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Dullard's College Football Ratings, Week 7

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I am curios

what part of your program makes Cal rank above so many teams who havent had any losses, is there any factor which accounts for the fact that they lost marginally to the #2 team (in your ranking), coz all their wins have been against much lower ranked teams.
 
Originally posted by: abracadabra1
well...it seems your predictor puts miami up by .1 over louisville tonight....it should be a very interesting game

you bcs buster folks need to be pulling for louisville pretty darn hard tonight if you ask me...miami's defense is in a class far above anything louisville has yet experieced.

go CANES!
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it wactually puts them up by 3.1 i do believe because of HF advantage.

MIKE
 
Originally posted by: BigPoppa
Do you have 1AA ratings? <3 my Montana Griz football.
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It puts Montana at #13 (score predictor). I'm not going to bother rerunning it right now for the win predictor - I'll do it for you Sunday or Monday.
Originally posted by: kalster
what part of your program makes Cal rank above so many teams who havent had any losses
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A narrow loss against a good team might pull you up. For a theoretical example, if Army lost to Oklahoma by 1 point, Army would go up and Oklahoma would go down. Of course a big loss will hurt you.
Originally posted by: abracadabra1
well...it seems your predictor puts miami up by .1 over louisville tonight....it should be a very interesting game
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Wow just wow is all I can say. 24 to 7, Lou over Mia, right now. Hey I can't predict everything.
Originally posted by: Excelsior
Worst ratings ever.
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Ok. Now just help me fix them.
Originally posted by: Ogg
Dullard cant you bump LSU farther up in the rankings just to make me and most of south Louisiana feel better 🙁
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I don't adjust ratings for any reason other than (a) improved prediction of next week's winners or (b) improved predictions of next week's scores. I grew up in Nebraska, and I'm certainly not going to bump the Huskers up just for morale (70-10 loss...)
 
Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: abracadabra1
well...it seems your predictor puts miami up by .1 over louisville tonight....it should be a very interesting game
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Wow just wow is all I can say. 24 to 7, Lou over Mia, right now. Hey I can't predict everything.
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actually, I think you did pretty good 🙂 3 point win for Miamia at home is right on track.
 
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
actually, I think you did pretty good 🙂 3 point win for Miamia at home is right on track.
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Ok I lucked out, Miami did exactly what was expected. Sometimes I should keep my mouth shut until the game ends. I did a quick retest of the score predictor including the last 2 games (I didn't bother to adjust optimizations). Nothing really changed except Louisville lost just over 2 points in the score predictor. That wasn't enough to change things in the big picture since Louisville's score rating of 60.1 had a huge gap under it (only 2 teams between 60.1 and 56.4). Louisville and Oklahoma St swapped places, but there was no other significant change.

 
Originally posted by: JDub02
58!! Go 'CUSE!

we are teh suck
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Yes, yes we are.....however, I would bet that if Dullard did the home field advantage rankings at the end of the year, SU would have to be near the top. Just look at FSU being held to 17 pts in the Carrier Dome last week and the team being just a Reyes fumble away from a huge upset.

-Tom
 
BSU is ranked 12th, I'm thrilled. . . . maybe it is the year that a non BCS team gets a bowl bearth. BSU is favored 21 points AT Tulsa, even though Tulsa almost took them last year . . going to be a very good game.

The Fresno game next week I beleive has lost its hipe. Their coach was busy shopping for a Bowl instead of coaching his team, so they won't be a problem for BSU. Although - I still hope (Crosses fingers) that ESPN GAME DAY broadcasts from Smurf Turf for that game.
 
Originally posted by: kalster
if SC beats ASU this week, do they have a good chance of going past Miami
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I guess that question depends on which rating method you use (I listed two ratings but only ranked them in order on one of them due to laziness). The score predictor (last number in each row) already says Southern California would beat Miami by 6 points. Thus that method already answers your question. The other method (best win predictor) depends heavily on number of wins and losses of your opponents and less on the number of points scored. Yes a big win over ASU will help. But equally important are the wins and losses of the opponents, opponent's opponents, etc. Just focussing one game, SC vs ASU ignores the rest of those games. Thus I can't say for certain that SC will be #1. But beating a current #4 team certainly won't hurt. The more points the win is, the more it will help. The more your opponents win, the more it will help.
 
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: kalster
if SC beats ASU this week, do they have a good chance of going past Miami
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I guess that question depends on which rating method you use (I listed two ratings but only ranked them in order on one of them due to laziness). The score predictor (last number in each row) already says Southern California would beat Miami by 6 points. Thus that method already answers your question. The other method (best win predictor) depends heavily on number of wins and losses of your opponents and less on the number of points scored. Yes a big win over ASU will help. But equally important are the wins and losses of the opponents, opponent's opponents, etc. Just focussing one game, SC vs ASU ignores the rest of those games. Thus I can't say for certain that SC will be #1. But beating a current #4 team certainly won't hurt. The more points the win is, the more it will help. The more your opponents win, the more it will help.
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cool

good job on the ratings by the way (and not because my team is #2 😉 )

lets hope CAL keeps winning from this point on. and so does ASU after they loose to us 😉
 
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