Dullard's College Football - week 16

[dullard]

Here is the last regular season installment of my ratings. Sorry again about being delayed a few days. I will point out that these (and all other computer score predictions) are generally useless for bowl game predictions. Teams have 3-6 weeks to prepare for one game - often against defences or offences that they haven't seen in decades. Looks like my computer wants an Oklahoma/USC game.

WinPlace / WinRating ( ScorePlace / ScoreRating ) Team name
1 / 50.1 ( 2 / 57.6 ) Southern California
2 / 49.0 ( 1 / 58.6 ) Oklahoma
3 / 47.9 ( 3 / 57.1 ) LSU
4 / 45.2 ( 5 / 52.6 ) Michigan
5 / 44.5 ( 6 / 52.2 ) Florida St.
6 / 43.7 ( 4 / 53.2 ) Kansas St.
7 / 43.5 ( 12 / 46.6 ) Ohio St.
8 / 43.4 ( 8 / 50.1 ) Georgia
9 / 43.4 ( 7 / 51.4 ) Texas
10 / 43.0 ( 9 / 49.1 ) Miami Ohio
11 / 42.8 ( 10 / 48.7 ) Miami Florida
12 / 41.7 ( 14 / 46.1 ) Tennessee
13 / 41.6 ( 11 / 46.9 ) Iowa
14 / 40.4 ( 16 / 44.4 ) Purdue
15 / 40.4 ( 15 / 45.6 ) Boise St.
16 / 40.3 ( 22 / 43.4 ) Utah
17 / 40.3 ( 18 / 44.2 ) Washington St.
18 / 38.9 ( 19 / 44.2 ) Nebraska
19 / 38.4 ( 20 / 43.7 ) Maryland
20 / 38.3 ( 13 / 46.2 ) Minnesota
21 / 37.5 ( 24 / 42.7 ) Oklahoma St.
22 / 37.0 ( 21 / 43.4 ) Mississippi
23 / 37.0 ( 23 / 43.3 ) Florida
24 / 37.0 ( 17 / 44.2 ) Arkansas
25 / 36.3 ( 27 / 41.5 ) Michigan St.
26 / 35.8 ( 26 / 41.6 ) Clemson
27 / 35.6 ( 30 / 40.6 ) West Virginia
28 / 35.5 ( 43 / 35.9 ) TCU
29 / 35.1 ( 25 / 42.5 ) Virginia Tech
30 / 34.8 ( 42 / 36.0 ) Oregon
31 / 34.6 ( 33 / 39.8 ) Wisconsin
32 / 34.2 ( 36 / 38.4 ) Pittsburgh
33 / 34.1 ( 45 / 35.4 ) Southern Miss
34 / 34.0 ( 41 / 36.1 ) Bowling Green
35 / 33.8 ( 35 / 38.9 ) New Mexico
36 / 33.7 ( 34 / 39.3 ) North Carolina St.
37 / 33.6 ( 29 / 40.7 ) California
38 / 33.6 ( 31 / 40.3 ) Virginia
39 / 33.2 ( 32 / 39.8 ) Missouri
40 / 33.0 ( 28 / 40.7 ) Auburn
41 / 32.9 ( 37 / 38.3 ) Texas Tech
42 / 32.7 ( 39 / 37.7 ) Colorado St.
43 / 32.6 ( 40 / 36.3 ) Connecticut
44 / 32.1 ( 46 / 34.6 ) Northern Illinois
45 / 32.0 ( 38 / 37.9 ) Oregon St.
46 / 31.5 ( 49 / 33.3 ) Louisville
47 / 31.1 ( 44 / 35.5 ) Boston College
48 / 30.4 ( 47 / 34.6 ) Air Force
49 / 30.1 ( 53 / 32.8 ) Marshall
50 / 29.4 ( 58 / 31.7 ) North Texas
51 / 29.3 ( 51 / 33.2 ) Georgia Tech
