Economic Recovery? Things are looking pretty good right now.

[retrospooty]

Bernanke says this year we will start on our way back up... Good news on several economic measures, have wall street confident... 5 days of stock market increases nearly 1000 points gained back. Even the local right leaning news radio stations (that's all that there is here in Arizona) are all abuzz bout good economic news.

Its far from over, but it certainly does look like we are bottoming out now and the recovery will start soon. Confidence builds confidence and that is how turnarounds always start... Its going to be really tough for republican candidates the next few elections if the economy is anything but in a tailspin... Its going to be a fun couple of years. =)

 

[Robor]

Oh my, this has the potential for disaster down the road. Edit before it's too late!!!!!

 

[winnar111]

Now maybe we can achieve this phantom 4% growth rate that Team O predicts, if Geithner can sh!t diamonds out of his ass.

 

[nixium]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm enjoying the warm fuzzy feeling this news causes while it lasts.

 

[fskimospy]

So since Obama was at fault for the stock market declining, I guess he's to be credited for it increasing, right? Of course the answer either way is 'no', but I'll be waiting for Limbaugh/Hannity/etc to report on the 'Obama Bull Market'. I'm sure they are preparing their shows now.

 

[Genx87]

Lets hope we have hit rock bottom.

 

[Moonbeam]

I would rather the country die than have a Democrat get any credit for saving it.

 

[blackangst1]

I am predicting a second rash of housing failures about mid year. I dont think its over.

 

[StageLeft]

I honestly have no idea. I will say things looked a lot dimmer a week ago. I wonder if this is just a period of mania between depressive bouts, though.

 

[sandorski]

Too early to be sure. The Auto Sector can still collapse and if that goes things will drop Lower than they have been already.

Then there's issues of Confidence. Will Business and Consumer Spending Increase? If it does not, more Government Stimulus will be required to keep things going and that's something that can only be sustained for a short period(guesstimate 1-2 years tops).

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: blackangst1
I am predicting a second rash of housing failures about mid year. I dont think its over.

then commercial, then credit cards.

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I honestly have no idea. I will say things looked a lot dimmer a week ago. I wonder if this is just a period of mania between depressive bouts, though.

I told you to stop focusing on this bullshit and get out and smell the roses. Do what I tell you, God Damn It.

The market of joy is an endless cornucopia and the more of its fruit you eat the more it will be replenished.

You want to get rich, kiss your wife and kids and say something to make them feel good. Tell them how beautiful they are. Tell yourself, while your at it, too. Let somebody get in front of you in the lane. Do a random act of kindness. Instant karma is gonna get ya if ya do.

 

[zephyrprime]

Things have definitely stabilized but the fundamental problems are not all solved yet. Don't be fooled by this calm. Here are my predictions for the near future:
Good: consumer spending picks up.
Jobs losses moderate (but still no gains).
No big banks collapse (yet)
Subpime foreclosures decline (except in the worse markets)
Mark-to-market partial suspension (this is not a real positive but
Some sort of resolution to the automaker problem + modest pickup in auto sales

Bad (these won't happen right away but will probably happen this year):
Eastern Europe defaults
Commercial real estate collapses
Continuing liquidation of bad CDOs ($102 billion and counting) will hit banks' bottom line
Continuing lack of credit expansion will hurt economy. Forced expansion by governments largely useless and put even more debt burden on citizens.

Next year: alt-a starts to implode.

We're still not doing enough to attack the underlying problem which is too much debt. Unfortunately, the free market will continue to solve the problem in it's only chaotic way (by having people and companies default on their debt).

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: winnar111
Now maybe we can achieve this phantom 4% growth rate that Team O predicts, if Geithner can sh!t diamonds out of his ass.

Ah yes... what would any thread be without mr happy, crapping out his usual negativity =)

 

[Gunslinger08]

I just wish I would have bought Citi a week ago. I could have just made a 150% profit in a week.

