Dullard's College Football - Week 15

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: Alkaline5

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
i've said it several places, but i would LOVE to see UGA beat LSU (very possible) and Oregon state to beat USC (not as likely) because of what it would do to the BCS.

Could you imagine the outcome?? i guess Michican would probably get the #2 spot, but WOW, the confusion would be amazing.

with 2 losses, (one to cal and one to Oregon state) USC should be pretty much out of the picture.

LSU , UGA , Michigan , OSU and Texas where would you rank them??

IMO in that scenario Michigan would go to the Sugar Bowl. UGA, Texas, and OSU are neck-and-neck right now which means that UGA would probably move into third behind Michigan with LSU falling a to 6.

USC isn't going to lose to the Beavers, though. They know what's on the line this Saturday.

True that....USC has to win so they can get their ass kicking from OU in the Sugar Bowl.

spoilsports, everyone knows what will happen if USC wins, it's much more fun to speculate what would happen should USC lose and UGA win.

Doesn't matter..

OU > the other 116 Division 1 teams

Just like last year when it was:

Miami > the other 116 Division 1 teams.

 

[przero]

Does the Pac-10 have any other winning teams in it?

 

[shiner]

Originally posted by: mpitts

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: Alkaline5

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
i've said it several places, but i would LOVE to see UGA beat LSU (very possible) and Oregon state to beat USC (not as likely) because of what it would do to the BCS.

Could you imagine the outcome?? i guess Michican would probably get the #2 spot, but WOW, the confusion would be amazing.

with 2 losses, (one to cal and one to Oregon state) USC should be pretty much out of the picture.

LSU , UGA , Michigan , OSU and Texas where would you rank them??

IMO in that scenario Michigan would go to the Sugar Bowl. UGA, Texas, and OSU are neck-and-neck right now which means that UGA would probably move into third behind Michigan with LSU falling a to 6.

USC isn't going to lose to the Beavers, though. They know what's on the line this Saturday.

True that....USC has to win so they can get their ass kicking from OU in the Sugar Bowl.

spoilsports, everyone knows what will happen if USC wins, it's much more fun to speculate what would happen should USC lose and UGA win.

Doesn't matter..

OU > the other 116 Division 1 teams

Just like last year when it was:

Miami > the other 116 Division 1 teams.

No..Miami had several close calls last year......except for the beginning of the year at Alabama when OU wasn't rolling yet nobody has come close to them...

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: mpitts

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: Alkaline5

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
i've said it several places, but i would LOVE to see UGA beat LSU (very possible) and Oregon state to beat USC (not as likely) because of what it would do to the BCS.

Could you imagine the outcome?? i guess Michican would probably get the #2 spot, but WOW, the confusion would be amazing.

with 2 losses, (one to cal and one to Oregon state) USC should be pretty much out of the picture.

LSU , UGA , Michigan , OSU and Texas where would you rank them??

IMO in that scenario Michigan would go to the Sugar Bowl. UGA, Texas, and OSU are neck-and-neck right now which means that UGA would probably move into third behind Michigan with LSU falling a to 6.

USC isn't going to lose to the Beavers, though. They know what's on the line this Saturday.

True that....USC has to win so they can get their ass kicking from OU in the Sugar Bowl.

spoilsports, everyone knows what will happen if USC wins, it's much more fun to speculate what would happen should USC lose and UGA win.

Doesn't matter..

OU > the other 116 Division 1 teams

Just like last year when it was:

Miami > the other 116 Division 1 teams.

No..Miami had several close calls last year......except for the beginning of the year at Alabama when OU wasn't rolling yet nobody has come close to them...

But you would admit that Miami was the prohibitive favorite from the beginning of the year to win it all, and a HUGE favorite to beat Ohio State last year, right?

I understand what you are saying, but I also understand that teams like USC lose to teams like Cal in college football all the time.

I like OU's chances, but until they win the Big 12 title game and the Sugar Bowl, they haven't won anything.

 

[kalster]

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: Alkaline5

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
i've said it several places, but i would LOVE to see UGA beat LSU (very possible) and Oregon state to beat USC (not as likely) because of what it would do to the BCS.