52 / 28.9 ( 55 / 32.8 ) Washington
53 / 28.8 ( 63 / 30.7 ) Northwestern
54 / 28.8 ( 48 / 33.3 ) Memphis
55 / 28.8 ( 60 / 31.4 ) Notre Dame
56 / 28.4 ( 62 / 30.8 ) Toledo
57 / 28.2 ( 61 / 31.0 ) UCLA
58 / 28.1 ( 66 / 30.3 ) Tulsa
59 / 28.0 ( 52 / 33.0 ) Navy
60 / 27.8 ( 50 / 33.3 ) Syracuse
61 / 27.5 ( 59 / 31.5 ) Kansas
62 / 27.4 ( 65 / 30.5 ) UNLV
63 / 27.4 ( 56 / 32.6 ) South Carolina
64 / 27.2 ( 67 / 29.7 ) Hawaii
65 / 26.9 ( 57 / 32.2 ) Wake Forest
66 / 26.7 ( 64 / 30.6 ) Colorado
67 / 26.3 ( 72 / 27.7 ) Fresno St.
68 / 25.8 ( 68 / 29.1 ) San Diego St.
69 / 25.3 ( 54 / 32.8 ) Alabama
70 / 24.8 ( 75 / 25.3 ) Houston
71 / 24.7 ( 70 / 28.2 ) Arizona St.
72 / 23.6 ( 71 / 27.8 ) Rutgers
73 / 23.5 ( 79 / 24.2 ) Stanford
74 / 23.5 ( 77 / 24.7 ) South Florida
75 / 22.8 ( 74 / 25.4 ) Brigham Young
76 / 22.4 ( 76 / 25.2 ) Akron
77 / 22.0 ( 80 / 23.3 ) Texas A&M
78 / 22.0 ( 69 / 28.4 ) Penn St.
79 / 21.9 ( 81 / 22.6 ) Nevada
80 / 20.8 ( 85 / 21.9 ) Louisiana Tech
81 / 20.7 ( 86 / 21.5 ) UAB
82 / 20.6 ( 78 / 24.3 ) Wyoming
83 / 20.2 ( 83 / 22.3 ) Duke
84 / 20.1 ( 73 / 26.8 ) Kentucky
85 / 19.7 ( 82 / 22.6 ) Cincinnati
86 / 19.5 ( 89 / 19.5 ) Troy St.
87 / 19.5 ( 87 / 21.1 ) Rice
88 / 19.0 ( 84 / 22.1 ) Western Michigan
89 / 17.9 ( 93 / 18.0 ) Tulane
90 / 17.3 ( 90 / 18.9 ) Kent St.
91 / 16.2 ( 94 / 16.7 ) Arizona
92 / 15.7 ( 88 / 19.9 ) North Carolina
93 / 15.3 ( 98 / 15.5 ) Ball St.
94 / 15.1 ( 92 / 18.7 ) Middle Tennessee
95 / 15.0 ( 102 / 14.6 ) Baylor
96 / 14.8 ( 99 / 15.4 ) Iowa St.
97 / 14.5 ( 97 / 15.8 ) San Jose St.
98 / 14.0 ( 91 / 18.7 ) Vanderbilt
99 / 13.7 ( 105 / 13.9 ) Mississippi St.
100 / 13.3 ( 96 / 16.2 ) Illinois
101 / 13.2 ( 106 / 13.8 ) Louisiana-Lafayette
102 / 12.8 ( 101 / 14.8 ) Indiana
103 / 12.4 ( 95 / 16.3 ) Utah St.
104 / 10.9 ( 109 / 9.8 ) Arkansas St.
105 / 10.9 ( 103 / 14.5 ) Idaho
106 / 10.4 ( 104 / 14.4 ) New Mexico St.
107 / 10.2 ( 100 / 15.2 ) Temple
108 / 9.5 ( 108 / 10.6 ) UCF
109 / 8.5 ( 111 / 7.8 ) Eastern Michigan
110 / 8.2 ( 110 / 9.3 ) Central Michigan
111 / 8.0 ( 107 / 11.6 ) Ohio
112 / 6.0 ( 112 / 7.5 ) East Carolina
113 / 5.6 ( 114 / 5.5 ) Buffalo
114 / 4.0 ( 113 / 5.7 ) Louisiana Monroe
115 / 3.8 ( 116 / 2.1 ) UTEP
116 / 3.3 ( 115 / 3.8 ) SMU
117 / 0.0 ( 117 / 0.0 ) Army

