Did NO ONE listen to Bernanke's testimony the other day?

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Michael
So layoffs will occur. So what? I finished university in 1987 and the market crashed 1 month after I started work. Since then there have been several downturns and lay-offs have been a part of my entire working life.

I'm also a financial professional and have raised over $1B (and counting) on the public markets for the companies I work for. I deal with Wall Street bankers every week.

If a few more of the large institutions go under it will be quite bad. However, I am convinced that if it is not very bad, then nothing will get fixed.

The truth of the matter is that the banks used borrowed money to make big bets. They've been feeding off the hedge funds for years and now the hedge funds are feeding off on them. The took the risks and their management, boards and investors did not stop them. Now they should take the bad along with the good.

I think it will be better and cleaner to have a hard crash. The last one we had (The Great Depression) had terrible consequences (WW II for example) but eventually the benefits that came out of it made the country better.

Michael

Wow, you raised $1BN in the markets and deal with bankers every day. When I worked for a credit card issuer I put in place 5 ABCP conduits for $6BN of funding in 4 months. Last year I raised over $3BN in conduit funding, in facilities that raised over $30BN total. Want to see what the securitization market has done this year?

Check out some of the more on-the-run companies and how "successful" they are at at just maintaining funding at reasonable rates these days. I already know of several companies who have laid off thousands because they can't even maintain their funding in the securitization markets. The crunch is hitting hard and fast.

87 was a fart in the wind compared to what's happening now. That was over in months, this could spiral into a decade long severe recession, or depression.

But hey, you've been "through it". The guys I work with who were there during 87 say it wasn't shit compared to this.

Yes, doom and gloom! A decade long recession or depression! Thousands are losing their jobs! Of course you're paranoid, because your industry is threatened. Markets will correct themselves, and you'll still have your job. This was a house built on cards, you had to have seen this coming LK.

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Michael
So layoffs will occur. So what? I finished university in 1987 and the market crashed 1 month after I started work. Since then there have been several downturns and lay-offs have been a part of my entire working life.

I'm also a financial professional and have raised over $1B (and counting) on the public markets for the companies I work for. I deal with Wall Street bankers every week.

If a few more of the large institutions go under it will be quite bad. However, I am convinced that if it is not very bad, then nothing will get fixed.

The truth of the matter is that the banks used borrowed money to make big bets. They've been feeding off the hedge funds for years and now the hedge funds are feeding off on them. The took the risks and their management, boards and investors did not stop them. Now they should take the bad along with the good.

I think it will be better and cleaner to have a hard crash. The last one we had (The Great Depression) had terrible consequences (WW II for example) but eventually the benefits that came out of it made the country better.

Michael

Wow, you raised $1BN in the markets and deal with bankers every day. When I worked for a credit card issuer I put in place 5 ABCP conduits for $6BN of funding in 4 months. Last year I raised over $3BN in conduit funding, in facilities that raised over $30BN total. Want to see what the securitization market has done this year?

Check out some of the more on-the-run companies and how "successful" they are at at just maintaining funding at reasonable rates these days. I already know of several companies who have laid off thousands because they can't even maintain their funding in the securitization markets. The crunch is hitting hard and fast.

87 was a fart in the wind compared to what's happening now. That was over in months, this could spiral into a decade long severe recession, or depression.

But hey, you've been "through it". The guys I work with who were there during 87 say it wasn't shit compared to this.

Yes, doom and gloom! A decade long recession or depression! Thousands are losing their jobs! Of course you're paranoid, because your industry is threatened. Markets will correct themselves, and you'll still have your job. This was a house built on cards, you had to have seen this coming LK.

Kinda like they did in the 1930s? Because that's the last time we had a global credit crunch...
Maybe when you're paying 25% on your car loan or 38% on your CC APR, you'll wake up.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: frostedflakes

Originally posted by: halik

Originally posted by: SleepWalkerX

Originally posted by: bamacre
Here is Paul vs. Bernanke...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv6rQ0U01Yc

Bill Anderson over at lewrockell.com had this to say...

Contrary to his statement, the Fed was not taking advice from Andrew Mellon in the early 1930s. As Murray Rothbard points out in America's Great Depression (some here), the Fed did try to reflate, but it did no good.

Furthermore, Bernanke's response is not logical. He earlier agreed that there was price fixing during the Great Depression, but then claims that the Fed listened to Mellon and "liquidated" everyone. Had there been the liquidations, there would have been no depression. One cannot both have price fixing and not have price fixing simultaneously.

I'm surprised Ron Paul didn't stop Bernanke from his other lies on the spot. The Fed DID intervene and try to inflate out of the deflation. But at least he stopped him on the Congressional legality of issuing coins vs. bills of credit.

Idiocy levels are high when you fail at history.

Read the peer reviewed version, not the bullshit on wikipedia
Text

Also occham's razor - who knows more about macro economics, the guy that's the head of the fed and holds an econ Degree from MIT or an obstetrician ?

Bernanke has also written many papers on the economics of the Great Depression. I haven't bothered doing any fact-checking on his statements, but I'd tend to think he knows what he's talking about.

