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Discussion Dr. Fauci was just asked the question on CNN....

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,338
3,007
126
If I may paraphrase the question -- If and when there is an"all clear" from this virus what will social distancing look like?
To which he answered -- Basically there will never be an "all clear"!


I have always thought that might be the case!
This is a huge wake up call for people like who are high risk and for the elderly in particular!
In fact it is a game changer!
I for one would predict that those us who are high risk or elderly or both that life will never be the same!
We will have to rapidly become proactive! Everyday will require possibly wearing protective items like gloves, masks....etc...
To everyone on these forums please stay safe and be considerate of others!!
Peace!!
 

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
77,555
10,552
126
Either that or some of us develop an immunity and the rest die off.
Planet earth will look very different then.
 

skyking

Lifer
Nov 21, 2001
19,208
909
136
Maybe we'll learn to practice better hygiene, at least those in the at risk groups. Touching surfaces and then your face is a bad habit and a vector. We all touch our faces too much.
 
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JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,338
3,007
126
Either that or some of us develop an immunity and the rest die off.
Planet earth will look very different then.
Sadly I can see that happnning! I have a feeling that when this virus has been around long enough that we say -- oh, you have the Corona Virus.......this planet IMO is already looking different!
Thank You for your thoughtful input!!
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
14,853
5,031
136
This. Effectiveness of a vaccine .. But since Fauci responds as he do I lean towards him thinking that a vaccine will only be as effective as a flu vaccine is vs. the flu and/or its effects will wither over time as it has been suggested natural protection will even if you have recovered from it yourself. And this is the fucked up part, cause then we got this killer virus with us from here on out. And that is fucked up. World about to change.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
70,710
20,070
136
This. Effectiveness of a vaccine .. But since Fauci responds as he do I lean towards him thinking that a vaccine will only be as effective as a flu vaccine is vs. the flu and/or its effects will wither over time as it has been suggested natural protection will even if you have recovered from it yourself. And this is the fucked up part, cause then we got this killer virus with us from here on out. And that is fucked up. World about to change.
Hmm, from what I have read it appears this virus is mutating slowly and so a vaccine for it should be relatively effective. As for how long the immunity will last I think their response has generally been that we don’t know.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
14,853
5,031
136
Hmm, from what I have read it appears this virus is mutating slowly and so a vaccine for it should be relatively effective. As for how long the immunity will last I think their response has generally been that we don’t know.
yea, I am just reading the good doc between the lines and extrapolating that to worst case. Best case scenario is the vaccine just flat out works and holds for a lifetime.
Further extrapolating on the worst case scenario, I see pathogen detection capable ventilators / air-con devices etc for use in malls, air ports hotels, antimicrobial copper alloy, door knobs handles etc.
 

skyking

Lifer
Nov 21, 2001
19,208
909
136
As I see it, everything will depend on the nature and quality of any vaccine that will be created. Polio used to terrify people.

There is also this: https://elifesciences.org/digests/45393/how-do-bacteria-defend-themselves-against-viruses?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvJjsmM7L6AIVDtVkCh2ncQp-EAAYAiAAEgIv8PD_BwE
Polio should still be terrifying people. Check this:
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
66,614
3,407
126
Hmm, from what I have read it appears this virus is mutating slowly and so a vaccine for it should be relatively effective. As for how long the immunity will last I think their response has generally been that we don’t know.
Hehe, I think that we project onto the virus exactly as we do everything else in the world just like we have projected into the darkness of night from our caves, the psychic content that we repress in the light.

The edges of old maps of the world that Columbus and others sailed out into were filled with dragons. It is our suppressed and absurd self hate that creates this sense of doom. Finally what we fear we deserve is here.

From where I stand, we need not give up hope. The laws of physics and chemistry, genetics, and immunology still apply. We are only at the beginning of our knowledge curve. It isn’t even remotely time to abandon hope. There is also worth going on to see if the platelets from the blood of those who have recovered from the virus hold answers to treat the actual disease. If so I would imagine work will proceed to synthesize the factors involved. Also, if such work is successful and the virus does mutate, we will just need to repeat the same process to cure the new strain.

One thing I hope for and even see signs of is that now that our whole way of life has been threatened by the scientifically and may I add liberally illiterate, more respect seems to be going to those in the know.

No better way to create what we fear than by electing a clown to manage a pandemic.

It has always been a race with humanity to see if what our fear of self awareness of our self hate would become a secondary fear to the monster ours world our fears will cause us to create. We just refuse to see that everything we fear has already happened, that it has passed and there if nothing to fear but the facts that come flooding in if we awaken.

