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Dullard's Final 2003 College Football Rankings

dullard

dullard

Elite Member
Sorry LSU fans, my computer didn't quite get you to 1st place. Congrats on your national championship though, you deserve it.

Win Place / Win Rating ( Score Place / Score Rating ) Team name
01 / 51.8 ( 01 / 59.1 ) Southern California
02 / 49.6 ( 02 / 58.2 ) LSU
03 / 47.1 ( 03 / 56.8 ) Oklahoma
04 / 45.0 ( 07 / 51.0 ) Georgia
05 / 44.6 ( 12 / 48.0 ) Ohio St.
06 / 44.2 ( 04 / 52.2 ) Florida St.
07 / 44.0 ( 08 / 49.7 ) Miami Ohio
08 / 43.6 ( 09 / 49.3 ) Miami Florida
09 / 43.5 ( 05 / 51.3 ) Michigan
10 / 42.8 ( 11 / 48.2 ) Iowa
11 / 41.8 ( 06 / 51.0 ) Kansas St.
12 / 41.8 ( 14 / 45.8 ) Washington St.
13 / 41.4 ( 10 / 49.3 ) Texas
14 / 41.2 ( 22 / 43.8 ) Utah
15 / 41.0 ( 16 / 45.4 ) Boise St.
16 / 40.8 ( 13 / 46.9 ) Maryland
17 / 40.3 ( 18 / 44.7 ) Tennessee
18 / 39.5 ( 19 / 44.5 ) Nebraska
19 / 39.3 ( 23 / 43.8 ) Purdue
20 / 38.6 ( 20 / 44.2 ) Clemson
21 / 38.6 ( 15 / 45.6 ) Minnesota
22 / 38.4 ( 21 / 44.1 ) Mississippi
23 / 38.2 ( 17 / 44.9 ) Arkansas
24 / 36.1 ( 24 / 42.3 ) North Carolina St.
25 / 35.7 ( 30 / 41.1 ) Oklahoma St.
26 / 35.7 ( 26 / 42.1 ) Virginia
27 / 35.6 ( 27 / 41.6 ) Florida
28 / 35.3 ( 25 / 42.3 ) Auburn
29 / 34.9 ( 40 / 36.7 ) Bowling Green
30 / 34.5 ( 29 / 41.4 ) California
31 / 34.5 ( 32 / 39.8 ) Michigan St.
32 / 34.3 ( 45 / 35.3 ) TCU
33 / 34.2 ( 31 / 40.7 ) Oregon St.
34 / 34.2 ( 42 / 36.2 ) Oregon
35 / 33.9 ( 28 / 41.6 ) Virginia Tech
36 / 33.8 ( 34 / 38.1 ) West Virginia
37 / 33.7 ( 33 / 39.2 ) Texas Tech
38 / 33.2 ( 38 / 36.9 ) Connecticut
39 / 32.8 ( 37 / 37.3 ) Pittsburgh
40 / 32.7 ( 46 / 35.2 ) Northern Illinois
41 / 32.6 ( 35 / 38.1 ) Wisconsin
42 / 32.6 ( 39 / 36.9 ) Boston College
43 / 32.5 ( 48 / 34.0 ) Southern Miss
44 / 32.0 ( 41 / 36.4 ) Georgia Tech
45 / 31.6 ( 43 / 35.8 ) New Mexico
46 / 31.4 ( 36 / 38.0 ) Missouri
47 / 30.7 ( 44 / 35.5 ) Colorado St.
48 / 30.4 ( 55 / 32.9 ) Marshall
49 / 30.1 ( 47 / 34.1 ) Air Force
50 / 30.0 ( 56 / 32.1 ) Louisville
51 / 29.8 ( 49 / 33.9 ) Memphis
52 / 29.7 ( 51 / 33.7 ) Washington
53 / 29.1 ( 57 / 31.8 ) Notre Dame
54 / 28.7 ( 59 / 31.1 ) Toledo
55 / 28.4 ( 53 / 33.3 ) South Carolina
