Dubya in trouble says Dick Morris

[sMiLeYz]

NYPOST

April 20, 2004 -- BOTH of the polling organizations that track the presidential race in daily surveys have concluded that the contest has settled into a stalemate. Scott Rasmussen reports that for eight of the last nine days, President Bush has gotten 45 to 46 percent of the vote, while Sen. John Kerry ranged from 44 to 46 percent. John Zogby shows Kerry ahead by three and reports little movement either way.

This "tie" is terrible news for the Bush camp.

One of the (very few) immutable laws of politics is that the undecided vote almost always goes against the incumbent. Consider the past seven presidential elections in which an incumbent ran (1964, '72, '76, '80, '84, '92, and '96) - that is, look at the final vote versus the last Gallup or Harris polls. My analysis shows that the challengers (Goldwater, McGovern, Carter, Reagan, Mondale, Perot, Clinton, and Dole) got 85 percent of the undecided vote. Even incumbents who won got only 15 percent of those who reported that they were undecided in the final polls.

So . . . when Bush and Kerry are tied, the challenger really has the upper hand.

More bad news for Bush: Democrats usually grow 2-3 points right before Election Day as downscale voters who have not paid much attention to the election, suddenly tune in and "come home" to their traditional Democratic Party moorings. Remember, virtually every poll (except Zogby) showed Bush slightly ahead of Al Gore as the 2000 election approached - yet Gore outpolled Bush by 500,000 votes.

I had thought - and hoped - that Bush could open up a big lead in the two months after Kerry locked up the Democratic nomination. After all, Kerry is, in fact, way too liberal for the average American voter. But Bush's negative ads - though good, plentiful, and on target - lost their impact in April.

What happened? Iraq. The surprising casualties of this disastrous month let Kerry skate by the avalanche of attack ads relatively unscathed. And by now, Bush may have lost the ability to define Kerry

Lying behind the bad news for Bush is his inability to appeal to women in the campaign. His "stand firm" press conference last week was entirely male-oriented. His tough words and determination to defend the cause of the "fallen" resonated well with men but crashed among women.

The genders see the War on Terror in totally different terms. Rasmussen reports that men, by 51 percent to 36 percent, say that the U.S. is safer than it was before 9/11. But women are evenly divided, with 41 percent feeling more safe and 42 percent, less.

Women disagree with the entire Bush strategy of fighting terrorism. Offered a choice between "letting terrorists know we will fight back aggressively" and "working with other nations," men opt for fighting aggressively by 53 to 41 percent while women want us to work with other nations instead by 54 to 36 percent - a gender gap of 30 points.

To bounce back, Bush obviously has to staunch the bleeding in Iraq. But he also has to appeal to women voters as he did in 2000.

Then, he was a "compassionate conservative" committed to leaving "no child behind." Now he needs to speak of the human toll exacted by Saddam Hussein when he ran Iraq. He should speak about saving the children of that beleaguered nation. At home, he has to explain why a democratic - or at least a stable - Iraq means more safety for our families. He should discard the military-macho rhetoric and the bureaucratic references to American "credibility" and focus on values, human beings, children and hope.

If Bush permanently alienates women by his words and tone in the War on Terror, he'll throw away the issue that he needs to carry him into a second term.

Make of this what you will...

 

[dahunan]

?? Will the Republican SHILL named NAder drop out of the race or will he work to get Bush re-elected?

 

[rockyct]

I think in the end Nader will not be the factor. People may say they will vote for Nader in hopes that it may influence others, but on Election day most will remember what happened four years earlier and vote Kerry.

 

[Siddhartha]

The Electorial College not the popular vote selects the president. So you need to look at polls in terms of regions. And it is still too early in the process to pay attention to the polls

 

[Pennstate]

I wouldn't believe ANYTHING that Dick Morris says

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Pennstate
I wouldn't believe ANYTHING that Dick Morris says

Isn't he the idiot who was busted wearing womens clothing while in the company of a Prostitute?

The fact that a Liberal Democrat from Mass is close to striking distance says volumes about the Americans dissatisifaction with the Dubs Presidency.

 

[chess9]

Although I too wouldn't normally trust Dick Morris as far as his lisp can be heard this analysis actually looks pretty sound to me. What he is missing-and the reason Bush will probably win-is people are not going to change horses in the middle of a war and with terrorism so high on the agenda. Uh, uh, won't happen. Fear will drive the win for Bush. My brother the Republican says he is so afraid of what Kerry might do about the war that he's willing to vote for Bush despite his lies and intellectual failings. And folks have tied the war in Iraq with terrorism.

Meanwhile, I listened to McCain on CNBC last night shilling his new book and really wish we had someone of his character running, even though we disagree about the war. The two bums running aren't worthy of carrying McCain's briefcase.

-Robert

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: chess9
Although I too wouldn't normally trust Dick Morris as far as his lisp can be heard this analysis actually looks pretty sound to me. What he is missing-and the reason Bush will probably win-is people are not going to change horses in the middle of a war and with terrorism so high on the agenda. Uh, uh, won't happen. Fear will drive the win for Bush. My brother the Republican says he is so afraid of what Kerry might do about the war that he's willing to vote for Bush despite his lies and intellectual failings. And folks have tied the war in Iraq with terrorism.

Meanwhile, I listened to McCain on CNBC last night shilling his new book and really wish we had someone of his character running, even though we disagree about the war. The two bums running aren't worthy of carrying McCain's briefcase.

-Robert

Sadly I concur. The real "Fear Factor" (not the stupid TV series) really works. My personal polling of people which includes my wife and many Repubs that were thinking of going for a change, waffle back to staying with the Fearless Liar as they get more and more scared.

Interesting how these Sheep can't answer the question of "If we are winning the War on Terror so well as your Fearless Liar says, why are you still frightened and getting even more frightful?"