DJIC - The Dow Jones Industrial Clusterf***

[Acanthus]

Preliminary numbers are showing a 2%-3% sales gain for black friday. While that seems like good news you also have to consider the enormous price slashing it took to get people in the stores, and if the pace can be maintained.

I know personally my holiday shopping is nearly over. My shopping for others was almost entirely deals that involved 50%+ price cuts.

There is a blizzard of financial news about to hit us this week that could give us a roller coaster ride...

Monday:
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases what is expected to be a grim report on manufacturing in the morning. November ISM is expected to fall to a 26-year low of 38, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com, versus a reading of 38.9 in October.
Construction spending likely fell in October, with economists expecting the government report to decline by 0.9% after it fell by 0.3% in September.

Also on Monday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will give a speech on the markets and economy at the Fortune 500 forum in Washington.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also speaking Monday. He will be in Texas, talking about the Fed's policies in the financial crisis at the meeting of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce.

Tuesday:
The automakers have until Tuesday to submit proposals for how they would use $25 billion in taxpayer money to make their companies "viable."
The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing next Friday on the proposals and the Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a hearing sometime during the week too.

Separately Tuesday, monthly auto and truck sales figures for November will be released during the normal trading session. October auto sales were the weakest in 25 years. (Full story)

Wednesday:
The ISM releases its report on the services sector of the economy. The November services sector index is expected to fall to 42.6 from 44.4 in October.

Payroll services firm ADP releases its report on private sector employment in November, ahead of the big national report Friday. Employers are expected to have cut 173,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 157,000 jobs in October.

Also, the revised reading on third-quarter productivity is due in the morning, while the Fed's "Beige Book" reading on the economy is due in the afternoon.

Thursday:
Factory orders are expected to have fallen 2.7% in October, when the government releases its report in the morning. Orders fell 2.5% in September.

The weekly jobless claims report is due in the morning, as well as November sales from the nation's retailers. October sales were disastrous as retailers continue to struggle with attracting consumers in an economic downturn. (Full story)

Also, before the market opens, luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL, Fortune 500) is slated to release its quarterly financial report. Toll gave a glimpse into its state of affairs in early November, when it said revenue dropped 41% but also noted it had enough cash on hand to weather the turmoil.

Bernanke is scheduled to speak about housing and housing finance in Washington, D.C., at the President's Conference on Homeownership and Mortgage Initiative.

Friday:
The November jobs report is released in the morning. Employers are expected to have cut 300,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 240,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 6.8% from 6.5% in the previous month.

Sources:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/2...postversion=2008113007
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/2...ditcrisis.ap/index.htm
https://www.etrade.wallst.com/...ast%20year&refSymbols=">e-trade (requires login)</a>

 

[senseamp]

I only bought an Express 1MX shirt for $20. I like it though. As far as toys, I am trying to get rid of junk, not buy more

 

[Acanthus]

I think im going to sit on my hands this week and just hold what i have. Unless opportunity knocks of course.

I need Xanax every time i watch the market.

 

[Double Trouble]

This is going to be scary as heck. Things could turn a heck of a lot uglier with the economy in a huge hurry. No amount of magic bailouts is going to fix it if things go south.

 

[blackangst1]

Didnt we lay out a doomsday scenario months ago?

 

[Acanthus]

Originally posted by: blackangst1
Didnt we lay out a doomsday scenario months ago?

Im certainly not trying to convey this as doom and gloom.

It's a series of bad news that could stomp confidence out of the market once again this week. Im personally hoping it just erases last weeks gains and nothing more.

 

[TallBill]

This may be bad news, but it isn't unanticipated bad news. If the numbers were worse, then perhaps there will be a slide, but numbers are on par or even better then most projections. Plus most of the scared sellers already dumped their stocks.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Acanthus

Originally posted by: blackangst1
Didnt we lay out a doomsday scenario months ago?

Im certainly not trying to convey this as doom and gloom.

