. :)
I conveniently have access to private financing :) until rates drop back down to a reasonable level.
You're friends with Neil Bush?

:laugh:



j/k! :)