Digitimes: Windows-on-ARM platform to join notebook competition in June 2013

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Blitzvogel

Platinum Member
Oct 17, 2010
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Easy...vote a bunch of imbeciles into office and watch them institute budget cuts that kill the program and grounds them all :colbert:

:D


Oh you! :awe:

And to emphasize: I support Windows on ARM, but I don't ARM on my desktop until the performance actually manages to be as good as x86!
 
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Cerb

Elite Member
Aug 26, 2000
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Since these small SOC are BGA, a new mainboard would also have to be purchased to get the CPU/GPU.

But I can't imagine this being too expensive. $65- $75 for a new SOC/mainboard is a lot cheaper than paying $299 for another low quality netbook.
But, it's not just $65-75, even assuming the prices could be that low retail. There will still be different price tiers, based on what the market will bear. Zacate's prices are still strong not due to it being some kind of i3-killer, but because it's performance and feature balance is desirable to many. So, you might get a $75 Atom, but that upgrade would net you a generational IGP improvement only. For a real upgrade, consider it more like $100-150, and then you still might need to buy new RAM.

Then, if you are allowed to swap out other parts, like the display, expect very high RMA rates. Regular users, who don't treat their notebooks well anyway, are not going to have high success rates swapping out keyboards, displays, or AIBs.

Finally, what ports are you going to standardize on? External IO in a notebook or tablet is part of the body and frame. Not only is there no IO plate, but such a plate would necessarily add bulk, since now whatever space it takes up can not be used to support the structure of the notebook. If you decide on some set, then you can't add or remove them for good reaosns (space saving, tons of USBs, multiple Expresscards, VGA v. HDMI v. DVI v. DP, etc.). A desktop can differentiate itself through several means, which are not dependent upon the body, but portable computers, by and large, don't have that luxury. They could come up with standards for replaceable GPUs (tie form factor to TDP), but attempts at that have failed for reasons I'm not sure of.

The netbook, thanks to market manipulation, is a rather special case, and other portable network devices, from unencumbered notebooks to smart phones, do not share the netbooks' lack of improvements over time. Some makers were able to differentiate theirs (Samsung had a many-USB model, and one with bumpers on the corners, off the top of my head), but they were still stuck in shackles, keeping them all very close to cookie-cutter.

The key factor is making the cheap hardware and software easy to swap.
When 1/4" of thickness is not the entire world, that works. But, 1/4" is a world of difference in notebooks, and 1/8" is for tablets and phones. If you make the hardware cheap and easy to swap out, you can't make it light or thin. if you want to make it thin and light, but easy to swap out, it will still not be cheap. And, if you succeed, those who don't follow your standard, and who can make computers that differentiate themselves from the competition, will instead get mass market appeal.

IMO, this is why using Microsoft Windows fails. Nobody is going to pay $100 for a single use OEM license or $180 for a multi-use Retail license and then install that OS on a cheap $65 SOC Mainboard.
Non-portable Atoms disprove this. People can and do spend money on an OS to run on such cheap hardware. They'd prefer cheaper, of course, but it was a market-manipulating move to make a cheaper-only OS option for cheaper hardware. The OS' cost should be orthogonal to the hardware's. Microsoft may very well need to change their pricing schemes in the future, however. It is also a good example of why we need AMD to be competitive: late and hot, Zacate still put Atom in its place, and took off where netbooks stagnated, even models like the C-50, which offer fairly little over Atom.

High end hardware would be the goal of someone spending that kind of money. The economics of the MS OS situation is probably one good reason we only saw larger size notebooks like ASUS C90 or OCZ "DIY Notebook" (with their heavy and difficult to remove coolers) billed as upgradeable.
Even those, however, had the exact same problem as I noted about my desktop: Nehalem changed sockets, and actually did real beneficial work through the socket change. Core 2s did need material changes to mobos, to take full advantage of their power management, before that. So, you would need to be able to upgrade the entire mobo ($200?) to get anything useful out of the upgrade.

It's like other electronics. Many people tend to either buy cheap and throw them away, want to have the latest and greatest, and/or feel that their technology spending is part of their self-worth. Those people are easiest to market to. If people demanded products good enough to keep for several years, then what you see sold on the shelves would reflect that. I especially believe this to be true since products do exist that fill those needs, in the form of configurable notebook bare-bones for small vendors, and business notebooks from big vendors. If people stopped buying the cheap crap, manufacturers could easily shift to making more of the higher end series, and then go from there. As it is, that market is just too small.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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But, it's not just $65-75, even assuming the prices could be that low retail. There will still be different price tiers, based on what the market will bear. Zacate's prices are still strong not due to it being some kind of i3-killer, but because it's performance and feature balance is desirable to many. So, you might get a $75 Atom, but that upgrade would net you a generational IGP improvement only. For a real upgrade, consider it more like $100-150, and then you still might need to buy new RAM.

