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Dullard's College Football Ratings - Week 14

dullard

dullard

Elite Member
For the people who have been reading my posts, I thank you. But unfortunately I got caught up in writing my dissertation (166 pages and counting) that I didn't spend much time with the football rating program. I'll bring it tomorrow morning.

So what are your BCS thoughts? LSU got everything it needed last week (OSU loss, Washington win, LSU win). Still they will be #3 at this point in time. USC got helped by TCU's loss and thus would have likely leapfrogged OSU if OSU won and Washington lost (for just that one week) but of course that didn't happen. Can USC hold on to #2?

WinPlace / WinRating ( ScorePlace / ScoreRating ) Team name
01 / 161.3 ( 01 / 142.4 ) Oklahoma
02 / 159.1 ( 02 / 139.2 ) Southern California
03 / 151.9 ( 04 / 133.7 ) Georgia
04 / 150.5 ( 03 / 135.2 ) LSU
05 / 149.5 ( 05 / 132.5 ) Michigan
06 / 146.1 ( 06 / 131.9 ) Florida St.
07 / 145.3 ( 07 / 131.1 ) Kansas St.
08 / 145.3 ( 08 / 131.0 ) Texas
09 / 144.5 ( 12 / 127.2 ) Ohio St.
10 / 143.4 ( 13 / 127.1 ) Iowa
11 / 143.1 ( 14 / 126.4 ) Tennessee
12 / 142.7 ( 09 / 128.2 ) Miami Ohio
13 / 142.6 ( 10 / 128.0 ) Miami Florida
14 / 142.3 ( 16 / 125.6 ) Washington St.
15 / 141.7 ( 17 / 124.8 ) Purdue
16 / 139.9 ( 11 / 127.3 ) Arkansas
17 / 139.5 ( 19 / 124.3 ) Utah
18 / 137.8 ( 15 / 126.0 ) Minnesota
19 / 137.4 ( 20 / 124.3 ) Boise St.
20 / 137.2 ( 18 / 124.4 ) Nebraska
21 / 137.0 ( 22 / 124.0 ) Florida
22 / 135.7 ( 21 / 124.1 ) Virginia Tech
23 / 135.6 ( 23 / 123.2 ) Oklahoma St.
24 / 134.9 ( 25 / 122.6 ) Maryland
25 / 134.8 ( 24 / 122.9 ) Mississippi
26 / 134.3 ( 26 / 121.5 ) Michigan St.
27 / 133.9 ( 29 / 120.3 ) West Virginia
28 / 133.0 ( 28 / 120.9 ) Clemson
29 / 132.9 ( 32 / 119.6 ) Pittsburgh
30 / 132.5 ( 33 / 119.5 ) Wisconsin
31 / 132.3 ( 27 / 121.2 ) California
32 / 131.3 ( 41 / 117.4 ) Oregon
33 / 130.1 ( 34 / 119.3 ) New Mexico
34 / 129.9 ( 31 / 119.7 ) Oregon St.
35 / 129.7 ( 30 / 120.0 ) Auburn
36 / 129.5 ( 35 / 118.7 ) North Carolina St.
37 / 129.3 ( 40 / 117.5 ) TCU
38 / 129.2 ( 43 / 116.6 ) Southern Miss
39 / 129.1 ( 38 / 118.0 ) Texas Tech
40 / 129.0 ( 42 / 117.2 ) Bowling Green
41 / 128.5 ( 39 / 117.9 ) Colorado St.
42 / 127.6 ( 36 / 118.5 ) Missouri
43 / 127.3 ( 37 / 118.4 ) Virginia
44 / 125.0 ( 46 / 115.1 ) Boston College
45 / 124.9 ( 44 / 115.8 ) Connecticut
46 / 124.6 ( 51 / 114.0 ) Louisville
47 / 124.4 ( 55 / 112.8 ) Notre Dame
48 / 124.1 ( 52 / 113.8 ) Georgia Tech
49 / 123.6 ( 49 / 114.2 ) Air Force
50 / 123.6 ( 45 / 115.6 ) Memphis
51 / 123.3 ( 47 / 114.9 ) Alabama
52 / 122.8 ( 53 / 113.4 ) Washington
53 / 122.8 ( 48 / 114.6 ) Northern Illinois
54 / 121.3 ( 57 / 112.3 ) South Carolina
55 / 121.1 ( 50 / 114.1 ) Syracuse
56 / 121.1 ( 65 / 110.2 ) Northwestern
