Doomsday scenario plan would divide North Korea

[Pray To Jesus]

BBC

Chinese armies move south into the Korean peninsula and collide with American and South Korean forces moving north. The resulting clashes spark war between nuclear-armed superpowers.


A new report says such a confrontation is still a real danger in the event of a sudden collapse of the North Korean regime.



The report produced by the US research institute, the Rand Corporation, says that North Korea is a failing state that could fall apart at any moment.

Rand Corporation insists that the North Korean system is extremely brittle and could collapse with little warning.

It cites endemic economic problems and food shortages - even allowing for current signs of growing prosperity in the capital, Pyongyang. It says the regime's ability to keep the population ignorant of the outside world is being rapidly eroded, and points to reports of discontent within the military - including rumours of assassination attempts against the leadership.

A senior South Korean official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the government in Seoul was also deeply concerned about an abrupt collapse of North Korea - in the style of East Germany or the Soviet Union.

 

[Pray To Jesus]

Hmm how fast is fast?

 

[diesbudt]

Can we speed up the collapse of North Korea?

 

[palehorse]

OP, you need to add your own comment to the post to keep this thread from getting locked.

 

[JTsyo]

I don't see the US and China going nuclear over NK.

 

[Doppel]

Although the Information Age can make government tyranny easy to apply I think in NK's case its downfall will be brought by it. The place is amazingly backwards and when it falls the world will have of its people a huge case of domestic abuse to deal with.

 

[glenn1]

I don't see the US and China going nuclear over NK.

Yes, I can see the U.S. and China tripping over each other trying to occupy a failed state with tens of millions of starving citizens, no mineral or natural resources to speak of, and a primitive economy that produces almost nothing of export value. It's kinda like Somalia, only filled with a brainwashed populace that hero worships Kim Jong Il instead of sea pirates who are also khat-chewing Muslim extremists. And you can see how much China and the U.S. have almost come to blows trying to wrest control of Somalia from one another.

 

[IronWing]

I don't see the US and China going nuclear over NK.

You take it.
No, you take it.
We really think you should take it.
Liberate them already, we insist.
Take it before we nuke you!

 

[networkman]

I also don't see China & the US fighting over taking control of North Korea; there might well be concern over control of their nuclear armaments, but not the country itself.

The usual humanitarian needs will present themselves with the logistics of how to provide said aid needing to be addressed, which will invite the UN into the picture. But I don't see the US rushing in from the south for two reasons: a) our insignificant number of forces present in the south, and b) the little matter of the DMZ and the vast minefields between the North & South.

 

[bignateyk]

Why the hell would China and US fight over NK? The country is a shithole with nothing a value whatsoever.

 

[brycejones]

Why the hell would China and US fight over NK? The country is a shithole with nothing a value whatsoever.

OP must still think its 1953 and we're fighting the godless heathens in Red China.

 

[Jaskalas]

There will be a lot of room for brushing up against each other over Korea, but ultimately all that land should belong to South Korea.

 

[Scotteq]

There will be a lot of room for brushing up against each other over Korea, but ultimately all that land should belong to South Korea.

Unification costs would be staggering - hundreds of billions. If we look to Germany - two decades +, the East is still underdeveloped, North Korea is in much worse shape than East Germany was, and Germany has had a Much stronger economy than South Korea.

I should think that Seoul fears reunification just as much as (if not more than) they wish it.

 

[OCGuy]

We already fought the Chinese over Korea, I don't think it will be happening again.

Taiwan, or any number of disputed islands in the South China Sea, are much more likely sparks to a shooting match.

 

[IronWing]

We already fought the Chinese over Korea, I don't think it will be happening again.

They'd have to loan us the money. It would be awkward.

 

[Fayd]

if we believe the wikileaks cables, china wants a unified korea as well. they don't want unstable dictatorships on their borders any more than south korea.

 

[werepossum]

You take it.
No, you take it.
We really think you should take it.
Liberate them already, we insist.
Take it before we nuke you!

LOL +1

I also don't see China & the US fighting over taking control of North Korea; there might well be concern over control of their nuclear armaments, but not the country itself.

The usual humanitarian needs will present themselves with the logistics of how to provide said aid needing to be addressed, which will invite the UN into the picture. But I don't see the US rushing in from the south for two reasons: a) our insignificant number of forces present in the south, and b) the little matter of the DMZ and the vast minefields between the North & South.

Yes, rushing into anything through vast minefields is generally contraindicated. Although we DO have many airplanes which could fly over the DMZ and land at any of the many modern airports that North Korea has ---

Sorry, I was unable to finish typing that with a straight face.

They'd have to loan us the money. It would be awkward.

+2

 

[piasabird]

South Korea would accept North Korea. What makes you think South Korea does not have nukes? I think a lot of the people in North Korea would side with anyone who has some rice in a bowl. They only support the government because if they don't they are sent to a death camp. There are thousands of north Koreans defecting to South Korea every year! They escape through the north.

 

[Kadarin]

Hmm how fast is fast?

Once the Soviet Union started to collapse, it was pretty sudden.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

They'd have to loan us the money. It would be awkward.

:thumbsup: Good one! Thanks for the laugh!

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Damn. My daughter and her family are moving to South Korea soon (son-in-law flies an F-16). I hate this shit.

 

[zinfamous]

You take it.
No, you take it.
We really think you should take it.
Liberate them already, we insist.
Take it before we nuke you!

pretty much.

I think it basically amounts to US/China shaking hands with South Korea, wishing them luck, and getting the fuck out forever.