Elon Musk: Universal Basic Income will be necessary

[baydude]

According to Elon Musk, robots will take over and make everything extremely cheap to produce. Massive unemployment will cause the need for Universal Basic Income across the globe. This will lead to the bigger social problem of self fulfillment and how people are going to have meaning in their lives if they don't feel needed.

 

[pcgeek11]

He have a crystal ball.

No.

I didn't think so.

 

[Moonbeam]

If robots can supply abundance making human labor for huge numbers of people impossible to find, that very abundance will obviate a need for much income since abundance means cheap. But the question of meaning is already real today. People have material goods at least in the Western world but they have no satisfactory sense that their wishes for the directions society is taking is under their control. People are angry about that in my opinion and an angry public isn't a good thing. Our democracy needs a lot of work. Maybe robots will give us more time to do something about that.

 

[Meghan54]

He have a crystal ball.

No.

I didn't think so.

Probably a better one than you have, unless the businesses you've established have some forward outlook into current manufacturing trends than those built by Musk.

Then again, you haven't accomplished anything on the scale of what Musk has done in manufacturing, have you?

Didn't think so.

 

[brycejones]

He have a crystal ball.

No.

I didn't think so.

Do you think he is wrong? Why?

 

[HamburgerBoy]

In this context, universal basic income is just a nice way of saying government subsidies for owners of the robots (aka guys like Musk). UBI is completely unaffordable unless you kill most/all other government subsidies, and if you do that, it actually hurts the poor the most, those that take far more in benefits than they pay back. imo the more realistic doom and gloom scenario (assuming people can't simply find work in robotics and the world keeps moving forward) is that people basically have all the material goods they could want thanks to cheap, decentralized alternative energy and personal robots/servants, and demand for a corporation's goods are cut infinitely thin as worldwide competition brings the production of everything to its most inexpensive potential. As a result, most people sit around being degenerates and only a small minority continue to innovate out of personal motivation. But I don't think that scenario is particularly accurate either (and it's utopian in its own way as a kind of revival of the idyllic 19th century tinkerer/inventor occupation).

If robots can supply abundance making human labor for huge numbers of people impossible to find, that very abundance will obviate a need for much income since abundance means cheap.

This too.

 

[Mai72]

Musk is just making an educated guess. If you look at where we are headed he might be correct. Automation is only going to get better. Computers, smartphones, and robots are getting smarter. VR will be a huge reality in 5-10 years and with that we'll probably see a massive shift to living our lives thru that world.

When I look at Amazons new store, Google's driverless cars and trucks and Amazon drones I see a world where we are going to be increasingly not needed. Government jobs like teachers, fire fighters and police officers will always be needed. The same for computer science, engineers, and doctors. And, others I haven't mentioned. Those jobs can also be disrupted as well. Public servant workers need tax dollars. If those tax dollars dry up, we will need less public servants. Everything is interrelated.

 

[ivwshane]

I've heard this storey before. In the 50's-60's we were told automation would lead to less hours worked and more free time, what ended up happening is wages stagnated and Americans worked more hours per week.

With the party of anti-government, anti-worker, pro business, and pro capitalism at the expense of everything else, in charge, I don't see UBI ever happening and the current trends will continue.

In an enlightened society I could see the move away from profit driven results and material enrichment to the pursuit of science and the arts. But we don't live in such a society and I could see idiocracy happening before a golden age of enlightenment.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Someone should ask Musk how much he is going to have to give up since only the wealthy will have money.

Unless we have a global population of perhaps a tenth of what it know is resources will always be an issue no matter what we do about the concept of money and even then I'm not sure.

 

[Ichinisan]

Historically, innovations and technology have always eliminated certain types of jobs. It has been happening for thousands of years. People still keep finding niches where human skills and labor are needed.

Maybe this will be different, I don't know...

 

[greatnoob]

In this context, universal basic income is just a nice way of saying government subsidies for owners of the robots (aka guys like Musk). UBI is completely unaffordable unless you kill most/all other government subsidies, and if you do that, it actually hurts the poor the most, those that take far more in benefits than they pay back.

