Dullard's College Football Ratings - Week 14

[sciencewhiz]

Even if USC loses, they are still in the Rose Bowl.

Michigan is the most likely two loss team, assuming LSU and USC lose. They would still have a 1 point lead over Georgia in the Polls, and a small SOS advantage. Each would have a decent QW bonus, with Michigan getting one big one and Georgia getting two smaller ones. So, Georgia would have to get more then a point ahead of them in the computers.

The bowls would choose two at large teams from among Ohio State, Texas, LSU, and Tennessee. I would guess that Ohio State and Texas would be the choices, and LSU and tennessee would be going to lesser bowls.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
I do find it interesting that LSU is leading the country in scoring defense, and yet gave up 20 points to the teams that USC shut out. That seems to show me that LSU is overrated.

Originally posted by: Oscar1613
because prior to the Ole Miss game LSU only allowed 8.9 points per game and remains the only team in the nation that has yet to allow 20 or more points in a game this season.

I said that LSU is leading the country in scoring defense. Then I showed that it is a worthless statistic. I'm not arguing that LSU doesn't have a good defense, I'm arguing that the reason their defense is leading the nation is because they've played mostly bad teams. The best team that they've played (Georgia) doesn't have a consistant offense.

How do you explain that USC gave up less points to common opponents?

 

[dullard]

Ratings are now in. Sorry again about that delay.

My thoughts/questions about the latest BCS (specifically about LSU/USC since that is what this thread has turned into):
1) I'm surprised A&H jumped LSU over USC. But that computer was always messed up with TCU #3 in the nation.
2) Any complaints about CM rating OSU over both LSU and Michigan?
3) What about NYT rating Texas ahead of USC and LSU (acutally with LSU #9!)?

LSU is currently 2.15 points behind USC. But LSU will get closer if both teams win out.
1) LSU is most likely too many votes away to move up in the human polls - 0 points there.
2) LSU will most likely move to ~ a tie with USC in SOS - giving LSU ~ 0.88 points.
3) # of losses won't change.
4) Unless Tennessee loses to Kentucky, LSU will play UGA again, meaning LSU loses its 0.4 point quality win bonus.
Net so far: a 0.48 point gain to LSU. Thus LSU will be 1.67 points behind USC.

The computers are all that is left. If USC moves to #3 in all computers and if LSU moves to #2 in all computers (quite unlikely that LSU will be helped this much with just two games left especially since USC has a good team still to play as well), then LSU will gain 1.67 points. So in the best possible case, LSU is tied with USC.

LSU's only hope therefore lies on the possibility that LSU's out of conference opponents win out and USCs out of conference opponents lose out (making the SOS bonus bigger for LSU). But that still assumes that the unlikely case of all computers moving LSU to #2 pans out.

Sorry but I don't think LSU has a chance.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Well, NYT has always had wierd results. It definetly seems to factor SOS much more then losses.

Colley had OSU so far ahead, I'm not really suprised. Michigan was very far down in Colley. LSU will move up to #3 by beating Arkansas, and possibly #2, depending on what the other teams do. They will definetly move up to #2 after the SEC Championship game.

A&H has LSU and USC .002 points apart and .02 points ahead of anyone else, so I can't really complain.