My prediction is that in 2 years, 4k will rapidly become the norm in the living room. I could be wrong, but judging on past HDTV standards I could see this being the case. Besides which, profit margins on existing 1080p HDTVs is slim to none and panel manufacturers are eager to push the next big time. 4k will be it, but it will take a couple of years to hit prime time in terms of pricing.
Your paragraph is contradictory. You say that 1080P TVs have low margins and you imply that 4K will allow the TV manufacturers to compensate for sagging profitability by raising prices and thus return to higher levels of profitability by having an incentive to push more expensive 4K TVs onto consumers. But if prices of 4K TVs are much higher, then their market adoption is going to be very slow because most consumers do not want to pay $3000+ for 60 inch 4K TVs. They will also quickly realize when viewing the TVs in the store and conversations with friends who follow tech that
4K TVs do not provide any tangible image quality increase in the living room unless you sit 5.5 feet away from a TV with 84" size or larger.
"With video on a TV, the difference between 4K/UHD and 1080p/HD resolution is really hard to see. Many of the words in those reviews were written on a laptop in my lab at a theatrically close seating distance, comparing a 65-inch 1080p and a 65-inch 4K TV. Despite all the extra pixels I knew made up the 4K TV's screen, most of the time I didn't see any difference at all, especially with HD TV shows and Blu-rays. The differences in detail I did see were limited to the very best 4K demo material. Larger TVs or closer seating distances make that difference more visible, as do computer graphics, animation, and games, but even then it's not drastic." ~ Source
Since I am not a researcher in this space, I'd rather rely on companies that specialize in predicting market trends. Your estimate of 4K being adopted widely in the living room within 2 years is far off any other estimates by professionals.
Study 1
"A new study by ABI Research, claims that ​Asia-Pacific, and China in particular, is expected to lead Ultra HD TV unit shipments, though North America will be the leader when it comes to 4K adoption and will be the first market to pass 5% adoption in 2017 and 10% at the end of 2018." ~ Nov 8, 2013 Article
Study 2
A more optimistic study by Consumer Electronics at Futuresource Consulting concludes that wide adoption won't happen until 2017:
“And although 4K—the next step in ultra-high definition video—still has a two to three year incubation period ahead, it is making its presence known and is on track to become a significant technology segment. Global 4K TV shipments will grow from just 62,000 units last year, to 780,000 in 2013 and 22 million units in 2017. The arrival of native 4K content and increased consumer awareness will help boost sales from 2015 onwards.” - See more at:
http://www.tvtechnology.com/article...-rebound-on-k-in-/220403#sthash.JAoxLtat.dpuf
Even then, they are talking about wide adoption as a % of sales in 2017, not as a fraction of all TVs being 4K in the world.
With 4K TVs in the consumer space being far away from reaching mainstream segment, that leaves 4K on the PC. Even though 1440p/1600P monitors were available for a long time now, their adoption on Steam is minuscule (0.98% and 0.16%). Since the adoption of 4K HDTVs is expected to be very slow, the economies of scale won't be there to accelerate the drop in prices of 4K PC monitors quickly enough for larger sizes, while 4K on smaller-sized monitors such as 21-24" is pretty questionable until Windows scaling improves.
Then we get to the GPU side. Right now GTX780Ti SLI and R9 290X CF get their butts kicked in games like
Crysis 3 and Metro LL at 4K. Playing at Medium settings, 40 fps or lower in an FPS, or dropping down to 1080p on a 4K monitor isn't logical since in that case a 1440p/1600p monitor at VH/Ultra settings would provide superior performance and IQ.
Games like
Witcher 3 made specifically for the PC and next gen consoles should be even more demanding than Crysis 3. For all intents and purposes, 4K for the mainsteam the way it's intended is a pipe dream until about Volta. Maxwell GTX880 SLI might be able to handle it but not many people have $1.2K+ to drop on GPUs and $1K on a 4K monitor. I am going against your prediction and be more conservative in predicting that it'll be a while before 4K is "mainstream" on the PC too - probably around mid-2017.