Not sure what the x86 CPUs cost, but I've seen a price of $15 for Tegra 2 (which includes RAM). Therefore I feel a price of $65 for a SOC with mainboard was being extremely generous.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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Non-portable Atoms disprove this. People can and do spend money on an OS to run on such cheap hardware. They'd prefer cheaper, of course, but it was a market-manipulating move to make a cheaper-only OS option for cheaper hardware. The OS' cost should be orthogonal to the hardware's. Microsoft may very well need to change their pricing schemes in the future

I'm sure there will be some exceptions to the rule.

However, most atom netbooks I see run Windows 7 Starter....in the cheapest netbook chassis that appears to get re-used year after year to keep costs down.

My guess is that this is done because there is a great deal of price compression in the notebook processor market. So much so that if an OEM actually installed atom in a regular notebook with Windows 7 Home premium I doubt the total price of the laptop would even change compared to Sandy Bridge Celeron.

With ARM coming on the scene I feel there is a good chance this price compression will get even worse. This will make differentiating CPU value at the level of the finished consumer device (eg, retail laptop) even more difficult.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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Finally, what ports are you going to standardize on? External IO in a notebook or tablet is part of the body and frame. Not only is there no IO plate, but such a plate would necessarily add bulk, since now whatever space it takes up can not be used to support the structure of the notebook. If you decide on some set, then you can't add or remove them for good reaosns (space saving, tons of USBs, multiple Expresscards, VGA v. HDMI v. DVI v. DP, etc.). A desktop can differentiate itself through several means, which are not dependent upon the body, but portable computers, by and large, don't have that luxury.

When 1/4" of thickness is not the entire world, that works. But, 1/4" is a world of difference in notebooks, and 1/8" is for tablets and phones. If you make the hardware cheap and easy to swap out, you can't make it light or thin. if you want to make it thin and light, but easy to swap out, it will still not be cheap.

I figure if enough pressure builds we will start seeing hardware makers (Intel, AMD, VIA, Qualcomm, TI, Nvidia) getting really clever with how to solve these problems.
 
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Cerb

Elite Member
Aug 26, 2000
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in the cheapest netbook chassis that appears to get re-used year after year to keep costs down.
This is done elsewhere, too. Dell has commonly reused Lattitude and XPS chassis, or changed them only in trim, until the internal hardware has to change drastically. That's something netbooks haven't had to face. They just get more integration, and slightly more relaxed rules by Intel every year. My contention is that without the Intel and MS collusion on netbooks, netbooks would have naturally grown out of their <$300 teeny weenie cookie cutter computer cage, and so netbooks are not necessarily representative of the rest of the market, which has rarely had any such restrictions. Companies don't go changing cases just because it's convenient. They do so because a new design gets them something the old can't. it just so happens that it's typically only a few years before they need a new one.

My guess is that this is done because there is a great deal of price compression in the notebook processor market. So much so that if an OEM actually installed atom in a regular notebook with Windows 7 Home premium I doubt the total price of the laptop would even change compared to Sandy Bridge Celeron.
I don't know about Atom, since they are still not so common, but Zacates are substantially cheaper for the size. Not netbook costs, because, well, they are more expensive to produce and take more room on a pallet, but cheaper than a lower-end Intel, typically, especially the business models, while offering very thin cases and/or very long battery life (balancing cheaper cost due to lower performance with adding value that increases cost).

With ARM coming on the scene I feel there is a good chance this price compression will get even worse. This will make differentiating CPU value at the level of the finished consumer device (eg, retail laptop) even more difficult.
That I wholly agree with. Chasing high volume at low margin rarely leaves room to increase margins later on (we get used to the low-margin prices, yet actual costs and profits are hidden from us), and that tends to drive businesses towards offering products that are poor values for the consumer, just due to shaving pennies on certain parts contracts, or sacrificing quality of parts or construction, and obfuscating the consequences from potential buyers (such as the not common case of major vendor desktops and notebooks that are impossible to configure well; attempts to market such computers for things they are poor at, but for which affordable cards, or better CPU choices, could fix; and using poor quality hardware, and/or esoteric accessory hardware with iffy quality and/or driver support).

OTOH, that can be seen as far down the technology ladder as pots, pans, plates, and bowls. It's a systemic economic problem. The difference with electronics is that even the good stuff is now made in China, so we can't point a finger at outsourcing to developing countries :).
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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If people demanded products good enough to keep for several years, then what you see sold on the shelves would reflect that. I especially believe this to be true since products do exist that fill those needs, in the form of configurable notebook bare-bones for small vendors, and business notebooks from big vendors. If people stopped buying the cheap crap, manufacturers could easily shift to making more of the higher end series, and then go from there. As it is, that market is just too small.

