Do Stacey Abrams/black voters deserve credit for Biden’s win?

[UNCjigga]

Legit question based on NY Times reporting. Don’t get me wrong—I’m a big fan of Abrams and her work and would love to see ALL groups increasing turnout numbers and participating in our elections.

But, here’s what actually happened in Georgia:


If anything, it seems that areas with 80%+ black population or majority Hispanic actually shifted support towards Trump. In other areas with majority black population, support for Biden over Hillary only went up by 1 point (or even less in urban areas like Atlanta.)

Furthermore, “the Black share of the electorate declined once again in Georgia, according to authoritative vote history data from the secretary of state. Black voters represented just over 27 percent of the electorate, down from 27.7 percent in 2016 and down from nearly 30 percent when Barack Obama was on the ballot in 2012.”

In terms of actual voters, more Black people voted than in any other election, but the turnout gains were larger for all other groups, so vote share went down.

Surprised? I know I am.

Detailed Turnout Data Shows How Georgia Turned Blue (Published 2020)

Huge gains in the Atlanta suburbs make up for a decline in the Black share of the electorate.

www.nytimes.com

 

[interchange]

Stacey Abrams has a much broader appeal than within her race. I believe she made significant change in shifting Georgians who believe in her and in putting attention on activities to disenfranchise voters. Thankfully, ending institutional racism is an aim which is supported by more than the targets of that racism.

Was she instrumental for Biden's win? In Georgia perhaps. Things have been shifting blue over time, though.

 

[K1052]

Yeah I think viewing her appeal and efforts solely along racial lines is probably a mistake.

Also WRT more black people voting this is not inconsequential:

In terms of actual voters, more Black people voted than in any other election

 

[eelw]

No Trumpity Dumpity is the one that deserves credit for Biden winning. He turned off enough Republicans to vote democrat. If it was Democrats that were responsible for the win, then they would have flipped the Senate and even bigger blue wave in the house that 2018

 

[Amused]

Legit question based on NY Times reporting. Don’t get me wrong—I’m a big fan of Abrams and her work and would love to see ALL groups increasing turnout numbers and participating in our elections.

But, here’s what actually happened in Georgia:
View attachment 34106

If anything, it seems that areas with 80%+ black population or majority Hispanic actually shifted support towards Trump. In other areas with majority black population, support for Biden over Hillary only went up by 1 point (or even less in urban areas like Atlanta.)

Furthermore, “the Black share of the electorate declined once again in Georgia, according to authoritative vote history data from the secretary of state. Black voters represented just over 27 percent of the electorate, down from 27.7 percent in 2016 and down from nearly 30 percent when Barack Obama was on the ballot in 2012.”

In terms of actual voters, more Black people voted than in any other election, but the turnout gains were larger for all other groups, so vote share went down.

Surprised? I know I am.

Detailed Turnout Data Shows How Georgia Turned Blue (Published 2020)

Huge gains in the Atlanta suburbs make up for a decline in the Black share of the electorate.

www.nytimes.com

What this fails to account for is increase in numbers of registered voters.

While blacks went +1 dem statistically, there were nearly a million more just in GA than the last election.

Georgia Sees Surge In Black Voter Turnout

NPR's Audie Cornish talks with Politico reporter Maya King about high voting turnout in Georgia, especially among the state's Black residents.

www.npr.org

 

[HomerJS]

Being one I don't have a clue what would have made his support among black people go up.

 

[K1052]

No Trumpity Dumpity is the one that deserves credit for Biden winning. He turned off enough Republicans to vote democrat. If it was Democrats that were responsible for the win, then they would have flipped the Senate and even bigger blue wave in the house that 2018

Even some Republicans admit they got caught napping by her and should not have after 2018 given the direction the state is tilting.

 

[K1052]

Being one I don't have a clue what would have made his support among black people go up.

Younger black males seem more open to his appeals than the rest of the group AFAIK. Black seniors on the other hand would fire him into the sun in a nanosecond.

