Economic Recovery: V, W, U, L, Square Root, or other?

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
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Seen lots of commentary on how the economic recovery will either be a V, W, U, or L.

Also seen comments that different letters may apply depending upon whether one is talking about gdp, unemployment, corporate profits, or the stock market itself.

This CNBC clip with Leon Cooperman seems, IMO, to provide some very good insights on where we currently stand, and also on what to reasonably expect going forward: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1210103462&play=1

Anyone else have good links (articles, video clips, etc) that seemed particularly insightful about how the recovery will take shape?

edit: I also highly recommend watching Paul Krugman's 3 lectures at the London School of Economics earlier this year. There really aren't any political comments till end of third lecture, but it does seem to provide very good perspective for why he continues to argue for a second stimulus: http://www.lse.ac.uk/collectio...#generated-subheading1


 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
I think it will be a cross between a U and a V except the right side of it will be more L-like; i.e. increasingly distance from end-of-world scenario but a sputtering recovery the effects of which will be felt for much longer than previous recessions.
 

cubeless

Diamond Member
Sep 17, 2001
4,295
1
81
no one 'knows'... and krugman repeatedly shows that he's bent by his political leanings... his little gaff the other day on the wonders of canadian healthcare would chasten most, but not one of his bigheadedness...
 
Oct 30, 2004
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I think we'll see something like an L or perhaps a small bump followed by another decline.

Since our nation has exposed itself to Global Labor Arbitrage, shipping our jobs, industrial means of production, business ownership, and wealth overseas while also importing millions of poor people through mass immigration and a resultant increase in Malthusian Forces (increased costs for land and resources as a result of population explosion), and since we have a gigantic national debt and an overall low Rationality Factor, I don't see any reason why the U.S. economy will recover nor why it will not continue to decline. We may have small bumps of improvement here and there, but the overall trend will be downward, like a sine wave that propagates along a downward slope.
 
Dec 30, 2004
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Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
I think we'll see something like an L or perhaps a small bump followed by another decline.

Since our nation has exposed itself to Global Labor Arbitrage, shipping our jobs, industrial means of production, business ownership, and wealth overseas while also importing millions of poor people through mass immigration and a resultant increase in Malthusian Forces (increased costs for land and resources as a result of population explosion), and since we have a gigantic national debt and an overall low Rationality Factor, I don't see any reason why the U.S. economy will recover nor why it will not continue to decline. We may have small bumps of improvement here and there, but the overall trend will be downward, like a sine wave that propagates along a downward slope.

There is no more wealth in manufacturing, we need to go get reeducated as engineers if we want to move forward.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: soccerballtux
Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
I think we'll see something like an L or perhaps a small bump followed by another decline.

Since our nation has exposed itself to Global Labor Arbitrage, shipping our jobs, industrial means of production, business ownership, and wealth overseas while also importing millions of poor people through mass immigration and a resultant increase in Malthusian Forces (increased costs for land and resources as a result of population explosion), and since we have a gigantic national debt and an overall low Rationality Factor, I don't see any reason why the U.S. economy will recover nor why it will not continue to decline. We may have small bumps of improvement here and there, but the overall trend will be downward, like a sine wave that propagates along a downward slope.

There is no more wealth in manufacturing, we need to go get reeducated as engineers if we want to move forward.

We can graduate every single person in the US with an engineering degree and we would have engineers working at McDonalds and Walmart. While I agree that we need more engineering degrees, every segment of society isn't designed to go to college and manufacturing provides far more than just menial (as many of you would call it) low paying jobs. /rant

I guess when we stop making stuff, we (the US citizens) call all sell outside stuff back and forth to each other.

From the movie Wall Street....

Carl Fox: Stop going for the easy buck and start producing something with your life. Create, instead of living off the buying and selling of others.

Looks like the above, everyone going for the "easy buck", will eventually kick us in the ass (and I blame a big portion of today's economy - bubbles...bubbles...bubbles - on that very principle).
 

magomago

Lifer
Sep 28, 2002
10,973
14
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Soccerballtux:
depends on what type of manufacturing. Cheap cheap manufacturing will stay in China for a loooong time. I say a loooong time because China has so many people that even raising the standard of living, having new infastructure with all amenities, and all the luxuries you'd want for over 300 million people still leaves out another 1 billion people. They got plenty of people within their own country willing to keep their labor cheap.
As for re educating the whole population as engineers...that is still a little optimistic. Not everyone is going to be a true design engineer. Very few really are. On top of it, many borrow heavily and tweak previous designs. Most engineering comes from supporting those few design engineers. That isn't to say that the others are worthless...lol not really, and they aren't easy... but its unrealistic to say everyone needs to be engineers.
Ultimately focusing purely on intellectual property and ideas worries me slightly because it relies on having a monopoly on an idea. We currently have protections and measures to temporarily defend it (patents), but you ultimately can't prevent the copying of these ideas by others. Hell, that is how other major inventions came out --> someone copies and then later improves and tweaks it. I also don't think that copyrighting ideas and concepts for the long term isn't the best way to go as far as humans are concerned --> technology and progress moves the fastest with unimpeded dissemination of knowledge.

