I have a quite different take, Mubarak wanted his army to back him and his army did not.
And now Mubarak is toast. And somewhat the same thing happened previously in Tunisia.
But still these common peoples rebellions now gaining steam all over the mid-east come from new younger educated Arabs, v the old line Arab fossil leadership. As the same common new ideas sweep from Algeria all the way to Yemen.
Various old line Arab leaders in Lybia, Bahrain, Yemen, Iran, and other places may be able to rely on their armies to quash the current rebellions, but armies can never kill ideas or the aspirations of a captive populace.
So the way I look at it, the status quo in places like Bahrain may survive, but still the leaders of Bahrain have already planted the seeds of their own destruction. Especially, if and when Egypt can show the positive example of better leadership.
Most leaders that fall, have faced rebellions before, and finally run out of all credibility, in a long slow, bit by bit process.
Why should we expect the first time to be enough?