Question DRAM prices speculation (OMG)

[fastandfurious6]

up to 150% increase throughout all DRAM products 😭
128GB now costs upwards $1000.... was $400 just 6 months ago

is it going to go back?

 

[Doug S]

up to 150% increase throughout all DRAM products 😭
128GB now costs upwards $1000.... was $400 just 6 months ago

is it going to go back?

This has all happened before, and it'll happen again. In the mid 90s prices went way up (because of Windows 95 memory requirements) and it took over two years before they hit a lower point than they had been previously. There have been some episodes since but not as big as that one (and this one) so people are caught off guard.

If the AI bubble doesn't burst and they actually follow through with even half of the claimed/planned/announced datacenter projects it might double again before it peaks. They have the money to push Samsung/Micron/etc. into converting lines making DDR5/LPDDR5X to HBM, and they'll happily go along because $$$.

I imagine the China memory fabs are greatly speeding up their timelines and will be able to get a lot more capacity online. The US will likely tariff or otherwise block them but that RAM will be able to be used in PCs/phones shipping to the rest of the world so if you live outside the US you might get some relief later next year.

 

[misuspita]

I bought a 64gb 6000 cl30 patriot viper ddr5 kit a month ago with 190€. Well, that was lucky ))

 

[johnsonwax]

Apple points and laughs.

 

[Fjodor2001]

In the mid 90s prices went way up (because of Windows 95 memory requirements)

Perhaps Windows is also a reason in this case.

I.e. the forced Windows 11 upgrades when Windows 10 went EOL in October 2025, which for a lot of users means that have to buy a new PC.

 

[NTMBK]

Shouldn't this be in the Memory subforum?

 

[fastandfurious6]

Forgot there's a memory section. There's a good thread already there. This can be deleted

 

[Doug S]

Perhaps Windows is also a reason in this case.

I.e. the forced Windows 11 upgrades when Windows 10 went EOL in October 2025, which for a lot of users means that have to buy a new PC.

That just doesn't account for all that much, first because most people aren't replacing their PCs over that (look how long it took Windows 7 to drop below a double digit share of the installed base after it went EOL, and I bet Windows 10 will take even longer to get there) and second because the PC that most will buy to replace it doesn't have all that much RAM.

Looking at Best Buy's Black Friday PC/laptop deals (the kind of place average people would look at if they felt like they were "forced" to replace their PC) you see Chromebooks with 4 GB, and PCs with 8 GB and 16 GB. I didn't scroll far (their site sucks and is slow/overloaded) but I didn't see anything higher than 16 GB.

That 8 GB to 16 GB range is smartphone territory, and there are 3-4x as many smartphones shipped per year as PCs. Apple going from 8 GB to 12 GB in the iPhone (which ships nearly a quarter billion units per year - for context 262 million PCs shipped in 2024) probably has more impact on the DRAM market than Windows 11 forced upgrades lol