Anyways, the economic recovery I see is a W with a little L and some Q R S tossed in for good measure. Cook at at 500F for 30 minutes to accentuate the R and we are good to go.
 
Oct 30, 2004
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Originally posted by: soccerballtuxThere is no more wealth in manufacturing, we need to go get reeducated as engineers if we want to move forward.

Are you saying that if we re-educate everyone as engineers that we will have enough jobs for all of the new engineers? Let's make it simple and pretend that we merely double the number of engineers. If we double the number of engineers, will the number of jobs available for engineers at currently prevailing wage rates also double? In other words, will an increase in supply magically increase the demand at previous price point?

Let's talk about scientists. We already have a large oversupply of Ph.D. scientists, so would it make sense for us to produce even more scientists?

Also, in your view, do Americans have a monopoly on doing the world's engineering and science work? Is that something that only Americans do well or do the best job at? Wouldn't that be a rather racist notion--that only Americans can do that kind of work, at least at the highest level, and that engineers and scientists in other nations are inferior to American engineers and scientists?

To follow up on what Engineer said, let me point out that wealth has to be created and also that you cannot consume more wealth than you produce. That is to say that we as a nation cannot consume more wealth than we produce which means that we cannot sustain our huge trade deficit forever. As a nation, we need to grow up and focus on becoming self-sufficient instead of selling our hard assets (land and capital) to other nations in exchange for ephemeral consumer goods. This means that we need to address Global Labor Arbitrage and Population Explosion (aka Malthusian Forces). We also need to address the issue of the populace's Rationality Factor.
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,198
126
Globally: U shaped.
US: L shaped.
We have huge sections of our economy that produce essentially nothing. Financial services, health insurance overhead, lawyers, etc. These sectors are also among the most financially rewarding, so they are sucking up top talent from other sectors. Country that allocates vast financial and people resources to produce nothing is not on a sustainable footing economically.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,848
6,385
126
The US needs an Advanced Tech that is unique and desirable Internationally. Green Tech is an obvious sector where such a thing is likely to come from, but there are other sectors that could deliver as well.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: sandorski
The US needs an Advanced Tech that is unique and desirable Internationally. Green Tech is an obvious sector where such a thing is likely to come from, but there are other sectors that could deliver as well.
Like military?

 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,848
6,385
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: sandorski
The US needs an Advanced Tech that is unique and desirable Internationally. Green Tech is an obvious sector where such a thing is likely to come from, but there are other sectors that could deliver as well.
Like military?

Probably not. The US does Sell Military Tech already, but that is an unreliable Sector to base the whole Economy behind.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
Originally posted by: soccerballtuxThere is no more wealth in manufacturing, we need to go get reeducated as engineers if we want to move forward.

Are you saying that if we re-educate everyone as engineers that we will have enough jobs for all of the new engineers? Let's make it simple and pretend that we merely double the number of engineers. If we double the number of engineers, will the number of jobs available for engineers at currently prevailing wage rates also double? In other words, will an increase in supply magically increase the demand at previous price point?

Let's talk about scientists. We already have a large oversupply of Ph.D. scientists, so would it make sense for us to produce even more scientists?

Also, in your view, do Americans have a monopoly on doing the world's engineering and science work? Is that something that only Americans do well or do the best job at? Wouldn't that be a rather racist notion--that only Americans can do that kind of work, at least at the highest level, and that engineers and scientists in other nations are inferior to American engineers and scientists?

To follow up on what Engineer said, let me point out that wealth has to be created and also that you cannot consume more wealth than you produce. That is to say that we as a nation cannot consume more wealth than we produce which means that we cannot sustain our huge trade deficit forever. As a nation, we need to grow up and focus on becoming self-sufficient instead of selling our hard assets (land and capital) to other nations in exchange for ephemeral consumer goods. This means that we need to address Global Labor Arbitrage and Population Explosion (aka Malthusian Forces). We also need to address the issue of the populace's Rationality Factor.

:thumbsup:
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: sandorski
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: sandorski
The US needs an Advanced Tech that is unique and desirable Internationally. Green Tech is an obvious sector where such a thing is likely to come from, but there are other sectors that could deliver as well.
Like military?