57 / 121.1 ( 60 / 111.2 ) Marshall
58 / 121.0 ( 54 / 113.0 ) Wake Forest
59 / 121.0 ( 56 / 112.4 ) North Texas
60 / 120.1 ( 58 / 111.4 ) UCLA
61 / 119.8 ( 63 / 111.0 ) Toledo
62 / 119.3 ( 59 / 111.4 ) Kansas
63 / 119.0 ( 62 / 111.2 ) Colorado
64 / 117.6 ( 64 / 110.3 ) Tulsa
65 / 117.0 ( 66 / 109.4 ) UNLV
66 / 117.0 ( 61 / 111.2 ) Navy
67 / 116.4 ( 67 / 108.9 ) Hawaii
68 / 115.8 ( 70 / 107.9 ) Stanford
69 / 115.8 ( 69 / 108.1 ) Fresno St.
70 / 115.7 ( 68 / 108.6 ) San Diego St.
71 / 112.8 ( 73 / 106.7 ) Arizona St.
72 / 112.8 ( 72 / 107.4 ) Penn St.
73 / 112.1 ( 74 / 105.4 ) Brigham Young
74 / 112.0 ( 76 / 105.0 ) UAB
75 / 111.9 ( 77 / 104.7 ) Texas A&M
76 / 110.8 ( 71 / 107.6 ) Kentucky
77 / 110.5 ( 75 / 105.3 ) Wyoming
78 / 110.1 ( 78 / 104.5 ) Louisiana Tech
79 / 109.5 ( 79 / 104.4 ) Rutgers
80 / 109.1 ( 80 / 104.0 ) Nevada
81 / 109.0 ( 83 / 102.9 ) Houston
82 / 107.4 ( 81 / 103.4 ) Akron
83 / 106.5 ( 82 / 103.0 ) South Florida
84 / 106.0 ( 84 / 102.5 ) Cincinnati
85 / 104.9 ( 85 / 100.9 ) Duke
86 / 104.6 ( 088 / 98.5 ) Arizona
87 / 103.2 ( 087 / 98.9 ) Troy St.
88 / 102.3 ( 86 / 100.3 ) Western Michigan
89 / 101.3 ( 090 / 97.8 ) Tulane
90 / 100.4 ( 092 / 97.4 ) Rice
91 / 100.1 ( 089 / 98.4 ) North Carolina
092 / 99.9 ( 095 / 96.8 ) Iowa St.
093 / 99.0 ( 093 / 97.3 ) Kent St.
094 / 98.6 ( 097 / 95.3 ) Mississippi St.
095 / 98.6 ( 094 / 97.1 ) Middle Tennessee
096 / 98.1 ( 099 / 94.6 ) Baylor
097 / 98.0 ( 091 / 97.6 ) Vanderbilt
098 / 97.4 ( 096 / 95.4 ) Illinois
099 / 96.7 ( 098 / 95.1 ) San Jose St.
100 / 96.5 ( 102 / 93.7 ) Ball St.
101 / 94.5 ( 100 / 94.5 ) Utah St.
102 / 94.5 ( 104 / 93.3 ) Indiana
103 / 93.8 ( 106 / 93.0 ) Louisiana-Lafayette
104 / 92.5 ( 101 / 93.8 ) Temple
105 / 91.7 ( 105 / 93.1 ) Idaho
106 / 91.3 ( 103 / 93.4 ) New Mexico St.
107 / 87.7 ( 108 / 89.0 ) Arkansas St.
108 / 87.5 ( 107 / 91.4 ) Ohio
109 / 85.4 ( 109 / 88.6 ) UCF
110 / 83.0 ( 112 / 85.4 ) Eastern Michigan
111 / 82.3 ( 111 / 86.6 ) East Carolina
112 / 82.1 ( 110 / 86.8 ) Central Michigan
113 / 80.6 ( 113 / 84.5 ) Louisiana Monroe
114 / 79.7 ( 114 / 83.0 ) Buffalo
115 / 77.9 ( 115 / 82.2 ) SMU
116 / 76.9 ( 116 / 79.8 ) UTEP
117 / 73.9 ( 117 / 79.7 ) Army

 
Originally posted by: dullard
For the people who have been reading my posts, I thank you. But unfortunately I got caught up in writing my dissertation (166 pages and counting) that I didn't spend much time with the football rating program. I'll bring it tomorrow morning.

That said, what I briefly looked at (unoptimized for last week) shows this:
#1 Oklahoma,
#2 USC - actually getting quite close to Oklahoma,
#3 LSU/UGA these teams have been quite close and unsurprisingly so was their game when they played - it would be quite interesting to see a rematch
#5 Michigan
#6 Texas
Things might change slightly when I reoptimize it.

