Dow closes over 9000 for the first time in almost a year...
- Thread starter GoingUp
- Start date
That damn Bush. He's screwing up the economy again... Oh wait, nevermind.
What's the dems. gonna say when the economy has fully recovered?
What's the dems. gonna say when the economy has fully recovered?
I was wonderin that... it could recover by election time..... but a lot of people are still jobless, and that has to get better....
I graduate in 1.5 years, hopefully there will be a job waitin for me....
I graduate in 1.5 years, hopefully there will be a job waitin for me....
I have always heard the Dow is always six months behind or six months infront of any economic turn.. So in six months we'll be right in the middle of the 04 election.
Karl Rove is a political god. Love him or hate him he's the man.
I dont think Rove had anything to do with this recovery. But the way the tax cut was built will make raising taxes an issue in 2004. Rove gets credit for that.
Rove told the Pres. when to go for the tax cuts and how hard to push for them. I personally don' t think the pres. has anything to do with economics. No pres. does. But they can however use them for there advantage..
Now they'll be able to claim the recovery was all the republicans doing which will be a flat out lie but thats politics and most of the american public will believe them.
By the same token with 3 straight quarters of improving corperatate profits, I think it is not wise to say a recovery is not underway.
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
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Stock markets a joke, a grift from the middle class with almost forced contibutions to 401ks etc, then those in-the-know sell it and make a killing while mom and pop is left holding devalued paper, "jobs" are too, what with the white collar labor moving overseas...Invest in yourself, amass capital though laons and savings, find out what people want and give it too them.
I wish I was 20 again and so liquid. Originally posted by: Carbonyl
Stock markets a joke, a grift from the middle class with almost forced contibutions to 401ks etc, then those in-the-know sell it and make a killing while mom and pop is left holding devalued paper, "jobs" are too, what with the white collar labor moving overseas...Invest in yourself, amass capital though laons and savings, find out what people want and give it too them.
Since when are 401ks forced?
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
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Did'nt say it was.
Although the incentive is difficult to resist for many. What with matching funds up to 10% of salary and the deferred tax savings. I even still do it. Just hoping the match and tax savings I'll at least break even on what I put in. But I'm only in bond funds.
Although the incentive is difficult to resist for many. What with matching funds up to 10% of salary and the deferred tax savings. I even still do it. Just hoping the match and tax savings I'll at least break even on what I put in. But I'm only in bond funds.
Zebo
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- Jul 29, 2001
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Read an atrticle in WSJ where the economists did'nt even know what exactly to call it. Since 150000 jobs are being lost every month, the cost of capital exceeds return even at the hidiously low intrests rates, and the stock market is starting to show a pretty good rise, they remain dumbfounded.
Damn Carbonyl, I thought I was cynical when it came to the stock market. For individual investors the stock market is a big risk but it can also be rewarding. People become to stupid when it comes to the stock market though. I feel no pity for those idiots who spent all their money in the 90's on overpriced tech stocks only to lose it all.
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
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Look if you have a brother thats CFO of some publicly traded company go for it. If you believe in the companies financials go for it. If you believe in the companies product and market go for it. Prblem is the individual investor does'nt do this most of the time. He eiher entrusts some mutual or has rudementray knowledge and would be better served investing in himself, small scale. Start by building a house, start with a small franchise...etcetcetc all are predicated on your performance and not some unknown third party or crooked accountants. It simply amazes me how somepoeple entrust thier money to stangers. Oh well.
I agree with what you say though, ultimatly the blame lies on those who invest and not the grifters. It's just the enviroment has been created to foster this belief of never ending gains (just look at historical SP500
) and get rich quick. Well like all pyramid schemes they are bound to collapse with such an enviroment and as we saw the top dogs get rich while mom and pop saw thier retirment funds halved. I love these "new economists" theories of P/E ratios are not meaningful anymore. LOL Sounds like they guy questioning herbalife membership/distributor limits and told there's an infinite amount of people or is simply escorted out of the seminar.
I don't mean to drag this off topic, but folks, you've got to get some real info after you read this gloom and doom in the newspapers. Unemployment is bouncing around 6%. Historically, that is LOW. It's hard to find many sustained periods below 4.5%. Twenty years ago, it was 10.8% (December, 1982 - Merry Christmas) and it was tough but no disaster. France and Germany seem to have decided 10% is normal and they will just live with it.