Love hurts but it saves
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
66,614
3,407
126
Polio should still be terrifying people. Check this:
Yup, once only ‘the other’, the unimportant harbored the virus the West went to sleep and permitted pockets of the disease to fester. You have to be liberal to be generous and perspicacious and let them run things more than less.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
35,612
9,224
136
There isn't going to be an single "everything's good now" call.

Over time we will deploy ways to fight the infection (personal protection, rapid testing, surveillance, therapeutics, antibody drugs etc) eventually culminating in one or more viable vaccines.
 
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ShookKnight

Senior member
Dec 12, 2019
646
657
96
I don't think we'll ever be all clear, until a vaccine is created. But, even then, anti-vaxers will refuse and we'll have outbreaks like we did with the measles in the fall.

What do hope is that we take shit like this serious. Calling something like this a hoax should have been grounds for immediate removal.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
15,898
4,017
136
If I may paraphrase the question -- If and when there is an"all clear" from this virus what will social distancing look like?
To which he answered -- Basically there will never be an "all clear"!


I have always thought that might be the case!
This is a huge wake up call for people like who are high risk and for the elderly in particular!
In fact it is a game changer!
I for one would predict that those us who are high risk or elderly or both that life will never be the same!
We will have to rapidly become proactive! Everyday will require possibly wearing protective items like gloves, masks....etc...
To everyone on these forums please stay safe and be considerate of others!!
Peace!!
Won't relax until there is a vaccine.
 
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Zorba

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 1999
8,203
2,101
136
Hmm, from what I have read it appears this virus is mutating slowly and so a vaccine for it should be relatively effective. As for how long the immunity will last I think their response has generally been that we don’t know.
Apparently SARS and MERS have long lasting immunity, so there is no real reason to think COVID will be different. The body generally makes stronger immunity vs stronger viruses.
 

Zorba

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 1999
8,203
2,101
136
I would like to know why there isn't any real discussion about short cutting the vaccine trails. Why not got straight from phase 1 to phase 3. It seems like the risk benefit analysis definitely falls on the benefit side here, especially when you already have basic safety data from phase 1.

I do have a feeling there will be fairly widespread emergency useage while phase 3 is ongoing.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,998
6,524
136
I would like to know why there isn't any real discussion about short cutting the vaccine trails. Why not got straight from phase 1 to phase 3. It seems like the risk benefit analysis definitely falls on the benefit side here, especially when you already have basic safety data from phase 1.

I do have a feeling there will be fairly widespread emergency useage while phase 3 is ongoing.
The other day I read that Fauci's estimate of 12-18 months to develop a vaccine is questionable. Apparently, it typically takes 8-10 years to develop vaccines. The vaccines in the works right now are being accelerated. One is already in phase 1 clinical trials. Phase 2 trials might be skipped to move right on the phase 3. But the article said this timeline acceleration can affect both the safety and efficacy of the vaccine.
 

Zorba

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 1999
8,203
2,101
136
The other day I read that Fauci's estimate of 12-18 months to develop a vaccine is questionable. Apparently, it typically takes 8-10 years to develop vaccines. The vaccines in the works right now are being accelerated. One is already in phase 1 clinical trials. Phase 2 trials might be skipped to move right on the phase 3. But the article said this timeline acceleration can affect both the safety and efficacy of the vaccine.
Yes, it is being very accelerated, but that isn't the whole story. A ton of work was already done for SARS and MERS, the testing is being sped up, and money is being dumped onto the problem.

The 8-10 years is from the start of research, assuming a typical non-pandemic virus, and typical constrained funding and burocratic issues. Plus when you are a developing a vaccine for RSV or HPV the extreme risk avoidance during testing makes sense, since the risk of those deseases are already accepted by society.

On the flip side, the H1N1 vaccine was made in 6 months with zero testing before release. Obviously it had the benefit of decades of flu vaccine knowledge to be built on.

ETA: Even if the first vaccine was only 50% effective, that would still be a massive benefit right now.
 
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desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
5,291
70
91
The doctor on the Daily show said they had a vaccine in 2018 funding got cut so the never got to trial now it goes to trial he said 18 to complete the trials. Bill Gates also on the daily show said they are funding 7 vaccine production facilities for the ones currently in trail so when they get down to the two that actually work they will be ready to forge ahead with production.. Said it means wasting billions on the facilities that aren't necessary however NEXT pandemic we should have a measure of resiliency we didn't today
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
35,612
9,224
136
I do have a feeling there will be fairly widespread emergency useage while phase 3 is ongoing.
The pressure to do this with the better candidates is likely to be irresistible. There will not be a shortage of volunteers.
 
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JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,338
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Apparently SARS and MERS have long lasting immunity, so there is no real reason to think COVID will be different. The body generally makes stronger immunity vs stronger viruses.
ahahahhahahaaaaaa..ok...wishful thinking.....
 

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