Dullard's College Football - Week 5, 2006

[dullard]

Originally posted by: kalster
does your program have a component to weigh home and road wins?

Road/Home is not included in the ratings. I've always considered it, but never put it in. I can't quite convince myself to punish a team for having a good home fan base.

For the predictions, on average, home teams get a 3 point advantage. This is an average of all teams over all games over many years of me doing this. Some individual teams may have a home field disadvantage or a bigger advantage, but I've never looked that closely.

Originally posted by: Jawo
VT as 45th? I know they aren't top 10 even before last weekend, that seems absurdly low (beneath Navy and NC State?). However glad to see WVU is not in the top 10.

It just doesn't like VT this year. They've played 4 cupcakes and didn't even win all of those games convincingly. The only challenge was Ga Tech and they lost; it wasn't even a narrow loss.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: msparish
The win rating has nothing to do with the scores. Only who beat who. The score rating takes the scores into consideration, in which case OSU is #1, Washington is no where near #7, etc.

Edit: Seems that this might be a mistake based on the dullard's post above. This is how I thought it worked. Any clarification dullard?

Both ratings take into account the wins, the quality of opponents, and the scores. The difference is how each of those factors is weighted. The win rating chooses the weighting factors to give the highest percent of teams ahead of teams that they beat in the last week. The score rating chooses the weighting factors to best predict last week's scores.

Originally posted by: slsmnaz
I would also like to know how Cal (another PAC-10 team) is just barely behind Tenn. Do you really think those 2 teams are close this season?

The program always seems to like Cal. At this point, if ALL you go off is that both teams have 4-1 records, both have roughly equivalent opponents so far, and both have one their games by reasonably close amounts, why wouldn't you rank them near each other. Sure, humans have the advantage of knowing that Cal historically blows the big games and that Tenn historically does well in the big games. But that is why human polls are still included.

 

[slsmnaz]

Originally posted by: dullard

The program always seems to like Cal. At this point, if ALL you go off is that both teams have 4-1 records, both have roughly equivalent opponents so far, and both have one their games by reasonably close amounts, why wouldn't you rank them near each other. Sure, humans have the advantage of knowing that Cal historically blows the big games and that Tenn historically does well in the big games. But that is why human polls are still included.

My point was they played each other and UT demolished them. Oh well, it should all shake out as the season progresses.

 

[BlancoNino]

Originally posted by: dullard
Washington really jumped this week to my dismay. I'm an anti-Washington fan. Oh well. This early on, the number of wins/losses is really important. The fact that Washington beat several teams without any other loss must be what put them up there. The score rating does have Washington much further back at #27th. I believe they belong closer to #27 than the #7 that the win rating gives. Lets just call it a fluke because Washington is going to lose several of the next few games.

I think Washington will make it to a small time bowl...I see them beating Oregon State, Arizona State, and Stanford (IMO, the worst 3 teams in the pac-10) since they play them at home. They will probably lose to Cal, USC, Oregon...and the Apple Cup is ALWAYS anybody's game.

But I do have to admit...this next week game at USC is looking very interesting for Washington. Washington passed for 300 yards against Arizona compared to USC's 179. Overall, Washington and USC played Arizona relatively the same. Also, USC had a tough time stopping Vince Young when he ran. Stanback is faster than Young...but I doubt he'll be able to do much, but it's something to take into consideration.

 

[JohnCU]

Clemson is ranked #15 in all national polls and only 25th in your poll? We're the highest ranked ACC team right now.

 

[TuxDave]

Where's the update???

 

[JohnCU]

Originally posted by: JohnCU
Clemson is ranked #12 in all national polls and only 25th in your poll? We're the highest ranked ACC team right now.

fixed.

 

[drum]

i smell a significant drop for oregon :laugh:

/go blue

 

[KLin]

I still can't believe Fresno State lost to Utah State. How embarrassing .

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: TuxDave
Where's the update???

I don't post on weekends. I don't use the internet on weekends. You just have to wait until Mondays.

Originally posted by: drum
i smell a significant drop for oregon :laugh:

Yep, Oregon's drop was one of the largest drops (Nothing compared to Fresno St.'s drop though) this week. They lost, and their quality win Oklahoma lost. Down 10 places for Oregon.

Originally posted by: KLin
I still can't believe Fresno State lost to Utah State. How embarrassing .

Fresno St. should be embarassed. Its my dad's favorite team. And they lost to otherwise winless Utah St.