Even Biden knows gun control won't do much.

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RampantAndroid

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2004
6,591
3
81
You don't even need data, it's just common sense. We have more firearms rolling off the factory floor than firearms being destroyed. Simple math. I'm reminded of the much-hyped Seattle gun buyback that was held recently; I don't think any functional "assault weapons" were collected (if any were, that number was easily displaced by the thousands of black rifles flying off dealers shelves daily).

Also, the popularization of modern sporting rifles has really taken off in the last two decades alone. Coincedentally, the same period of time it took for us to cut our firearms related homicides by 50%.

They got street sweepers and a spent missile launcher, other than that handguns and assault rifles. They're tlaking about holding another - if they do, I plan to go down there and buy guns off people in line with cash...
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,963
47,858
136
We have more firearms in private hands than ever before. More handguns, more AR-15s, more AK-47s, more 30-round magazines, and more ammunition. If more of these equaled more firearms homicides, why has that statistic dropped by 50% over the last two decades?

We actually don't. Individual gun owners now each own more guns per capita, but the proportion of American households with guns has declined.

So actually the decline in homicides tracks with fewer households being armed. Although I haven't checked I feel it is likely that the relationship isn't strong enough to draw any causal conclusions from, but regardless the trends are not as you say they are.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
We actually don't. Individual gun owners now each own more guns per capita, but the proportion of American households with guns has declined.

So actually the decline in homicides tracks with fewer households being armed. Although I haven't checked I feel it is likely that the relationship isn't strong enough to draw any causal conclusions from, but regardless the trends are not as you say they are.
So you're telling me that if we continue down this path we're currently on for the last two decades, we're going to be subjected to further reductions in firearms related homicides?

OH NOES!

As I said, current laws are fine. Crime is going down. We can make some real common sense reforms, but banning firearms and magazines isn't the solution.
 

NoStateofMind

Diamond Member
Oct 14, 2005
9,711
6
76
So you're telling me that if we continue down this path we're currently on for the last two decades, we're going to be subjected to further reductions in firearms related homicides?

OH NOES!

As I said, current laws are fine. Crime is going down. We can make some real common sense reforms, but banning firearms and magazines isn't the solution.

lol you got him coming AND going. Absolute win!
 

RampantAndroid

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2004
6,591
3
81
We actually don't. Individual gun owners now each own more guns per capita, but the proportion of American households with guns has declined.

So actually the decline in homicides tracks with fewer households being armed. Although I haven't checked I feel it is likely that the relationship isn't strong enough to draw any causal conclusions from, but regardless the trends are not as you say they are.

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Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
We actually don't. Individual gun owners now each own more guns per capita, but the proportion of American households with guns has declined.

So actually the decline in homicides tracks with fewer households being armed. Although I haven't checked I feel it is likely that the relationship isn't strong enough to draw any causal conclusions from, but regardless the trends are not as you say they are.
Given this trend, more guns in fewer hands, it seems like we have a bright future ahead of us if we change no laws at all.

I can hardly think of another issue so emotionally one-sided as gun control. The stats are so hugely on the side of gun-rights activists it should be embarrassing for the "gun grabbers", but they keep going on and on. I used to be on the fence, until I realized there is no fence. The stats are massively biased toward showing how gun control doesn't diminish crime it's pathetic we're still arguing otherwise over such stupid nonsense as magazine size. Even a pump shot gun that has no mag can be loaded very quickly without much practice.

This argument is so fucked up that a weapon type responsible for less than 5% of homicides has taken center stage and a key piece of the argument is lowering how many rounds it can fire in a given time (and not by a large amount), even though it intuitively makes no sense to focus on this, and statistically has been shown to be ineffectual by scientific studies as well.

I'm honestly surprised how many otherwise-intelligent people are just so hard in the pants to limit access to guns in as many ways as they possibly can even though they have no data to support their arguments. It's just something they're stuck on in their head and refuse to let go of.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,963
47,858
136

I would love to know what you think you're going to prove with those charts?

If you do have a point from it, please tell me the conclusions you're drawing and if you think they are statistically significant or not. Be sure to be specific.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,963
47,858
136
Given this trend, more guns in fewer hands, it seems like we have a bright future ahead of us if we change no laws at all.