56 / 28.3 ( 50 / 33.9 ) Wake Forest
57 / 28.2 ( 63 / 29.9 ) Hawaii
58 / 28.1 ( 52 / 33.5 ) Syracuse
59 / 27.6 ( 61 / 30.1 ) North Texas
60 / 27.5 ( 70 / 28.6 ) Fresno St.
61 / 27.4 ( 65 / 29.6 ) Northwestern
62 / 27.3 ( 62 / 30.0 ) UNLV
63 / 26.7 ( 64 / 29.7 ) UCLA
64 / 26.5 ( 60 / 30.4 ) Colorado
65 / 26.5 ( 72 / 27.7 ) Tulsa
66 / 26.4 ( 58 / 31.2 ) Navy
67 / 26.0 ( 54 / 33.2 ) Alabama
68 / 25.8 ( 67 / 28.9 ) San Diego St.
69 / 25.6 ( 66 / 29.2 ) Arizona St.
70 / 25.4 ( 68 / 28.8 ) Kansas
71 / 24.3 ( 76 / 25.1 ) Stanford
72 / 23.7 ( 71 / 27.8 ) Rutgers
73 / 23.6 ( 77 / 24.9 ) South Florida
74 / 23.3 ( 78 / 24.2 ) Houston
75 / 23.2 ( 74 / 25.5 ) Brigham Young
76 / 22.7 ( 75 / 25.4 ) Akron
77 / 22.3 ( 83 / 22.7 ) Nevada
78 / 22.3 ( 69 / 28.7 ) Penn St.
79 / 21.8 ( 81 / 23.0 ) Texas A&M
80 / 21.5 ( 79 / 23.8 ) Duke
81 / 21.3 ( 85 / 21.9 ) Louisiana Tech
82 / 20.9 ( 86 / 21.7 ) UAB
83 / 20.5 ( 73 / 27.0 ) Kentucky
84 / 20.4 ( 80 / 23.7 ) Wyoming
85 / 19.9 ( 82 / 22.7 ) Cincinnati
86 / 19.8 ( 89 / 19.6 ) Troy St.
87 / 19.7 ( 88 / 21.0 ) Rice
88 / 19.6 ( 84 / 22.5 ) Western Michigan
89 / 17.8 ( 93 / 18.0 ) Tulane
90 / 17.7 ( 91 / 19.1 ) Kent St.
91 / 17.0 ( 87 / 21.5 ) North Carolina
92 / 17.0 ( 94 / 17.6 ) Arizona
93 / 15.7 ( 97 / 15.8 ) Ball St.
94 / 15.4 ( 92 / 18.8 ) Middle Tennessee
95 / 14.9 ( 98 / 15.7 ) San Jose St.
96 / 14.7 ( 100 / 15.2 ) Iowa St.
97 / 14.7 ( 90 / 19.2 ) Vanderbilt
98 / 14.6 ( 105 / 14.1 ) Baylor
99 / 14.4 ( 104 / 14.4 ) Mississippi St.
100 / 13.2 ( 106 / 13.7 ) Louisiana-Lafayette
101 / 13.2 ( 96 / 16.2 ) Illinois
102 / 13.0 ( 101 / 14.9 ) Indiana
103 / 12.6 ( 95 / 16.3 ) Utah St.
104 / 11.2 ( 102 / 14.7 ) Idaho
105 / 11.1 ( 109 / 9.7 ) Arkansas St.
106 / 10.6 ( 103 / 14.4 ) New Mexico St.
107 / 10.4 ( 99 / 15.4 ) Temple
108 / 9.7 ( 108 / 10.6 ) UCF
109 / 9.0 ( 111 / 8.2 ) Eastern Michigan
110 / 8.5 ( 110 / 9.5 ) Central Michigan
111 / 8.4 ( 107 / 11.8 ) Ohio
112 / 6.2 ( 112 / 7.7 ) East Carolina
113 / 6.1 ( 114 / 5.7 ) Buffalo
114 / 4.5 ( 113 / 5.9 ) Louisiana Monroe
115 / 4.1 ( 116 / 2.0 ) UTEP
116 / 3.6 ( 115 / 3.7 ) SMU
117 / 0.0 ( 117 / 0.0 ) Army
 
Top looks good to me, only ? is how Miami was ranked behind FSU after beating them twice.
 
