Fantasy Football draft position question

[JS80]

I remember reading some time back an article that showed statistics on what the "best" draft position was in a 12 team league, and it wasn't #1...does anyone have a link?

 

[gimmewhitecastles]

i remember that the bookends in draft position usually did well. 1,2,3 or 10,11,12.
if it was't #1 then it was probably #2. I think the #10 spot was 3rd most successfull also.

 

[Whisper]

i remember that the bookends in draft position usually did well. 1,2,3 or 10,11,12.
if it was't #1 then it was probably #2. I think the #10 spot was 3rd most successfull also.

This is pretty much what the analyses I've read show. It's not that #1 isn't the best position, it's just that it was relatively "surprising" that the other book-end positions did equally well (or thereabouts). Basically, if you're #4 through 8 or 9, you get the screwed. Draft-wise, anyway.

Although they based it all on how well each pick did at the end of the year, so I'm not sure if they controlled for player experience levels at each of the different draft positions.

Edit: Another potential problem is that with #1 sometimes comes a lot of additional pressure that most of the other positions (especially the opposite-side bookends) don't feel. Thus, some people may spend disproportionate amounts of time debating their first pick, while ignoring the important choices you need to make in the middle and later rounds.

 

[SunnyD]

Best draft I had was from the #3 position.

 

[Connoisseur]

We're in a keeper league this year and I think i actually have an advantage drafting 12th (snaking draft). I'm keeping Adrian Petersen and Matt Schaub (it was either him or Antonio Gates). My thought was since I already have a solid QB i can pick up a good RB and WR in one shot. Any thoughts?

 

[slayer202]

i think I remember reading an espn article this year about it. trying to find it now

 

[JS80]

i think I remember reading an espn article this year about it. trying to find it now

yes, this! with statistics. either i am google fail search today or there is too much trash to filter through.

 

[Connoisseur]

i think I remember reading an espn article this year about it. trying to find it now

are you referring to my post or OP? I think most strategies involve picking top tier WR's or RB's first. I'm debating btwn picking up a couple of WR's or one WR and one RB. of course also depends on the keepers.

 

[sactoking]

There's no true answer to the underlying question because the landscape changes annually. On a high level, the best draft spot in any given year is the spot before the first large dropoff in relative point value.

For example, let's say that you expect Johnson/Peterson/Turner to go 1-3 (in any order) and DeAngelo to go #4. If 1-3 are projected to get 350, 340, and 330 points, respectively, and #4 is projected to get 300, you want to be picking #3. The dropoff from 3 to 4 is the first big cliff so you don't want to be on the wrong side.

You can make it much more complicated if that's your thing, but that's the most basic way to do it.

 

[spidey07]

Just joined my first league, so tagging along.

 

[slayer202]

Ok I found it in this year's ESPN the magazine fantasy issue.

Basically....

They looked at 1999-2009 and redrafted leagues based purely on pre-season ADP. The 1st and 2nd spots scored the most fantasy points. Something like 10% above the average. The 10th spot in a 10 team league finished 3rd, with maybe 5% above average. The middle spots, 5/6 I think were worst.

They based those numbers on drafting 6 rounds of each draft. Drafting only 2 rounds provided a greater advantage for the same picks that did well in the 6 round study.


I'm not buying into this.

First, why 6 rounds? Should we assume that if you draft a full 15 rounds that all the spots are about equal? Of course that wouldn't make as interesting an article, so maybe they skewed it for that reason.

Second and Third, how many drafts go exactly by ADP? Swapping picks here and there would completely change the results of the study. That alone pretty much kills the credibility of this. Also, I'm sure they used ESPN ADP. Obviously not everyone uses the same rankings and not every draft will play out like an ESPN league.

I don't think you can say any spot is much better than another. If anything, you have to look year to year. This year, you might want a top 4 RB. or Maybe a top 7 pick overall.

 

[JS80]

Ok I found it in this year's ESPN the magazine fantasy issue.

Basically....

They looked at 1999-2009 and redrafted leagues based purely on pre-season ADP. The 1st and 2nd spots scored the most fantasy points. Something like 10% above the average. The 10th spot in a 10 team league finished 3rd, with maybe 5% above average. The middle spots, 5/6 I think were worst.

They based those numbers on drafting 6 rounds of each draft. Drafting only 2 rounds provided a greater advantage for the same picks that did well in the 6 round study.


I'm not buying into this.

First, why 6 rounds? Should we assume that if you draft a full 15 rounds that all the spots are about equal? Of course that wouldn't make as interesting an article, so maybe they skewed it for that reason.

Second and Third, how many drafts go exactly by ADP? Swapping picks here and there would completely change the results of the study. That alone pretty much kills the credibility of this. Also, I'm sure they used ESPN ADP. Obviously not everyone uses the same rankings and not every draft will play out like an ESPN league.

I don't think you can say any spot is much better than another. If anything, you have to look year to year. This year, you might want a top 4 RB. or Maybe a top 7 pick overall.

LOL I knew I wasn't crazy. I remember now I was reading it on the toilet.

 

[gimmewhitecastles]

i think the bookends do well because they have a better chance at making a run on players because they can pick players in succession or with little wait. it makes it easier to pick up players you're trying to key in on.

the middle of the pack guys are pretty much at the whim of the bookends. after they pick their first rb, all of a sudden there is a run on qb's or top tier wrs which puts pressure on them to fill that spot.

 

[slayer202]

i think the bookends do well because they have a better chance at making a run on players because they can pick players in succession or with little wait. it makes it easier to pick up players you're trying to key in on.

the middle of the pack guys are pretty much at the whim of the bookends. after they pick their first rb, all of a sudden there is a run on qb's or top tier wrs which puts pressure on them to fill that spot.

not sure I buy that. middle spots have less time between picks. bookends can make their picks, and they are waiting 18-20 picks until they choose again. there could be a run in that time as well, and you might not get the chance at a player that is falling past their ADP. in 20 picks, someone will grab the guy that was falling

bookends have an easier time drafting though. you need a RB and WR? you get them both right now, no need to figure out who will be left next time, you need to grab what you need

 

[BudAshes]

3rd is my favorite spot. There is usually a top 3 of great running backs in the league and having 3rd pick means you get dibs on a good second rounder before 1 and 2 get to pick again.

 

[jaha2000]

This is why i like auction drafting, no luck to your draft position there.

 

[Chaotic42]

I was next to last, getting to pick almost back to back was awesome. I ended up with Matt Schaub and Randy Moss.

 

[Whisper]

I was next to last, getting to pick almost back to back was awesome. I ended up with Matt Schaub and Randy Moss.

I actually like 11th and 12th in a 12-team league as well. It's just inherently pleasing to be able to pick two players back-to-back (or thereabouts), and it can make it somewhat easier to strategize (i.e., you don't have to deal quite as much with the, "dammit, he took my guy, who's left" scramble).

 

[FallenHero]

not sure I buy that. middle spots have less time between picks. bookends can make their picks, and they are waiting 18-20 picks until they choose again. there could be a run in that time as well, and you might not get the chance at a player that is falling past their ADP. in 20 picks, someone will grab the guy that was falling

bookends have an easier time drafting though. you need a RB and WR? you get them both right now, no need to figure out who will be left next time, you need to grab what you need

Which means you can grab 2 really decent picks at the position or grab a decent pick and a high end pick at another spot. The bookends determine if there is going to be a run on a position or not. They will always get at least one top tier of almost every position.

 

[slayer202]

Which means you can grab 2 really decent picks at the position or grab a decent pick and a high end pick at another spot. The bookends determine if there is going to be a run on a position or not. They will always get at least one top tier of almost every position.

bookends don't determine runs...they can start at any time. there is no draft position that is better than any others. it is all about what players fall to what spots, and how well you draft, plus luck. depending on your league settings you might think a certain spot works best for you, but overall, bookends have no real advantage other than being able to make 2 picks at the same time, with no one else picking between them.

 

[Connoisseur]

Might as well do some slight hijacking. Need a suggestion since this is my first keeper league.

As mentioned, i'm keeping Schaub and Petersen. This is a weird season since we're switching from Yahoo to ESPN but still having keepers. This effectively brings everyone on an even keel as far as draft position (i.e. i don't lose my first round draft pick just because I have Petersen). In terms of keepers, we have the top 5 QB's, top 8 RB's, and top 8 WR's already taken. I'm 12th in a 12 team snaking draft.

My question is this: should I pick up a good RB and WR or should I grab 2 WR's right off the bat and settle for a decent RB in the 3rd round? I'm getting some heartburn over this decision.

 

[vi edit]

I've done enough fantasy football to know that it's not really the first 4-5 rounds that even matter. It's about 1/4 luck in drafting, 1/4 waiver wire pickups/management, and 1/2 luck. Those sleepers in the 5th-10th rounds really can make or break you for injury fill ins, bye weeks, and breakout seasons.

 

[Fingolfin269]

Here is a scenario for you guys...

Where do you think the best drafting position would be in the following draft format? It's a weird one that one league I joined last year uses. Don't ask... I don't know why they do it this way.

1 to 10
10 to 1
6 to 10
1 to 5
5 to 1
10 to 6
repeat from beginning

I have the 4th pick and my first 8 pick positions will look like this using that draft 'snake' format:
#4, 17, 29, 32, 44, 57, 69, 72

Using the normal snake draft they would be:
#4, 17, 24, 37, 44, 57, 64, 77

I may try to trade positions if someone can figure out why trading down to a lower slot might benefit me.

 

[soulcougher73]

Ive always had the best luck with the last or 2nd to last pick in the 1st round. I prefer last. It gets you 2 studs back to back. Where as the 1st pick gets 1 stud and then 1 good player by the time it snakes all the way back to him. That has been my observations over the years. early pick i dont do so good. late pick or last pick i win the league or at least int he finals.

 

[soulcougher73]

i think the bookends do well because they have a better chance at making a run on players because they can pick players in succession or with little wait. it makes it easier to pick up players you're trying to key in on.

the middle of the pack guys are pretty much at the whim of the bookends. after they pick their first rb, all of a sudden there is a run on qb's or top tier wrs which puts pressure on them to fill that spot.

I have seen this happen a lot. Best bet is not to fall for it because by the time your turn comes after the run on WRs for example. There really isnt any top talent left so why pick up a 2nd teir WR now. Best to just pick a 1st teir RB or QB if you havent already since they should still be on the board since everyone else was running on the WRs.

That is one of my strategies i try to use. If i see a run happening i just let it happen and pick up a top tier player at another position because by the time my pick gets back to me you are already into those 2nd teir players usually that you can still pick up 5 rounds from now.