So what are your BCS thoughts? LSU got everything it needed last week (OSU loss, Washington win, LSU win). Still they will be #3 at this point in time. USC got helped by TCU's loss and thus would have likely leapfrogged OSU if OSU won and Washington lost (for just that one week) but of course that didn't happen. Can USC hold on to #2?
Click to expand...

I hope not. They have not won against a great team all season. Their only claim to fame is beating a fellow conference member (9-3) that has plaid an even weaker schedule. If they get in it will be a true travesty.
 
Originally posted by: Nitemare
I hope not. They have not won against a great team all season. Their only claim to fame is beating a fellow conference member (9-3) that has plaid an even weaker schedule. If they get in it will be a true travesty.
Click to expand...
Both LSU and USC are untested so far. LSU's only claim to fame is a win over an 8-2 team and a 8-3 team. USC's only claim to fame is a win over an 9-3 team. Neither have had a very tough schedule so far. Luckilly in this case there are some comparison games:

LSU beat Auburn by 24, USC beat Auburn by 23 (a shutout)
LSU beat Arizona by 46, USC beat Arizona by 45 (a shutout).

Looks like LSU and USC played virtually identical in those comparison games. So what about the one loss: LSU lost big time to an 8-3 team, and USC narrowly lost in double overtime to a 7-6 team. I don't know how you interpret that since the losses were of different magnitudes.

So far, I'd say it is a tie based on those statistics (quality wins, comparison games, and losses). LSU has more to gain though by playing two decent teams. Unfortunately in the next few weeks, LSU quality wins that they have so far will quite possibly lose a game.
 
I would assume that the reason USC is able to approach Oklahoma is because of the MOV cap?

I do find it interesting that LSU is leading the country in scoring defense, and yet gave up 20 points to the teams that USC shut out. That seems to show me that LSU is overrated.

On another note. Oklahoma beat UCLA by 35, USC beat UCLA by 25.
Oklahoma beat Alabama by 7, LSU beat Alabama by 24.
 
how can you say that Georgia and LSU are tied? The score did not reflect the brutal beating that LSU gave to David Greene and Georgia that day. They flustered and confused Eli Manning all day long.

Georgia is 2-2 versus top 25 teams. LSU is 3-0.

Let's also not forget that LSU has one loss, one of only three teams in the country who can say that! This is the same Georgia team who nearly was beat by UAB a month ago and lost to Florida 23 days ago.

LSU, meanwhile, hasn't come close to losing since October 11, although Ole Miss was an entertaining game that actually wasn't over in the second quarter. They have allowed more than 10 points only TWICE.

Come on... you also have to put Michigan ahead of Georgia!
 
Originally posted by: fjorner
how can you say that Georgia and LSU are tied? The score did not reflect the brutal beating that LSU gave to David Greene and Georgia that day. They flustered and confused Eli Manning all day long.

Georgia is 2-2 versus top 25 teams. LSU is 3-0.

Let's also not forget that LSU has one loss, one of only three teams in the country who can say that! This is the same Georgia team who nearly was beat by UAB a month ago and lost to Florida 23 days ago.

LSU, meanwhile, hasn't come close to losing since October 11, although Ole Miss was an entertaining game that actually wasn't over in the second quarter. They have allowed more than 10 points only TWICE.

Come on... you also have to put Michigan ahead of Georgia!
Click to expand...
Well most likely this will all get worked out quite soon with the probable LSU/UGA rematch. If LSU wins, of course a 3 loss Georgia will be out of the picture and you will have LSU and Michigan ahead of them - you will be correct. If LSU loses are you willing to eat your words?

Fact check - lets look at the current top 25 (coaches poll):
LSU beat #5 Georgia and #19 Mississippi, but lost to #11 Florida - making them 2-1 vs top 25. Not 3-0 like you claim.
Georgia beat #8 Tennessee but lost to #3 LSU and #11 Florida - making them 1-2 vs top 25. Not 2-2 like you claim.

Fact check - lets look at the LSU/UGA game:
UGA had 23 first downs, LSU had 16
UGA had 411 net yeards averaging 5.1 yards per play, LSU had 285 yards averaging 3.9 yards per play
UGA punted 6 times, LSU punted 8 times
Score with 2 minutes left in the game: UGA 10, LSU 10
The stats don't "reflect the brutal beating that LSU gave to David Greene and Georgia that day. They flustered and confused Eli Manning all day long."

