Do you expect Congress to vote for a FY2012 budget over $2.8T? $3T?

[Anarchist420]

The FY2011 budget is $~3.8T, but the Republicans will take back Congress, so I'm thinking they maybe won't pass the FY2012 budget if it's over 3T.

I'm hopeful that the federal debt won't exceed 13.7T before Obama's first term is over, since taxes are going up and the Democrats won't control Congress anymore.

It's currently 13T, but taxes are going to be even higher (a 2% VAT would bring in about 200B [assuming that 2/3 of the GDP is purchased], the SS tax revenue should go up due to a higher cap, and the income tax revenue should go up 10% from FY2010 due to 39.6% after 250k [it's currently 35% after ~380k]), so revenues should go up about 15% (to ~2.76T) at least and the Republicans are going to be elected by the people to vote against a budget if it exceeds 3.0T.

 

[Genx87]

Even if Republicans take back congress I dont expect them to stop the spending. The problem is nearly 70% of that budget is set to auto-increment at 3-5% or more. There is literally nothing unless the congress modifies these entitlements can do to stop that. So that leaves us with discretionary spending. You think republicans will gut defense spending?

The only thing Republicans can honestly do unless they grow balls and modify entitlements is try to slow or stop new funding programs.

 

[MotF Bane]

The Repubs will change nothing.

 

[Patranus]

I'm hopeful that the federal debt won't exceed 13.7T before Obama's first term is over, since taxes are going up and the Democrats won't control Congress anymore.

Well the federal debt is at 13.073 trillion right now and it took Obama 18 months to go from 10 trillion to 13 trillion so it looks like the debt (if spending continues on its current pace) will be 18 trillion at the end of Obamas first term.

If it took 18 months to rise 3 trillion do you really think it wont raise another 0.7 trillion in the next 30 months?

 

[BoberFett]

First, the Democrats will probably maintain the majority for now, even if it's just a slim majority. So the Republicans aren't gonna do a damn thing.

Second, does anyone else find it amusing that Democrats who say corporations have too much power have no qualms handing the federal government trillions of dollars and expecting them to behave? The US government is bigger than the top 10 corporations combined, but somehow Johnny Democrat thinks that he can control the beast with his little vote. It's adorable and pathetic at the same time.

 

[khon]

I actually expect the deficit to go up if Republicans win back the house (which I don't think they will).

The reason is fairly simple. They won't have the guts to touch major entitlements like medicare and social security, and they certainly won't touch the military budget. That leaves only minor budget cuts at best, and if you combine it with the tax cuts the Republicans would almost certainly pass ....

 

[khon]

Forgot to add one thing people always overlook, which is that the budget is passed one year in advance. So FY2010 was the first one signed by Obama, and FY2013 will be the first one passed by the new congress.

People tend to ignore that because it allows them to blame Obama for the big increase from FY2008 to FY2009, even though both were actually passed before he took office.

 

[piasabird]

I dont think the deficeit can get much larger unless taxes are increased and tax exemptions are deleted. A lot of the deficiet is short term loans that are all coming due. Failure to pay the short term loans or refinance them into long-term debt, would result in a default status. So debt accumulation has to stop it will be halted as we go into default and the entire world economy will crumble. In fact it is only a little ways off from defaulting the entire planet.

 

[Anarchist420]

There's a ton of discretionary spending (in addition to the military) that the Republicans should vote to reduce to 1/3 or 2/5 of what it is (particularly the DoState, the Treasury budget, DoEdu and Energy, and Health and Human Services). About 250B could be cut from those and a few other discretionary programs combined. OTOH, like GenX says, the required increase in mandatory would cancel that 250B out.

That's assuming the Repubs take back the house, but I think they will, even though it's a ton of seats.

I would rather just see taxes go up than the debt go up.

 

[blackangst1]

Debt and deficits aside, the short answer is no. The federal budget has not gone down from one year to the next since 1932. It aint gonna happen now. Also, the current crop of Republicans (as a whole) arent any different in regards to entitlement spending:

 

[dammitgibs]

The saga continues...

