Dullard's College Football - Week 3, 2006

[dullard]

My program isn't very accurate when any team has played less than ~3 games. So far, some teams have only played one game. But, anyways, here it is for week #3.

All teams within the same division start out equal weights. No weighting is continued from last year. Thus, some of the positions may look quite odd. I'm considering including last year's results for these early week posts. I'm not sure if I'll take the time to do that though.

Bonus test question: see if you can spot ANY team ranked lower in the Win Rating than a team they beat last week. Of the 300+ games, this only occured 2 times this week.

Place , Win Rating , Score Rating , W , L , Team name
01 , 74.4 , 88.3 , 3 , 0 , Michigan
02 , 71.4 , 63.7 , 3 , 0 , Iowa
03 , 70.0 , 81.3 , 3 , 0 , Virginia Tech
04 , 69.0 , 57.9 , 3 , 0 , Wake Forest
05 , 68.4 , 91.7 , 2 , 0 , Southern Cal
06 , 67.7 , 59.9 , 3 , 0 , Boston College
07 , 66.9 , 70.5 , 3 , 0 , Rutgers
08 , 66.3 , 71.0 , 2 , 1 , Notre Dame
09 , 63.6 , 87.8 , 3 , 0 , Florida
10 , 60.6 , 72.5 , 3 , 0 , Auburn
11 , 58.6 , 71.6 , 3 , 0 , TCU
12 , 58.4 , 47.8 , 3 , 0 , Kansas St
13 , 57.9 , 91.9 , 2 , 1 , Tennessee
14 , 57.6 , 62.0 , 2 , 1 , Penn State
15 , 55.8 , 37.2 , 3 , 0 , Oregon
16 , 55.3 , 80.0 , 3 , 0 , Ohio State
17 , 54.6 , 56.0 , 2 , 1 , Clemson
18 , 54.6 , 68.7 , 3 , 0 , Alabama
19 , 53.6 , 59.7 , 3 , 0 , Oklahoma St
20 , 52.8 , 49.5 , 1 , 2 , Syracuse
21 , 52.7 , 59.6 , 3 , 0 , West Virginia
22 , 52.2 , 52.3 , 1 , 1 , Connecticut
23 , 52.2 , 53.4 , 1 , 2 , Central Michigan
24 , 51.9 , 47.3 , 2 , 1 , Iowa St
25 , 51.2 , 62.1 , 2 , 1 , Georgia Tech
26 , 50.8 , 65.1 , 3 , 0 , Boise St
27 , 50.5 , 79.1 , 2 , 1 , California
28 , 50.1 , 65.8 , 2 , 1 , LSU
29 , 49.9 , 35.5 , 2 , 1 , Oklahoma
30 , 49.3 , 56.6 , 2 , 1 , Washington St
31 , 48.9 , 51.6 , 1 , 2 , North Carolina
32 , 48.6 , 56.2 , 3 , 0 , Michigan St
33 , 48.3 , 72.3 , 2 , 1 , Nebraska
34 , 48.2 , 57.5 , 2 , 1 , Ohio U.
35 , 46.9 , 45.6 , 3 , 0 , Texas A&M
36 , 46.6 , 63.9 , 2 , 0 , UCLA
37 , 45.7 , 69.1 , 1 , 1 , Hawai`i
38 , 45.2 , 57.1 , 3 , 0 , Georgia
39 , 44.5 , 51.1 , 2 , 1 , Arkansas
40 , 44.3 , 18.7 , 2 , 1 , Washington
41 , 43.0 , 60.5 , 2 , 1 , Southern Miss
42 , 42.8 , 43.5 , 0 , 3 , Duke
43 , 42.0 , 54.5 , 2 , 1 , Pittsburgh
44 , 41.5 , 66.4 , 3 , 0 , Louisville
45 , 41.4 , 53.2 , 3 , 0 , Missouri
46 , 41.3 , 48.5 , 2 , 1 , Florida St
47 , 41.2 , 91.6 , 0 , 1 , Air Force
48 , 40.7 , 33.0 , 3 , 0 , Navy
49 , 40.7 , 71.0 , 2 , 1 , Texas
50 , 40.6 , 40.8 , 2 , 1 , Western Michigan