The entire point is that businesses will be taxed and money will be transferred from efficient, high output->high profit businesses that can afford to automate production, to the workers that will lose their jobs. I don't understand where you got government subsidies from or how this is even remotely related to a type of social welfare floor Musk is talking about.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Historically, innovations and technology have always eliminated certain types of jobs. It has been happening for thousands of years. People still keep finding niches where human skills and labor are needed.

Maybe this will be different, I don't know...

This is fundamentally different because we have a trend towards removing humans from labor and from activities which needed human thought. No position is really safe. No manufacturing jobs, service industries, most professions. That leaves a small core of individuals to do what little can be done like assist the progression of machines and those who control them the fantastically rich, beyond what we've known. This is how we get the Morlocks and Eloi.

 

[soulcougher73]

Ive been saying this for like 20 years. I think he actually got all that from me at some point. Some people cant see past today. Others can see where the world is heading. He is one of those people, as am i.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

The entire point is that businesses will be taxed and money will be transferred from efficient, high output->high profit businesses that can afford to automate production, to the workers that will lose their jobs. I don't understand where you got government subsidies from or how this is even remotely related to a type of social welfare floor Musk is talking about.

Musk is talking about an intermediate step, likely short lived. If machines can replace people in virtualy every task including self maintenence then "business" itself is redundant. Turn it on and get stuff. At that point those who control the machine control everyone because almost traditional sense.

Universal income makes no sense when viewed in terms of the world he wishes to create. When no one has a job who will buy his cars? When power and wealth are in his hands will he and others give almost all of it away? No they will not. Musk had a fit about a union worker if I recall correctly.

This is not about money or income. It's about power and power is the ability to do what one wants. Who has that in Musks new world? Musk.

 

[NTMBK]

I don't understand why people feel the need to reinvent the benefits system. This "universal basic income" is just a less effective benefits system, which will give less money to those who really need it and more money to those who don't.

 

[Paratus]

Musk has a point. There are two reasons why he does. We don't practice capitalism and we don't care about producing consumers.

While Moonbeam is correct that abundance in a capitalistic market should mean cheap goods and services, it won't in the bastardized version we practice. To drive down market prices requires competition and rational consumers with price and product knowledge.

It's in a company's best interest to neither provide accurate pricing information, nor allow competition. So what do we see? Consolidation of companies across all businesses reducing competition.

Where they can we also see price obfuscation.

• Mortgages
• Credit
• Financial Service
• Telecom services
• Airline Service
• Medical Service
• Etc

All do their very best to prevent comparison of prices further reducing the price lowering effect of a capitalistic market.

Now governments can make regulations to enforce good market conditions but ask youself whether congress is interested in writing new regulations currently.

Finally the second point is capitalism is beginning to fail in making consumers. Markets require consumers. To be a consumer one must have money. Money is work and work is being devalued by business in an effort to reduce expenses. This reduces the number of consumers in the market.

Basic income is one fix for this problem.

 

[1prophet]

Do you think he is wrong? Why?

For the same reason he is so successful with Tesla and Space X, he looks at money as a means not an end, something that is anathema to most of our "profits only matter" interlocking directorate corporate business environment,

Trickle down didn't work when the so called job creators pushed it just like this new form of feel good repackaged trickle down won't work, because the people in power who weren't interested in sharing the wealth as higher paid jobs and benefits certainly aren't going to shower society with unconditional money.

The new Robot Bogeymen is just another farce to keep the eyes of even our so called enlightened individuals off the real problem, profits extracted at the expense of human beings and the environment under conditions these greedy bastards wouldn't work or live under themselves.

 

[Ichinisan]

This is fundamentally different because we have a trend towards removing humans from labor and from activities which needed human thought. No position is really safe. No manufacturing jobs, service industries, most professions. That leaves a small core of individuals to do what little can be done like assist the progression of machines and those who control them the fantastically rich, beyond what we've known. This is how we get the Morlocks and Eloi.

Humans used to tediously mill grain by hand. Then we used mules. Then we used windmills.

There are more humans than ever (and probably fewer mules per-human than ever).

