Electoral College Tie?

[Stunt]

I've been looking at the 2008 presidential electoral map and I can see a potential tie this fall. If you take the default setting of the election map below, and input the following swing states; (all very likely outcomes) a tie is possible this year.

McCain: NV, CO, NM, MO, IN, MI, NC, FL, MI, NH, IA
Obama: PA, OH, VA, WV

All of the states are the same as the 2004 race except Obama wins Ohio due to loss of manufacturing jobs under Bush and Virginia because of heavy campaigning there, Warner's senate bid and a potential VP from the state. On the McCain side, he wins New Hampshire because of the independent vote, Michigan because of heavy campaigning here, poor treatment from the democrats in the primaries and Romney's push in the state (perhaps VP) on economic issues.

linky

Thoughts? Reasonable assumptions? What states will not go this way and why?

 

[Xonoahbin]

I personally believe that Colorado will not go to McCain. After the DNC in Denver and the momentum that the Dems have been gaining in Colorado, McCain isn't a shoe-in like previous Republicans.

 

[JS80]

McCain basically needs ALL of the middle states but can give up either NM or CO.

 

[frostedflakes]

Refresh my memory, what happens in the event of a tie? The vote goes to the House, right (one vote per state)?

 

[Brainonska511]

Originally posted by: frostedflakes
Refresh my memory, what happens in the event of a tie? The vote goes to the House, right (one vote per state)?

Yep. Not enough electoral votes for anyone (not over 270) sends the voting to the House - 1 vote per state.

 

[Lemon law]

A tie in the electoral college? A small but finite chance. Correct me if I am wrong, but if that happens, the verdict gets tossed to the House of Representatives. McCain's chances would be slim or next to none in that event. Even the SC court could not save McCains's ass.

 

[Balt]

I'd be pretty surprised if Virginia goes to Obama. Webb is considered to the right of many Dems and he barely beat out George "macaca" Allen.

 

[MovingTarget]

If it does happen, it should go to the House like it is SUPPOSED to. However, it will probably end up in SCOTUS like in 2000. They had no business taking that case.

 

[Gunslinger08]

Originally posted by: Balt
I'd be pretty surprised if Virginia goes to Obama. Webb is considered to the right of many Dems and he barely beat out George "macaca" Allen.

Agreed. VA will go to McCain.

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: MovingTarget
If it does happen, it should go to the House like it is SUPPOSED to. However, it will probably end up in SCOTUS like in 2000. They had no business taking that case.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SCOTUS can only assert jurisdiction in the case of a disputed State elections. There are many ways to get to a 269 269 tie without any disputed State elections.

Then its almost certain to go to the House, the constitution is quite clear on that point. Everyone and their brother in law may want to file a lawsuit, but I very much doubt SCOTUS would touch any with a 10 foot pole.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: MovingTarget
If it does happen, it should go to the House like it is SUPPOSED to. However, it will probably end up in SCOTUS like in 2000. They had no business taking that case.

Oh please...

The 2000 case was not even a 5-4 vote.

It was a 7-2 decision that the Florida Supreme Court's plan was bogus.
It was a 5-4 vote to allow the recount to end and Fl to certify the vote. But realistically after the 7-2 decision it was over for Gore.

 

[RY62]

I think a tie is very likely but the states going as follows:

Obama - 269
WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, MN, IA, WI, HI, IL, NY, VT, ME, MA, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, RI, MI, PA

McCain - 269
ID, NV, AK, AZ, UT, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, IN, OH, GA, FL, SC, NC, VA, WV, NH

In this case, I think MI is the key. If McCain can pull MI, maybe with help from Romney, the race is his.

Bottom line: Clinton would've won it.

 

[MovingTarget]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: MovingTarget
If it does happen, it should go to the House like it is SUPPOSED to. However, it will probably end up in SCOTUS like in 2000. They had no business taking that case.

Oh please...

The 2000 case was not even a 5-4 vote.

It was a 7-2 decision that the Florida Supreme Court's plan was bogus.
It was a 5-4 vote to allow the recount to end and Fl to certify the vote. But realistically after the 7-2 decision it was over for Gore.

When such grave disputes over the delegates arise, the constitution has a remedy. The electoral college couldn't reach a decision without the disputed Florida delegates, so the decision should've been kicked over to the House. Sure, the lawsuits would've gone on over the procedures that lead to the situations, but with an eye more towards avoiding the situation in the future. Besides, such decisions take time. Bush v. Gore was purely political. SCOTUS would've been better to stay out of it. They lost a lot of credibility over that one. I've read the decision in its entirety, as well as many of the briefs filed by Steve Windom et al. (He's a repub from my state, formerly Lt. Gov....and now a federal judge...imagine that.) and it lacks any real precedential value. Hell, the constitution couldn't be more clear what should happen in such a dispute in the EC. I wasn't even a Gore supporter back then. Lets face it, Bush would've won by a landslide in the House if it had been up to them. Hopefully we will never see a repeat of this.

 

[ebaycj]

Originally posted by: Stunt
I've been looking at the 2008 presidential electoral map and I can see a potential tie this fall. If you take the default setting of the election map below, and input the following swing states; (all very likely outcomes) a tie is possible this year.