It's a series of bad news that could stomp confidence out of the market once again this week. Im personally hoping it just erases last weeks gains and nothing more.

OK....didnt we have bad news months ago? Why is NOW so different than all the other doom and gloom threads?

 

[cliftonite]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Acanthus

Originally posted by: blackangst1
Didnt we lay out a doomsday scenario months ago?

Im certainly not trying to convey this as doom and gloom.

It's a series of bad news that could stomp confidence out of the market once again this week. Im personally hoping it just erases last weeks gains and nothing more.

OK....didnt we have bad news months ago? Why is NOW so different than all the other doom and gloom threads?

If you didnt like the thread why post in it?

 

[brxndxn]

I think the Black Friday numbers are gonna make the stock market shoot up.. and the stock market shooting up will make the oil price shoot up.. and the dollar will gain slightly still..

And then people will start talking about hyperinflation again..

All from M-F next week...

 

[Thump553]

Dow has been undergoing a bear market rally since last Friday-very rapid rise on pretty low volume. This one is bound to plunge back down relatively soon-the only questions are which day this week and how far it will fall.

BTW, CBS was reporting a 7% increase for Black Friday sales over a year ago. I went to two stores (Staples and Cabelas) and noone I could see shopping was buying anything but the items that were on sale.

 

[Acanthus]

Originally posted by: Thump553
Dow has been undergoing a bear market rally since last Friday-very rapid rise on pretty low volume. This one is bound to plunge back down relatively soon-the only questions are which day this week and how far it will fall.

BTW, CBS was reporting a 7% increase for Black Friday sales over a year ago. I went to two stores (Staples and Cabelas) and noone I could see shopping was buying anything but the items that were on sale.

Wow @ 7%, the 3 sources i read from all said 2-3%.

 

[Acanthus]

Ugh, it looks like the market agrees this morning.

 

[Acanthus]

The ISM report for Nov. is in, and its worse than expected by analysts.

36.2

 

[Thump553]

Looks like I either heard CBS wrong or they got it wrong, because every other source I've seen since then agrees with the 2-3% figure.

Today's dip in the market is probably the inevitable profit taking from the recent multiple day rally plus a depression in energy related stocks due to announced OPEC inaction. But we are still in a very volatile bear market. It is neither normal or healthy for a market to gain 10%+/- in a few days on anything but the most extreme news.

 

[StageLeft]

Factory orders are expected to have fallen 2.7% in October, when the government releases its report in the morning. Orders fell 2.5% in September.

That's about the scariest number I see (and it is). I had considered last week after the rallying to move some more into bonds. Perhaps I should have, but who knows. I want to be in stocks when we hit bottom. Hopefully that's soon (I know the recession will be long, but by bottom I mean things just stop getting worse), but clearly there's no way to tell so I won't play around each week moving crap around because it would be shooting in the dark.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: cliftonite

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Acanthus

Originally posted by: blackangst1
Didnt we lay out a doomsday scenario months ago?

Im certainly not trying to convey this as doom and gloom.

It's a series of bad news that could stomp confidence out of the market once again this week. Im personally hoping it just erases last weeks gains and nothing more.

OK....didnt we have bad news months ago? Why is NOW so different than all the other doom and gloom threads?

If you didnt like the thread why post in it?

So were down to this? If you disagree, dont post? If you question the topic, dont post? If you have questions, dont post?

Please.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Factory orders are expected to have fallen 2.7% in October, when the government releases its report in the morning. Orders fell 2.5% in September.

That's about the scariest number I see (and it is). I had considered last week after the rallying to move some more into bonds. Perhaps I should have, but who knows. I want to be in stocks when we hit bottom. Hopefully that's soon (I know the recession will be long, but by bottom I mean things just stop getting worse), but clearly there's no way to tell so I won't play around each week moving crap around because it would be shooting in the dark.