 

[manimal]

To seriously expect republicans to lower spending is to not look at history. If you add both the bush tax cuts what do they amount to? A far larger sum than the entire stimulus and so call bail outs during the worst financial disaster since the great depressing. To look at the spending of the last three years-yes bush started the stimulus-and not take into account the drastic actions taken to avert disaster is like reading only half the book and only hearing every other word. Take a larger view when discussing macro economics-

If we decreased the size of the military by one half we would still have the largest military in the world 10 times over. Why does both the air-force and navy have more planes than any other nation in the world?

Entitlements are not going to go away any time soon. Can you imagine the riots if social security was going to go away? If we ended both the wars cut military spending and subsidizing various countries defense-japan I am looking at you-then maybe we would have some breathing room to pay off some debt.

 

[soccerballtux]

The FY2011 budget is $~3.8T, but the Republicans will take back Congress, so I'm thinking they maybe won't pass the FY2012 budget if it's over 3T.

I'm hopeful that the federal debt won't exceed 13.7T before Obama's first term is over, since taxes are going up and the Democrats won't control Congress anymore.

It's currently 13T, but taxes are going to be even higher (a 2% VAT would bring in about 200B [assuming that 2/3 of the GDP is purchased], the SS tax revenue should go up due to a higher cap, and the income tax revenue should go up 10% from FY2010 due to 39.6% after 250k [it's currently 35% after ~380k]), so revenues should go up about 15% (to ~2.76T) at least and the Republicans are going to be elected by the people to vote against a budget if it exceeds 3.0T.

the workers getting taxed for the social security, consumers for the VAT, and income tax increases on working citizens (Obama letting Bush's tax cuts expire), means less money in the hand of every American, which means they can't participate in the economy as much.

In other words it just depresses economic growth.

The solution is to cut government and cut taxes, in that order. Republicans just cut taxes, wrong answer, gotta cut government too.

 

[soccerballtux]

Well the federal debt is at 13.073 trillion right now and it took Obama 18 months to go from 10 trillion to 13 trillion so it looks like the debt (if spending continues on its current pace) will be 18 trillion at the end of Obamas first term.

If it took 18 months to rise 3 trillion do you really think it wont raise another 0.7 trillion in the next 30 months?

jeez 18T.

 

[ProfJohn]

Forgot to add one thing people always overlook, which is that the budget is passed one year in advance. So FY2010 was the first one signed by Obama, and FY2013 will be the first one passed by the new congress.

People tend to ignore that because it allows them to blame Obama for the big increase from FY2008 to FY2009, even though both were actually passed before he took office.

Actually the 2009 budget is Obama's because of two things.

1. Sensing that they were going to win the White House the Democrats who controlled congress refused to pass a budget for 2009 and instead just keep passing continuing resolutions to keep government running until Obama took office.

2. A large part of the 2009 deficit was caused by the stimulus which is 100% Obama and the Democrats.

 

[IGBT]

and with it your obama will kill off the home mortgage deduction to enhance tax collections.

 

[manimal]

Actually the 2009 budget is Obama's because of two things.

1. Sensing that they were going to win the White House the Democrats who controlled congress refused to pass a budget for 2009 and instead just keep passing continuing resolutions to keep government running until Obama took office.

2. A large part of the 2009 deficit was caused by the stimulus which is 100% Obama and the Democrats.

Do you really think everything would have been fine if they did nothing? How do you feel about the Bush tax cuts? They were far from budget neutral and created the mess were in. How about the facts that half of the stimulus was tax cuts? Current tax rates is lower than it was under Bush and lower than it was under the savior of mankind Reagen.

So are were doing the right thing by leaving money in the pockets of people so they can spend it in our economy?

 

[heyheybooboo]

Actually the 2009 budget is Obama's because of two things.

1. Sensing that they were going to win the White House the Democrats who controlled congress refused to pass a budget for 2009 and instead just keep passing continuing resolutions to keep government running until Obama took office.

2. A large part of the 2009 deficit was caused by the stimulus which is 100% Obama and the Democrats.

Is that why the US ran up $1.44 trillion in debt the last year Bush was in office ??

You Fail (horribly), Johnnie.





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