Originally posted by: 95SS
Top looks good to me, only ? is how Miami was ranked behind FSU after beating them twice.
Click to expand...
It is a quirk of computer programs. No ranking will get everything right. But Miami losing big to a team outside of the top 25 hurt them more than FSU losing to a good team (because of yet another FSU missed field goal). Oh well, I'm not going to try and defend anything tonight. Have a good night. Miami does deserve to be ahead of FSU.
 
Just out of curiosity, do your rankings factor in margin of victory (something the BCS left out this year)? And if so, do you put a limit on it (for example, if the limit is 21 pts, winning by 21 pts is the same as winning by 50)?

-Tom
 
Originally posted by: 95SS
Top looks good to me, only ? is how Miami was ranked behind FSU after beating them twice.
Click to expand...

Yeah seriously... I think beating them twice is just a thing that needs to count for more than it obviously does here....
 
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: 95SS
Top looks good to me, only ? is how Miami was ranked behind FSU after beating them twice.
Click to expand...
It is a quirk of computer programs. No ranking will get everything right. But Miami losing to a poor team hurt them more than FSU losing to a good team. Oh well, I'm not going to try and defend anything tonight. Have a good night.
Click to expand...

I'm not attacking your ratings, just curious. Clemson's strong finish combined with VA Tech's horrible finish makes a good case. I was wondering how much weight H2H matchups get.
 
Originally posted by: Soccer55
Just out of curiosity, do your rankings factor in margin of victory (something the BCS left out this year)? And if so, do you put a limit on it (for example, if the limit is 21 pts, winning by 21 pts is the same as winning by 50)?
Click to expand...
Yes it does and yes I do. The rankings which tend to pick the winner more often (labeled as Win rankings) used a final cutoff of 19 points. Anything more than 19 points doesn't help. The rankings which tend to pick the score more closely (labeled as Score rankings) used a final cutoff of 32 points. Anything more than 32 doesn't help.
 
I expected USC to keep their lead, since they won by more points and were already ahead. Personally I think USC played a better game, too.

I find it interesting now that all is said and done, The team that LSU lost to is only 4 places ahead of the team that USC lost to in the win rating and only 0.2 points ahead in the score rating.
 
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
I expected USC to keep their lead, since they won by more points and were already ahead. Personally I think USC played a better game, too.

I find it interesting now that all is said and done, The team that LSU lost to is only 4 places ahead of the team that USC lost to in the win rating and only 0.2 points ahead in the score rating.
Click to expand...
I think they both got what they deserved: a share in the national championship. Looking at the two teams, they are nearly identical in every way:
A) USC and LSU both had nearly perfect seasons - and both won against good teams in their bowls.
B) USC lost to an 8-6 team, LSU lost to a 8-5 team. All season people kept saying that Cal is so horrible and that Florida is so good, but in the end Cal and Florida both were ranked about the same.
C) We have comparison games again showing nearly identical results:
USC beat Auburn by 23, LSU beat Auburn by 24.
USC beat Arizona by 45, LSU beat Arizona by 46.
D) Both came from conferences that did quite well in all of their bowl games.
E) Finally we have overall margin of victory:
USC averaged 41.1 points, and allowed an average of 18.4 points - a net gain of 22.7
LSU averaged 34.9 points, and allowed an average of 10.8 points - a net gain of 24.1
So even their average margin of victory was quite close.
 