 

[Alkaline5]

*Must resist urge to discuss BCS controversy...*

It's good to finally see Tennessee out the top 10 in someone's ratings. The Vols are good, but IMO they're the most over-rated team in the top 10. Sure they beat Florida and Miami, but they struggled with the rest of their mediocre schedule terribly. I guess the non-BCS bowls felt the same way since they're on their way to the Peach Bowl.

 

[royaldank]

Originally posted by: Alkaline5
*Must resist urge to discuss BCS controversy...*

It's good to finally see Tennessee out the top 10 in someone's ratings. The Vols are good, but IMO they're the most over-rated team in the top 10. Sure they beat Florida and Miami, but they struggled with the rest of their mediocre schedule terribly. I guess the non-BCS bowls felt the same way since they're on their way to the Peach Bowl.

I'm not arguing, but how does UT end up a spot behind a team they beat?

 

[TC2181]

Originally posted by: dullard
I will point out that these (and all other computer score predictions) are generally useless for bowl game predictions. Teams have 3-6 weeks to prepare for one game - often against defences or offences that they haven't seen in decades.

This is not the case in the K-State - Ohio State game...as OSU lacks this "offense" we speak of.

 

[royaldank]

I like your poll, but I think timing of losses might be making too big of a factor. Also, how do you start the teams off? Do you use an initial ranking of the teams? I feel that might have an adverse effect on things.

Let's assume you move the USC-Cal loss to the last game of the season, they wouldn't be ranked #1 by a long shot. I think this is where the BCS actually excels...comparing the entire season without regard to when losses occur. This is the biggest problem with the human polls and also the most difficult thing for people to understand.

 

[LikeLinus]

Originally posted by: Alkaline5
*Must resist urge to discuss BCS controversy...*

It's good to finally see Tennessee out the top 10 in someone's ratings. The Vols are good, but IMO they're the most over-rated team in the top 10. Sure they beat Florida and Miami, but they struggled with the rest of their mediocre schedule terribly. I guess the non-BCS bowls felt the same way since they're on their way to the Peach Bowl.

TN ended up ranked 6/7 in the polls. A win is a win regardless of the size of the win.

Also the bolded quote makes no sense.

The BCS bowl games are predetermained based on conference winners and the top two teams playing for the NC. TN didn't get a chance to play because of their loss to Georgia (a top 5 team at the time). So how does the non-BCS bowls "feeling" have anything to do with where they ended up.

Last I saw the Peach Bowl was on Jan 2nd (Same day as the BCS Fiesta Bowl). They'll be paid nicely and it's a prime tv spot to be in.

 

[Alkaline5]

Originally posted by: LikeLinus
TN ended up ranked 6/7 in the polls. A win is a win regardless of the size of the win.

Also the bolded quote makes no sense.

The BCS bowl games are predetermained based on conference winners and the top two teams playing for the NC. TN didn't get a chance to play because of their loss to Georgia (a top 5 team at the time). So how does the non-BCS bowls "feeling" have anything to do with where they ended up.

Last I saw the Peach Bowl was on Jan 2nd (Same day as the BCS Fiesta Bowl). They'll be paid nicely and it's a prime tv spot to be in.

IIRC, bowl selection priority for SEC teams goes: CapitalOne (Citrus), Cotton, Outback, Peach, Independece, Music City, and Houston. Based on the BCS rankings, they should have gone to the CapitalOne Bowl, or at worst the Outback. My statement reflects the fact that they were not chosen by any of the top 3 non-BCS bowls w/SEC ties.

