• Guest, The rules for the P & N subforum have been updated to prohibit "ad hominem" or personal attacks against other posters. See the full details in the post "Politics and News Rules & Guidelines."

Employers Slash Jobs, Consumer Confidence At Lows, Economic Growth Negative This Qtr

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,387
140
116
Most politicians are saying short-term correction, but most economists are predicting a deep recession. Which one is it? Only time will tell, but news of huge job cuts, record low consumer confidence and negative economic growth are just compounding the issues we're already facing.

Text

Employers slashed 63,000 jobs in February, the most in five years and the starkest sign yet that the country is heading dangerously toward recession or is in one already.
Text

According to the RBC Cash Index, confidence sank to a mark of 33.1 in early March, down from 48.5 in February. The new reading was the worst since the index began in 2002 and surpassed the previous low reached in February.
Text

President Bush's top economic adviser said Friday the nation's economic growth could dip into negative territory for the current quarter, an assessment that tracks with many outside experts but is the most pessimistic to come so far from the White House.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,214
2
0
Official government permission is that we're in "slow growth" right now. Who are you going to believe, economists or the government? My money is on the second one. I think we're in slow growth. Bernanke even said so. No recession. I did not have sexual relations with that woman.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
The word play is sickening.
It's not word play, the terms mean very different things. Slow growth means our real GDP is going up, just at a slower rate than usual. Recession means our real GDP is going down. The first is a small problem that affects confidence more than anything else, while the second is a larger problem that requires stronger measures to combat it.

But is anyone really surprised that "consumer confidence" is down? When you can't turn around without hearing some self-described "expert" (incorrectly) using the word recession every five minutes, who WOULDN'T have low confidence?
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,657
13,735
136
Meh. Any level of growth that doesn't exceed population growth and inflation impacts the middle and working classes negatively. And that doesn't even account for the ongoing concentration of wealth and income at the very, very top, which has a similar effect.

And, uhh, face it, guys- any economy that can't be kept out of a tailspin with huge debt acquisition at every level and really cheap money has deep and fundamental problems...
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Meh. Any level of growth that doesn't exceed population growth and inflation impacts the middle and working classes negatively. And that doesn't even account for the ongoing concentration of wealth and income at the very, very top, which has a similar effect.

And, uhh, face it, guys- any economy that can't be kept out of a tailspin with huge debt acquisition at every level and really cheap money has deep and fundamental problems...
What does any of that MEAN? You look at virtually any group of people predicting recession, and what you get is a lot of pseudo-economic sounding words strung together followed by the conclusion that we're heading for massive and unavoidable catastrophe. And when things take the smallest upward step, it's the same word string approach (sometimes virtually the same words) predicting incredible wealth for everybody. And not ONCE have any of those people been right.

The problem is that pretty much everyone, and this includes economists who should know better, ignores the cyclical nature of economic growth and extrapolates every bit of current data infinitely far in whatever direction we happen to be moving at the moment. And both arguments ignore the self-correcting nature of the economy and the solid underlying core of the economy that ends up dragging it back to baseline when it goes too high or too low. Anybody who can look at a graph can easily see this cyclical trend repeated over and over and over and over, yet EVERY rise comes with predictions of a new economy that will never run out of steam and EVERY dip comes with suggestions that we all stock up on ammo and beef jerky.

Just to give ONE example...a weak dollar. Yes, it's bad for several reasons, but it also makes American exports cheaper...that's why China intentionally keeps their currency weak, to make buying goods from China more attractive to other countries. As we export more, the dollar goes up in value and eventually things even out. This is why China has to play a lot of tricks to keep their currency weak, a weak currency doesn't stay that way when you have a strong export economy. This is a HUGE oversimplification, but the point is that trying to extrapolate economic trends on a straight line just doesn't work. Relax.
 
Dec 30, 2004
12,560
2
76
The infamouse Jpeyton strikes again!

Take an economics class, it's a recession if it's 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP.

Ugh. This is 101 stuff.