We're in an ordinary economic cycle (note that ordinary doesn't mean predictable) that just happens to have nightmare timing for the Democratic Party. The slowdown started during Clintons last year in office and he didn't cause it. However, the Democrats have extended it due to denial during the 2000 campaign. Bush didn't cause it. I have mixed feelings on the effectiveness of his policies but all signs point to a recovery solidly in place for the 2004 campaign - in spite of anything the politicians do. The Democrats have made another incredible blunder - they've tagged Bush with responsibility for the economy when any economist would have told them the chances of the economy not recovering by 2004 (since the decline apparently started in 1999) were miniscule. Between opposition to the Iraq war and giving Bush credit for the economy, they have virtually guaranteed him re-election in 2004.
Excuse me, I have important things to do now. <Logs onto 401K site to check balance>
:brokenheart::camera::clock:
Schadenfroh
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- Mar 8, 2003
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Originally posted by: KenGr
I don't mean to drag this off topic, but folks, you've got to get some real info after you read this gloom and doom in the newspapers. Unemployment is bouncing around 6%. Historically, that is LOW. It's hard to find many sustained periods below 4.5%. Twenty years ago, it was 10.8% (December, 1982 - Merry Christmas) and it was tough but no disaster. France and Germany seem to have decided 10% is normal and they will just live with it.
We're in an ordinary economic cycle (note that ordinary doesn't mean predictable) that just happens to have nightmare timing for the Democratic Party. The slowdown started during Clintons last year in office and he didn't cause it. However, the Democrats have extended it due to denial during the 2000 campaign. Bush didn't cause it. I have mixed feelings on the effectiveness of his policies but all signs point to a recovery solidly in place for the 2004 campaign - in spite of anything the politicians do. The Democrats have made another incredible blunder - they've tagged Bush with responsibility for the economy when any economist would have told them the chances of the economy not recovering by 2004 (since the decline apparently started in 1999) were miniscule. Between opposition to the Iraq war and giving Bush credit for the economy, they have virtually guaranteed him re-election in 2004.
Excuse me, I have important things to do now. <Logs onto 401K site to check balance>
The US rates unemployment differently than the other nations of the world. If you are active in searching for a job, and dont have one, you are unemployed. If you are not searching, and do not hold a job, you are not unemployed. I think there are also other exceptions to the unemployment rate in the US
Vic
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- Jun 12, 2001
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This is true. The modern US way of caculating unemployment makes it artificially low. Other exceptions are if you are on public assistance, receiving social security (yet younger than 62) and/or disability, did not file for unemployment, or are in prison/jail (which is 2.5 million people). Essentially, the only people who are considered "unemployed" by the Dept of Labor are those who are actually collecting unenjoyment checks.
I mentioned this in a different thread but it seems to fit here.
Well, I for one do not see a good future in stocks at the moment. This is a wishful thinking rally. I do not know what world other investors live in, but in my world unemployment is high and jobs are hard to come buy, tons of people and companies are buried in debt, deficits are higher then ever and after funding the Iraq occupation I may be using $1 bills as toliet paper because of hyper inflation. To make matters worse, the Fed continues to lower interest rates preventing any deflation. Say what you want about deflation fears, but the effects of falling prices in rough times like these would do much more good than harm.
So, I see the Dow losing 1000 before the year is over.
On a final note, for those that hand pick stocks, there are always winners out there if you can find them.
jeremy806
Well, I for one do not see a good future in stocks at the moment. This is a wishful thinking rally. I do not know what world other investors live in, but in my world unemployment is high and jobs are hard to come buy, tons of people and companies are buried in debt, deficits are higher then ever and after funding the Iraq occupation I may be using $1 bills as toliet paper because of hyper inflation. To make matters worse, the Fed continues to lower interest rates preventing any deflation. Say what you want about deflation fears, but the effects of falling prices in rough times like these would do much more good than harm.
So, I see the Dow losing 1000 before the year is over.
On a final note, for those that hand pick stocks, there are always winners out there if you can find them.
jeremy806
I am not going to make predictions on the market, but this is the 3rd we have been at 9000 in the past year. However this time the economic indicators are generally much better than they have been. Corporate profit has been growing for the last 3 quarters. Unemployment is higher than it has been, but in the big picture the job market has been much worse.
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