Probably not. The US does Sell Military Tech already, but that is an unreliable Sector to base the whole Economy behind.
It's worked pretty well so far ;)

 
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
76
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
Originally posted by: soccerballtuxThere is no more wealth in manufacturing, we need to go get reeducated as engineers if we want to move forward.

Are you saying that if we re-educate everyone as engineers that we will have enough jobs for all of the new engineers? Let's make it simple and pretend that we merely double the number of engineers. If we double the number of engineers, will the number of jobs available for engineers at currently prevailing wage rates also double? In other words, will an increase in supply magically increase the demand at previous price point?

Let's talk about scientists. We already have a large oversupply of Ph.D. scientists, so would it make sense for us to produce even more scientists?

Also, in your view, do Americans have a monopoly on doing the world's engineering and science work? Is that something that only Americans do well or do the best job at? Wouldn't that be a rather racist notion--that only Americans can do that kind of work, at least at the highest level, and that engineers and scientists in other nations are inferior to American engineers and scientists?

To follow up on what Engineer said, let me point out that wealth has to be created and also that you cannot consume more wealth than you produce. That is to say that we as a nation cannot consume more wealth than we produce which means that we cannot sustain our huge trade deficit forever. As a nation, we need to grow up and focus on becoming self-sufficient instead of selling our hard assets (land and capital) to other nations in exchange for ephemeral consumer goods. This means that we need to address Global Labor Arbitrage and Population Explosion (aka Malthusian Forces). We also need to address the issue of the populace's Rationality Factor.

:thumbsup:

There's plenty of demand for engineers in this recession. No oversupply of engineers.

In my experience, yes, Americans on the whole are better engineers than Asians, Indians. Americans think outside the box. The Asians and Indians educated over there usually get confused because the problem does not fit with the style in which they learned (which is to say, they haven't seen a problem like it before, because they, overwhelmingly, learn by memorization and not problem solving). This only applies to Asians/Indians that were trained in Asian/Indian schools.

I completely agree on your wealth statement. I'm just saying that engineering is where any new wealth can be created-- we can't all be finance or business majors anymore. Engineering is where new solar panel tech is going to come from. Biomedical engineering is where new drugs and cheaper cures are going to come from. Nanotechnology, specifically in relation to biotech. Gene sequencing and engineering. There are plenty of market segments begging to be exploited, that we simply don't have the manpower to explore. And they're all directly related to the field of engineering or health. We have plenty of health tech to sell to the world but we seem hellbent on crippling the system that drives the research, simply because 15% aren't covered. Mark my words, the passing of UHC will be the start of the end of spending on research. All the money will go to curing known diseases, so people will call on the government to spend even more, on research, to pick up the lost slack. Anyways, health would have been the next big thing because prices don't spiral out of control endlessly, eventually the public would have figured out you could make a lot of money doing that, and they'd start to be willing to go spend 10 years of their life in post-secondary education for those paychecks-- it's all about incentives, and currently it's not worth it to us to spend a third of our lives in education to be a doctor. Why people think we should legislate the problem away (when every other country that has tried this has had to ration care and/or quality of services has fallen-- ex. being the USA's cancer survival rates being 50% higher than NHS's) is beyond me.

Best: get an undergrad in engineering. Work for 5 years, master your trade, go back and get an MBA. On the side, learn Chinese. Then you can employ those millions of Chinese engineers by looking at the problem and wording it and phrasing it in a way they can understand.

I'm serious. There's something fundamentally different about the way their children are raised, from the way ours are raised, that affects brain development and their abilities for their entire life. We have our kids solve puzzles, put the cube into the square hole and the prism into the triangular hole. They don't do this (yet). Pray they don't start learn to solve, for your sake; you'd rather them keep memorizing. Otherwise they might turn into big-picture-thinker engineers like we currently have.

Again-- best thing you can do is learn Chinese and think like an engineer; if you want to survive the next 50 years, that is. Of course, we could just blame our way out of it and keep electing people who will "stimulate" to keep us fed and watching TV. It's what every other superpower did on its way down.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,848
6,385
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: sandorski
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: sandorski
The US needs an Advanced Tech that is unique and desirable Internationally. Green Tech is an obvious sector where such a thing is likely to come from, but there are other sectors that could deliver as well.
Like military?

Probably not. The US does Sell Military Tech already, but that is an unreliable Sector to base the whole Economy behind.
It's worked pretty well so far ;)

Only to a certain extent. Nothing on the scale of the PC, which is the scale the US needs.