I'm sure they'll still appreciate the payout and TV exposure, but playing unranked Clemson in the Peach Bowl would not be my idea of a great consolation prize.

Edit: oops, added the Houston Bowl to the list.

 

[Mookow]

Originally posted by: TC2181

Originally posted by: dullard
I will point out that these (and all other computer score predictions) are generally useless for bowl game predictions. Teams have 3-6 weeks to prepare for one game - often against defences or offences that they haven't seen in decades.

This is not the case in the K-State - Ohio State game...as OSU lacks this "offense" we speak of.

Ohio State has a very potent offense if you look at points scored compared to other teams in the same situations. Of course, everyone calls this offensive squad that OSU uses the "defense", but...

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: royaldank
I like your poll, but I think timing of losses might be making too big of a factor. Also, how do you start the teams off? Do you use an initial ranking of the teams? I feel that might have an adverse effect on things.

Let's assume you move the USC-Cal loss to the last game of the season, they wouldn't be ranked #1 by a long shot. I think this is where the BCS actually excels...comparing the entire season without regard to when losses occur. This is the biggest problem with the human polls and also the most difficult thing for people to understand.

Timing (ie order of losses) has no effect in my poll. You could shuffle the weeks around all you want, and nothing would change. I suppose I could make timing an issue pretty easilly if I wanted to though. Maybe I'll add that feature during the off season.

When I first created the program years ago, I assumed the initial rankings might play an adverse effect. However I quickly realized that in my program, the initial rankings are meaningless after about 4 weeks of data. I currently start all 1A teams equal, all 1AA teams equal (but about 40 points lower), and all II teams equal (again about another 40 points lower). But I've tried messing with the order - like placing the #1 team with a really bad start rating, and the last place team with a really high rating. Net result - the computer takes a lot longer to do the calculation, but ends up with the exact same ratings in the end. Of course now I could show with lots of math that the inital rankings have no effect.

 

[sparkyclarky]

I came to this thread thinking it was some sort of Strongbad reference

 

[royaldank]

Timing (ie order of losses) has no effect in my poll. You could shuffle the weeks around all you want, and nothing would change. I suppose I could make timing an issue pretty easilly if I wanted to though. Maybe I'll add that feature during the off season.

When I first created the program years ago, I assumed the initial rankings might play an adverse effect. However I quickly realized that in my program, the initial rankings are meaningless after about 4 weeks of data. I currently start all 1A teams equal, all 1AA teams equal (but about 40 points lower), and all II teams equal (again about another 40 points lower). But I've tried messing with the order - like placing the #1 team with a really bad start rating, and the last place team with a really high rating. Net result - the computer takes a lot longer to do the calculation, but ends up with the exact same ratings in the end. Of course now I could show with lots of math that the inital rankings have no effect.

If that is the case, then I'm just wondering how USC ended up first, and why they are 2.3 points better than LSU. Got any idea what is seperating the top 3 teams? Just looking at strength of schedule, it seems that LSU and OU had tougher schedules. The reason I say that is because LSU beat Georgia twice, a top 10 team. OU also won 2 games against top 10 opponents. Looking at the losses by the teams, USC lost to clearly the worst team.

Once again, I'm not getting worked up or pulling for a certain team. I know you've been doing this awhile and I'm interested in how you figure things. Out of the 7 computers in the BCS, only 1 had them in first.

Cool man. Thanks for sharing.

 

[royaldank]

Another idea. Not sure you can do this easily, but any way to put all three losses as the first three games of the season? If you did that, you could get a better picture of where the teams fall into place week by week and which game (or week) determined to be the difference.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: royaldank
If that is the case, then I'm just wondering how USC ended up first, and why they are 2.3 points better than LSU. Got any idea what is seperating the top 3 teams? Just looking at strength of schedule, it seems that LSU and OU had tougher schedules. The reason I say that is because LSU beat Georgia twice, a top 10 team. OU also won 2 games against top 10 opponents. Looking at the losses by the teams, USC lost to clearly the worst team.