But you're right about the thought-perception thing. Who knows. There may always be some things that humans are better at. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[Ichinisan]

The entire point is that businesses will be taxed and money will be transferred from efficient, high output->high profit businesses that can afford to automate production, to the workers that will lose their jobs. I don't understand where you got government subsidies from or how this is even remotely related to a type of social welfare floor Musk is talking about.

How would the businesses have any income to tax if no one had money to spend in the first place? Money and wealth would be entirely fake if it's not based on human effort and actual resources.

 

[greatnoob]

How would the businesses have any income to tax if no one had money to spend in the first place? Money and wealth would be entirely fake if it's not based on human effort and actual resources.

Low- skill human labour that is replaced with capital is what I'm talking about. Not everybody is going to be jobless all of a sudden. Automation happens gradually and mostly in retail and manufacturing sorts of businesses. You'll still have high-skill jobs like programmers, engineers, doctors, lawyers and a plethora of ones I can't think of ATM. These people will be spending money while low-skilled, high-labour workers would be made redundant.

 

[mizzou]

ubi would have to be way lower then a working wage. would you rather get a basic income of $30k a year or work 40 hours a week for $33k a year?

Hell, people will work their entire lives just to get a UBI level of lifestyle for retirement...so whats the incentive to work?

If peoplr who work STILL get UBI on top of their wages then it would be an icentive to work...but i dont see how that actually would help anyone better then whst we have now

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Musk has a point. There are two reasons why he does. We don't practice capitalism and we don't care about producing consumers.

While Moonbeam is correct that abundance in a capitalistic market should mean cheap goods and services, it won't in the bastardized version we practice. To drive down market prices requires competition and rational consumers with price and product knowledge.

It's in a company's best interest to neither provide accurate pricing information, nor allow competition. So what do we see? Consolidation of companies across all businesses reducing competition.

Where they can we also see price obfuscation.

• Mortgages
• Credit
• Financial Service
• Telecom services
• Airline Service
• Medical Service
• Etc

All do their very best to prevent comparison of prices further reducing the price lowering effect of a capitalistic market.

Now governments can make regulations to enforce good market conditions but ask youself whether congress is interested in writing new regulations currently.

Finally the second point is capitalism is beginning to fail in making consumers. Markets require consumers. To be a consumer one must have money. Money is work and work is being devalued by business in an effort to reduce expenses. This reduces the number of consumers in the market.

Basic income is one fix for this problem.

Basic income exists in inner city Chicago for exampl

Humans used to tediously mill grain by hand. Then we used mules. Then we used windmills.

There are more humans than ever (and probably fewer mules per-human than ever).

But you're right about the thought-perception thing. Who knows. There may always be some things that humans are better at. We'll just have to wait and see.

There may be some people who are better than machines but the majority are neither equipped or needed for the increasingly rare uses of humans.

At first glance "So what, we have what we need" which is what Musk hopes to see. He however is looking at this at a most superficial level. Humans have evolved to be dependent on one another for life itself. We survive by division of labor with each person playing a role. Remove the need for each other and there is no recognizable society, no purpose what satisfies our evolutionary mandate. We see this already in places like inner city Chicago. People have a basic income and no purpose and no need to improve when the world has no opportunity in any material sense.

This is a whole can of worms far far beyone mere business and material goods.

 

[Flapdrol1337]

It's probably still more efficient to have humans do dumb tasks than to have them sitting at home doing nothing.

Could have them employed by a state agency who rents them out to the highest bidder (probably far below cost). More efficient overall since you won't need to pay for the robots. But won't happen because scary "big government".

 

[cytg111]

Before anyone disagrees with Elon... take a look at what you're doing, what he is doing, take a long look at yourself again and then tell the mirror this "I am not a smart man". Good.
Elon is right ... *if* we get it right. If we dont get it right, I am rich and you are all dead or dying. Sorry guys you are low T low energy, low Darwin.. I got the best Darwin.

 

[cytg111]

It's probably still more efficient to have humans do dumb tasks than to have them sitting at home doing nothing.

At some point automation will come to a level where the human error factor is too expensive. And out you go.