I think one problem with the configurable notebook bare-bones is the average person doesn't have the IT skills to pull off the installation.

In order to make something like that work on a higher volume scale the process needs to be much much simpler.
 

Cerb

Elite Member
Aug 26, 2000
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Not sure what the x86 CPUs cost, but I've seen a price of $15 for Tegra 2 (which includes RAM). Therefore I feel a price of $65 for a SOC with mainboard was being extremely generous.
Retail, when SFF boards that don't even have CPUs in them hardly ever go for that little, unless they have basically nothing useful integrated?

Does Tegra 3 have NICs in it (I have seen no mention of such)? Will the board take added storage (add-on RAM and SATAs will add to cost)? Will there be support for typical peripherals? Fitting all of that into a board generally adds to cost, especially as sizes get smaller, and non-rectangular shapes are the order of the day. I don't know the exact costs, but they will definitely be more than a comparable desktop board.

I figure if enough pressure builds we will start seeing hardware makers (Intel, AMD, VIA, Qualcomm, TI, Nvidia) getting really clever with how to solve these problems.
If there is enough pressure, sure. I don't see that pressure building, or even needing to, so long as the proprietary properties of each device are there to make a good product, which is typically the situation (HP and Dell found out that people didn't like them changing screw holes and PSU wires around to impede ATX compatibility; but nobody complains that you can't swap a Dell SFF mobo into a HP SFF case).

Being proprietary is not by itself a bad thing. Being proprietary for the purpose of extorting customers and shutting out competition is. Standards can hamper development of a product that may fit your needs better than one that sticks with a standard.
 

cotak13

Member
Nov 10, 2010
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June 2013 is eons away in computing. Too long to really speculate. I have noticed that mr bottleneck likes arm a lot. I think you need to step back and think clearly before you over think just how much impact they will really make.

First whom will be the arm vendors for notebooks? Nvidia is the only company that has stated such ambition. Everyone else seems more intent on the smartphone market where they are actually making money.

While it could be debated that a mobile chip will grow up to work in a notebook. I feel it is unlikely. As those devices will always face a greater need to be power efficient then to be fast.

People might then want to debate how arm is inherently more efficient. That is an age old argument. And the last time RISC vs CISC was a popular topic, the end result was that it really didn't matter as much as people thought. I think we will find that as arm chips gets faster they are going to look a lot more like x86 in terms of power efficiency.
 

rolodomo

Senior member
Mar 19, 2004
269
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It seems kinda pointless to me. More like a "we can do this now" sort of product. Better to have an all in one cellphone that can also act as a PC when docked. Everyone needs a cellphone anyway right? I'm thinking a cellphone/PC that you can add accessories to make it a fullblown PC. like a wireless HDMI/DVI reciever, wireless keyboard/mouse, wireless NAS, cloud service, etc. Those accessories should still be cheaper than a separate PC and everyone still needs a cellphone, right? :)

At that size and for $150 or so, I would buy it without hesitation and plug it into the extra HDMI port on my main desktop's monitor for browsing/word processing (keep the gaming desktop off). I also have an older plasma in my living room I would like to plug this device into for a general purpose, but highly efficient, small and quiet HTPC.

It would actually be important to me to keep the device DISTINCT from my cellphone and NAS so that it could remain as small and efficient as possible. I would like the device however to interface to the cellphone and NAS over a home network.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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Being proprietary is not by itself a bad thing. Being proprietary for the purpose of extorting customers and shutting out competition is. Standards can hamper development of a product that may fit your needs better than one that sticks with a standard.

Well my point is these netbooks are not exactly proprietary in a good way. They are made from the cheapest parts possible.

See the following example where an old Intel netbook chassis is used for the bobcat fusion APU :(

http://macles.blogspot.com/2010/12/acer-aspire-one-522-with-amd-fusion.html

Acer Aspire One 522 with AMD Fusion
Acer introduced a new design with the previous AMD based Aspire One, but not this time. It's the third or fourth AA1 in a row to share chassis and design with the AOD255. Except for the textured touchpad button, which previous models don't have, it is identical. Well, the color combination is new, but it's not quite AMD green.

Not really sure why we need this? Or why it is even good for us?

Not only that, but how is this good for Intel and AMD?

(This is why I would like to see Android x86 take off. It would definitely be the first step towards a system that gave power back to the consumer. This, in turn, I feel it would pave the way for stronger bobcat and atom development.)

