EETimes: TSMC estimates they hold 90% of the world's pending 28nm tape-outs

[piesquared]

Ahh conditional. Like the words in the OP's, "expects" and "pending" then.

 

[jimbo75]

I would appreciate it if you stopped attacking Idontcare. As much as it is against the rules fo this forum to state it here, and not just report this post, I feel the need to stand up for my friend in public. He doesn't deserve to be treated this way.

I think you are mistaken. First of all he accuses me of "gobs of meaningless gibberish" just because I disagree with his "analysis". http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=31703267&postcount=12

After which I'm "trolling" and "thread crapping". I believe my point is more valid than his. What's more, I believe I've proven it while he has played the "total landslide defeat" and "lack of confidence in GF" cards, both of which are false but will sure fire up the intel crowd.

GF is a fast growing company with plenty of orders to keep them busy. Just because it can't magic up another 5 fabs in a year to compete on wafer starts vs the humungous TSMC does not make them even close to failing. To expect them to do so speaks of a lack of understanding of that which he claims to know very well. He clearly knows a lot about the foundry business, unfortunately he seems to have a lack of knowledge on GF compared to the rest or he wouldn't be making the comments he is making.

 

[Phynaz]

Ahh conditional. Like the words in the OP's, "expects" and "pending" then.

Yes.

 

[Idontcare]

I think you are mistaken. First of all he accuses me of "gobs of meaningless gibberish" just because I disagree with his "analysis". http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=31703267&postcount=12

After which I'm "trolling" and "thread crapping". I believe my point is more valid than his. What's more, I believe I've proven it while he has played the "total landslide defeat" and "lack of confidence in GF" cards, both of which are false but will sure fire up the intel crowd.

GF is a fast growing company with plenty of orders to keep them busy. Just because it can't magic up another 5 fabs in a year to compete on wafer starts vs the humungous TSMC does not make them even close to failing. To expect them to do so speaks of a lack of understanding of that which he claims to know very well. He clearly knows a lot about the foundry business, unfortunately he seems to have a lack of knowledge on GF compared to the rest or he wouldn't be making the comments he is making.

Straw man

The straw man fallacy occurs in the following pattern of argument:

1. Person A has position X.
2. Person B disregards certain key points of X and instead presents the superficially similar position Y. Thus, Y is a resulting distorted version of X and can be set up in several ways, including:
   1. Presenting a misrepresentation of the opponent's position.
   2. Quoting an opponent's words out of context — i.e. choosing quotations that misrepresent the opponent's actual intentions (see contextomy and quote mining).[2]
   3. Presenting someone who defends a position poorly as the defender, then refuting that person's arguments — thus giving the appearance that every upholder of that position (and thus the position itself) has been defeated.[1]
   4. Inventing a fictitious persona with actions or beliefs which are then criticized, implying that the person represents a group of whom the speaker is critical.
   5. Oversimplifying an opponent's argument, then attacking this oversimplified version.
3. Person B attacks position Y, concluding that X is false/incorrect/flawed.

This sort of "reasoning" is fallacious, because attacking a distorted version of a position fails to constitute an attack on the actual position.

You seem keenly intent on debunking "Idontcare"...why don't you spend a little more time debunking the premise of the article, its author, and the contents rather than making this all about me and your problems with whoever you think I am?

I don't know for fact that TSMC isn't misrepresenting their position, hence the fact that I reserved judgement on the matter.

"If true..." was not included in the OP because I wanted wiggle room, I am under no false pretenses that TSMC has released this info solely because it stands to benefit them to do so. As such I am guarded in terms of its accuracy. Read my posts on TSMC going back for years, I am hardly what anyone would call a "TSMC fan".

That said, TSMC has made its move and it is now up to GloFo to make a counter move. You whipping up a bunch of nonsensical rhetoric (and yes, your posts in this thread have really been little other than nonsensical rhetoric as proven by the utter lack of facts, data, links, or anything else to establish your credibility on the matter) is not the same as GloFo refuting TSMC's claims.

I care about this because I've got a number of good friends, people I use to work for, who are intending on making a living in Malta and their livelihoods are depending on 28nm being something more for GloFo than what it is shaping up to be. And I know this because I've seen the same business cycles happen to SMIC, Chartered, IBM, and UMC.