Could you imagine the outcome?? i guess Michican would probably get the #2 spot, but WOW, the confusion would be amazing.

with 2 losses, (one to cal and one to Oregon state) USC should be pretty much out of the picture.

LSU , UGA , Michigan , OSU and Texas where would you rank them??

IMO in that scenario Michigan would go to the Sugar Bowl. UGA, Texas, and OSU are neck-and-neck right now which means that UGA would probably move into third behind Michigan with LSU falling a to 6.

USC isn't going to lose to the Beavers, though. They know what's on the line this Saturday.

True that....USC has to win so they can get their ass kicking from OU in the Sugar Bowl.

spoilsports, everyone knows what will happen if USC wins, it's much more fun to speculate what would happen should USC lose and UGA win.

Doesn't matter..

OU > the other 116 Division 1 teams

man u guys are all counting out trojans 🙁

well we'll see,we need win this weekend first and take it from there


OU is a very good team but Trojans are no 2 for a good reason tooo

ne way go TROJANS

 

[kalster]

Originally posted by: przero
Does the Pac-10 have any other winning teams in it?

oregon , oregon state, washington state , cal, washington too i think

with winning teams you mean winning record i assume

but overall PAC-10 has been weak this year, last year atleast WSU and USC both ended up strong and both got BCS bowls , this year only 1

 

[PlatinumGold]

Originally posted by: kalster

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: Alkaline5

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
i've said it several places, but i would LOVE to see UGA beat LSU (very possible) and Oregon state to beat USC (not as likely) because of what it would do to the BCS.

Could you imagine the outcome?? i guess Michican would probably get the #2 spot, but WOW, the confusion would be amazing.

with 2 losses, (one to cal and one to Oregon state) USC should be pretty much out of the picture.

LSU , UGA , Michigan , OSU and Texas where would you rank them??

IMO in that scenario Michigan would go to the Sugar Bowl. UGA, Texas, and OSU are neck-and-neck right now which means that UGA would probably move into third behind Michigan with LSU falling a to 6.

USC isn't going to lose to the Beavers, though. They know what's on the line this Saturday.

True that....USC has to win so they can get their ass kicking from OU in the Sugar Bowl.

spoilsports, everyone knows what will happen if USC wins, it's much more fun to speculate what would happen should USC lose and UGA win.

Doesn't matter..

OU > the other 116 Division 1 teams

man u guys are all counting out trojans 🙁

well we'll see,we need win this weekend first and take it from there


OU is a very good team but Trojans are no 2 for a good reason tooo

ne way go TROJANS

i think people are legitimately skeptical of USC. the Pac 10 ISN'T as strong as the SEC or Big 10.

could USC beat LSU, UGA, Michigan or OSU?? mb, but those teams are just as likely to beat USC.

 

[kalster]

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold

Originally posted by: kalster

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold

Originally posted by: shinerburke

Originally posted by: Alkaline5

Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
i've said it several places, but i would LOVE to see UGA beat LSU (very possible) and Oregon state to beat USC (not as likely) because of what it would do to the BCS.

Could you imagine the outcome?? i guess Michican would probably get the #2 spot, but WOW, the confusion would be amazing.

with 2 losses, (one to cal and one to Oregon state) USC should be pretty much out of the picture.

LSU , UGA , Michigan , OSU and Texas where would you rank them??

IMO in that scenario Michigan would go to the Sugar Bowl. UGA, Texas, and OSU are neck-and-neck right now which means that UGA would probably move into third behind Michigan with LSU falling a to 6.

USC isn't going to lose to the Beavers, though. They know what's on the line this Saturday.

True that....USC has to win so they can get their ass kicking from OU in the Sugar Bowl.

spoilsports, everyone knows what will happen if USC wins, it's much more fun to speculate what would happen should USC lose and UGA win.

Doesn't matter..