As it stands now I feel like the device makers (and MS) are not able to do justice for atom and bobcat. (The fruit is in the Intel's slow release schedule for Cedar trail. Atom finally gets 32nm process node in early 2012?? <---That tells me this part just doesn't sell well enough to justify the economics of the more expensive wafers)

P.S. I do realize an argument (for a little bit of that two year delay) can be made for Intel's poor GPU driver not being able to achieve WHQL certification. I've seen posts here at Anandtech claiming this is because stock Imagination tech drivers are written for Linux. If true, then that seems like even more reason for Intel to persue Android x86 over Microsoft Windows 7 Starter.
 

cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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I forgot to mention earlier that at one point Intel was offering Oak trail atom for $25 when packaged with Meego.

So atom doesn't necessarily need to be expensive.

However, with that being said I really feel Intel needs to develop a system where a more rapid turnover of atom (with better margins) could be achieved. Maybe Android x86 will be the ace they need?

Like I mentioned earlier, with Google purchasing Motorola (and Motorola very into "Lapdocks") I feel large screen Android optimzation with keyboard support is only a matter of time.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20101124PD205.html

Intel starts mass producing Oak Trail platform

Monica Chen, Taipei; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 24 November 2010]

Intel has recently started mass production of its Oak Trail platform specifically for tablet PCs, with the combination of Atom Z670 processor and SM35 chipset the initial product, according to industry sources.

The Oak Trail platform will sell at about US$25 with MeeGo, and the price for Oak Trail and Microsoft's Windows 7 will be higher.

Although Intel's processors cannot match those of ARM in terms of low price and power consumption, Intel's strategy of offering cheaper prices and improving performance and power consumption of the platform, should help Intel defend against ARM-based products.

Sources also pointed out that most existing tablet PCs currently are priced at above NT$17,000 (US$559), and if the average price cannot drop below NT$15,000 in 2011, the expected surge in shipment growth may not occur.
 

Cerb

Elite Member
Aug 26, 2000
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While it could be debated that a mobile chip will grow up to work in a notebook. I feel it is unlikely. As those devices will always face a greater need to be power efficient then to be fast.
The x86 we know grew out of a calculator. How's that for mobile? Growing up is always easier than shrinking down. ARM has the efficiency now, but not the performance, and they will need to push a cohesive platform to make it happen, even with CPU cores up to the task on the way. X86's inertia isn't some invisible force; it just seems that way because we take so much for granted, like acceptable video drivers* and fast memory controllers.

People might then want to debate how arm is inherently more efficient. That is an age old argument. And the last time RISC vs CISC was a popular topic, the end result was that it really didn't matter as much as people thought. I think we will find that as arm chips gets faster they are going to look a lot more like x86 in terms of power efficiency.
ARM is far more efficient when you want a CPU core that sips milliWatts, has fast memory access (IE, low MHz), and can efficiently execute code in-order, with software pipelining to keep it efficient.

Superscalar OOOE and slow memory access alone take away a great deal of the innate advantages ARM may have at the very low end. At some point, the ugliness of x86 will become background noise, just as it has for high-performance markets. However, unless we can get something faster than DRAM at a low price, average code density will still give x86 a useful edge, on top of Intel's ability to out-manufacture the rest of the world.

ARM certainly has a chance, but getting into x86 performance territory could mean ditching their secret sauce for store brand.

* excepting Intel's PowerVR GPUs with contracted out drivers, grrr.
 
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cbn

Lifer
Mar 27, 2009
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http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57334193/intel-thrills-and-chills-thinking-about-windows-8/

All the major vendors are now, silicon vendors are moving to a model where you develop these Form Factor Reference Designs, where you basically lock down the components and validate them on networks, on the 3G, 4G networks that are out there such that they can go &#8212; our customers can go through IOT testing very quickly to get on &#8212; into the market.

And you&#8217;ll see a number of Intel customers using the guts of this phone to go into the market in the first half of next year, and we&#8217;ll have more announcements on that at CES.

I wonder where Intel will take this?

Will they make a move towards some type of Lapdock compatibility with their upcoming Smartphone reference designs?
 
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Blitzvogel

Platinum Member
Oct 17, 2010
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http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57334193/intel-thrills-and-chills-thinking-about-windows-8/



I wonder where Intel will take this?

Will they make a move towards some type of Lapdock compatibility with their upcoming Smartphone reference designs?

That article and those charts actually make me think that Intel has a chance in the smart phone market. The tablet market doesn't worry me, Intel and AMD have a chance there because tablets are much bigger than phones, and can cram a much larger battery in reference to the rest of it's components and volume. However, any advancements made in reference to smart phones are immediately applicable to tablets.
 

Cerb

Elite Member
Aug 26, 2000
17,484
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Will they make a move towards some type of Lapdock compatibility with their upcoming Smartphone reference designs?
No more than they already are. Reference designs that different products are based on are not unusual.

The chart, however...that is unusual.