I can hardly think of another issue so emotionally one-sided as gun control. The stats are so hugely on the side of gun-rights activists it should be embarrassing for the "gun grabbers", but they keep going on and on. I used to be on the fence, until I realized there is no fence. The stats are massively biased toward showing how gun control doesn't diminish crime it's pathetic we're still arguing otherwise over such stupid nonsense as magazine size. Even a pump shot gun that has no mag can be loaded very quickly without much practice.

This argument is so fucked up that a weapon type responsible for less than 5% of homicides has taken center stage and a key piece of the argument is lowering how many rounds it can fire in a given time (and not by a large amount), even though it intuitively makes no sense to focus on this, and statistically has been shown to be ineffectual by scientific studies as well.

I'm honestly surprised how many otherwise-intelligent people are just so hard in the pants to limit access to guns in as many ways as they possibly can even though they have no data to support their arguments. It's just something they're stuck on in their head and refuse to let go of.

I'm not generally in favor of strict gun control myself, at least not from a crime control perspective. I think America would be much better off with fewer guns in the hands of individuals but I don't really think there's any viable way to do it.

The real benefits from gun control appears to come from a reduction in suicide rates, accidental deaths, etc. I firmly believe in educating people as to the risks inherent in purchasing guns. That's probably the most important thing we can do.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
I'm not generally in favor of strict gun control myself, at least not from a crime control perspective. I think America would be much better off with fewer guns in the hands of individuals but I don't really think there's any viable way to do it.

The real benefits from gun control appears to come from a reduction in suicide rates, accidental deaths, etc. I firmly believe in educating people as to the risks inherent in purchasing guns. That's probably the most important thing we can do.
Sounds good. In regard to accidental deaths I think great strides have been made in this, as rates of those have gone down. Unfortunately, short of an IQ test needed to buy a firearm I think they cannot be abolished.
 

Lithium381

Lifer
May 12, 2001
12,458
2
0
I'm not generally in favor of strict gun control myself, at least not from a crime control perspective. I think America would be much better off with fewer guns in the hands of individuals but I don't really think there's any viable way to do it.

The real benefits from gun control appears to come from a reduction in suicide rates, accidental deaths, etc. I firmly believe in educating people as to the risks inherent in purchasing guns. That's probably the most important thing we can do.

Why? There are already 300 million guns out there that DIDN'T cause a murder last year, or the last, or the past decade . .. guns aren't the problem. it's people.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,963
47,858
136
Why? There are already 300 million guns out there that DIDN'T cause a murder last year, or the last, or the past decade . .. guns aren't the problem. it's people.

I thought the rest of my post explained that. Statistically, guns are not very useful for protecting your family (you are more likely to hurt a family member than protect them), and increased gin ownership is associated with greater suicide and accidental death rates.

In short, I think guns overall cause more harm than good.
 

HumblePie

Lifer
Oct 30, 2000
14,667
440
126
I thought the rest of my post explained that. Statistically, guns are not very useful for protecting your family (you are more likely to hurt a family member than protect them), and increased gin ownership is associated with greater suicide and accidental death rates.

In short, I think guns overall cause more harm than good.

Umm, bogus.

I want to see your data you pulled that from that cross compares gun owners with families in the following categories

1) No incident during ownership and state length of ownership
2) Incident of gun being used for protection.
3) Incident of a tragedy such as accidental discharge or suicide from a firearm causing harm to a family member in a household that holds firearms.


I'll give you a hint, number 1 and number 2 aren't tracked very well right now. Number 2 averages in the low amount of millions of usages a year. Compare that with 18,000 suicides in 2010 by a firearm and that statement of yours is patently a false myth.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,963
47,858
136
Umm, bogus.

I want to see your data you pulled that from that cross compares gun owners with families in the following categories

1) No incident during ownership and state length of ownership
2) Incident of gun being used for protection.
3) Incident of a tragedy such as accidental discharge or suicide from a firearm causing harm to a family member in a household that holds firearms.


I'll give you a hint, number 1 and number 2 aren't tracked very well right now. Number 2 averages in the low amount of millions of usages a year. Compare that with 18,000 suicides in 2010 by a firearm and that statement of yours is patently a false myth.

Um, bogus.