OU > the other 116 Division 1 teams

man u guys are all counting out trojans 🙁

well we'll see,we need win this weekend first and take it from there


OU is a very good team but Trojans are no 2 for a good reason tooo

ne way go TROJANS

i think people are legitimately skeptical of USC. the Pac 10 ISN'T as strong as the SEC or Big 10.

could USC beat LSU, UGA, Michigan or OSU?? mb, but those teams are just as likely to beat USC.

well i dont know, they only way you can rank or judge someone is based on their wins and they have been winning well (even though they are in a conference which has more weak teams than SEC and Big 10)

as far as how they would perform against teams from the bigger conferences, last year (when they werent playing as good as this season IMO) they played Iowa (which was #2 in Big 10 i think (behind OSU) ofcourse) and they whooped them totally


so ya, people are skeptic i guess, well ifrom the teams you mention USC IMO can best most if not at all (i am not sure about Michigan at the BIG HOUSE) but my opinion about them beating most of those teams is the same as those who think they cant , SPECULATION

so we'll find out either way in a few weeks

if LSU does go past USC for the national title game, USC still has a very good matchup against Michigan at the ROSE bowl, so it shud be fun to watch



edit: and can any team beside Sooners at this point claim with authority that they can beat USC, LSU, Michigan, going by numbers no , i think the gap between 1 and 2,3,4 teams is very huge

 

[Oscar1613]

article on what LSU needs and other scenarios

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: LS20
yes, apparently if they beat georgia twice there is a clause that says it negates their original quality win bonus (because apparently its not a "quality" win if you prove you can easily defeat a team?). even if they clobber georgia and swap spots with usc in the human polls they still would need alot of help from the computers

No. LSU wouldn't get double quality win points for beating Georgia twice. However, they would get the bonus for beating them once. However, the reason that people are projecting LSU to not get any quality win bonus is because after losing to LSU a second time (Georgia's third loss) would put them out of the top 10 and thus not give any quality win bonus.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: dullard
I thought that Tennessee could have also been in the game, if it were higher than Georgia in the BCS - maybe I'm wrong though. You'd have to think that with another loss, Georgia would get about 8.5 more BCS points. That looks like it will put Georgia at 10th place. There will be such a gap between 10th and 11th, I cannot imagine that Georgia will drop any further than that. However, I wouldn't see Georgia (with 3 losses) above Miami (with 2 losses). Thus Georgia couldn't be above 10th either. Thus LSU's quality win points will very likely drop from 0.4 to 0.1.

Where'd you get that 0.4 point number from? Yes Georgia has a two more wins than Florida, but Florida has played a much tougher schedule than Georgia (remember opponents of opponents count). Thus without doing the math myself, I'd expect them to be about equal boosts to LSU's SOS. I cannot see Georgia moving LSU up ten more places than Florida would.

Correct, Tennessee could have gotten in, IF the finished ahead of Georgia, and Florida finished within 5 BCS places of them. But, since Tennessee played two very easy opponents, they had no chance of finishing ahead of Georgia.

The difference in Georgia and Florida's winning percentages is .1666 in favor of Georgia, while the difference in their opponents winning percentages is .0919 in favor of florida. Since direct opponents are worth double opponents opponents, it definetly helps LSU to play Georgia. Jerry Palm did the math to get the .4 number, I didn't verify it, but it seems reasonable.

 

[pecel]

IF both USC and LSU lose this weekend is going to be fun 😛 🙂

I'll pick Sugar bowl for OU vs Texas
lol
Rematch Red river shootout and it's going to be fun 🙂 😛

 

[MikeyIs4Dcats]

Originally posted by: mpitts

Originally posted by: MikeyIs4Dcats

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: TC2181
So what are K-states chances this weekend...neutral field @kansas city

I'd say K-State has no chance at all. While my computer says K-State is going to be about the toughest game so far for OU (basically tied with Texas), things really aren't going to be very close for K-State. K-State's ALL TIME record against higher ranked teams is 1 win and nearly 80 losses. Except that one win really shouldn't count (since it is against Nebraska which is actually ranked lower than K-State). Therefore K-State has never in its history gone on the road and beaten a team ranked higher than them. K-State's rise to fame began by scheduling cupcakes and winning all their games until the end of the season game and their bowl game (which K-State proceeded to lose over and over). Yes they are a good team, but still they aren't as good as many people may think. As soon as K-State can regularly beat teams ranked high (with at least a 33% success rate), they will remain overrated.