Your final rankings are a bit off in my opinion. Here's why:

Considering the top 30 here, the following is true:

LSU beat #4, #4, #28, #22, and #3. Only loss was to #27.
USC beat #12, #28, and #9. Only loss was to #30

Seems fairly obvious to me that LSU had a better season.
 
Georgia.. did they win half their games this year ?
rolleye.gif
 
Originally posted by: Dead Parrot Sketch
Georgia.. did they win half their games this year ?
rolleye.gif
Click to expand...

Take away their 2 games with LSU and they had a great season

Still think LSU should get the nod since their conference is 10 times better than the Pac-10
 
Originally posted by: royaldank
Your final rankings are a bit off in my opinion. Here's why:

Considering the top 30 here, the following is true:

LSU beat #4, #4, #28, #22, and #3. Only loss was to #27.
USC beat #12, #28, and #9. Only loss was to #30

Seems fairly obvious to me that LSU had a better season.
Click to expand...
Sure if you just hand pick 5 games of the season and ingore the rest. All of LSU's other games were cupcakes (including an 1AA team). USC on the other hand played a lot of teams just outside the top 30: Oregon, Oregon State, etc. So when USC beat the 30-40 ranked teams by ~22 points and LSU beat the ~100-150 ranked teams by 24 points it really helps USC on all of those remaining games.
 
Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
Originally posted by: Dead Parrot Sketch
Georgia.. did they win half their games this year ?
rolleye.gif
Click to expand...

rolleye.gif


not counting their losses to the co national champions, they only lost 1 game.
Click to expand...


So they lost 3 times, but only one of them counts ?

Cool.


 
Originally posted by: Nitemare
Still think LSU should get the nod since their conference is 10 times better than the Pac-10
Click to expand...
That may be true in the past, but this year I think the Pac-10 did quite well. If I counted right they were 1 point away from being 5/1 in the bowl games (and a 6 win 7 loss UCLA would never have been allowed to play a bowl in previous years due to the more wins than losses rule).

I never took the time to program conference tracking into my program but Sagarin did. Here is his average conference rating:
ACC: 79.11
SEC: 78.67
Pac-10: 76.79
Big-10: 76.44
Big-12: 75.61
Big East: 73.86
Mountain west: 72.14
Mid-American: 64.68
CUSA: 64.16

The Pac-10 is right up there this year.
 
Just curious because my team (Alabama) sucked horribly this year, but did you have a strength of schedule component in yours? It doesn't really help the fact that Alabama sucked this year, but our schedule appeared absolutely brutal even before the season started and it would seem that that definitely proved true by the end of the year. I know Notre Dame's schedule was ranked pretty highly as well.
 
Originally posted by: Dead Parrot Sketch
Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
Originally posted by: Dead Parrot Sketch
Georgia.. did they win half their games this year ?
rolleye.gif
Click to expand...

rolleye.gif


not counting their losses to the co national champions, they only lost 1 game.
Click to expand...


So they lost 3 times, but only one of them counts ?

Cool.
Click to expand...

let's see, you asked if a team that went 10-3 won HALF their games and you wonder about MY response??
 
Originally posted by: Nitemare
Originally posted by: Dead Parrot Sketch
Georgia.. did they win half their games this year ?
rolleye.gif
Click to expand...

Take away their 2 games with LSU and they had a great season

Still think LSU should get the nod since their conference is 10 times better than the Pac-10
Click to expand...
Georgia lost 3 games - in the toughest schedule of any top 25 team. Georgia lost to the #1 team (twice) and they lost to the #25 team (the same team that beat LSU). Georgia really must be then put at the top of the 3 loss teams. There are 2 good teams with 1 loss and 3 good teams with 2 losses. So going by losses only, Georgia should be #6 just behind those 5 teams.
 