The 'millions' of times guns are used for protection is actually itself a patently false myth that came from a common statistical error when trying to measure extremely improbable events. Specifically, those figures in the low millions came from old surveys where about 1% of those surveyed said they had used a gun defensively and from there extrapolated to millions. Measuring events that improbable by survey in that manner without controlling for this leads to hilarious overestimation. For example if I remember right and you compared the survey results to burglaries they indicated that guns were used in self defense about 200% of the times people were at home when their house was broken into. Needless to say, that is indicative of a very large statistical problem.

You also didn't account for injuries or accidental injuries and deaths, not to mention not accounting for the VERY suspect classifications of 'self defense'. (neighbors getting in an argument and one of them grabbing a gun can be considered self defense.) When you break it down to only deaths, less than one percent of people killed in a home are those there breaking in. Guess who almost all the others are? Your friends and family.

Research strongly indicates that the most likely victims of a gun you own are people you care about. That's why it is probably a bad idea to own one.

Forgive any problems, this was written on a phone. Haha.
 

zephyrprime

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2001
7,512
2
81
Why don't we ever talk about controlling crazy people? The fact of the matter is, we just let crazy people walk around the streets to fend for themselves. Society only intervenes AFTER they kill someone. (Most crazies don't ever kill anyone of course). We're too cheap to institutionalize people who show early warning signs.
 

HumblePie

Lifer
Oct 30, 2000
14,667
440
126
Um, bogus.

The 'millions' of times guns are used for protection is actually itself a patently false myth that came from a common statistical error when trying to measure extremely improbable events. Specifically, those figures in the low millions came from old surveys where about 1% of those surveyed said they had used a gun defensively and from there extrapolated to millions. Measuring events that improbable by survey in that manner without controlling for this leads to hilarious overestimation. For example if I remember right and you compared the survey results to burglaries they indicated that guns were used in self defense about 200% of the times people were at home when their house was broken into. Needless to say, that is indicative of a very large statistical problem.

You also didn't account for injuries or accidental injuries and deaths, not to mention not accounting for the VERY suspect classifications of 'self defense'. (neighbors getting in an argument and one of them grabbing a gun can be considered self defense.) When you break it down to only deaths, less than one percent of people killed in a home are those there breaking in. Guess who almost all the others are? Your friends and family.

Research strongly indicates that the most likely victims of a gun you own are people you care about. That's why it is probably a bad idea to own one.

Forgive any problems, this was written on a phone. Haha.


Wait, you consider Korean merchants in the 90's during the riots an improbable statistic? Consider home owners in New Orleans after Katrina an improbable statistic? You consider the lady in Georgia that shot a home invader 5 times in the face (guy didn't die) an improbably statistic? You count the students that scared off home invaders with their AR15 in recent weeks an improbable statistic?

You are nuts. Guns are used more often every day to save lives than to take them. Many law abiding gun owners have had to brandish their weapon to deter a potential attack against them. Those numbers aren't tracked and thus have to extrapolated through surveys. Improbable my ass.

And for the record I DID break it down. I said tragedy numbnuts, not deaths only. I said accidental discharge (of which could be deaths or just injuries DERP!) and suicides.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
Both sides fudge statistics. Here's one: A kitchen knife is more likely to be used on a family member than somebody breaking into the house.

Total suicide rates do appear to go up with gun ownership (makes it easier to do), but certainly a massive number of suicides by gun would have occurred anyway, just as a massive number of homicides by gun would have occurred anyway. For the guy looking to slaughter his family a gun is effective, but this happens with knives as well.

Thus, those numbers are really not terribly meaningful at face value.

A simpler, very digestible statistic is accidental deaths by gun. Obviously, without guns these don't happen and guns are solely to blame for them (well, specifically guns + negligence). That said, the number of accidental deaths are not all that high, and are diminishing over time, though surely they are high for those who've watched their kid shoot his brother by mistake.

Now it's beyond a shadow that the media makes a much bigger deal of mass shootings than one-off. A mass shooting of 20 kids gets more overall attention than 50 single shootings. And people using guns to defend themselves typically result in few, if any deaths, so these defense scenarios also don't get much attention. Public policy, because it deals with the stupid public, is disproportionately motivated by these large scale events.
 

HumblePie

Lifer
Oct 30, 2000
14,667
440
126
Both sides fudge statistics. Here's one: A kitchen knife is more likely to be used on a family member than somebody breaking into the house.