Would you at least skip all the BS and tell us what you really want? We've already proven you're probably the most anti-US board member here. Which is ok, free speech and all, but can you tell us why? What is your agenda? Socialized heathcare? Bigger Welfare checks?

We de-regulated the financial sector, what else did you expect? This is part of the learning process; next time lenders will be much more picky about who they purchase their securities from and what kind of loans that institution is making. I wouldn't doubt that you're one of the people who took out an AMR for far more than you possibly hope to pay back; as these people are the main source of noise about the economy these days.
 

NoStateofMind

Diamond Member
Oct 14, 2005
9,716
6
76
Originally posted by: Rainsford
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
The word play is sickening.
It's not word play, the terms mean very different things. Slow growth means our real GDP is going up, just at a slower rate than usual. Recession means our real GDP is going down. The first is a small problem that affects confidence more than anything else, while the second is a larger problem that requires stronger measures to combat it.
It is wordplay when when they have the numbers to show we are in a recession and instead of saying that, they repeat some rosier picture like "slow growth". I do not trust the words that come out of the FED, can you blame me? :p

But is anyone really surprised that "consumer confidence" is down? When you can't turn around without hearing some self-described "expert" (incorrectly) using the word recession every five minutes, who WOULDN'T have low confidence?
Sure repetitive phrases have an effect on confidence, but that loss of confidence comes from solid proof. The housing bubble is what I speak of. 8 million upside down on their houses with another 8 million being in the same pinch within the next year. Add to that that the FED decreased interest rates to spur growth but it didn't happen. Now we must sink into recession (which is now here) and deal with a weak dollar while trying to fill up on increasing gas prices. People are feeling the pinch, it isn't just the "doomsdayers" on TV.

 

NoStateofMind

Diamond Member
Oct 14, 2005
9,716
6
76
Originally posted by: soccerballtux
The infamouse Jpeyton strikes again!

Take an economics class, it's a recession if it's 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP.

Ugh. This is 101 stuff.
Sure the "definition" is what you say, but to me and everyone else who is feeling the pinch, those definitions mean squat to my paycheck/grocery store/gas/mortgage etc.


Would you at least skip all the BS and tell us what you really want? We've already proven you're probably the most anti-US board member here. Which is ok, free speech and all, but can you tell us why? What is your agenda? Socialized heathcare? Bigger Welfare checks?
I think the bolded part is a bit uncalled for. If he didn't like America he wouldn't be apart of the voting process and sure as hell wouldn't care about the economy. Besides, that tactic of "patriotism" has been over played by the neo-conservatives, we have gotten wise to that trick ;)




 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,249
683
126
While yes overall the US is headed towards recession there are many states that are booming economically speaking.

The biggest problem is inflation due to gas prices and speculation. There is a very real chance the US as a whole could enter a period of stagflation during 2008.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Originally posted by: Rainsford
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
The word play is sickening.
It's not word play, the terms mean very different things. Slow growth means our real GDP is going up, just at a slower rate than usual. Recession means our real GDP is going down. The first is a small problem that affects confidence more than anything else, while the second is a larger problem that requires stronger measures to combat it.
It is wordplay when when they have the numbers to show we are in a recession and instead of saying that, they repeat some rosier picture like "slow growth". I do not trust the words that come out of the FED, can you blame me? :p

But is anyone really surprised that "consumer confidence" is down? When you can't turn around without hearing some self-described "expert" (incorrectly) using the word recession every five minutes, who WOULDN'T have low confidence?
Sure repetitive phrases have an effect on confidence, but that loss of confidence comes from solid proof. The housing bubble is what I speak of. 8 million upside down on their houses with another 8 million being in the same pinch within the next year. Add to that that the FED decreased interest rates to spur growth but it didn't happen. Now we must sink into recession (which is now here) and deal with a weak dollar while trying to fill up on increasing gas prices. People are feeling the pinch, it isn't just the "doomsdayers" on TV.
I won't deny that some people are having a hard time of it, and that the group is larger than it was a year ago...but what I'm talking about it is people trying to apply that to the entire population. Yes, if you had a stupid mortgage or you lost your job, things are pretty bad for you...and because the group of people this applies to is good sized, this means the economy as a whole is experience some problems.