51 , 39.8 , 41.2 , 2 , 1 , Indiana
52 , 39.7 , 46.6 , 1 , 2 , Akron
53 , 39.7 , 38.1 , 1 , 2 , Illinois
54 , 39.4 , 59.1 , 2 , 1 , Texas Tech
55 , 39.2 , 50.7 , 1 , 2 , Brigham Young
56 , 37.7 , 48.1 , 3 , 0 , Houston
57 , 37.6 , 36.0 , 2 , 1 , Arizona
58 , 37.6 , 33.4 , 1 , 1 , Arkansas St
59 , 37.2 , 58.1 , 0 , 3 , Vanderbilt
60 , 37.2 , 56.1 , 1 , 2 , Baylor
61 , 37.1 , 42.6 , 1 , 1 , Oregon St
62 , 36.1 , 39.7 , 3 , 0 , South Florida
63 , 35.8 , 51.5 , 3 , 0 , Wisconsin
64 , 34.6 , 27.9 , 1 , 2 , Marshall
65 , 34.3 , 23.9 , 1 , 2 , Fresno St
66 , 34.0 , 34.2 , 1 , 2 , Toledo
67 , 33.9 , 39.0 , 3 , 0 , Arizona St
68 , 33.3 , 45.9 , 1 , 2 , UNLV
69 , 32.9 , 7.5 , 1 , 1 , San Jose St
70 , 32.1 , 37.6 , 1 , 1 , Louisiana Tech
71 , 31.8 , 58.3 , 2 , 1 , Minnesota
72 , 31.8 , 47.6 , 1 , 2 , Northern Illinois
73 , 31.7 , 37.2 , 2 , 1 , Maryland
74 , 31.7 , 35.9 , 2 , 1 , Kansas
75 , 31.5 , 41.3 , 2 , 1 , New Mexico St
76 , 31.1 , 48.6 , 2 , 1 , Utah
77 , 30.7 , 28.7 , 1 , 2 , Idaho
78 , 30.6 , 34.9 , 2 , 1 , South Carolina
79 , 30.4 , 13.3 , 0 , 3 , Florida Atlantic
80 , 30.4 , 42.8 , 2 , 1 , Tulsa
81 , 30.0 , 44.9 , 1 , 2 , North Carolina St
82 , 29.8 , 41.3 , 1 , 2 , New Mexico
83 , 29.4 , 47.0 , 1 , 2 , Troy
84 , 29.4 , 25.6 , 1 , 2 , Alabama-Birmingham
85 , 28.0 , 35.5 , 1 , 2 , Virginia
86 , 27.6 , 35.1 , 3 , 0 , Purdue
87 , 27.1 , 40.1 , 1 , 2 , Cincinnati
88 , 26.6 , 35.9 , 2 , 1 , Kentucky
89 , 26.1 , 51.9 , 1 , 1 , UTEP
90 , 25.7 , 38.5 , 1 , 2 , Central Florida
91 , 25.3 , 47.4 , 1 , 2 , Wyoming
92 , 25.2 , 16.7 , 1 , 1 , Tulane
93 , 24.9 , 29.6 , 1 , 2 , Army
94 , 24.6 , 15.7 , 0 , 2 , Louisiana-Lafayette
95 , 24.3 , 33.2 , 2 , 1 , Bowling Green
96 , 22.0 , 17.1 , 1 , 2 , Nevada
97 , 21.1 , 15.3 , 2 , 1 , Colorado St
98 , 21.1 , 31.9 , 2 , 1 , Northwestern
99 , 20.9 , 37.7 , 1 , 2 , Miami FL
100 , 20.4 , 0.0 , 0 , 3 , Stanford
101 , 19.9 , 41.9 , 0 , 3 , Rice
102 , 19.3 , 33.5 , 1 , 2 , Ball St
103 , 19.3 , 30.2 , 1 , 2 , North Texas
104 , 18.5 , 26.9 , 1 , 2 , East Carolina
105 , 17.6 , 24.7 , 1 , 2 , Louisiana-Monroe
106 , 17.0 , 20.3 , 0 , 3 , Mississippi St
107 , 14.8 , 19.5 , 1 , 2 , Mississippi
108 , 14.7 , 27.3 , 2 , 1 , Middle Tennessee St
109 , 14.2 , 26.6 , 1 , 2 , Buffalo
110 , 12.6 , 25.4 , 1 , 2 , SMU
111 , 11.4 , 22.2 , 1 , 2 , Kent St
112 , 11.2 , 39.2 , 0 , 2 , San Diego St
113 , 10.6 , 15.9 , 0 , 3 , Utah St
114 , 7.9 , 17.5 , 0 , 3 , Eastern Michigan
115 , 6.4 , 20.7 , 0 , 3 , Temple
116 , 5.8 , 29.2 , 0 , 3 , Florida Int'l
117 , 3.0 , 17.8 , 1 , 2 , Memphis
118 , 2.2 , 6.9 , 0 , 3 , Colorado
119 , 0.0 , 18.4 , 0 , 3 , Miami OH