 

[cubby1223]

Good. As a conservative, perhaps now we can have the discussion that no, we do not want socialism. There will be no more shenanigans by the Dems in the name of "OH MY GOD IF WE DON'T IMMEDIATELY PASS THIS MASSIVELY COMPLEX LEGISLATION THAT NO ONE HAS READ, THE APOCALYPSE WILL BE UPON US!!!" The Republicans can go back to their rightful place as obstructionists until they regain power.

If anyone thinks this declares permanent victory for Democrats in future elections, think again. There will come time to pay for the stimulus (which hasn't really stimulated anything yet, so why was it so dire for it to be passed?), and the congressional budget, and the health care down payment, etc. etc. etc. As much as people like the stock market going up, they hate paying taxes. And yes, even the poor will see their taxes raised all across the board. Federal taxes, state taxes, social security & medicare withholdings, gasoline tax, cigarette tax, energy tax, suv tax, vehicle mileage tax, sugar tax, alcohol tax, entertainment tax, property tax - they are all going up.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Originally posted by: winnar111
Now maybe we can achieve this phantom 4% growth rate that Team O predicts, if Geithner can sh!t diamonds out of his ass.

Ah yes... what would any thread be without mr happy, crapping out his usual negativity =)

If denying reality is all it took to be successful then Bush should have been the greatest administration in history.

Flip flop your way out of this ridiculous thread boy.

 

[nullzero]

I think the next down leg is around the corner.

 

[brandonb]

Stock market numbers mean nothing.

Are companies hiring or laying people off? Is unemployment goingo up or down?

 

[cubby1223]

Originally posted by: brandonb
Stock market numbers mean nothing.

Are companies hiring or laying people off? Is unemployment goingo up or down?

Don't tell me the stock market may just be profiting from no longer having to pay any employees

 

[shiner]

Don't get too excited, it's just a temporary bump due to my wife going shopping over the weekend.

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: retrospooty

Originally posted by: winnar111
Now maybe we can achieve this phantom 4% growth rate that Team O predicts, if Geithner can sh!t diamonds out of his ass.

Ah yes... what would any thread be without mr happy, crapping out his usual negativity =)

If denying reality is all it took to be successful then Bush should have been the greatest administration in history.

Flip flop your way out of this ridiculous thread boy.

??? I'm not getting you? I was commenting to Winnar, because he never has anything good, or descent to say about anything... ever.

As far as flip flopping out of the thread... I don't need that. I said what I meant, and I meant what I said... Things are at least looking a bit positive right now. Not to say that we are out of the hot water - but things are certainly looking better than they were for the past few months.

 

[alchemize]

Huh? Show me any of these "good news on several economic measures"?

About the best you can say at this point is "maybe we've hit bottom". And I don't believe that to be the case in the housing market which really is driving all of this.

 

[tfcmasta97]

Worst crisis since 1930s says Fed
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7934920.stm

1 business week rally and suddenly a decade building towards a collapse is over? Where's OP getting his info from?

Is he just an 'average guy' trying to make a point for his sig?

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I honestly have no idea. I will say things looked a lot dimmer a week ago. I wonder if this is just a period of mania between depressive bouts, though.

I told you to stop focusing on this bullshit and get out and smell the roses. Do what I tell you, God Damn It.

The market of joy is an endless cornucopia and the more of its fruit you eat the more it will be replenished.

You want to get rich, kiss your wife and kids and say something to make them feel good. Tell them how beautiful they are. Tell yourself, while your at it, too. Let somebody get in front of you in the lane. Do a random act of kindness. Instant karma is gonna get ya if ya do.

Not bad advice, and a bit more pragmatic than usual :thumbsup:

then commercial, then credit cards.

CCs are are mess but how much damage can they really do? I think outstanding CC balances in the US are only a couple trillion and most people will not default on those.

I just wish I would have bought Citi a week ago. I could have just made a 150% profit in a week.

I bought a small bit on Friday after making fun of a co-worker buying it cheaper and watching him make some good coin. I figured it was a gamble, but if Citi doesn't get wiped out in some manner, its stocks will fly way higher than they are now, so really the question and risk (still real, obviously) is that common shareholders will be wiped.

If we're being candid there really is no good news of merit. A few bankers said that they made some money over a couple of months and numbers weren't as awful (although basically all negative) as they could have been.