No, he has zero chance of beating Obama. You might not realize it from internet forums, but his policies are spectacularly unpopular with Americans as a whole.
He wants to basically end the war on drugs. I agree with this, but it's political suicide.
He doesn't believe in evolution. (lolwut)
He wants to abolish Medicare. (instant political death)
He wants to abolish Social Security. (instant political death)
He wants to return to the gold standard or something similar. (maybe not instant political death, but a horrible idea)
etc, etc.
He mixes a few good ideas with a whole load of completely insane and unworkable ones. He's free to hold these because he never has to worry about actually being elected and so we don't have to worry about suffering the consequences of his awful policies. If he were actually in a position where he might hold real power, he would moderate and abandon the unwavering stance that people admire him so much for. (either that, or just be a completely ineffective president)