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ECCp-109 When will we reach 58,421,659 DPs?

58,421,659 is the original expected number of DPs at which the probability of there being a shared value(collision/solution) equals or is greater than 0.5 (i.e., chances are at least even that the next DP submitted will match a DP already submitted that started from a different point). When Chris has these two DPs with different starting points, he can compute the values of the eliptic curve for this challenge.
 
Come on people. Doesn't anyone else want to hazard a guess?

kmmatney, I'd be interested to know why you picked that date. I really think that it will be in September some time, most likely between the 17th and the 23rd, unless we have a real massive slowdown! Do you know something that I don't?
 
Actually, I picked November 10th as the date when the probability of success would be at 50% (using the newer probability calculations), which would be somewhere around 80 million DPs.
 
Add 13.37 seconds to that and date and you be pretty close. (Can anyone guess why I picked that number? 🙂)
 
I'm going to hazard a guess that it'll be a lot sooner than you think. See this thread Lots of new hardware. With network man putting some steel towards it, and me as a new member, that's already an improvement....I give it until next week 😉
 
I did put some ummph into the project for the "race" with Florian, but I've since moved the machines back to SETI where they'll likely stay for quite a while. 😉
 
Looks like we picked up the pace by 12 hours. I'm now predicting 9/17/02 7:36 AM

BUT it could be sooner! DPC will probably start dumping to regain 1st place. As of the 1800 update there are only 136,981 DP to go.
 
Actually, 58421659 was not the a priori expected number of DPs for a solution. That number was based on the number of expected points exp(54.8). Unfortunately, decimal accuracy in an exponent can change things quite a bit. 54.8 was rounded(??) from the true number 54.735616...., resulting in a DP estimate exp(54.8-29) = 58421659 = 53% probability.

A more accurate number for the a priori probability of 50% is DP = 55871794, which we passed some time ago.


But if you like predicting when we will reach a random number of DPs, please, by all means be my guest. 😉
 
Actually Chris wrote:
However, it seems that the iteration function in use now does not have this property, which puts the expected number of needed points to 2^{54.5}sqrt(pi/2) ~ 2^{54.8} or 2^{25.8} ~ 58 million distinguished points.
Click to expand...
and subsequently posted the number I used.


 
and we're there

Project Statistics
Tue Sep 17 12:57:09 2002



(GMT - 5:00 / US - IN)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The basic units of work are Distinguished Points (DP)
One DP represents approximately 52 minutes of work on a PII 400Mhz.


Total distinguished points : 58,493,360
Total user accounts: 8793
During the previous 6.01 hours there were:
New distinguished points: 92,925
New users : 11
Click to expand...
 
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