Elon Musk now owns 9.2% of twitter...update.. will soon be the sole owner as Board of Directors accepts his purchase offer

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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,684
1,962
136
No, they didn’t tank in 2021. They tanked in 2019 at a low of 16,419. By 2021, sales had recovered to 24,829, and in 2022 were 38,122. These are US sales only. Canada has been moving a few thousand a year, too.


I mean, damn, you can’t even get simple, easily verifiable facts correct.

Sorry I should have been more specific, they tanked in Q4 of 2021 with 25 Bolts Sold. I think it had to do something with the Battery fires.

Hopefully GM will be able crack the 100k barrier on annual US sales for the Bolt soon. What do you think, will 2023 be the year? Gaining access to the EV Tax Credit again should help Bolt Sales.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,684
1,962
136
Yes, market share for EVs. They lost like 12% last year, and will lose even more this year with the F150 and the Kia/etc. picking up steam. Their raw #s can increase all they want, but when they're down to a fraction of a niche market while not releasing anything new ... but hey, they've got a great charging infrastructure.

Are you assuming that EV's will remain a niche market?
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,282
10,879
136
Sorry I should have been more specific, they tanked in Q4 of 2021 with 25 Bolts Sold. I think it had to do something with the Battery fires.

Hopefully GM will be able crack the 100k barrier on annual US sales for the Bolt soon. What do you think, will 2023 be the year? Gaining access to the EV Tax Credit again should help Bolt Sales.
I started looking into a Bolt seriously because of the tax credit. Hoping to see one at the car show tomorrow. I am afraid it might feel a little too "cheap" for me, though. I really like the Hyundai, but don't want to spend that much on a car right now.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,464
1,005
126
The Volkswagen autogroup and the Hunydai/Kia group are the two biggest threats to Tesla EV market share.

I am almost certain Kia’s EV equivalent of the Telluride(the EV9) will be in mass production before the cyber truck. Tesla doesn’t have a counter to it either. Nor do many others. Large traditional 3 row SUV with 300ish miles of range and starting at $50k. Officially unveils on March 15, has been spotted being tested in camo for about 9 months now. It’s a 2024 model hitting the streets later this year. Might possibly be the first Kia ev eligible for the tax credits. The Ioniq 6 will hit before the EV9, and 6-9 months after the EV9, the EV9 stablemate the Ioniq 7 should avalible.

People are really sleeping on huyndai/Kia. Over the past 6 years, I’ve had a 1st year Niro and a 1st year Sorento hybrid. Both have seen 25k miles a year and not a single issue between them. I’ve had deposits on a variety of EVs over the years but have always ended up canceling. The closet I can to following through was the F150 but they wanted to much money. Depending on March 15, I may possibly follow through with an EV in the form of an EV9.
 
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A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
4,351
3,158
136
Are you assuming that EV's will remain a niche market?
Did you not read his post? He stated Tesla will become a minority player in a niche marker. The EV market is still niche, it's not large. It's growing, but still niche. Tesla hasn't developed a compelling vehicle in years. The Model S design is 11 years old and mostly unchanged. Very little has been done to refine it since then. Fancier motors and software is hardly anything to write home about. The F150 Lightening is gaining steam and Hyundai/KIA are readying many models of EVs.

Tesla had their extensive charging network going for them... Until they were forced to open it up in Europe, and agreed to open it up in US to get share federal subsidies amounting to 2.5B over 5 years and they have until the end of 2024 to do this. From here on out it's a domino effect with Canada and Mexico likely forcing them to do the same and the SA countries.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,684
1,962
136
Did you not read his post? He stated Tesla will become a minority player in a niche marker. The EV market is still niche, it's not large. It's growing, but still niche. Tesla hasn't developed a compelling vehicle in years. The Model S design is 11 years old and mostly unchanged. Very little has been done to refine it since then. Fancier motors and software is hardly anything to write home about. The F150 Lightening is gaining steam and Hyundai/KIA are readying many models of EVs.

Yes I read his post. He implies that EV's will remain a niche market. I don't see EV's remain a niche market at the rate that EV sales are growing.
Is there a definition "niche market"?
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,684
1,962
136
The Volkswagen autogroup and the Hunydai/Kia group are the two biggest threats to Tesla EV market share.

I am almost certain Kia’s EV equivalent of the Telluride(the EV9) will be in mass production before the cyber truck. Tesla doesn’t have a counter to it either. Nor do many others. Large traditional 3 row SUV with 300ish miles of range and starting at $50k. Officially unveils on March 15, has been spotted being tested in camo for about 9 months now. It’s a 2024 model hitting the streets later this year. Might possibly be the first Kia ev eligible for the tax credits.