But here's the thing, and it's the point nearly everyone is missing...you and I don't care about the economy as a whole. Sure, it's interesting to discuss, but I'm actually in better financial shape than I was when the economy was booming, why should the big picture of what the economy is doing affect me? The answer is that it doesn't, but people as a whole are convinced that they are directly, and significantly, affected by "the economy". People put off big purchases, they save more and spend less, which is what is meant by "consumer confidence". If you lost your shirt, your problem isn't a lack of confidence, it's a lack of money. But for most people, nothing has changed from a year or two ago, yet they are convinced that the "recession" means they should horde their money in shoe boxes under the bed. And THAT kind of thing can cause some real problems.

Just to give you an example, I just bought a condo in August, right when it was becoming really obvious that there was going to be a rocky road ahead for the economy as a whole. And out of the woodwork, I had everybody and their brother telling me I shouldn't buy anything right now because "the economy is headed towards a recession". While we can debate whether that's true or not, what the hell do *I* care what the economy is doing? It was a good place at a good price that I could afford, why wouldn't I buy it? And the thing is, nobody could explain WHY "the economy" should affect my condo buying, but they were all convinced it should.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,261
68
86
Originally posted by: Mavtek3100
Originally posted by: LegendKiller


It's all cyclical.
Have you ever asked yourself the question why it's cyclical? Who benefits? Who gets hurt?
Why is it cyclical? Because jackasses can't contain their irrationality both on the up and downswing.

"OMG, TECH STOCKS...GOBBLE GOBBLE GOBBLE"

"OMG, TECH STOCKS, WORTHLESS, IT ALL SUCKS, RUN!"

"OMG, HOUSES, NEVER LOSE! GOBBLE GOBBLE GOBBLE"

"OMG, HOUSES, NOT IMPERVIOUS, RUN!"

It's basic psychology that people buy into greed and sell in fear. It's been happening for hundreds of years and will keep happening. It doesn't matter if it's tulip bulbs or tech stocks, same shit, different century.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,520
0
0
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Mavtek3100
Originally posted by: LegendKiller


It's all cyclical.
Have you ever asked yourself the question why it's cyclical? Who benefits? Who gets hurt?
Why is it cyclical? Because jackasses can't contain their irrationality both on the up and downswing.

"OMG, TECH STOCKS...GOBBLE GOBBLE GOBBLE"

"OMG, TECH STOCKS, WORTHLESS, IT ALL SUCKS, RUN!"

"OMG, HOUSES, NEVER LOSE! GOBBLE GOBBLE GOBBLE"

"OMG, HOUSES, NOT IMPERVIOUS, RUN!"

It's basic psychology that people buy into greed and sell in fear. It's been happening for hundreds of years and will keep happening. It doesn't matter if it's tulip bulbs or tech stocks, same shit, different century.
I don't think it's entirely the fault of people without a sense of restraint, I think it's also that economic success breeds success, and failure breeds failure. A rapidly growing economy allows for more available capital to further grow the economy, a shrinking economy has the opposite result.

Not that goofy people aren't partially to blame as well. Our last boom/bust cycle came about because people had no sense of proportion of how much tech stocks should really be worth, so they just kept buying and buying, trying to get rich before everyone realized the stocks had no actual value underlying their prices. This current problem came about because a lot of people made a silly assumption about the direction the real estate market would go long term and bet their house on being right.
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
56,284
4,695
126
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Most politicians are saying short-term correction, but most economists are predicting a deep recession. Which one is it? Only time will tell, but news of huge job cuts, record low consumer confidence and negative economic growth are just compounding the issues we're already facing.
Get rid of all that fluff...

Dude, the economy is in fine shape. Just have another drink of the Kool-Aid and relax...It'll all be better soon...
 