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: royaldank
Your final rankings are a bit off in my opinion. Here's why:

Considering the top 30 here, the following is true:

LSU beat #4, #4, #28, #22, and #3. Only loss was to #27.
USC beat #12, #28, and #9. Only loss was to #30

Seems fairly obvious to me that LSU had a better season.
Click to expand...
Sure if you just hand pick 5 games of the season and ingore the rest. All of LSU's other games were cupcakes (including an 1AA team). USC on the other hand played a lot of teams just outside the top 30: Oregon, Oregon State, etc. So when USC beat the 30-40 ranked teams by ~22 points and LSU beat the ~100-150 ranked teams by 24 points it really helps USC on all of those remaining games.
Click to expand...

I guess we agree to disagree. I don't see anything outside of the top 30 or so teams being very important, especially if you've beaten 5 top 30 teams. They were supposed to win those games, and both teams won those games. Point margin isn't all it's cracked up to be and one of the reasons why the human polls are so slanted. I still say that viewing the entire season, LSU had a better season. They beat GA twice whose #4. They beat #3. Granted, USC didn't get to play them, but I don't think that matters. USC can say they tried to schedule good teams, but in the end, they didn't play as good of a schedule and came up second. Most people just can't see how bad the human polls are when ranking teams or understand how slanted and biased they are towards public opinion. I'd have to say the BCS got the right teams and we had a heck of a game. The BCS was put in place as a tie-breaker between 3 tied teams. It was decided that rather than take a popularity contest, we'd run a bunch of mathematical equations and take that instead of whomever ESPN likes that week. Oh well. That is the wonder of college football.

Thanks for sharing this season Dullard. Hope you do so again next year. It's been fun.
 
Originally posted by: Parrotheader
Just curious because my team (Alabama) sucked horribly this year, but did you have a strength of schedule component in yours? It doesn't really help the fact that Alabama sucked this year, but our schedule appeared absolutely brutal even before the season started and it would seem that that definitely proved true by the end of the year. I know Notre Dame's schedule was ranked pretty highly as well.
Click to expand...
I didn't bring the updated numbers with me. Yes Notre Dame was the toughest schedule at one point in my program. I never memorized Alabama's SOS. Use
Sagarin's SOS as it is close to mine. Sagarin had Alabama at #3 SOS.
 
Originally posted by: royaldank
I guess we agree to disagree. I don't see anything outside of the top 30 or so teams being very important, especially if you've beaten 5 top 30 teams. They were supposed to win those games, and both teams won those games. Point margin isn't all it's cracked up to be and one of the reasons why the human polls are so slanted. I still say that viewing the entire season, LSU had a better season. They beat GA twice whose #4. They beat #3. Granted, USC didn't get to play them, but I don't think that matters. USC can say they tried to schedule good teams, but in the end, they didn't play as good of a schedule and came up second. Most people just can't see how bad the human polls are when ranking teams or understand how slanted and biased they are towards public opinion. I'd have to say the BCS got the right teams and we had a heck of a game. The BCS was put in place as a tie-breaker between 3 tied teams. It was decided that rather than take a popularity contest, we'd run a bunch of mathematical equations and take that instead of whomever ESPN likes that week. Oh well. That is the wonder of college football.

Thanks for sharing this season Dullard. Hope you do so again next year. It's been fun.
Click to expand...
A lot of people agree with you - that only your games against the top X teams should count. That is a valid argument and I cannot rebutt it with a good argument. My only argument is a philosophical questipn: why bother playing those games if they don't count? If you do throw away all the games against easier teams, then I too agree that point margin isn't too important. But if you do consider the whole season, all ~14 games, then point margin MUST be used. Beating Army by 1 point is not the same as beating Michigan State by 14 points. You would have thrown both of those games out. I say if you can only beat the last place team by 1 point, then you deserve to be harmed in the ratings. If you choose to play easy teams, then you must blow them away or you aren't a good team.

I'd love a playoff system. USC vs LSU would be a great matchup. If you ask me, LSU would win by a field goal.
 
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