The problem I have seen with Hyundai/Kia EV's is that when you go to a local dealer to buy one the dealer slaps a $5k-$10k "market adjustment" on the sale price of the car. Was interested in the Ioniq 5 but not at the dealer market-ups they wanted to charge. Hopefully Hyundai/Kia can reign in their dealers in with their "market adjustment" pricing.

Should be a good vehicle if they can build them in sufficient quantity. 100k+ units per year. Any manufacturers EV in order to be a serious threat to the 3 or Y market share has to be prepared to build and deliver 100k+ units per year to the US Market. Is Hyundai/Kia prepared to build that many units per year of the EV9?
  • Base Model RWD: $56,000, 200 hp, 250 lb-ft 220 miles
  • Long Range RWD: $61,000, 200 hp, 250 lb-ft, 290 miles
  • AWD: $63,000, 400 hp, 380 lb-ft, 260 miles
  • AWD w/Big Wheels: $68,000, 400 hp, 380 lb-ft, 240 miles
  • Top Tier AWD: $73,000, 400 hp, 480 lb-ft, 240 miles
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
4,351
3,158
136
Yes I read his post. He implies that EV's will remain a niche market. I don't see EV's remain a niche market at the rate that EV sales are growing.
Is there a definition "niche market"?
They will until laws in certain states kick in where petrol powered vehicles may not be sold. These dates ranging from 2035-2040 don't make sense because nearly every state's electrical grid is woefully under designed for that kind of demand. States powers go down during high demand in the summer, and we're expecting people to buy EVs and be able to charge at home during all of this? There's a lot of overhead costs to get to that that isn't feasible at the moment. Natural gas and electrical prices are at all time highs here in the US. I doubt many will want to their bills go up yoy until then and beyond. I see these symbolic laws being rewritten to allow high efficiency phevs. Gas is here to stay whether people like it or not. I don't foresee states giving big rebates to property owners for installed a charge station on their properties for personal use and large building owning conglomerates will tie the state up in courts.

There's a lot of work to be done on the us infrastructure before heavy EVs become the norm here. Chevy plans on releasing their Suburban and Tahoes as EVs in the next few years. I'm sure they'll range between 7-12K lbs. Gonna be interesting to see EV big rigs on the road. They're around 70K lbs when loaded up. Might as well be double that figure with a full ev system.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,156
11,025
136
They will until laws in certain states kick in where petrol powered vehicles may not be sold. These dates ranging from 2035-2040 don't make sense because nearly every state's electrical grid is woefully under designed for that kind of demand. States powers go down during high demand in the summer, and we're expecting people to buy EVs and be able to charge at home during all of this? There's a lot of overhead costs to get to that that isn't feasible at the moment. Natural gas and electrical prices are at all time highs here in the US. I doubt many will want to their bills go up yoy until then and beyond. I see these symbolic laws being rewritten to allow high efficiency phevs. Gas is here to stay whether people like it or not. I don't foresee states giving big rebates to property owners for installed a charge station on their properties for personal use and large building owning conglomerates will tie the state up in courts.

There's a lot of work to be done on the us infrastructure before heavy EVs become the norm here. Chevy plans on releasing their Suburban and Tahoes as EVs in the next few years. I'm sure they'll range between 7-12K lbs. Gonna be interesting to see EV big rigs on the road. They're around 70K lbs when loaded up. Might as well be double that figure with a full ev system.
Heavy duty trucks are weight limited by law. You can't go over the cap(with some small exception), which IIRC is 80,000lbs in the US. so extra weight from any source(but especially batteries) simply eats into your cargo capacity. Source: I work for an HD truck company
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,109
136
They will until laws in certain states kick in where petrol powered vehicles may not be sold. These dates ranging from 2035-2040 don't make sense because nearly every state's electrical grid is woefully under designed for that kind of demand. States powers go down during high demand in the summer, and we're expecting people to buy EVs and be able to charge at home during all of this? There's a lot of overhead costs to get to that that isn't feasible at the moment. Natural gas and electrical prices are at all time highs here in the US. I doubt many will want to their bills go up yoy until then and beyond. I see these symbolic laws being rewritten to allow high efficiency phevs. Gas is here to stay whether people like it or not. I don't foresee states giving big rebates to property owners for installed a charge station on their properties for personal use and large building owning conglomerates will tie the state up in courts.

That's in the US. The EU are doing a much better job; so is China. Big Oil's lobbyists will drag out electrification of transport as long as possible in the US. They put up nice ads and commercials that'll say that they are 100% on board with clean energy - which is a near total lie.

That said, the requirements of the grid for increased BEV usage is well within reasonable expectations for the Energy delivery companies. They stand to make more money from increased electrification - so of course they'll invest. Same with the electric power producers - it's just a problem getting them off of natural gas. The main last hurdle is having sufficient charging stations. Still hitting the target dates you posted is not unreasonable. There are two states, California and Texas that have some serious problems. From the little I've read, it seems like both states have some dumb policies that are limiting their ability to get this under control. Most states are much better off.

