Dr Fauci's Current Prediction: 100-200k deaths, Millions infected.

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ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,999
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Show them this...
It still wouldn't matter. I too have relatives who are ardent Trumpeters, and anything that does not fit their preconceived ideas is a lie, fake news, or some conspiracy of the media/liberals. They are totally immune to any sort of fact based logical reasoning; it is like reasoning with a 5 year old. Their mental disconnect with reality is truly amazing.
 
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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
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Let's assume only 30% of the United States gets this. That's 98,000,000 people.

Let's assume the CFR is only 0.5%. That's 490,000 deaths.

100,000-200,000 seems highly optimistic. In order to allow only 200,000 deaths with a CFR of 0.5%, only 40,000,000 (12%) of the United States can be infected. If you increase the CFR or the number of infected, obviously the situation gets even worse.

Math is hard, particularly with lots of zeroes. I figure Fauci lowballed the numbers to prevent widespread panic.
 
May 13, 2009
12,333
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I'm what people here would call a Trumper. I fancy myself an independent honestly that happens to side mostly with Republicans at the moment. I am terrified of the virus personally. We all have someone we care about that could lose their lives due to this. I wish those around me felt the same way and took it as seriously as I do. Guys at work are still thinking this is overblown and it won't affect them. Cases have been relatively low in Texas so far. I hope it stays that way but we have a ton of idiots that will probably see to it that we get our fair share. So there are some "trumpers" that take this seriously.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
It still wouldn't matter. I too have relatives who are ardent Trumpeters, and anything that does not fit their preconceived ideas is a lie, fake news, or some conspiracy of the media/liberals. They are totally immune to any sort of fact based logical reasoning; it is like reasoning with a 5 year old. Their mental disconnect with reality is truly amazing.

The only way some people learn is the hard way. Even that doesn't matter when it kills them.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,730
28,907
136
Let's assume only 30% of the United States gets this. That's 98,000,000 people.

Let's assume the CFR is only 0.5%. That's 490,000 deaths.

100,000-200,000 seems highly optimistic. In order to allow only 200,000 deaths with a CFR of 0.5%, only 40,000,000 (12%) of the United States can be infected. If you increase the CFR or the number of infected, obviously the situation gets even worse.
Dr. Birks confirmed this morning 200K is a "best case" scanario
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,730
28,907
136
I'm what people here would call a Trumper. I fancy myself an independent honestly that happens to side mostly with Republicans at the moment. I am terrified of the virus personally. We all have someone we care about that could lose their lives due to this. I wish those around me felt the same way and took it as seriously as I do. Guys at work are still thinking this is overblown and it won't affect them. Cases have been relatively low in Texas so far. I hope it stays that way but we have a ton of idiots that will probably see to it that we get our fair share. So there are some "trumpers" that take this seriously.
What is your explanation why they don't take this seriously?
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,118
10,939
136
I'm what people here would call a Trumper. I fancy myself an independent honestly that happens to side mostly with Republicans at the moment. I am terrified of the virus personally. We all have someone we care about that could lose their lives due to this. I wish those around me felt the same way and took it as seriously as I do. Guys at work are still thinking this is overblown and it won't affect them. Cases have been relatively low in Texas so far. I hope it stays that way but we have a ton of idiots that will probably see to it that we get our fair share. So there are some "trumpers" that take this seriously.

like this guy, for example?
TX Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick
"No one reached out to me and said, 'As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?' And if that is the exchange, I'm all in," Patrick told Fox News.
He added, "My messages is that let's get back to work, let's get back to living. Let's be smart about it and those of us who are 70+, we'll take care of ourselves. But don't sacrifice the country."

call and yell at him for being a moron. i would if i still lived there (austin). glad austin closed down SXSW. that would have been a massive clusterfuck of coronavirus spreading
 

ShookKnight

Senior member
Dec 12, 2019
646
658
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I honestly hope that is not the case.

And, I am glad the current measures have been extended to April 30th - Trump listened and did not 'open the country' for Easter.

Now, what if we DO hit the 100 to 200,000 deaths? Wasn't Obama considered to be the Angel of Death over the 10,000 H1N1 deaths in the US? Some people even demanded he be locked up for allowing such a high number of deaths. Will these same people be demanding Trump be placed in prison for the 100 to 200,000 deaths?

No, they will not.

Trump doomed us and caused the current situation we are in. And, everything is being done by his base and his shills to vilify anyone criticizing him over his fuck ups. Why, there is even a movement to "prove" that China is lying about it's actual deaths... yet, here in the USA, COVID19 is a hoax.

How is COVID19 a serious and deadly virus in China - that is being covered up by China, yet a complete hoax here in the US? Because COVID19 is making Trump look bad - and his supporters are downplaying the severity of it. As a result, millions will be infected. And, instead of quickly reacting, Trump decided to dole out TRILLIONS to his buddies in corporate America.
 