If GloFo doesn't gain traction on leading edge CMOS then they are going to recede from the limelight as quickly as they entered it. That is the nature of this business and has been since 1987 when Morris founded TSMC.

It doesn't help that AMD is publicly non-commital on moving their TSMC business to GloFo.

 

[jimbo75]

Straw man


You seem keenly intent on debunking "Idontcare"...why don't you spend a little more time debunking the premise of the article, its author, and the contents rather than making this all about me and your problems with whoever you think I am?

Because you made these comments, not the author of the article or the woman from TSMC.

1

If this is true then this is nothing short of a total landslide defeat for GloFo at 28nm

Let's assume this 90% figure is actually accurate. How does that equate to a total landslide defeat? That projects a vision of GF fabs sitting around with no wafers running, when the FACT is they will be running at their very maximum capacity.

What else can they do?

2

It speaks to the confidence, or lack thereof, across the global customer base that GloFo's 28nm foundry model is viable, which has the knock-on effects of future business on the nodes to come.

I made my points on this clear.

1) No business is going to risk their business on a wholesale switch to GF before they prove themselves.

2) Even if they did, it's impossible for GF to match TSMC's wafer output at the present moment.

You even alluded to this yourself later in the same post with

As they say in IT: "no one ever got fired for buying Intel", so is true for fabless companies "no one ever got fired for going TSMC".

Which I would call "better the devil you know". I seriously doubt nobody got fired for going TSMC btw, but that's for another discussion.

There is a clear difference of opinion here. Why you chose to believe it's a "lack of confidence in GF" instead of what would be the logical reasons speaks volumes, imo.

I don't know for fact that TSMC isn't misrepresenting their position, hence the fact that I reserved judgement on the matter.

Neither do I, however I'd look at their track record of bullshit and not give them much benefit of doubt. Actually that's exactly what I did, while you appear to be giving them the benefit of doubt. Again, I would question what your motive for that was.

"If true..." was not included in the OP because I wanted wiggle room, I am under no false pretenses that TSMC has released this info solely because it stands to benefit them to do so. As such I am guarded in terms of its accuracy. Read my posts on TSMC going back for years, I am hardly what anyone would call a "TSMC fan".

Fair enough, I can believe that is true. However I can also believe more that you'd be rooting for TSMC above GF. That's just a personal "imo", I could be wrong there but that's the feeling I get.

That said, TSMC has made its move and it is now up to GloFo to make a counter move. You whipping up a bunch of nonsensical rhetoric (and yes, your posts in this thread have really been little other than nonsensical rhetoric as proven by the utter lack of facts, data, links, or anything else to establish your credibility on the matter) is not the same as GloFo refuting TSMC's claims.

I care about this because I've got a number of good friends, people I use to work for, who are intending on making a living in Malta and their livelihoods are depending on 28nm being something more for GloFo than what it is shaping up to be. And I know this because I've seen the same business cycles happen to SMIC, Chartered, IBM, and UMC.

If GloFo doesn't gain traction on leading edge CMOS then they are going to recede from the limelight as quickly as they entered it. That is the nature of this business and has been since 1987 when Morris founded TSMC.

It doesn't help that AMD is publicly non-commital on moving their TSMC business to GloFo.

You are expecting miracles overnight and that was never on the cards. It is physically and financially impossible for GF to meet your requirements in such a small amount of time.

 

[RobertPters77]

Jesus christ are you people really arguing over who has a better foundry?

 

[jimbo75]

Jesus christ are you people really arguing over who has a better foundry?

This is probably one of the top 5 most argued about things tech-wise on the internet.

 

[Phynaz]

the FACT is they will be running at their very maximum capacity.

When will that be?

Happen to have any sources on this "fact"?

 

[jimbo75]

When will that be?

Happen to have any sources on this "fact"?

TSMC cannot even cope with demand almost 3 years after introducing the worlds worst process with their 40nm bulk. There are numerous sources on this, google it.

 

[Phynaz]

Didn't think you did

 

[jimbo75]

Didn't think you did

You didn't think Phynaz or you wouldn't have asked the question. This isn't exactly unusual of you however, so I just played along.