01 , 67.2 , 38.6 , 1 , 0 , Pennsylvania
02 , 62.4 , 50.8 , 2 , 0 , North Dakota St
03 , 56.1 , 53.0 , 2 , 0 , Richmond
04 , 54.6 , 40.2 , 1 , 0 , Columbia
05 , 52.7 , 46.3 , 1 , 0 , Harvard
06 , 51.9 , 34.0 , 3 , 0 , Towson
07 , 49.1 , 26.7 , 3 , 0 , Central Conn St
08 , 48.0 , 27.1 , 2 , 1 , Lafayette
09 , 47.8 , 39.2 , 2 , 1 , Northern Iowa
10 , 47.2 , 35.2 , 1 , 1 , Montana
11 , 45.7 , 40.1 , 2 , 1 , Illinois St
12 , 45.6 , 37.3 , 1 , 2 , Northeastern
13 , 44.5 , 36.9 , 2 , 1 , Youngstown St
14 , 43.3 , 12.4 , 3 , 0 , Charleston Southern
15 , 40.8 , 35.5 , 2 , 0 , Southern Illinois
16 , 40.8 , 10.7 , 3 , 0 , Monmouth NJ
17 , 40.5 , 32.4 , 3 , 0 , Cal Poly SLO
18 , 39.5 , 49.6 , 2 , 1 , Portland St
19 , 39.4 , 27.1 , 2 , 1 , Elon
20 , 37.2 , 26.9 , 1 , 0 , Brown
21 , 36.8 , 39.5 , 2 , 1 , UC-Davis
22 , 36.5 , 30.4 , 1 , 1 , Georgia Southern
23 , 36.0 , 37.4 , 2 , 1 , Furman
24 , 35.9 , 20.7 , 3 , 0 , Wagner
25 , 34.3 , 47.4 , 2 , 0 , New Hampshire
26 , 33.3 , 15.4 , 2 , 1 , Drake
27 , 33.1 , 19.7 , 2 , 1 , Samford
28 , 32.9 , 23.1 , 1 , 0 , Princeton
29 , 32.4 , 20.6 , 1 , 1 , Rhode Island
30 , 32.2 , 0.8 , 2 , 1 , Bucknell
31 , 31.3 , 25.9 , 1 , 2 , Holy Cross
32 , 31.0 , 5.3 , 1 , 2 , Fordham
33 , 30.7 , 16.9 , 2 , 0 , Norfolk St
34 , 29.3 , 39.3 , 1 , 1 , Jacksonville St
35 , 28.3 , 26.9 , 2 , 1 , Liberty
36 , 27.4 , -1.0 , 1 , 2 , Morgan St
37 , 27.4 , 40.1 , 2 , 1 , Appalachian St
38 , 26.4 , 18.8 , 1 , 1 , Maine
39 , 26.3 , -1.8 , 1 , 2 , Marist
40 , 26.2 , 16.3 , 2 , 1 , Albany NY
41 , 25.9 , 31.4 , 2 , 1 , Tennessee-Martin
42 , 25.8 , 16.0 , 2 , 1 , Texas Southern
43 , 23.6 , 28.9 , 2 , 1 , Southern U.
44 , 23.6 , 8.1 , 0 , 2 , The Citadel
45 , 23.6 , 23.9 , 0 , 2 , Sacramento St
46 , 23.6 , 32.8 , 1 , 1 , James Madison
47 , 23.4 , 5.2 , 1 , 2 , VMI
48 , 22.9 , 11.3 , 0 , 3 , South Dakota St
49 , 22.8 , 6.8 , 1 , 2 , Sacred Heart
50 , 22.0 , 30.1 , 2 , 1 , Massachusetts
51 , 21.7 , 22.0 , 2 , 0 , San Diego
52 , 21.6 , 19.5 , 1 , 2 , Coastal Carolina
53 , 21.4 , 23.0 , 2 , 1 , Prairie View A&M
54 , 21.3 , 11.2 , 0 , 3 , Eastern Washington
55 , 21.1 , 5.9 , 2 , 1 , Duquesne
56 , 21.0 , 15.6 , 1 , 2 , Eastern Illinois
57 , 20.9 , 22.7 , 1 , 2 , Idaho St
58 , 20.7 , 18.5 , 2 , 1 , Mississippi Valley St
59 , 20.7 , 18.6 , 1 , 2 , Missouri St
60 , 20.2 , 21.7 , 2 , 1 , Alabama A&M
61 , 19.7 , -10.8 , 2 , 0 , Dayton