Anecdotal evidence, I've had more cuts on my fingers and hands from knives from accidental self inflictions than used in defense of my life :) I actually lost the tip of a finger to a knife :(

Still a silly analogy.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,963
47,858
136
Wait, you consider Korean merchants in the 90's during the riots an improbable statistic? Consider home owners in New Orleans after Katrina an improbable statistic? You consider the lady in Georgia that shot a home invader 5 times in the face (guy didn't die) an improbably statistic? You count the students that scared off home invaders with their AR15 in recent weeks an improbable statistic?

You are nuts. Guns are used more often every day to save lives than to take them. Many law abiding gun owners have had to brandish their weapon to deter a potential attack against them. Those numbers aren't tracked and thus have to extrapolated through surveys. Improbable my ass.

And for the record I DID break it down. I said tragedy numbnuts, not deaths only. I said accidental discharge (of which could be deaths or just injuries DERP!) and suicides.

We are talking apples and oranges. You are using anecdotes, I'm talking statistics. You will notice that I also did it without insulting you. I'm sorry to hear you think the quality of my posts has declined, but my guess is that it tracks much more with whether or not you agree with me than their actual quality.

I don't think you understand what I said earlier about the surveys. When you have extremely low probability events, the error rate is magnified. Think about it this way: if I have a result that is 50% but my error increases it 1%, I have introduced a 2% (1/50) error in this. If my result is 1% and I have the same 1% fluctuation my error rate is 100%. This is why you have to be careful with small numbers like that. The error becomes even worse when you use that number to generalize to large populations as they did in the defense case as your error becomes hugely magnified. (in America if you go from 1% to 2% we just invented about 3 million annual defensive gun uses). The results you mentioned before fell victim to this, and so they are totally unreliable.

That is also how from those results you can get the fact that people used guns to defend themselves from 200% of the burglaries they were home for. When your stats give you that answer you have made an egregious error.

Deaths are the most concrete data we have, as it is difficult to hide bodies. We know that intruders and other such unwanted people comprise a vanishingly small number of the people killed by guns. The vast majority are household members or friends. If your purpose for owning a gun is to make your family safer, that seems pretty important.

From all the data I have seen, mortality risk for a family goes UP with a gun in the house, not down. That indicates to me that they are quite poor at protecting people.
 

HumblePie

Lifer
Oct 30, 2000
14,667
440
126
We are talking apples and oranges. You are using anecdotes, I'm talking statistics. You will notice that I also did it without insulting you. I'm sorry to hear you think the quality of my posts has declined, but my guess is that it tracks much more with whether or not you agree with me than their actual quality.

I don't think you understand what I said earlier about the surveys. When you have extremely low probability events, the error rate is magnified. Think about it this way: if I have a result that is 50% but my error increases it 1%, I have introduced a 2% (1/50) error in this. If my result is 1% and I have the same 1% fluctuation my error rate is 100%. This is why you have to be careful with small numbers like that. The error becomes even worse when you use that number to generalize to large populations as they did in the defense case as your error becomes hugely magnified. (in America if you go from 1% to 2% we just invented about 3 million annual defensive gun uses). The results you mentioned before fell victim to this, and so they are totally unreliable.

That is also how from those results you can get the fact that people used guns to defend themselves from 200% of the burglaries they were home for. When your stats give you that answer you have made an egregious error.

Deaths are the most concrete data we have, as it is difficult to hide bodies. We know that intruders and other such unwanted people comprise a vanishingly small number of the people killed by guns. The vast majority are household members or friends. If your purpose for owning a gun is to make your family safer, that seems pretty important.

From all the data I have seen, mortality risk for a family goes UP with a gun in the house, not down. That indicates to me that they are quite poor at protecting people.

So you are saying that survey's of prison inmates, and phone calls to gun owners, especially those as members of the NRA, who all answer that they were either stopped (the criminals) or had stopped (law abiding citizens) a criminal act from happening or was happening with a gun as low probability events.

Crime is not a low probability event. Not at all. Much of it IS prevented as it is being started or in the commission of. Much of which is not reported. Even such crimes being stopped and reported do not go into details most of the time on how they were stopped or why. Those statistics simply aren't tracked by law enforcement. Nor can anything not reported be tracked. But when you consider a large sample size of inmates have stated they were stopped by a citizen with a gun on previous occasions and ran, how can you state that these are rare events?