McCain: NV, CO, NM, MO, IN, MI, NC, FL, MI, NH, IA
Obama: PA, OH, VA, WV

All of the states are the same as the 2004 race except Obama wins Ohio due to loss of manufacturing jobs under Bush and Virginia because of heavy campaigning there, Warner's senate bid and a potential VP from the state. On the McCain side, he wins New Hampshire because of the independent vote, Michigan because of heavy campaigning here, poor treatment from the democrats in the primaries and Romney's push in the state (perhaps VP) on economic issues.

linky

Thoughts? Reasonable assumptions? What states will not go this way and why?

Iowa will be blue this year. No question about it.

 

[jpeyton]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

They have the most accurate electoral college predictions period. They aggregate poll data from all available polls, weight them based on their past accuracy, then run 10,000 simulations based on that data each day to determine the most likely outcome of the election.

Obama has been around the 300 electoral vote mark since Hillary pulled out of the race.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: MovingTarget

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: MovingTarget
If it does happen, it should go to the House like it is SUPPOSED to. However, it will probably end up in SCOTUS like in 2000. They had no business taking that case.

Oh please...

The 2000 case was not even a 5-4 vote.

It was a 7-2 decision that the Florida Supreme Court's plan was bogus.
It was a 5-4 vote to allow the recount to end and Fl to certify the vote. But realistically after the 7-2 decision it was over for Gore.

When such grave disputes over the delegates arise, the constitution has a remedy. The electoral college couldn't reach a decision without the disputed Florida delegates, so the decision should've been kicked over to the House. Sure, the lawsuits would've gone on over the procedures that lead to the situations, but with an eye more towards avoiding the situation in the future. Besides, such decisions take time. Bush v. Gore was purely political. SCOTUS would've been better to stay out of it. They lost a lot of credibility over that one. I've read the decision in its entirety, as well as many of the briefs filed by Steve Windom et al. (He's a repub from my state, formerly Lt. Gov....and now a federal judge...imagine that.) and it lacks any real precedential value. Hell, the constitution couldn't be more clear what should happen in such a dispute in the EC. I wasn't even a Gore supporter back then. Lets face it, Bush would've won by a landslide in the House if it had been up to them. Hopefully we will never see a repeat of this.

But why let it get to the house when you had a vote that should have counted?

Your argument has no merit because of that. The people voted and when the vote was counted Bush won. Yes there are a lot of questions about the vote and the ballots etc etc but Bush still won. And if the SC had not got involved and they let the recount go on the way Gore wanted it Bush still would have won.

Finally, the reason the court got involved is because the FL court set up a recount procedure that clearly violated the 14th amendment by allowing a recount in only certain counties.

Final final point. If there had been no lawsuits and no court fight and the counties doing the recounts had been allowed to carry them out by whatever rules they wanted Bush still would have won. The only way Gore wins is by a recount of the whole state and no one was even calling for that.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Stunt
I've been looking at the 2008 presidential electoral map and I can see a potential tie this fall. If you take the default setting of the election map below, and input the following swing states; (all very likely outcomes) a tie is possible this year.

McCain: NV, CO, NM, MO, IN, MI, NC, FL, MI, NH, IA
Obama: PA, OH, VA, WV

All of the states are the same as the 2004 race except Obama wins Ohio due to loss of manufacturing jobs under Bush and Virginia because of heavy campaigning there, Warner's senate bid and a potential VP from the state. On the McCain side, he wins New Hampshire because of the independent vote, Michigan because of heavy campaigning here, poor treatment from the democrats in the primaries and Romney's push in the state (perhaps VP) on economic issues.

linky

Thoughts? Reasonable assumptions? What states will not go this way and why?

Funny I said this months ago and I get lambasted.

Epic fail

 

[alchemize]

Is there anything you didn't predict months ago, Dave?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: alchemize
Is there anything you didn't predict months ago, Dave?

Probably not

 

[herkulease]

It'll never even reach the House. Both candidates will have lawsuits filed. and like 2000 they will cherry pick counties and demand recounts. Since 2000 there is no such as a dispute free election anywhere in this country. OMG the poll worker looked at me weird, they racists.
If the elections show how ends up on the steps to the supreme court I am willing to bet the justices will burn down the building down and run to off to mexico before they even touch it.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: MovingTarget
If it does happen, it should go to the House like it is SUPPOSED to. However, it will probably end up in SCOTUS like in 2000. They had no business taking that case.

Oh please...

The 2000 case was not even a 5-4 vote.

It was a 7-2 decision that the Florida Supreme Court's plan was bogus.
It was a 5-4 vote to allow the recount to end and Fl to certify the vote. But realistically after the 7-2 decision it was over for Gore.

It was over for Gore even if SCOTUS had voted to allow the recount to continue. Everyone forgets that the Florida legislature would have been perfectly within its rights to pull the plug on the election and vote to award the electors to Bush. Does anyone really believe that a state with a Republican-majority legislature was going to allow the recount to continue if they had any excuse NOT to do so?