Dec 30, 2004
12,560
2
76
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Originally posted by: soccerballtux
The infamouse Jpeyton strikes again!

Take an economics class, it's a recession if it's 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP.

Ugh. This is 101 stuff.
Sure the "definition" is what you say, but to me and everyone else who is feeling the pinch, those definitions mean squat to my paycheck/grocery store/gas/mortgage etc.


Would you at least skip all the BS and tell us what you really want? We've already proven you're probably the most anti-US board member here. Which is ok, free speech and all, but can you tell us why? What is your agenda? Socialized heathcare? Bigger Welfare checks?
I think the bolded part is a bit uncalled for. If he didn't like America he wouldn't be apart of the voting process and sure as hell wouldn't care about the economy. Besides, that tactic of "patriotism" has been over played by the neo-conservatives, we have gotten wise to that trick ;)
The FED isn't some mysterious organization that you can't hope to understand. They aren't in fear of losing their jobs so there's no reason for them to not tell you what they're thinking. You just have to learn the verbage and you'll be fine. They don't say recession because imagine the headlines that would create and the ripples through stupid people who don't know there's a difference between the Fed and the Feds.

As for the bolded part, well, so I actually may have confused LK with Jpeyton in another thread, but they are both equally trolls....anyways, in the thread about the F-22 we all went back and forth several times about the benefits/negatives to the F-22 program, and it was basically determined Jpeyton (and LK too IIRC, but not so sure) was using absolutely zero comprehensible logic in his condemnation of the program (by this I mean we disproved him on every objection he had, yet he still flamed); and someone made the comment "It's pretty clear Jpeyton is against everything American". Who says you can't vote against the country? I'm not using this as an argument to shut him up like the neocons might, just to deter others from replying if they don't like baiting trolls.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,261
68
86
Originally posted by: soccerballtux
Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Originally posted by: soccerballtux
The infamouse Jpeyton strikes again!

Take an economics class, it's a recession if it's 2 consecutive quarters of reduced GDP.

Ugh. This is 101 stuff.
Sure the "definition" is what you say, but to me and everyone else who is feeling the pinch, those definitions mean squat to my paycheck/grocery store/gas/mortgage etc.


Would you at least skip all the BS and tell us what you really want? We've already proven you're probably the most anti-US board member here. Which is ok, free speech and all, but can you tell us why? What is your agenda? Socialized heathcare? Bigger Welfare checks?[/Q
I think the bolded part is a bit uncalled for. If he didn't like America he wouldn't be apart of the voting process and sure as hell wouldn't care about the economy. Besides, that tactic of "patriotism" has been over played by the neo-conservatives, we have gotten wise to that trick ;)
The FED isn't some mysterious organization that you can't hope to understand. They aren't in fear of losing their jobs so there's no reason for them to not tell you what they're thinking. You just have to learn the verbage and you'll be fine. They don't say recession because imagine the headlines that would create and the ripples through stupid people who don't know there's a difference between the Fed and the Feds.

As for the bolded part, well, so I actually may have confused LK with Jpeyton in another thread, but they are both equally trolls....anyways, in the thread about the F-22 we all went back and forth several times about the benefits/negatives to the F-22 program, and it was basically determined Jpeyton (and LK too IIRC, but not so sure) was using absolutely zero comprehensible logic in his condemnation of the program (by this I mean we disproved him on every objection he had, yet he still flamed); and someone made the comment "It's pretty clear Jpeyton is against everything American". Who says you can't vote against the country? I'm not using this as an argument to shut him up like the neocons might, just to deter others from replying if they don't like baiting trolls.
What the fuck are you talking about sparky? I never argued against the F-22 and I didn't really post in that thread, if I did at all. Get a fricking clue.

As far as me being a "troll", I post far more content for people to *learn* here than you'll ever post in your life, other than bullshit attack posts like above. Why don't you go and answer some of my "troll" posts as opposed to sniping at me like a
wimp? Perhaps then you might learn something.