 
I have an idea for revamping the BCS computers.

I think the problem is that the the computers all factor in the exact same stuff, and there are certain things that they aren't allowed to factor in (MOV). As we saw when Dullard played around with his MOV caps, getting rid of MOV will decrease the accuracy of the ratings. Now, I've seen a lot of people (not necessarily on thes boards) who are calling to let MOV back into the ratings. And they all call for a cap on the margin of victory. Some people say 14, some people say 21, and of course, there is every other number. The problem is that that MOV cap is for the most part, abitrary.

I think that the only important part of the computer rankings is their accuracy. I don't care what things they factor in as long as they can rank the teams accurately.

Now, for the BCS, there are two things that factor into accuracy. One is how well does the computer predict games of the season, given the results of the season. IE, how good is it's hindsight. This is most important for the final BCS rankings, which are really the ones that count the most. The other important factor is how good the rankings are, at each week in the middle of the season. This is important because the BCS rankings are released on a weekly basis. It isn't good for a team to move a whole lot, based on 1 game, especially if that game went as predicted (See USC falling so much because they blew out Arizona).

So, rather then choosing computers based on arbitrary resitrictions, I would choose the computers that gave the best predictions based on the above criteria. I don't even care if the computer factors in the teams performance in 1903, as long as they show that the computer can make good predictions.

I would also increase the number of computers used, probably to 10. Then I would drop the lowest and highest for each team.

Each summer, the computers would be reevaluated. The people who run the computers could tweak their system during the summer, if they want, but they would then be reevaluated. Somebody else (say Dullard) could submit thier computer rankings and if the results were better then one of the other computers, Dullard would be a part of the BCS for the upcoming year.

I think the BCS would be much better served if they did that.
 
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
I have an idea for revamping the BCS computers.

I think the problem is that the the computers all factor in the exact same stuff

I think the BCS would be much better served if they did that.
Click to expand...
I agree 100%. Having 8 computers that all are forced to look only at the winners/losers and ignore everything else (score, yards, defense, etc) gives just one viewpoint of how to rank teams. I'd much perfer half to look solely at winners/losers, and half to look at the scores and whatever else they choose. Have a wide range of score cutoffs in the computers. That way we get a multitude of different viewpoints - rather than 8 computers saying the exact same thing.
 
Originally posted by: fjorner
how can you say that Georgia and LSU are tied? The score did not reflect the brutal beating that LSU gave to David Greene and Georgia that day. They flustered and confused Eli Manning all day long.

Georgia is 2-2 versus top 25 teams. LSU is 3-0.

Let's also not forget that LSU has one loss, one of only three teams in the country who can say that! This is the same Georgia team who nearly was beat by UAB a month ago and lost to Florida 23 days ago.

LSU, meanwhile, hasn't come close to losing since October 11, although Ole Miss was an entertaining game that actually wasn't over in the second quarter. They have allowed more than 10 points only TWICE.

Come on... you also have to put Michigan ahead of Georgia!
Click to expand...

I think you mean LSU is 3-1 against top 25 teams. Both LSU and Georgia lost to Florida (LSU by 9 points and GA by 3). Not only that but Georgia uncharacteristically missed 3 field goal attempts vs. LSU, which is more than the margin of victory.

I agree 100% that Michigan should be ahead of Georgia, but the LSU/Georgia tie makes sense too.
 
Originally posted by: Alkaline5
Originally posted by: fjorner
how can you say that Georgia and LSU are tied? The score did not reflect the brutal beating that LSU gave to David Greene and Georgia that day. They flustered and confused Eli Manning all day long.

Georgia is 2-2 versus top 25 teams. LSU is 3-0.

Let's also not forget that LSU has one loss, one of only three teams in the country who can say that! This is the same Georgia team who nearly was beat by UAB a month ago and lost to Florida 23 days ago.

LSU, meanwhile, hasn't come close to losing since October 11, although Ole Miss was an entertaining game that actually wasn't over in the second quarter. They have allowed more than 10 points only TWICE.

Come on... you also have to put Michigan ahead of Georgia!
Click to expand...

I think you mean LSU is 3-1 against top 25 teams. Both LSU and Georgia lost to Florida (LSU by 9 points and GA by 3). Not only that but Georgia uncharacteristically missed 3 field goal attempts vs. LSU, which is more than the margin of victory.

I agree 100% that Michigan should be ahead of Georgia, but the LSU/Georgia tie makes sense too.
Click to expand...