In recent weeks, USC and LSU had been pulling closer and closer to Oklahoma. This is due in part to USCs and LSUs dominance over fairly good teams at the end of their season - and due to Oklahoma's opponents losing repeatedly. For example:

Texas Tech: lost last 2 games
Baylor: lost last 7 games
Texas A&M: lost last 3 games, and lost 8 of of their last 10 games
Colorado: lost last game, and lost 7 of the last 10
Missouri: all 4 of its losses were in the 2nd half of the season
Iowa State: lost all of its last 10 games
UCLA: lost last 4 games
Alabama: lost last 3 games, and 8 of its last 10 games
(I left out the few opponents that won at the end of the season, but the number of losing teams far outweigh the number of winning opponents - as do the number of losses vs number of wins.)

Note: the BCS SOS didn't pick up on these losses! Oklahoma had a SOS of 11 in week 7, AND in the final week. The BCS SOS formula is utter crap in my opinion. Sagarin for example has Oklahoma's SOS at #27. My computer is similar (not shown above). I don't want to digress into the SOS formula problems though.

If your opponents keep losing, then you obviously aren't as good as we thought. Oklahoma's opponents looked good at the time Oklahoma played them (ie they won most of their first few games of the season) but then they lost much of the rest of the season. Sure at the beginning of the season, where Oklahoma's opponents had won all of their games, Oklahoma dominated my program, as well as all other programs. But since all games are counted equally, these losses really hurt Oklahoma in the last few weeks of the programs. Sure Oklahoma kept winning, and winning big - it isn't Oklahoma's fault that they lost tons of SOS points in the last few weeks in my computer.

So at the end, USC just barely surpassed Oklahoma in one version of my program. Just barely since it predicts USC to win over Oklahoma by less than one point. In my favorite version (the best score predictor), Oklahoma is still ahead of USC. Also in that score predictor it has USC ahead of LSU by 0.5 points. Obviously fractions of a point are impossible in college football - so these teams are tied for 2nd in my opinion.

In my program, score is important. Oklahoma lost to a good team (#6 in my program), but lost bigtime. LSU lost to a fairly good team (#23) but lost easilly. USC lost to the worst team (#37) but lost in the 3rd overtime. Many people don't realize how good California is - Sagarin's most accurate rating (in blue) lists California as a #29 team. Cal is tied for #3 in the Pac-10. It isn't like USC lost to Army. Cal lost 3 of its games by 4 or less points. So if the ball bounced the other way a few times, Cal could easilly be 10 W, 3 L.

Plus you have to look at the whole season. LSU had a tough SOS at the end, but their first 2/3rds of their schedule was a cakewalk. Many SOS measurements has LSU SOS far behind USC (take Sagarin for example: LSU SOS is #42 and USC is #33).

 

[Mill]

16-7 is easily losing?

 

[Supermercado]

Originally posted by: Alkaline5
I'm sure they'll still appreciate the payout and TV exposure, but playing unranked Clemson in the Peach Bowl would not be my idea of a great consolation prize.

If they're looking at it like that, then they're going to get beat. We've got one of the hottest teams around right now. If UT comes to Atlanta thinking that the Peach Bowl is going to be a walk in the park, they're going to get punched in the mouth before they know it. At least, I hope so

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Millennium
16-7 is easily losing?

One team scored 4 times, the other only scored once. Florida had more points, more yards, and more first downs. It was nearly a shutout (LSU's only score was a punt return for 80 yards). So yes that was a fairly big win. Not a blowout - but a big win. LSU could have scored 3 more times and still not be in the lead. But LSU didn't even get close enough once in the whole game for even one field goal. Twice they got as close as the Florida 40 yard line, and once as far as the Florida 30 yard line. Not a single play in the red zone.

Oh and by the way, it was 19-7.