Lets look at K-States games this year:
1) California 7-6,
2) Troy State 6-6 (some of those wins were 1AA teams),
3) McNeese State (a 1AA team),
4) Massachusetts (another 1AA team),
5) Lost to Marshal 8-4,
6) Lost to Texas 10-2,
7) Lost to Oklahoma State 9-3,
8) Colorado 5-7,
9) Kansas 6-6,
10) Baylor 3-9,
11) Iowa State 2-10,
12) Nebraska 9-3,
13) Missouri 8-4.

Look at 1-4 and 8-11. Can you say cupcake?

However, Oklahoma has nothing to play for, and K-State is playing for a chance to go to a great bowl. So it will likely be close. I say Oklahoma by 15.

Whaaa whaa whaa!! Cupcakes! Interesting how K-State's SOS is currently 29th in the nation. Compare to Oklahoma at 14, USC at 37 and LSU at 54. Year in and year out KSU has a SOS at bowl time that most of the NCAA can't surpass, yet everyone play the cupcake card. Oh, and teams 8-11 are conference opponents, so you can't complain about KSU scheduling those! And I think if you check the Sagarin ratings, our non-conference oppnents and even the 1-AA schools we have played are superior in the ratings than much of the 1-A field.

A quick check of the teams that K-State lost to tells me that can't beat good teams.

I'm sorry, but a non-conference schedule with 2 D1-AA teams, Troy State and Cal? That is pitiful. Oh, and the Wildcats lost to an average MAC team.

Their best win all year was against a offensively-challenged Nebraska team that, IMO, was overrated all year.

Once Bill Snyder can beat GOOD teams, maybe people will start to take their program seriously. Don't get me wrong, I like Roberson and Sproles a LOT, but they are not in the same class of teams as those in the top 10.

The loss to Marshall came when Roberson was injured, and is not indicative of the team as a whole. While it is disappointing that we had 2 1-AA teams on the schedule, that was forced because Miami (OH) pulled out of their agreement to play KSU this year late last season.... They would have been a nice team on the schedule, but nothing we could do about that. And ask USC about how pitiful Cal is....

 

[PlatinumGold]

isn't SOS by DEFINITION Flawed??

Wouldn't teams ranked LOWER in any given conference have a tougher SOS than the higher ranked teams in that division??

For eg, wouldn't EVERYONE in the Pac 10 more or less have a tougher SOS because they all face USC which surprisingly enough USC DOESN'T??

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: MikeyIs4Dcats
Whaaa whaa whaa!! Cupcakes! Interesting how K-State's SOS is currently 29th in the nation. Compare to Oklahoma at 14, USC at 37 and LSU at 54. Year in and year out KSU has a SOS at bowl time that most of the NCAA can't surpass, yet everyone play the cupcake card. Oh, and teams 8-11 are conference opponents, so you can't complain about KSU scheduling those! And I think if you check the Sagarin ratings, our non-conference oppnents and even the 1-AA schools we have played are superior in the ratings than much of the 1-A field.

I also rate the 1AA teams (I just don't post them here). Yes the two 1AA teams that KState played are better than many 1-A teams, but they certainly aren't top 25 material. Thus for a top 25 team like K-State, they should be easy wins (which they were looking at the score). Plus yes K-State played some good teams this year (Texas, Oklahoma State) but they LOST those games. So yes their SOS is high, but KState couldn't win in any of those tough games.

I have many issues with the BCS SOS calculations. The biggest chunk of the SOS is your actual opponents. Thus a good estimate for the SOS is to look just at your opponents (the opponent's opponents is only half as important). Thus for the biggest portion of the SOS, a team with a 8 win and 4 loss record counts the same on your SOS no matter how good that team is. For example, playing a hard Florida (8/4) or Arkansas (8/4) gives you the same opponent SOS boost as playing Tulsa or Toledo (both 8/4). Sure this is offset partially by the easy schedule that Tulsa or Toledo played, but the offset is much smaller than you'd think. For example if K-State played Florida today, Kstate would move from #29 to #27 in the SOS. But by playing Toledo today, K-State would move to #31. That is a difference of a measly 4 places between beating Florida and beating Toledo. Or a better example: you get the same exact SOS by playing Florida as you do by playing North Texas! Don't tell me North Texas and Florida are the same toughness.