 

[piesquared]

Are there any "facts" to the claim of %90 for TSMC, other than an article from EE? Got a link from TSMC with numbers to back it up full of guarantees and signed contracts? No? Didn't think so. I guess with out 'links' and 'facts' this is a dead thread then..

 

[Mr. Pedantic]

TSMC cannot even cope with demand almost 3 years after introducing the worlds worst process with their 40nm bulk. There are numerous sources on this, google it.

What does this do with GF's supply?

 

[jimbo75]

What does this do with GF's supply?

Basically speaking no foundry is going without work due to the increasing demand for chips. While not 100% accurate it's not far off, and when they are going without work they are getting paid for it anyway, like with AMD's infamous "under-utilisation" fees a few quarters ago.

GF is not struggling to fill their fabs and anybody who believes they are (or will be) is frankly deluded.

 

[OCGuy]

I hope GF can get on track and gain some marketshare. It would be extremely positive for them if they can compete on the GPU side.

The fact that AMD has reportedly been paying per working chip on 32nm, instead of per wafer, does not bode well.

 

[OCGuy]

Ahh conditional. Like the words in the OP's, "expects" and "pending" then.

I had a funny feeling about a couple of our newer posters in this thread, so I did some quick googling. And wouldnt you know it, someone by the name of piesquared posted this about Anand on AMDzone:

"When's this guy going to start redirecting his site directly to Intel.com I wonder. Man is there any doubt left that this guy is in the tank? Nothing but lip service to AMD and ATI product reviews, but he falls all over himself getting those intel ones out there. What a bunch of BS. I ain't even going to post a link to it. Screw it. What a piece of you know what. That fraud doesn't even deserve a thread. Delete it if you want."

http://www.amdzone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=135814&st=0&sk=t&sd=a


Please stop ruining these forums by derailing. Being a fanboy is fine, but don't drag our threads down to that level. I will be reporting every post that does.

I will no longer be interacting with these guys so that I am not part of the problem, it would be best if the rest of us didnt feed them either.



Oh look, another:

Anandtech is a f*****g pu**y and a shill, and what's worse, is a chicken sh*t for trying to deny it.

...I won't click on an AT link, ever.

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2067396

 

[aphelion02]

I really want Bulldozer to succeed and inject some competition into the CPU space, but if it doesn't I will quietly chuckle at these AMD fanbois.

 

[jimbo75]

I had a funny feeling about a couple of our newer posters in this thread, so I did some quick googling. And wouldnt you know it, someone by the name of piesquared posted this about Anand on AMDzone:

"When's this guy going to start redirecting his site directly to Intel.com I wonder. Man is there any doubt left that this guy is in the tank? Nothing but lip service to AMD and ATI product reviews, but he falls all over himself getting those intel ones out there. What a bunch of BS. I ain't even going to post a link to it. Screw it. What a piece of you know what. That fraud doesn't even deserve a thread. Delete it if you want."

http://www.amdzone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=135814&st=0&sk=t&sd=a



Please stop ruining these forums by derailing. Being a fanboy is fine, but don't drag our threads down to that level. I will be reporting every post that does.

I will no longer be interacting with these guys so that I am not part of the problem, it would be best if the rest of us didnt feed them either.

What, exactly, did this post add to the thread?

Edit - You just threatened to report posts which "derail the thread", in a post of your own which was completely unrelated to the actual thread. Just thought I should point that out. Carry on.

 

[itsmydamnation]

the pot calling the kettle black in this thread is pretty funny really. not that either side can see that there either the pot or the kettle.

a pretty old artical:
http://www.realworldtech.com/page.cfm?ArticleID=RWT072109003617&p=11

 

[jimbo75]

the pot calling the kettle black in this thread is pretty funny really. not that either side can see that there either the pot or the kettle.

a pretty old artical:
http://www.realworldtech.com/page.cfm?ArticleID=RWT072109003617&p=11

I remember reading that ages ago, but had forgotten about it. It also reminded me of TSMC's switch from gate first to gate last late in the game, which is something I'd forgotten about as well.

It's a good read if not especially valid today but thanks for reminding me of it.