62 , 19.4 , 16.4 , 1 , 2 , Northwestern St
63 , 19.1 , 29.9 , 1 , 2 , Nicholls St
64 , 18.5 , 8.6 , 1 , 1 , Hofstra
65 , 18.0 , 19.3 , 2 , 1 , Tennessee St
66 , 17.9 , 10.9 , 2 , 1 , SE Missouri St
67 , 17.0 , 7.3 , 1 , 2 , Weber St
68 , 16.5 , 4.6 , 1 , 2 , Northern Colorado
69 , 16.0 , 2.6 , 3 , 0 , St John's MN
70 , 15.6 , 10.1 , 2 , 1 , Delaware St
71 , 14.8 , 11.2 , 2 , 1 , Southern Utah
72 , 14.8 , 3.8 , 1 , 1 , McNeese St
73 , 14.5 , 18.4 , 1 , 1 , Delaware
74 , 13.7 , 17.3 , 1 , 2 , Lehigh
75 , 13.6 , -17.6 , 2 , 1 , Cornell IA
76 , 13.1 , 17.0 , 1 , 2 , SE Louisiana St
77 , 12.3 , 5.0 , 1 , 2 , Montana St
78 , 12.0 , 17.2 , 1 , 2 , Alabama St
79 , 12.0 , 4.3 , 0 , 3 , Iona
80 , 11.8 , 14.2 , 1 , 2 , Murray St
81 , 11.8 , 1.6 , 1 , 2 , Davidson
82 , 10.4 , 21.5 , 1 , 2 , Wofford
83 , 10.2 , 18.7 , 0 , 2 , William & Mary
84 , 10.0 , 17.4 , 3 , 0 , Hampton
85 , 9.7 , 29.2 , 2 , 1 , Bethune-Cookman
86 , 9.2 , 9.7 , 1 , 2 , Northern Arizona
87 , 8.8 , 4.9 , 2 , 0 , Western Carolina
88 , 8.4 , 14.2 , 2 , 1 , Western Illinois
89 , 6.7 , -6.6 , 1 , 2 , Austin Peay
90 , 6.5 , 10.3 , 1 , 2 , Western Kentucky
91 , 6.3 , 7.2 , 1 , 2 , Eastern Kentucky
92 , 6.2 , 4.8 , 0 , 3 , Stephen F. Austin
93 , 5.7 , 3.7 , 2 , 1 , Gardner-Webb
94 , 4.0 , -19.3 , 1 , 2 , St Francis PA
95 , 3.9 , 17.2 , 1 , 1 , Jackson St
96 , 2.5 , -0.9 , 1 , 2 , Texas St-San Marcos
97 , 2.3 , -11.4 , 0 , 3 , La Salle
98 , 2.1 , 18.2 , 0 , 3 , Grambling St
99 , 2.0 , 7.2 , 1 , 1 , Colgate
100 , 1.7 , 2.0 , 0 , 3 , Stony Brook
101 , 1.5 , 9.1 , 1 , 2 , Arkansas-Pine Bluff
102 , 0.9 , 16.1 , 0 , 3 , Villanova
103 , 0.6 , 9.5 , 1 , 1 , Sam Houston St
104 , 0.5 , -19.0 , 1 , 2 , Robert Morris
105 , -0.8 , -2.4 , 2 , 0 , Georgetown KY
106 , -1.1 , 0.5 , 0 , 3 , Indiana St
107 , -1.9 , -38.9 , 0 , 3 , St Peter's
108 , -2.1 , -8.4 , 1 , 2 , Florida A&M
109 , -3.0 , 13.6 , 1 , 2 , South Carolina St
110 , -5.5 , -19.0 , 2 , 1 , Valparaiso
111 , -8.0 , 5.0 , 1 , 2 , Chattanooga
112 , -10.9 , -8.2 , 0 , 2 , Alcorn St
113 , -12.9 , -24.8 , 0 , 2 , Jacksonville FL
114 , -17.2 , -19.9 , 0 , 2 , Howard
115 , -17.6 , -12.5 , 0 , 3 , Tennessee Tech
116 , -17.9 , -17.9 , 0 , 3 , Morehead St
117 , -18.1 , -15.6 , 0 , 1 , Dartmouth
118 , -18.7 , -43.1 , 1 , 2 , Butler
119 , -19.7 , -21.3 , 0 , 2 , Savannah St
120 , -23.4 , -29.5 , 0 , 2 , North Carolina A&T