Here is a nice non-sciency article that folks can read: Can the Nation's Electrical Grid Support Electric Cars? | U.S. News (usnews.com)
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,282
10,879
136
Heavy duty trucks are weight limited by law. You can't go over the cap(with some small exception), which IIRC is 80,000lbs in the US. so extra weight from any source(but especially batteries) simply eats into your cargo capacity. Source: I work for an HD truck company

This is true, except EV trucks are allowed to go up to 82K.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,282
10,879
136
They will until laws in certain states kick in where petrol powered vehicles may not be sold. These dates ranging from 2035-2040 don't make sense because nearly every state's electrical grid is woefully under designed for that kind of demand. States powers go down during high demand in the summer, and we're expecting people to buy EVs and be able to charge at home during all of this? There's a lot of overhead costs to get to that that isn't feasible at the moment. Natural gas and electrical prices are at all time highs here in the US. I doubt many will want to their bills go up yoy until then and beyond. I see these symbolic laws being rewritten to allow high efficiency phevs. Gas is here to stay whether people like it or not. I don't foresee states giving big rebates to property owners for installed a charge station on their properties for personal use and large building owning conglomerates will tie the state up in courts.

There's a lot of work to be done on the us infrastructure before heavy EVs become the norm here. Chevy plans on releasing their Suburban and Tahoes as EVs in the next few years. I'm sure they'll range between 7-12K lbs. Gonna be interesting to see EV big rigs on the road. They're around 70K lbs when loaded up. Might as well be double that figure with a full ev system.
We need some real regulations on vehicle weight for non-commercial vehicles. 10,000 pound vehicles will just be straight up deadly to people in normal cars. Not to mention bikers and walkers.

We also should be encouraging better use of limited resources. You could make 2+ bolt battery packs from the one hummer pack. You could also make probably 6 plug in hybrids.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
4,340
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Did you not read his post? He stated Tesla will become a minority player in a niche marker. The EV market is still niche, it's not large. It's growing, but still niche. Tesla hasn't developed a compelling vehicle in years. The Model S design is 11 years old and mostly unchanged. Very little has been done to refine it since then. Fancier motors and software is hardly anything to write home about. The F150 Lightening is gaining steam and Hyundai/KIA are readying many models of EVs.

I'm as much here to Punch Musk as the next guy, but we really shouldn't let wishful thinking, cloud actual thinking.

Tesla's share of the overall market continues to grow, they have been increasing annual sales something 40%/year, every year, for many years on end, and there is little sign of that stopping.

They haven't had a new model in years, but their models are compelling enough keep increasing sales.

Their recent presentation was all about their next, MUCH less expensive next generation product. No idea when this lands, but it looks like a potential bombshell when it does.

While I think the 20 million sales/year is a fantasy, there is little chance they are going to wither and become irrelevant anytime in the foreseeable future.
 
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Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
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The problem I have seen with Hyundai/Kia EV's is that when you go to a local dealer to buy one the dealer slaps a $5k-$10k "market adjustment" on the sale price of the car. Was interested in the Ioniq 5 but not at the dealer market-ups they wanted to charge. Hopefully Hyundai/Kia can reign in their dealers in with their "market adjustment" pricing.

Should be a good vehicle if they can build them in sufficient quantity. 100k+ units per year. Any manufacturers EV in order to be a serious threat to the 3 or Y market share has to be prepared to build and deliver 100k+ units per year to the US Market. Is Hyundai/Kia prepared to build that many units per year of the EV9?
  • Base Model RWD: $56,000, 200 hp, 250 lb-ft 220 miles
  • Long Range RWD: $61,000, 200 hp, 250 lb-ft, 290 miles
  • AWD: $63,000, 400 hp, 380 lb-ft, 260 miles
  • AWD w/Big Wheels: $68,000, 400 hp, 380 lb-ft, 240 miles
  • Top Tier AWD: $73,000, 400 hp, 480 lb-ft, 240 miles

Kia alone will have 11 different EVs in the US by MY2026. Hyundai will have 8 and Genesis will have 5. Hyundai/Kia are currently building an American plants for batteries and evs. They are slated to start out producing 300k EVs out of their first American plant once it comes online.

I said Volkswagen and Hyundai/Kia because they are the only companies they have gone all in on EVs.

As for markups; that goes for all hot cars not just Kias. Every brand they has an in demand car has the same problems. I’ve seen Lightnings with $30k markups.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,684
1,962
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Kia alone will have 11 different EVs in the US by MY2026. Hyundai will have 8 and Genesis will have 5. Hyundai/Kia are currently building an American plants for batteries and evs. They are slated to start out producing 300k EVs out of their first American plant once it comes online.