 

[fjorner]

Originally posted by: dullard


WinPlace / WinRating ( ScorePlace / ScoreRating ) Team name
1 / 50.1 ( 2 / 57.6 ) Southern California
2 / 49.0 ( 1 / 58.6 ) Oklahoma
3 / 47.9 ( 3 / 57.1 ) LSU

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Codewiz]

Originally posted by: SuperCommando

Originally posted by: Alkaline5
I'm sure they'll still appreciate the payout and TV exposure, but playing unranked Clemson in the Peach Bowl would not be my idea of a great consolation prize.

If they're looking at it like that, then they're going to get beat. We've got one of the hottest teams around right now. If UT comes to Atlanta thinking that the Peach Bowl is going to be a walk in the park, they're going to get punched in the mouth before they know it. At least, I hope so

They will get kicked in the mouth just like they did last year against Maryland......

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Millennium
16-7 is easily losing?

One team scored 4 times, the other only scored once. Florida had more points, more yards, and more first downs. It was nearly a shutout (LSU's only score was a punt return for 80 yards). So yes that was a fairly big win. Not a blowout - but a big win. LSU could have scored 3 more times and still not be in the lead. But LSU didn't even get close enough once in the whole game for even one field goal. Twice they got as close as the Florida 40 yard line, and once as far as the Florida 30 yard line. Not a single play in the red zone.

Oh and by the way, it was 19-7.

Yeah, I was thinking of another game that was 16-7, but you are still wrong. It wasn't that far about when you look at the raw numbers. It was simply a game in which penalities killed LSU and their rate of third down conversion was way less than Florida's. The massive number of penalities and the inability to convert on 3rd(due to penalities as well) was what led to their loss. CAL had 4 turnovers....

TOTAL FIRST DOWNS 18 14
Passing 10 6
Rushing 4 6
Penalty 4 2
3rd-Down Efficiency 7-18 3-12
4th-Down Efficiency 0-0 1-2

TOTAL NET YARDS 310 287
Total plays 76 60
Average gain 4.1 4.8

NET YARDS RUSHING 81 56
Rushes 40 24
Average per rush 2.0 2.3

NET YARDS PASSING 229 231
Completion-attempted 18-30 19-33
Yards per pass 6.4 6.4
Sacked-yards lost 6-56 3-18
Had intercepted 0 2

PUNTS-AVERAGE 7-50.7 8-48.5

RETURN YARDAGE 88 123
Punts-yards 3-43 4-123
Kickoffs-yards 0-0 2-36
Interceptions-yards 2-45 0-0

PENALTIES-YARDS 5-41 13-99
FUMBLES-LOST 2-1 2-1
TIME OF POSSESSION 30:20 29:40


Not sure if you are a USC fan or if you hate LSU, but CAL clearly dominated USC on yardage. WAY WAY WAY more dominate that Florida had over LSU if you look at the raw stats. Plus, the penalty yards was way more even than Florida vs LSU. Finally, the turnover ratio was closer in the CAL game, but both teams made a lot of mistakes. Florida played a pretty much flawless game minus ONE fumble.

USC California
TOTAL FIRST DOWNS 18 24
Passing 13 16
Rushing 5 7
Penalty 0 1
3rd-Down Efficiency 3-12 11-18
4th-Down Efficiency 1-1 0-0

TOTAL NET YARDS 376 469
Total plays 63 87
Average gain 6.0 5.4

NET YARDS RUSHING 99 143
Rushes 24 48
Average per rush 4.1 3.0

NET YARDS PASSING 277 326
Completion-attempted 21-39 27-37
Yards per pass 7.1 8.4
Sacked-yards lost 0-0 2-11
Had intercepted 3 2

PUNTS-AVERAGE 5-40.4 3-37.7

RETURN YARDAGE 31 51
Punts-yards 1-5 4-36
Kickoffs-yards 3-51 4-72
Interceptions-yards 2-26 3-15

PENALTIES-YARDS 8-73 7-60
FUMBLES-LOST 1-1 2-2
TIME OF POSSESSION 21:34 38:26

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Millennium
Not sure if you are a USC fan or if you hate LSU, but CAL clearly dominated USC on yardage. WAY WAY WAY more dominate that Florida had over LSU if you look at the raw stats. Plus, the penalty yards was way more even than Florida vs LSU. Finally, the turnover ratio was closer in the CAL game, but both teams made a lot of mistakes. Florida played a pretty much flawless game minus ONE fumble.