May 13, 2009
12,333
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What is your explanation why they don't take this seriously?
I think because they think everything is fake news. Also because the reality of it hasn't set in yet mostly because it's just something that is going on somewhere else, not here. Also they think climate change is a hoax. I really don't understand their thinking. Mostly they are pretty stupid.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,730
28,907
136
I think because they think everything is fake news. Also because the reality of it hasn't set in yet mostly because it's just something that is going on somewhere else, not here. Also they think climate change is a hoax. I really don't understand their thinking. Mostly they are pretty stupid.
Want more then that. If you think about it for a minute I think you can give us the real answer. Why do they think everything is fake news? There is an answer.

It would be nice if you just say it.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
I think because they think everything is fake news. Also because the reality of it hasn't set in yet mostly because it's just something that is going on somewhere else, not here. Also they think climate change is a hoax. I really don't understand their thinking. Mostly they are pretty stupid.

Substitute "Trump" for "Russia" as you read this article-


He overwhelms the minds of people with constant falsehoods & the whole constellation of right wing talking heads back him up. Corona virus DGAF. It's immune to his constant bullshit & gaslighting.
 
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TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
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I honestly hope that is not the case.

And, I am glad the current measures have been extended to April 30th - Trump listened and did not 'open the country' for Easter.

Now, what if we DO hit the 100 to 200,000 deaths? Wasn't Obama considered to be the Angel of Death over the 10,000 H1N1 deaths in the US? Some people even demanded he be locked up for allowing such a high number of deaths. Will these same people be demanding Trump be placed in prison for the 100 to 200,000 deaths?

No, they will not.

Trump doomed us and caused the current situation we are in. And, everything is being done by his base and his shills to vilify anyone criticizing him over his fuck ups. Why, there is even a movement to "prove" that China is lying about it's actual deaths... yet, here in the USA, COVID19 is a hoax.

How is COVID19 a serious and deadly virus in China - that is being covered up by China, yet a complete hoax here in the US? Because COVID19 is making Trump look bad - and his supporters are downplaying the severity of it. As a result, millions will be infected. And, instead of quickly reacting, Trump decided to dole out TRILLIONS to his buddies in corporate America

Trump will say (as he's already started) that without his incredible response, the best response really, that it would be millions, maybe even billions, of Americans dead. Only his decisions saved all those people, so really, everyone should be thanking him.

And a large, large, number of people will believe every word.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
8,960
8,191
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I'm what people here would call a Trumper. I fancy myself an independent honestly that happens to side mostly with Republicans at the moment. I am terrified of the virus personally. We all have someone we care about that could lose their lives due to this. I wish those around me felt the same way and took it as seriously as I do. Guys at work are still thinking this is overblown and it won't affect them. Cases have been relatively low in Texas so far. I hope it stays that way but we have a ton of idiots that will probably see to it that we get our fair share. So there are some "trumpers" that take this seriously.
Then why in hell are still a 'trumper'? How many lies must a man tell before you recognize that he is just a sick twisted narcissistic fucktard? How many stupid statements must be say before you realise is a fool, and idiot, and just stupid, or he thinks you are; stuff like windmills cause cancer, rake the forests to prevent fires, etc.?
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
11,864
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sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,492
3,161
136
Just say no...let them roll the dice if they want.

ding ding ding.
That appears to be the the correct option and my only option.
And WTF... my sister my Trumpie sister, my WOOT I VOTED FOR TRUMP 2016, sister Is out tonight looking for places to shop. We use that life360 location app so I know where everyone is at any given time. All afternoon and into the evening my sis has been out and about shopping, or giving it a good shot trying to. And within the last 24 hours the infected rate rose by 88 just within our county. And surrounding counties are now witnessing skyrocketing new infection rates.
She is just asking for it, to be the first family member to get infected. And since all the restaurants are closed, she is planning to make dinner for everyone at my dads place on Wednesday. My dad who is 90. My dad who is high risk.
Oh the curse of a Trumpie family. Surrounded by insanity and risking death every day.
 

zzyzxroad

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2017
3,255
2,272
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Spain and Italy are likely going to hit ~20k each... so world-wide... this sounds like what you would expect.

But for just the US? Yeah, naw - this guy is overblowing it.
This a gut feeling or do you have some experience in these matters?
 
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zzyzxroad

Diamond Member
Jan 29, 2017
3,255
2,272
136
I think because they think everything is fake news. Also because the reality of it hasn't set in yet mostly because it's just something that is going on somewhere else, not here. Also they think climate change is a hoax. I really don't understand their thinking. Mostly they are pretty stupid.
Be safe and good luck. Do your best to pass your healthy amount of fear along to those less informed.