Dullard's Top 25 College Football Week #12

[dullard]

Well not much mix-up in the top 25 this week. Too many conference games which basically have almost no effect on the computer programs. For example team A has played B and C. When team B then plays C, it gives no additional information to team A. Basically their opponents get one more win and one more loss - cancelling itself out. And ususally the conference games also have very little effect on teams B and C as well since it affects their opponents similarly but in a more complex way. The whole game could have been skipped and we wouldn't have lost much information. Oh well, we are stuck with conferences probably for the rest of time.

This week the big movers in place and rating are Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Virginia Tech. Sure some other teams moved a lot of places in the computer ranking but basically it meant they went from the top of a tie to a bottom of a tie. For example look at the teams placed 9 through 12. All their ratings are so close that even a small change in one game could move them many places up or down.

I know I'll still get flamed for USC at the top. But again it is their schedule difficulty. If they keep winning they certainly deserve to be in the top 5 - if they lose again you can be sure they will plummet in this computer program.

Place / Sch.Diff / Rating / Team name
01 / 01 / 57.1 / Southern California
02 / 57 / 56.5 / Miami Florida
03 / 59 / 53.9 / Kansas St.
04 / 22 / 53.9 / Oklahoma
05 / 49 / 52.3 / Ohio St.
06 / 37 / 51.5 / Texas
07 / 53 / 50.6 / Iowa
08 / 34 / 50.1 / Georgia
09 / 23 / 49.9 / Washington St.
10 / 16 / 49.9 / Alabama
11 / 03 / 49.6 / Florida St.
12 / 07 / 49.4 / Arkansas
13 / 18 / 47.0 / Penn St.
14 / 64 / 46.9 / Maryland
15 / 13 / 46.5 / Notre Dame
16 / 108/ 46.1 / Boise St.
17 / 08 / 46.0 / UCLA
18 / 32 / 45.5 / Oregon St.
19 / 51 / 45.2 / LSU
20 / 10 / 45.2 / Michigan
21 / 05 / 44.9 / California
22 / 78 / 44.4 / North Carolina St.
23 / 06 / 44.3 / Colorado
24 / 45 / 44.2 / Auburn
25 / 44 / 43.8 / Oregon

 

[hdeck]

eh, can't say i agree with many of your choices.

 

[toant103]

VT is not in there?

Hmmmmmmmm

 

[Parrotheader]

My team, Alabama, fell 4 spots in your poll this week even though we won. I'm assuming that's probably a lot to do with Oklahoma losing to Texas A&M and Tennessee losing to Miami more than the fact that Bama didn't really blow Miss St. completely away. Then again, Arkansas destroyed South Carolina and we destroyed them. Doesn't really matter though as it's just a poll and meant for entertainment purposes.

EDIT: I did find it a bit odd that Arkansas' strength of schedule is ranked #7 (ahead of Alabama's) even though they played/playing 4 cupcakes in Boise State, South Florida, Louisiana-Lafayette and Troy State while having to play only Kentucky and South Carolina (arguably 2 out of the 3 weakest teams) from the SEC East. Their schedule is an absolute joke if you ask me. Does margin of victory over cupcakes like that play THAT big a role in your ranking algorithm? I know South Florida and Boise State might be having fairly good years and cupcakes might be a bit harsh. But the vast majority of the time, programs like that will lose to a program like Arkansas just due to the sheer difference in the quality of athletes each school can get.

Thanks for the weekly updates.

 

[IamDavid]

"07 / 53 / 50.6 / Iowa"

College FB sucks.. Iowa should be playing for the Nation championship..

 

[dullard]

VT is not in there?

Virginia tech: Place: 26, Rating 43.4, Schedule difficulty: 71
They just missed out of the top 25. It is their easy schedule they've played so far that really hurts them. Plus what happened to the blow-outs from the years past? And with Syracuse having only 3 other wins, it is easy to drop just out of the top 25.

Alabama, fell 4 spots in your poll this week even though we won.

Like I said above, some teams moved a lot of places but really didn't change in rating (the important number to compare). Alabama, Georgia, and Washington State are in a virtual tie. There isn't a real good way to tell them apart yet. So week to week those three teams will change a bunch. Last week Alabama was at the top of that tie, this week at the bottom. So I think they basically stayed the same. You also have to look at the opponents (Alabama's oppoents were 4 and 5 last week). Possibly Alabama's opponents didn't do so well compared to the oponents of the other teams. Yes you can win, but if many of your opponents falter, it makes you look less.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Parrotheader

EDIT: I did find it a bit odd that Arkansas' strength of schedule is ranked #7 (ahead of Alabama's) even though they played/playing 4 cupcakes in Boise State, South Florida, Louisiana-Lafayette and Troy State while having to play only Kentucky and South Carolina (arguably 2 out of the 3 weakest teams) from the SEC East. Their schedule is an absolute joke if you ask me. Does margin of victory over cupcakes like that play THAT big a role in your ranking algorithm? I know South Florida and Boise State might be having fairly good years and cupcakes might be a bit harsh. But the vast majority of the time, programs like that will lose to a program like Arkansas just due to the sheer difference in the quality of athletes each school can get.

Thanks for the weekly updates.

Here is the really simple formula I use for schedule strength:
1) I determine the rating for every team.
2) I average the rating of all the opponents your team played.
3) I sort these average ratings and give them difficulty rankings from #1 to #117.
Honestly there isn't much difference between many of the schedules. Thus Alabama and Arkansas are really close in schedule difficulty, but Arkansas is more at the top of the near tie and Alabama is at the bottom. All teams play cupcakes - but I have to disagree with the Boise State cupcake term. They are in the top 25 of the coaches poll and they are 26th in the AP poll. Not what I'd call a cupcake. If Boise State didn't play Arkansas, they'd be undefeated. And don't forget Tennesse and Auburn. Sure none of these are ranked really high, but all of them add to the average of the schedule difficulty. Once Alabama plays Auburn and LSU, their schedule difficulty will soar.

You are welcome for the updates, I like to do it.

As for point margin it varies week by week. I adjust all the parameters each week so that it can best predict the outcomes. In the beginning you really need to emphasize points to get any reasonable predictions for next weeks games. As time goes on, you can eventually start to emphasize numbers of wins and losses. If I remember right the current score cutoff is about 28. Meaning you need to beat a cupcake by at least 28 - but beating them by more won't affect your rating at all. If you beat a cupcake by less than 28, it hurts you in the ratings.