I'm best described as an anti-Big12 fan. I'd love to see USC and LSU play in the national championship game. Any team which loses by ~30 points, and cannot win their conference championship, doesn't deserve to play in the national championship game. 2001 and Nebraksa anyone?

To me what is important is scoring. If you can't score, then the other numbers really don't matter. That is why I think the LSU/Florida game shows bad performance on LSU's part (and good performance on Florida's part). Unless you are telling me that the LSU penalties were all ref errors, then it is LSU's fault that they got so many penalties. Is that what you want to argue? I won't get into that argument since I don't have a good recollection of how accurate the refs were that day.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Millennium
Not sure if you are a USC fan or if you hate LSU, but CAL clearly dominated USC on yardage. WAY WAY WAY more dominate that Florida had over LSU if you look at the raw stats. Plus, the penalty yards was way more even than Florida vs LSU. Finally, the turnover ratio was closer in the CAL game, but both teams made a lot of mistakes. Florida played a pretty much flawless game minus ONE fumble.

I'm best described as an anti-Big12 fan. I'd love to see USC and LSU play in the national championship game. Any team which loses by ~30 points, and cannot win their conference championship, doesn't deserve to play in the national championship game. 2001 and Nebraksa anyone?

To me what is important is scoring. If you can't score, then the other numbers really don't matter. That is why I think the LSU/Florida game shows bad performance on LSU's part (and good performance on Florida's part). Unless you are telling me that the LSU penalties were all ref errors, then it is LSU's fault that they got so many penalties. Is that what you want to argue? I won't get into that argument since I don't have a good recollection of how accurate the refs were that day.

No, I don't think it was ref errors that day. I'm just saying that USC executed very well and that CAL didn't, yet USC was unable to beat them. Contrast that to LSU that had a subpar day and Florida that played a flawless game. I don't think there is anyone that thinks Florida could beat LSU again.

The Conference Championship argument is tired and worn out, because most conferences don't even have a title game. How often are there ties in the Conference and the higher BCS team goes to the bowl? Almost every year that happened in the Big East, Big 10, or ACC.

I think USC is incredibly overrated, considering they have beaten one top 25 team and LSU beat 5 or 6.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: Millennium

No, I don't think it was ref errors that day. I'm just saying that USC executed very well and that CAL didn't, yet USC was unable to beat them. Contrast that to LSU that had a subpar day and Florida that played a flawless game. I don't think there is anyone that thinks Florida could beat LSU again.

So if each team played 10 times, how many times would you say that Oklahoma would beat K State? LSU FL? USC CAL?

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz

Originally posted by: Millennium

No, I don't think it was ref errors that day. I'm just saying that USC executed very well and that CAL didn't, yet USC was unable to beat them. Contrast that to LSU that had a subpar day and Florida that played a flawless game. I don't think there is anyone that thinks Florida could beat LSU again.

So if each team played 10 times, how many times would you say that Oklahoma would beat K State? LSU FL? USC CAL?

How could I accurately predict that? All I know is that LSU would beat Florida if they played again, and I hate LSU.

 

[kalster]

dullard,
is there a way to know the out of conference SOS at the begining of the season?

i am just wondering how USC's out of conference schedule compares to
OU's at the beggining of the season

LSU's is pretty week i know (including a non Div 1 team) but what about OU's?

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: kalster
dullard,
is there a way to know the out of conference SOS at the begining of the season?

i am just wondering how USC's out of conference schedule compares to
OU's at the beggining of the season

LSU's is pretty week i know (including a non Div 1 team) but what about OU's?

The easiest way of doing that is to look at my ratings, and take the average rating of the teams they played. Since there are only a couple of out of conference games, that shouldn't take you more than a couple minutes to do.