I said Volkswagen and Hyundai/Kia because they are the only companies they have gone all in on EVs.

As for markups; that goes for all hot cars not just Kias. Every brand they has an in demand car has the same problems. I’ve seen Lightnings with $30k markups.

I would add Ford to that list as going all in on EV's. Hopefully they can get the EV plant in the US online by the planned date of the end of 2022.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,684
1,962
136
Heavy duty trucks are weight limited by law. You can't go over the cap(with some small exception), which IIRC is 80,000lbs in the US. so extra weight from any source(but especially batteries) simply eats into your cargo capacity. Source: I work for an HD truck company

How many Trucks are cubed out versus weighted out? The transportation and Energy Data book shows trucks 60% of trucks are cubed-out versus weighted out when hauling loads.

https://tedb.ornl.gov/
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,684
1,962
136
They will until laws in certain states kick in where petrol powered vehicles may not be sold. These dates ranging from 2035-2040 don't make sense because nearly every state's electrical grid is woefully under designed for that kind of demand. States powers go down during high demand in the summer, and we're expecting people to buy EVs and be able to charge at home during all of this? There's a lot of overhead costs to get to that that isn't feasible at the moment. Natural gas and electrical prices are at all time highs here in the US. I doubt many will want to their bills go up yoy until then and beyond. I see these symbolic laws being rewritten to allow high efficiency phevs. Gas is here to stay whether people like it or not. I don't foresee states giving big rebates to property owners for installed a charge station on their properties for personal use and large building owning conglomerates will tie the state up in courts.

There's a lot of work to be done on the us infrastructure before heavy EVs become the norm here. Chevy plans on releasing their Suburban and Tahoes as EVs in the next few years. I'm sure they'll range between 7-12K lbs. Gonna be interesting to see EV big rigs on the road. They're around 70K lbs when loaded up. Might as well be double that figure with a full ev system.

Most people don't charge their EV during peak times and a lot of home EV charging can be time shifted to off peak times. I charge mine between 2400-0600 because that is when I have the lowest rates for charging. How did the electrical grid ever adjust to when people started adding home AC?

What percentage of new US car sales do EV's have to be, before it is no longer a niche market?
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
17,788
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EV's will be a niche market until you can find a charging station in any small town than can fully charge the vehicle in 10-15 minutes like filling your conventional vehicle.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,314
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EV's will be a niche market until you can find a charging station in any small town than can fully charge the vehicle in 10-15 minutes like filling your conventional vehicle.

This ^ (among other reasons). You have ~100yrs of ICE embedded in all aspects of society. It's going to be a niche market for quite some time barring a massive change in political directions.
 
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Dec 10, 2005
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EV's will be a niche market until you can find a charging station in any small town than can fully charge the vehicle in 10-15 minutes like filling your conventional vehicle.
This seems like a fundamental misunderstanding of how everyday charging will happen. Part of why people need lots of places to fill up their tank with an ICE vehicle is because they don't have a fuel station in their house. With an EV, you can literally leave your home every day with a full tank by plugging in overnight.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,156
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EV's will be a niche market until you can find a charging station in any small town than can fully charge the vehicle in 10-15 minutes like filling your conventional vehicle.
i'd say we're still somewhere around "early adopters" on the technology life cycle.

This seems like a fundamental misunderstanding of how everyday charging will happen. Part of why people need lots of places to fill up their tank with an ICE vehicle is because they don't have a fuel station in their house. With an EV, you can literally leave your home every day with a full tank by plugging in overnight.
it's great if you have a garage and your own charger, but if you live in an apartment complex, for example, then you're at the mercy of whatever EV charging spots are - or right now, are not - available.

don't get me wrong, EVs are a great choice for a lot of people. probably more than are willing to admit it. but EVs still have a little while to go before they can truly be ubiquitous.
 
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Dec 10, 2005
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it's great if you have a garage and your own charger, but if you live in an apartment complex, for example, then you're at the mercy of whatever EV charging spots are - or right now, are not - available.

don't get me wrong, EVs are a great choice for a lot of people. probably more than are willing to admit it. but EVs still have a little while to go before they can truly be ubiquitous.
Something like 60-70% of all US housing units are single family homes. Though apartment livers and those without dedicated parking will face some hurdles as charging infrastructure deploys, I don't think it's the barrier that people make it out to be.

And as an apartment dweller, I've seen at least a handful of EVs in the garage of my building. They just plug them into the standard 120V outlets that are scattered throughout the garage. It may not be super fast, but as the Youtuber TechnologyConnections correctly points out, you can get 50+ miles of range per night, which is more than enough for the typical everyday driving.
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
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As an example, the population where I’m at is approximately 260,000. There is ONE charging station in the area and the next nearest is 20 miles away.
 
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