 

[jameny5]

I think you are talking about voters, Blacks and Rep. James Clyburn in South Carolina invigorated and rejuvenated Biden's campaign. They gave him a jolt and catapulted him ahead of his Presidential contenders That set off a chain reaction that led to him winning the primaries and the Presidency! Stephanie Abrams did her thing on Georgia with the help of others to flip the state Blue. She does deserve accolades for her efforts. And lastly, Biden's win comes from other types of voters - not just Black voters. They were pivotal but there were other voters who contributed to his win!

 

[cytg111]

Being one I don't have a clue what would have made his support among black people go up.

The support were already there he just managed to mobilize them this time.
Also, lets not put men and women in the same basket here. Apparently something is wrong with the Y chromosome. In that -0.5 you will probably have +5% women and -5.5% men in there.

 

[Homerboy]

I started a post earlier about how voter demographics are compiled. nobody really had any feedback

Question on Voter Demographic numbers and how they are compiled

I was wondering exactly how the voter demographics are compiled after the election. From what I've been able to Google, it seems to be done mostly, if not entirely, by exit polls on the day of the election. So it's just voters being asked questions as they leave the voting booths? I saw there's...

forums.anandtech.com

If the demographics are compiled via simple exit polls, then the demographics this year have to be WAY out of whack

 

[Sunburn74]

What this fails to account for is increase in numbers of registered voters.

While blacks went +1 dem statistically, there were nearly a million more just in GA than the last election.

Georgia Sees Surge In Black Voter Turnout

NPR's Audie Cornish talks with Politico reporter Maya King about high voting turnout in Georgia, especially among the state's Black residents.

www.npr.org

Yes. I think this tells the actual story. You should also compare the margin of difference in vote counts. 2016 trump (50-45% and by 200K plus votes).

Certainly a million additonal black voters largely voting 80% against him is a key reason why Georgia turned. Similarly in Michigan this year.

Whether they would have voted anyway, you never know but Biden has no shot without those votes.

 

[zinfamous]

Can we find a way to blame a Biden win on conservatives?

You know, pretty much how conservatives blame everything that conservatives vote on as the fault of democrats?

 

[nickqt]

Abrams was working with everyone to get everyone registered and educated on how to vote. Not just one group or another. Everyone.

Looking at percentages of groups that increased or decreased since 2016 isn't really relevant, compared to the actual number of voters.

If more people voted in 2020 than 2016, then Abrams probably had at least some role in that turnout. Given the MOV being 14,000-ish votes, then she may be partially or totally responsible for getting just enough Democratic voters to the polls to flip it.

 

[manly]

Abrams was working with everyone to get everyone registered and educated on how to vote. Not just one group or another. Everyone.

Looking at percentages of groups that increased or decreased since 2016 isn't really relevant, compared to the actual number of voters.

If more people voted in 2020 than 2016, then Abrams probably had at least some role in that turnout. Given the MOV being 14,000-ish votes, then she may be partially or totally responsible for getting just enough Democratic voters to the polls to flip it.

By all accounts, Abrams had a key role in GA voter registrations after the previous SoS (and current Gov.) culled the voter rolls for purely political reasons.

Having said that, I think it's a misleading narrative when it's shouted from rooftops that Black voters in Philly/Detroit/Atlanta saved our national bacon. The turnout numbers speak for themselves (even if the % margin closed), but the demographic that noticeably shifted away from Trump were white males. To be clear, I'm not saying that white males are responsible for flipping the Blue wall. Within a competitive election, every vote counts, and it's reductive to say one class of voters carried the day.

If you accept the argument that Black voters rebuilt the Blue wall and also flipped Georgia, you'd also have to concede that their staying home in 2016 was a primary cause of Hillary losing. This has been discussed before (538 has an article), but it's a sensitive topic that nobody really wants to broach. It's a lot easier to say Hillary was a crap candidate who ran a crap campaign, and Jim Comey sealed her fate in the final stretch. All of these factors can be simultaneously true.