Or how about this more abstract example. Suppose team X is 5/5 and team Y is 7/3. Both team X and team Y played the exact same opponents. Lets say those opponents totaled 50 wins and 50 losses. Now since team X and team Y played the EXACT same opponents, who has the stronger SOS? Of course, that is easy, team Y had a much tougher schedule than team X. What? You think they should be even? How silly of you. Here is the BCS formula:

Team X gets a SOS of: 2/3 * (45/90) = .3333
Team Y gets a SOS of: 2/3 * (47/90) = .3481

The opponent's opponents don't matter in that example since they are identical. Do you see how teams with good records automatically get a SOS boost - even if they play the exact same teams as someone with a poorer record?

You mention Sagarin? He has a SOS calculation on his page. He takes the average rating of all the teams you played, and compares that to the average rating that the other teams played. Where does KState fit? #55. LSU? #53. That is an example of how badly the BCS SOS component acutally measures your true SOS.

 

[Alkaline5]

Originally posted by: pecel
IF both USC and LSU lose this weekend is going to be fun 😛 🙂

I'll pick Sugar bowl for OU vs Texas
lol
Rematch Red river shootout and it's going to be fun 🙂 😛

My understanding is that same-year rematches are really frowned on by the BCS bowls. If Texas were to somehow make it into the #2 spot, national interest (outside of Texas/Oklahoma) in the Sugar Bowl would be next to nothing and bowl revenue would suffer. If legally possible the Sugar Bowl would try to select the #3 team instead of settling for a replay.

 

[Mookow]

What are the chances for the Orange Bowl being an OSU-UMiami rematch? How certain is it that OSU will be in a BCS game as an at large pic (assuming, of course, that both LSU and USC dont lose a game).

 

[Tom]

Originally posted by: Mookow
What are the chances for the Orange Bowl being an OSU-UMiami rematch? How certain is it that OSU will be in a BCS game as an at large pic (assuming, of course, that both LSU and USC dont lose a game).

Yea, and if LSU and USC both lose, putting Michigan in the Sugar, would OSU go to the Rose bowl ?

 

[sciencewhiz]

I haven't seen anyone predict OSU not going to a BCS bowl, recently. The fact that they were national champions last year helps a lot.

If USC loses to Oregon State, then it will be a USC / Michigan Rose Bowl. If both USC and Michigan lose, then it will be a USC / OSU Rose Bowl.

 

[TC2181]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: TC2181
So what are K-states chances this weekend...neutral field @kansas city

I'd say K-State has no chance at all. While my computer says K-State is going to be about the toughest game so far for OU (basically tied with Texas), things really aren't going to be very close for K-State. K-State's ALL TIME record against higher ranked teams is 1 win and nearly 80 losses. Except that one win really shouldn't count (since it is against Nebraska which is actually ranked lower than K-State). Therefore K-State has never in its history gone on the road and beaten a team ranked higher than them. K-State's rise to fame began by scheduling cupcakes and winning all their games until the end of the season game and their bowl game (which K-State proceeded to lose over and over). Yes they are a good team, but still they aren't as good as many people may think. As soon as K-State can regularly beat teams ranked high (with at least a 33% success rate), they will remain overrated.

Lets look at K-States games this year:
1) California 7-6,
2) Troy State 6-6 (some of those wins were 1AA teams),
3) McNeese State (a 1AA team),
4) Massachusetts (another 1AA team),
5) Lost to Marshal 8-4,
6) Lost to Texas 10-2,
7) Lost to Oklahoma State 9-3,
8) Colorado 5-7,
9) Kansas 6-6,
10) Baylor 3-9,
11) Iowa State 2-10,
12) Nebraska 9-3,
13) Missouri 8-4.

Look at 1-4 and 8-11. Can you say cupcake?

However, Oklahoma has nothing to play for, and K-State is playing for a chance to go to a great bowl. So it will likely be close. I say Oklahoma by 15.

14)Oklahoma 12-1

🙂