If the Dow goes below 8000 again I'd just go all in on U.S. equity, much like Gates and Buffet have/are doing. But frankly, it could easily dip further yet again sometime in January when the (very very likely dismal) Q4 results come in. Perhaps the market has already priced in a bad Q4 considering we usually see a 6-9 month lag, but all in all Dow is probably going to stay roughly around this range for several months.

 

[Cattlegod]

WTF caused the 30 minute accelerated sell off today just before close?

 

[wwswimming]

Originally posted by: blackangst1OK....didnt we have bad news months ago? Why is NOW so different than all the other doom and gloom threads?

this is the Nov. 30 doom & gloom thread.

i don't think the Dow "getting honest" is a bad thing. it's supposed to
be the present value of the future earnings stream of the Dow
component companies.

i think of Cluster Fock as a cascading series of problems, e.g.
* people out of work
* winter coming, not having money for heating oil & health
care.
* then someone in the family gets sick

for so many middle-class & poor Americans, these are ultra-stressful
times. psychologists rate certain events as being "most stressful" -
death of a spouse, divorce, losing a job, moving.

a lot of Americans are having to deal with 2 or 3 of these things at
once. which does have a compounding/ feedback effect - less money
for that XBox for the kids, another electronics retailer shut down,
and the only store left is ... Best Buy. (just kidding, they're not that
bad.)

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Cattlegod
WTF caused the 30 minute accelerated sell off today just before close?

It's always like this. Look on any good or bad day and you can basically bet money on the fact that in the last hour there will be a vast amount of activity up or down, so either the losses are accelerated or greatly reversed or whatever, that's why 3-4:00 is so exciting!

Anyway, DOW got the fvck pwned out of it today, I'm afraid.

 

[Hyperlite]

This is so dumb. The media basically has control over the stock market. Every time there is bad news, there's a huge drop. Last week went largely without bad news, and news of even minute stock increases encouraged investors. Today the recession is declared and it all goes to hell. One word is spoken, and everyone tucks tail. Grow some balls people.

 

[JSt0rm]

funny reading posts before today in this thread. Lol. I'd say congrats op but its not really funny

 

[Acanthus]

Automaker news is in all over the place...

GM requests term loans of up to US $12bln

GM to further consolidate manufacturing operations

GM plans "significant" capital structure restructuring

GM to reduce wage, benefits, and executive compensation

GM to increase production of fuel-efficient vehicles

Sales:
Toyota down 31%
Honda down 31%
Ford cars down 31.5%
Ford trucks down 29%
Volvo down 46.5%
GM as a whole down 41.3%
Hummer down 63.9%
Chrysler down 47%
Chrysler cars down 59%

3:39 PM ET 12/2/08 | Marketwatch
RELATED QUOTES


3:44 PM ET 12/2/08
Symbol Last % Chg
F 2.70 5.88%
GM 4.61 0.49%
Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. is heading back to Washington singing a happier tune.

Ford (F) Chief Executive Alan Mulally, together with fellow CEOs Rick Wagoner of General Motors (GM) and Robert Nardelli of Chrysler, appeared two weeks ago before skeptical lawmakers and warned that unless the domestic auto industry is given $25 billion in emergency federal loans, it would likely collapse, dragging the rest of the economy down with it.

They were roundly scolded for coming to Washington unprepared and sent home empty-handed.

Mulally quickly changed tactics. Heeding Congressional admonitions to come back when they had a plan for how they would use the money, Mulally was the first to turn in his homework.

Suddenly, things don't look quite so dire. Mulally's report describes a company well on its way toward a product line packed with electric and hybrid cars. And despite steep restructuring costs, he said Ford has enough cash to get through 2009. He even sees Ford having a good shot at profitability by 2011. See full story.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: Hyperlite
This is so dumb. The media basically has control over the stock market. Every time there is bad news, there's a huge drop. Last week went largely without bad news, and news of even minute stock increases encouraged investors. Today the recession is declared and it all goes to hell. One word is spoken, and everyone tucks tail. Grow some balls people.

And now apparently today everything is fine again.