 

[conehead433]

WVU should probably be higher. My team FSU at 46 could be about right if we can squeak by Rice this week. Everyone else is putting up about 36 points on them, so I figure with our anemic offense we might put up 18.

 

[nitsuj3580]

Syracuse at #20?

I'm a die hard Syracuse fan but how does that make any sense?

 

[TuxDave]

07 , 66.9 , 70.5 , 3 , 0 , Rutgers

:laugh: :thumbsup:

I know I know, it's an early ranking for your algorithm. I graduated from Rutgers and I'm just finding it funny to see them pop to the top.

 

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: nitsuj3580
Syracuse at #20?

I'm a die hard Syracuse fan but how does that make any sense?

It's a computer program...it isn't meant to.

 

[vi edit]

Wow. How did OSU and Auburn get ranked below Iowa? Iowa at #2? What the heck.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: conehead433
WVU should probably be higher. My team FSU at 46 could be about right if we can squeak by Rice this week. Everyone else is putting up about 36 points on them, so I figure with our anemic offense we might put up 18.

Well see what happens. I haven't seen WVU play yet, so I cannot comment.

Originally posted by: nitsuj3580
Syracuse at #20?

I'm a die hard Syracuse fan but how does that make any sense?

It is just the way the algorithm works. Syracuse must be below Iowa (#2) and Wake Forest (#4) but it also must be above Illinois (#53). So #20 is near the middle of those bounds. I suspect as the time goes on that Iowa, Wake Forest, and Illinois will all drop in the rankings. Thus Syracuse will similarly drop. As I don't use any bias from previous years, early on it assumes that Wake Forest and Illinois are as good as Ohio St.

Originally posted by: TuxDave
07 , 66.9 , 70.5 , 3 , 0 , Rutgers

:laugh: :thumbsup:

I know I know, it's an early ranking for your algorithm. I graduated from Rutgers and I'm just finding it funny to see them pop to the top.