You have the original old Dr Kleck survey done in the 90's and many more since then with more refined techniques.

Not to mention what IS tracked is the regularity of both crime and gun ownership. Typically states that have more gun ownership also have less crime. It's not a direct causation obviously, but it is a good correlation.

Even the Dr Kleck and Gertz study stated in an average year only 1.3% of the entire US population will use a gun in a defensive use to prevent a crime. This is done by brandishing, shooting, or even just mentioning ownership of said gun to deter a potential crime or stop one in action. 1.3% is not really THAT large of a number when you think about it as a percentage. That's that 2.5 million rate that gets bandied about. Still, 2.5mill uses is far in excess of 18,000 suicides or the even lesser number of accidental homicides OR accidental shooting that only lead to injuries.

You are far more likely, given the above numbers, to be involved in an auto accident leading to serious injury or fatality than any of those numbers in the previous paragraph. There is also far more guns in ownership than cars.

Notice I said used to prevent CRIME, and didn't stipulate the type of crime. Crime can be considered trespassing. Here in Texas I have family with lots of ranch land that has to go patrolling every so often. They use guns all the time, EVERYDAY, to prevent crimes such as poaching on their lands. Much of it is never reported even if they shoot at someone (they rarely ever shoot to hit a person just scare them off).

Just because you live in a little corner of America and have never seen how people use firearms defensively to prevent crime every day doesn't mean it's not a valid statistic.

There have been a few other surveys done using various sampling sizes and most tend to corroborate what Kleck and Gertz found. Even Kleck and Gertz adjusted DOWNWARDS from their initial sampling. The original survey done had 222 respondents out of 4799 said they used a gun defensively and that number was adjusted downward to 66 for various reasons such as accounting for possible oversampling for a given region. Areas that don't have a lot of crime aren't going to have a lot of defensive use, nor are areas that have strict gun control.

The NIJ http://www.nij.gov/topics/crime/welcome.htm also had similar findings as well as the Clinton Justice Department.

Even law enforcement tracking rape statistics concludes in an average year women stop the process of being raped with their guns on average of 200,000 times a year. This is not a prevention but an actually stoppage of a crime in action.

Calling all these low or rare is intellectually dishonest as harm by accidents or suicides from guns is even FAR more rare of a case every year than defensive uses. Which was the comparison I was initially asserting in the first place.
 

xj0hnx

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2007
9,262
3
76
If you'd like to see how fast a magazine can be changed by a competitive shooter.... look on youtube for Thomas Tomasi. I think that's how his name is spelled.

Travis Tomasie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hgdq1FBYTUE

M4 speed reload ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6Ta8t16lrk

AK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHYARkMZiig

Travis again actually shooting ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GsmUzSBaUQ

http://www.youtube.com/results?sear....4.4.0.80.589.8.8.0...0.0...1ac.1.QG4lenlFohw

The point is that is is easy to reload, factory mags are more reliable, reducing mag capacity is just a useless idea. And revolvers, lol the video of the guy firing 12 shoots on target with one reload in in under 3 seconds, with a little practice a normal person could do it within 6 seconds, not even enough time for someone to think about attacking you.
 
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xj0hnx

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2007
9,262
3
76
We actually don't. Individual gun owners now each own more guns per capita, but the proportion of American households with guns has declined.

Can you provide a link to proof of that, because I don't believe you.
 

Lithium381

Lifer
May 12, 2001
12,458
2
0
Gun deaths annually 14k
Handgun Deaths: 10k
Rifle Deaths 600

THESE INCLUDE SUICIDE. Estimated 6k handguns are HOMICIDES.

If you want to save lives, maybe go for the "low hanging fruit" and work on handguns first?

Better yet, work on drunk driving, of which causes 11k deaths annually. That's only a 1/3 of the total number of traffic related deaths. Why aren't we looking at that? that's MANY times higher than death by "assault weapon".

Or 10,000 deaths per year from bludgeoning with a blunt object such as a hammer or fists? That's even more! What are we doing about these travesties?

Oops, forgot it's not part of the agenda.
 

xj0hnx

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2007
9,262
3
76
I think eskimo is right, i seem to recall seeing that statistic somehwere, i'll look in a bit.

I can believe that less new homes are buying guns, but not that less homes have guns than say 10 years ago. Even if it were true I don't see how it could even reach a statistical relevance.