 

[nickqt]

By all accounts, Abrams had a key role in GA voter registrations after the previous SoS (and current Gov.) culled the voter rolls for purely political reasons.

Having said that, I think it's a misleading narrative when it's shouted from rooftops that Black voters in Philly/Detroit/Atlanta saved our national bacon. The turnout numbers speak for themselves (even if the % margin closed), but the demographic that noticeably shifted away from Trump were white males. To be clear, I'm not saying that white males are responsible for flipping the Blue wall. Within a competitive election, every vote counts, and it's reductive to say one class of voters carried the day.

If you accept the argument that Black voters rebuilt the Blue wall and also flipped Georgia, you'd also have to concede that their staying home in 2016 was a primary cause of Hillary losing. This has been discussed before (538 has an article), but it's a sensitive topic that nobody really wants to broach. It's a lot easier to say Hillary was a crap candidate who ran a crap campaign, and Jim Comey sealed her fate in the final stretch. All of these factors can be simultaneously true.

I think the reason why we can go with the widely-accepted notion that black voters are the Democratic base and the reason why the Democratic Party is able to win elections, is because their ratios of voting for Democrats to Republicans is so high.

Is there another segment of the voting population that votes Democrat more reliably? If not, then I'd say that it's not misleading to say that their extremely strong and reliable support is the major reason that Democrats win elections.

Or to put it another way, the black vote may have shifted away from Biden by 0.5% or whatever, but the sheer numbers alone still pushed Biden over the edge.

 

[manly]

I think the reason why we can go with the widely-accepted notion that black voters are the Democratic base and the reason why the Democratic Party is able to win elections, is because their ratios of voting for Democrats to Republicans is so high.

Is there another segment of the voting population that votes Democrat more reliably? If not, then I'd say that it's not misleading to say that their extremely strong and reliable support is the major reason that Democrats win elections.

Or to put it another way, the black vote may have shifted away from Biden by 0.5% or whatever, but the sheer numbers alone still pushed Biden over the edge.

I agree that Black voters are a bedrock of Democratic support, and Biden doesn't win swing states if Black voters didn't come out. My point is that a Black voter for Biden or white male voter who flipped to Biden, or a Trump voter who decided to stay home all have the same net effect. Maybe that is merely theoretical, but 80% of the electorate in Michigan is white. I did the math for MI, and Joe Biden got about 600k more white voters than Hillary Clinton did. That easily covers the margin of victory.

But more to the point, if one makes the bold claim that Black voters in these 3 big cities swung the entire national election, then you'd also have to admit not voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016 was just as culpable. Instead, the narrative of 2016 mainly tends to be that uneducated white voters coalesced around Trump for various reasons, and that Hillary was a shit candidate who depressed her own party's voters.

 

[nickqt]

I agree that Black voters are a bedrock of Democratic support, and Biden doesn't win swing states if Black voters didn't come out. My point is that a Black voter for Biden or white male voter who flipped to Biden, or a Trump voter who decided to stay home all have the same net effect. Maybe that is merely theoretical, but 80% of the electorate in Michigan is white. I did the math for MI, and Joe Biden got about 600k more white voters than Hillary Clinton did. That easily covers the margin of victory.

But more to the point, if one makes the bold claim that Black voters in these 3 big cities swung the entire national election, then you'd also have to admit not voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016 was just as culpable. Instead, the narrative of 2016 mainly tends to be that uneducated white voters coalesced around Trump for various reasons, and that Hillary was a shit candidate who depressed her own party's voters.

I mean, it always comes down to the actual numbers of ballots counted. A vote for Trump is essentially the same as a vote for Zombie Washington/Space Jesus, or staying at home and binge watching Storage wars, when it comes down to the count for Biden. Ultimately, either you vote for one of the two candidates who can win, or your vote is hilariously and tragically irrelevant. Which is why all Americans and all political parties should enact Ranked Choice Voting ASAP.

I'm not 100% for certain that it was only increased black turnout that swung Georgia, but it may have been. I live in Georgia and I vote every election. I think a lot of factors made this election have high turnout. Abrams definitely helped, and I'd assume that almost every additional vote she brought in went to Biden.

All of that said, Clinton was a "shit" candidate because the Republican Smear Machine had been throwing everything they possibly could at her for over 20 years. She was clearly 3-4 astronomical units more qualified than Trump, which anyone with a functioning brain would have observed and acted upon.

 

[darkswordsman17]

This thread is fucking stupid and OP you should be ashamed for making it. This is, certainly more intelligent based, but the base idea is outright as stupid as the threads right wingers keep making on here.

 

[jameny5]

By all accounts, Abrams had a key role in GA voter registrations after the previous SoS (and current Gov.) culled the voter rolls for purely political reasons.

Having said that, I think it's a misleading narrative when it's shouted from rooftops that Black voters in Philly/Detroit/Atlanta saved our national bacon. The turnout numbers speak for themselves (even if the % margin closed), but the demographic that noticeably shifted away from Trump were white males. To be clear, I'm not saying that white males are responsible for flipping the Blue wall. Within a competitive election, every vote counts, and it's reductive to say one class of voters carried the day.

If you accept the argument that Black voters rebuilt the Blue wall and also flipped Georgia, you'd also have to concede that their staying home in 2016 was a primary cause of Hillary losing. This has been discussed before (538 has an article), but it's a sensitive topic that nobody really wants to broach. It's a lot easier to say Hillary was a crap candidate who ran a crap campaign, and Jim Comey sealed her fate in the final stretch. All of these factors can be simultaneously true.

I can agree with your statement with Black voters staying home in 2016. You have to look at it this way: There wasn't a Black candidate to ramp up excitement for Black voters and Trump and his goons in the GOP sullied her name. Two big reasons Hillary lost! Comey knew what he was doing. I wouldn't be surprised if he met with the GOP to plot Hillary's downfall. It certainly looked that way... Comey had some intentions by disclosing that second laptop. What they were is anybody's guess. In his book it seemed like he was saying that he was only doing his job. To him it looked that way. But, to others I'm not sure. I don't think he has fully come clean with his motives. I guess as he ages and matures down the line - he'll cave and spill the beans!

 

[darkswordsman17]

No Trumpity Dumpity is the one that deserves credit for Biden winning. He turned off enough Republicans to vote democrat. If it was Democrats that were responsible for the win, then they would have flipped the Senate and even bigger blue wave in the house that 2018

No he didn't, and your logic is ass backwards. Republicans turned out big time.

If you want to see a candidate that fits your description look at Romney in 2012.

 

[jameny5]

I wouldn't pardon Trump either. Obama didn't pardon Hillary. Trump's crimes were more egregious. He overstepped his power in the White House and the judiciary. I can't see him getting exonerated and leaving the office and judiciary damaged without consequences and for years to come. We can't let generations think that we let a King, authoritarian, and dictator get away with crimes and over step his power and the Constitution.

 

[darkswordsman17]

Stacey Abrams has a much broader appeal than within her race. I believe she made significant change in shifting Georgians who believe in her and in putting attention on activities to disenfranchise voters. Thankfully, ending institutional racism is an aim which is supported by more than the targets of that racism.

Was she instrumental for Biden's win? In Georgia perhaps. Things have been shifting blue over time, though.

Without black people pushing for it though that doesn't happen. African Americans, Native Americans, and women deserve almost perpetual credit for progress in America as they're almost always the ones actually catalyzing it. If not for them pointing out the fucked up stuff and putting their lives on the line fighting for it to change, I'm not sure we wouldn't be Nazi level white supremacist dominated.

 

[woolfe9998]

deleted

 

[jameny5]

Is this a Donald Trump moment? The last part of your comment was some "incoherent" mumbo jumbo like Trump spews. Can you clean the last part up? Thanks in advance! @woolfe9998. That was the fastest deletion I have seen in my ten years or so on Tapatalk. Thank God the feds weren't coming!