I think if you ignore the people who are so pro-Ron Paul that they can't stand the idea that I know more than them and can trounce them at every point, you'll find that most people value my contribution.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,912
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: BoomerD
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Most politicians are saying short-term correction, but most economists are predicting a deep recession. Which one is it? Only time will tell, but news of huge job cuts, record low consumer confidence and negative economic growth are just compounding the issues we're already facing.
Get rid of all that fluff...

Dude, the economy is in fine shape. Just have another drink of the Republican Kool-Aid and relax...It'll all be better soon...
Corrected for you.

and of course if the Dems take the Whitehouse this is all the Dems fault.

It's already their fault because they got slight edge in Congress.

 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
56,284
4,695
126
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: BoomerD
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Most politicians are saying short-term correction, but most economists are predicting a deep recession. Which one is it? Only time will tell, but news of huge job cuts, record low consumer confidence and negative economic growth are just compounding the issues we're already facing.
Get rid of all that fluff...

Dude, the economy is in fine shape. Just have another drink of the Republican Kool-Aid and relax...It'll all be better soon...
Corrected for you.

and of course if the Dems take the Whitehouse this is all the Dems fault.

It's already their fault because they got slight edge in Congress.

Who is that masked man?

Haven't seen you in a while Dave...How ya been?

I really didn't think it needed clarification, as Kool-Aid is a registered trademark of the Republican National Committee. ;)
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,912
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: BoomerD
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: BoomerD
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Most politicians are saying short-term correction, but most economists are predicting a deep recession. Which one is it? Only time will tell, but news of huge job cuts, record low consumer confidence and negative economic growth are just compounding the issues we're already facing.
Get rid of all that fluff...

Dude, the economy is in fine shape. Just have another drink of the Republican Kool-Aid and relax...It'll all be better soon...
Corrected for you.

and of course if the Dems take the Whitehouse this is all the Dems fault.

It's already their fault because they got slight edge in Congress.
Who is that masked man?

Haven't seen you in a while Dave...How ya been?

I really didn't think it needed clarification, as Kool-Aid is a registered trademark of the Republican National Committee. ;)
Thanks for the welcome. A rarity under the new dominion.

Surviving in New Jersey. We haven't been to the city yet but I did take debi to Liberty State Park the day after she got here a month ago.

I see everything I said is dominating the Forum and the news these days and the Repubs on full defensive. Nice going guys. Whether the country can be saved only time will tell but I don't see any signs of a turn around yet at this point.

First big step is actually getting the Repubs out of the Oval Office seat.

If that doesn't happen, it's end game.

 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,657
13,735
136
From LK-

It's all cyclical.
Of course it is, and the severity of a trough is largely dictated by the extent of the overshoot of the previous peak. I think we can agree that the recent overshoot is quite large, particularly wrt housing and debt acquisition of all kinds.

Which can be moderated by governmental spending and reduced interest rates... also by increased confidence and debt acquisition in the private sector...

Uhh, but wait just a sec... We're in a period of huge governmental deficits already, and record low interest rates, too... record debt levels... but the economy is still declining...

Who's gonna step in to moderate the situation- the tooth fairy?

From my perspective, both the Fed and the Govt overreacted badly to the decline in 2000-2001, merely putting off and intensifying a much needed correction, encouraging further speculation and irresponsibility, greatly diminishing the reserves required to restore a truly healthy economy...

Severe economic downturns have a way of affected us all, Rainsford, other than those having extreme wealth, or people so poor they have nothing to lose, anyway. As problems in one sector of the economy lap over into others, demand and employment are affected negatively, creating an even wider ripple effect. Honest going concerns unrelated to the original problem area can easily go under when demand for their product slackens severely, cashflow goes to hell, and debt maintenance becomes impossible.

What's the most significant purchase in most people's lives? What's the one thing that they spend more on than anything else? What's the one thing they can draw on if times get really, really tough?

Their home, and the equity in it, which is precisely the problem area in today's economy. We've never experienced a general downturn based on that part of the system, so we're entering terra incognita- nobody knows what will happen...
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY