Boy... let me first say that a truly ab initio "first principles" accurate solution to this (even with a small area of flow the size of a bathtub) is computationally intractable for the largest supercomputers on the planet. The fluid dynamics of water flowing around millions of rough surfaced somewhat porous sand / pebble grains and then taking into account granule friction, lubrication / hydroplaning effects, propagating vibrations, kinetics of moving granules, et. al. would involve probably terabytes of RAM, equations with probably billions of unknowns to be solved at timescales of like every 1/10,000 second, et. al.
Now if you want to "cheat" you can come up with a very nice "visually convincing" simulation with graphics technology using empirical models of the flows / catastrophies (avalanches, erosion processes) et. al. If you were really interested I expect I could find some references to industrial / scientific grade codes that could be (or are) used for this sort of approximate solution. You'd probably need a LINUX box to run most of the stuff and be familiar with building / using various C / Fortran types of engineering applications, OpenGL visualization tools, et. al.
If you just want to do it yourself, you could tinker around with some elementary mathematical models and see what happens. Look at the "fluids" demo from NVIDIA. In fact look at all editions of their GPU GEMS book series, (I), (II), (III), and download the code and the available chapters / articles from their web site. They have excellent tutorials on simulating fluid flows, solid particle sprays, particle dynamics, et. al. for GPUs and CPUs.
If you have a NVIDIA 8600GT or better GPU you'd be well advised to just run some of their codes and play with the math / models / equations to get an understanding and visualization of them; it will be FAR easier than trying to recreate that in EXCEL or most other packages.
Actually some of the older GPU GEMS (I/II) codes probably would run on 6600GT or 7600GT series GPU cards.
http://developer.nvidia.com/object/gpu_gems_home.html
http://developer.nvidia.com/object/gpu_gems_2_home.html
http://developer.nvidia.com/object/gpu-gems-3.html
Some of the ShaderX books are free and worth reading too:
http://www.realtimerendering.c...ble-for-free-download/
http://www.shaderx.com/
http://www.shaderx3.com/
http://www.shaderx4.com/
http://www.shaderx6.com/
http://www.cs.utk.edu/~huangj/...Shader_Programming.pdf
http://users.ece.gatech.edu/~lanterma/mpg/
Any basic physics book or online math/physics reference site will have simplified equations for drag, viscosity, kinetic energy, et. al.
As you start getting into more custom models you'll want to check out some of the game physics / dynamics engines to see what kinds of particle / fluid systems they may be capable of, however I think the best models / advice will be from places like the GPU GEMS codes since most game physics / dynamics engines are sort weak on the fluids/particles perspective especially from a pedagogogical / experimental perspectives.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_physics
http://www.gamedev.net/reference/list.asp?categoryid=28
Some rendering / scene graph tools may help too:
http://www.openscenegraph.org/projects/osg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenSceneGraph
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OGRE
http://www.ogre3d.org/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrlicht_Engine
http://irrlicht.sourceforge.net/
Once you have a rough bugs bunny / cartoon level simulation working of the combined fluid + particle + erosion shaders / models going, you can always use something like povray,
yafray, gelato, or whatever free quality rendering system to do a non real time simulation and high quality rendering for a beautiful movie.
The basic physics are:
laminar fluid flow
turbulent fluid flow
kinetic energy transport between a fluid flow and a solid particle / particle flow
kinetic energy of fluid cells
kinetic energy of particles, linear momentum, angular momentum
solid rotations (tumbling, rolling)
simulated annealing / hamiltonian mechanics / minimization (grains settling into low points and mound building and so on)
time-stepping / integration / differential equation algorithms to simulate continuous physics in discrete time steps
friction
drag
stability
erosion
chaos
avalanche processes
Excel? No way.. sure you could probably write a few equations to predict erosive rate or flow rates through a sump / leech field, or so on, but it'd be horrible for visualization or complex programmatic calculations.