 

[piesquared]

I had a funny feeling about a couple of our newer posters in this thread, so I did some quick googling. And wouldnt you know it, someone by the name of piesquared posted this about Anand on AMDzone:

"When's this guy going to start redirecting his site directly to Intel.com I wonder. Man is there any doubt left that this guy is in the tank? Nothing but lip service to AMD and ATI product reviews, but he falls all over himself getting those intel ones out there. What a bunch of BS. I ain't even going to post a link to it. Screw it. What a piece of you know what. That fraud doesn't even deserve a thread. Delete it if you want."

http://www.amdzone.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=135814&st=0&sk=t&sd=a


Please stop ruining these forums by derailing. Being a fanboy is fine, but don't drag our threads down to that level. I will be reporting every post that does.

I will no longer be interacting with these guys so that I am not part of the problem, it would be best if the rest of us didnt feed them either.



Oh look, another:




http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2067396

Same person, I stand by my opinion, nothings changed and I haven't read an Anandtech article since. The day I saw a moderator with the disclaimer that he worked for intel confirmed my suspicion. I was however wrong for those personal attacks and have apologized for them.

To get back on topic, here's GF's 28nm technology.

http://www.globalfoundries.com/media/hkmg_videos.aspx

http://www.globalfoundries.com/eBooks/dac_hkmg/

 

[podspi]

If I were a fabless design company, I personally would be very leery of going with GF. It's pretty clear at this point that AMD is getting preferential treatment -- which might scare other companies away.

I can't imagine nVidia actually moving over to GF, why would they? I'm surprised AMD hasn't -- at least publicly -- moved over all production to GF. Even if they didn't share ownership (which they do) and weren't part owners (which they are) their wagon is largely hitched to GF. They should want GF to succeed as much as GF does, because who is going to manufacture their high-performance CPUs in their absence? <---(That's an actual question, btw)

 

[(sic)Klown12]

I'm surprised AMD hasn't -- at least publicly -- moved over all production to GF. Even if they didn't share ownership (which they do) and weren't part owners (which they are) their wagon is largely hitched to GF. They should want GF to succeed as much as GF does, because who is going to manufacture their high-performance CPUs in their absence? <---(That's an actual question, btw)

The reason I don't think AMD has switched all production to GloFo is that it might not have the capacity they would need(at least right now). The amount of GPUs that are produced is very high and AMD doesn't want to have to slow CPU/APU production down to feed the need for GPUs.
Also, if there was some kind of hiccup with GloFo, with some chips being made elsewhere they wouldn't be completely screwed.
And there is the chance that they are using the threat of completely switching to GloFo to better their deal with TSMC and have some kind of agreement that makes it cheaper to use them than bringing it all in house.

As for who else could build their CPUs, I could only think of TSMC and IBM. Neither one sounds like a good back-up plan though. I, too, would love to hear what other people think about this.

 

[drizek]

who is going to manufacture their high-performance CPUs in their absence? <---(That's an actual question, btw)

Whoever buys up GloFlos fabs when they go under I guess.

 

[Idontcare]

They should want GF to succeed as much as GF does, because who is going to manufacture their high-performance CPUs in their absence? <---(That's an actual question, btw)

Back when TI was still in the business of developing its own CMOS process tech (before 45nm) we ran a hybrid-foundry kind of like Intel's arrangement. For a while we fabbed Cyrix's chips, and we fabbed SUN's Sparc chips for more than a decade, probably close to two decades.

When we announced in Jan 2007 that we'd be shutting down CMOS R&D and exporting all of our future production to the foundries (yes my job at TI got exported to TSMC, making the claims that I am somehow pro-TSMC in this thread all more ironic) that also meant SUN no longer had access to leading-edge high-performance CMOS either.

At the time, SUN contracted TSMC to develop the sort of super-charged high performance CMOS they needed for 45nm. (up until then none of the so-called pure-play foundries had actually developed a competitive high-performance sub-node, hence the reason why TI was in the business of doing so for SUN)

However, to my understanding SUN never did get their super high-performance CMOS from TSMC and they have yet to release any CPU products that are not produced at TI (meaning their chips are still based on 65nm and older process techs).

So the issue and concerns of AMD maintaining access to leading-edge process tech is very real. It is one of the reasons IBM has avoided going fabless too. You won't see IBM give up their fab and go fabless until they are assured and have confidence in their having access to the process tech they need to keep their server hardware development alive (<- that's not just my opinion, our CTO at TI at the time came from IBM and he told us this)