Again, it is from giving all teams equal weight to begin with. It hasn't yet learned that UNC, Illinois, and Ohio are not exactly quality wins. It sees 3 wins for Rutgers and says it must be a good team because they are unbeaten. It will learn after a few more weeks and Rutgers will plummit.

 

[Phoenix86]

I thought last year was your last year.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Phoenix86
I thought last year was your last year.

Do I have to keep my words on those comments?

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: vi_edit
Wow. How did OSU and Auburn get ranked below Iowa? Iowa at #2? What the heck.

The Score Rating which I perfer puts OSU at #7, Auburn at #9, and Iowa at #21. ATOT just seems to hate it when top ranked teams have losses, thus they hate the score ranking. So, I post on ATOT sorted by Win Rating.

 

[Saulbadguy]

K-State #12!

 

[Alkaline5]

What about 0-3 Duke at #42?

 

[conehead433]

Originally posted by: Alkaline5
What about 0-3 Duke at #42?

Quality losses? LOL

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Alkaline5
What about 0-3 Duke at #42?

Here is the rough way it is calculated (not quite accurate, but close enough and simple enough to explain):

Richmond: Win rating of 56.1
W Forest: Win rating of 69.0
V Tech: Win rating of 70.0
Average opponent: 65.0

Average loss of 16.7 points.

65 - 16.7 - 6.0 (Three losses times ~2.0 this early on in the year) = 42.8.

The fact that few teams could do better than 42.8 isn't Dukes Fault. Duke tried hard to be ranked last, but other teams are doing worse than Duke. As W Forest and Richmond drop in rankings, Duke will fall too.

 

[tfinch2]

Duke is way better than Louisville and Texas

 

[snoopdoug1]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Phoenix86
I thought last year was your last year.

Do I have to keep my words on those comments?

No, i like seeing it

 

[Hammer]

texas at #49? i don't think so...

 

[kalster]

good to see sc #1 in score rating, how does your algorithm calculate score rating. also does your program weigh home and way wins seperately and does it take into account wins against 1AA teams

 

[NeoV]

you shouldn't even bother posting this until like week 6, these rankings are just plain silly.

What has Iowa done to get a ranking that high? They barely beat an awful Syracuse team, and didn't exactly dominate an average Iowa St team - so what gives?

Michigan beating ND was that much better in your formula that Ohio St beating Texas?

EDIT - just read that it is stricly going by teams that are 3-0 and those teams will have higher rankings - again, why bother?

 

[MikeyIs4Dcats]

Originally posted by: Saulbadguy
K-State #12!

woot!

 

[MikeyIs4Dcats]

Originally posted by: tfinch2
Duke is way better than Louisville and Texas

that right there is funny, I don't care who you are

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: NeoV
again, why bother?

1) I've gotten a few people requesting it.
2) To show people that it doesn't start out with all good teams at the top and all bad teams at the bottom. That is, it isn't biased by last year's performance at all.
3) I like these threads.
4) Overall it shows teams with mostly losses at the bottom and teams with mostly wins at the top. So it isn't too far off from where it needs to be, even this early.
5) Sure, some teams will move drastically from now on. But the majority will be approximately at this location at the end of the last week of games. It gives a fairly accurate representation of most teams. True, it is impossible to tell at this point which teams are accurate and which aren't.

 

[Feldenak]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: NeoV
again, why bother?

1) I've gotten a few people requesting it.
2) To show people that it doesn't start out with all good teams at the top and all bad teams at the bottom. That is, it isn't biased by last year's performance at all.
3) I like these threads.
4) Overall it shows teams with mostly losses at the bottom and teams with mostly wins at the top. So it isn't too far off from where it needs to be, even this early.
5) Sure, some teams will move drastically from now on. But the majority will be approximately at this location at the end of the last week of games. It gives a fairly accurate representation of most teams. True, it is impossible to tell at this point which teams are accurate and which aren't.

That 7-3 score in the Auburn/LSU game tanked both teams Win Rating, didn't it?

 

[sash1]

04 , 69.0 , 57.9 , 3 , 0 , Wake Forest

w00t!

 

[b0mbrman]

Forgive me if it seems obvious to everyone else, but what are your algorithms?