The Ole Miss kicker is one of the best in the SEC and he missed 2 easies that would have given them a victory on Saturday.

You have to draw the line somewhere. Florida only plays good when they are supposed to lose. LSU had the unfortunate luck to be favored against them.

LSU's defense would be a good match for the Oklahoma offense, but their offense would be totally dominated.
 
Originally posted by: Parasitic
USC lost to Cal, and that's all it matters 😉
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USC's only loss was to a bowl eligible team in the 2nd overtime - meaning USC was very nearly undefeated. No other team can claim that.

 
Originally posted by: Nitemare
The Ole Miss kicker is one of the best in the SEC and he missed 2 easies that would have given them a victory on Saturday.

You have to draw the line somewhere. Florida only plays good when they are supposed to lose. LSU had the unfortunate luck to be favored against them.

LSU's defense would be a good match for the Oklahoma offense, but their offense would be totally dominated.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's SEC football I guess. Whether it means they're inconsistent or just a highly competitive conference, I don't know... probably both.

Regardless, I don't see the SEC champ being a good match for Oklahoma. USC has a better shot than anyone at knocking them off.
 
Originally posted by: dullard

USC's only loss was to a bowl eligible team in the 2nd overtime - meaning USC was very nearly undefeated. No other team can claim that.
Click to expand...

It was actually the 3rd overtime 😉 But, that fumble on the goal line in the 1st overtime is what killed USC.
 
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
I do find it interesting that LSU is leading the country in scoring defense, and yet gave up 20 points to the teams that USC shut out. That seems to show me that LSU is overrated.
.
Click to expand...

because prior to the Ole Miss game LSU only allowed 8.9 points per game and remains the only team in the nation that has yet to allow 20 or more points in a game this season.
 
Originally posted by: Oscar1613
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
I do find it interesting that LSU is leading the country in scoring defense, and yet gave up 20 points to the teams that USC shut out. That seems to show me that LSU is overrated.
.
Click to expand...

because prior to the Ole Miss game LSU only allowed 8.9 points per game and remains the only team in the nation that has yet to allow 20 or more points in a game this season.
Click to expand...

Again, ditto.
 
Originally posted by: Oscar1613
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
I do find it interesting that LSU is leading the country in scoring defense, and yet gave up 20 points to the teams that USC shut out. That seems to show me that LSU is overrated.
Click to expand...

because prior to the Ole Miss game LSU only allowed 8.9 points per game and remains the only team in the nation that has yet to allow 20 or more points in a game this season.
Click to expand...

overrated. You didn't give any reasons why they aren't.

Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, and USC wouldn't give up 20 points against LSU's schedule.
 
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
Originally posted by: Oscar1613
Originally posted by: sciencewhiz
I do find it interesting that LSU is leading the country in scoring defense, and yet gave up 20 points to the teams that USC shut out. That seems to show me that LSU is overrated.
Click to expand...

because prior to the Ole Miss game LSU only allowed 8.9 points per game and remains the only team in the nation that has yet to allow 20 or more points in a game this season.
Click to expand...

overrated. You didn't give any reasons why they aren't.

Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, and USC wouldn't give up 20 points against LSU's schedule.
Click to expand...

i most certainly did. futhermore, the defense only gave up 19 first half points TOTAL (26 if you include the defensive touchdown scored by Ole Miss).

and your last statement is pure unsubstantiated speculation
 
Originally posted by: przero
Bring all them boys to the SEC (Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, and USC).
Click to expand...

Why? So they can beat all of the SEC teams in bowl games, like they do every other year?

The SEC is good, but it is no better than the Big Ten.
 
Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
i just want USC to lose to Oregon state and UGA to beat LSU in the SEC championships. man that would throw the bcs into a tizzy.
Click to expand...

That would be awesome if it were to happen. But it is possible.
 
Originally posted by: Lyfer
Originally posted by: PlatinumGold
i just want USC to lose to Oregon state and UGA to beat LSU in the SEC championships. man that would throw the bcs into a tizzy.
Click to expand...

That would be awesome if it were to happen. But it is possible.
Click to expand...

IF uga were to beat LSU and USC lose to OSU, who would be #2??

UGA, Michigan, USC, LSU??

they would all be legitimate and one of the 4 wouldn't play BCS at all.

oklahoma vs #2 and 2 others play in the #3 #4 game

wow, talk about controversy. 🙂

of course the more likely scenario is, USC wins, UGA wins.


then it will be USC vs OKlahoma and UGA vs Michigan.
 
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