And Greenspan has a phD from NYU, so what? Everyone thought he knew what he was talking about as well... whoops. Maybe that "crazy obstetrician" saw the writing on the wall and these edumacated economists were all in on it. Just maybe.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: halik

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Michael
So layoffs will occur. So what? I finished university in 1987 and the market crashed 1 month after I started work. Since then there have been several downturns and lay-offs have been a part of my entire working life.

I'm also a financial professional and have raised over $1B (and counting) on the public markets for the companies I work for. I deal with Wall Street bankers every week.

If a few more of the large institutions go under it will be quite bad. However, I am convinced that if it is not very bad, then nothing will get fixed.

The truth of the matter is that the banks used borrowed money to make big bets. They've been feeding off the hedge funds for years and now the hedge funds are feeding off on them. The took the risks and their management, boards and investors did not stop them. Now they should take the bad along with the good.

I think it will be better and cleaner to have a hard crash. The last one we had (The Great Depression) had terrible consequences (WW II for example) but eventually the benefits that came out of it made the country better.

Michael

Wow, you raised $1BN in the markets and deal with bankers every day. When I worked for a credit card issuer I put in place 5 ABCP conduits for $6BN of funding in 4 months. Last year I raised over $3BN in conduit funding, in facilities that raised over $30BN total. Want to see what the securitization market has done this year?

Check out some of the more on-the-run companies and how "successful" they are at at just maintaining funding at reasonable rates these days. I already know of several companies who have laid off thousands because they can't even maintain their funding in the securitization markets. The crunch is hitting hard and fast.

87 was a fart in the wind compared to what's happening now. That was over in months, this could spiral into a decade long severe recession, or depression.

But hey, you've been "through it". The guys I work with who were there during 87 say it wasn't shit compared to this.

Yes, doom and gloom! A decade long recession or depression! Thousands are losing their jobs! Of course you're paranoid, because your industry is threatened. Markets will correct themselves, and you'll still have your job. This was a house built on cards, you had to have seen this coming LK.

Kinda like they did in the 1930s? Because that's the last time we had a global credit crunch...
Maybe when you're paying 25% on your car loan or 38% on your CC APR, you'll wake up.

Or maybe my car is a 1997 that I paid cash for b/c I don't want a car payment? Or maybe I don't use CC's that don't lock in 0% APR? Or maybe I was smart enough to refi/consolidate my college loan to a 4% fixed in 2004? Who are you telling to wake up again? Oh, that's right: you mean people who were stupid enough to take a variable rate on their college loans.

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: halik

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Michael
So layoffs will occur. So what? I finished university in 1987 and the market crashed 1 month after I started work. Since then there have been several downturns and lay-offs have been a part of my entire working life.

I'm also a financial professional and have raised over $1B (and counting) on the public markets for the companies I work for. I deal with Wall Street bankers every week.

If a few more of the large institutions go under it will be quite bad. However, I am convinced that if it is not very bad, then nothing will get fixed.

The truth of the matter is that the banks used borrowed money to make big bets. They've been feeding off the hedge funds for years and now the hedge funds are feeding off on them. The took the risks and their management, boards and investors did not stop them. Now they should take the bad along with the good.

I think it will be better and cleaner to have a hard crash. The last one we had (The Great Depression) had terrible consequences (WW II for example) but eventually the benefits that came out of it made the country better.

Michael

Wow, you raised $1BN in the markets and deal with bankers every day. When I worked for a credit card issuer I put in place 5 ABCP conduits for $6BN of funding in 4 months. Last year I raised over $3BN in conduit funding, in facilities that raised over $30BN total. Want to see what the securitization market has done this year?

Check out some of the more on-the-run companies and how "successful" they are at at just maintaining funding at reasonable rates these days. I already know of several companies who have laid off thousands because they can't even maintain their funding in the securitization markets. The crunch is hitting hard and fast.

87 was a fart in the wind compared to what's happening now. That was over in months, this could spiral into a decade long severe recession, or depression.

But hey, you've been "through it". The guys I work with who were there during 87 say it wasn't shit compared to this.

Yes, doom and gloom! A decade long recession or depression! Thousands are losing their jobs! Of course you're paranoid, because your industry is threatened. Markets will correct themselves, and you'll still have your job. This was a house built on cards, you had to have seen this coming LK.

Kinda like they did in the 1930s? Because that's the last time we had a global credit crunch...
Maybe when you're paying 25% on your car loan or 38% on your CC APR, you'll wake up.

Or maybe my car is a 1997 that I paid cash for b/c I don't want a car payment? Or maybe I don't use CC's that don't lock in 0% APR? Or maybe I was smart enough to refi/consolidate my college loan to a 4% fixed in 2004? Who are you telling to wake up again? Oh, that's right: you mean people who were stupid enough to take a variable rate on their college loans.

Hah my adjustable loan went down 1.5% this year actually :-D (It was 7 years after the last recession when I took them out, which means we were due for another. Recession means lower interest rates ) The only problem is if libor stays up till the next reset, but at that point, that would be the least of my problems.

What was the last time you bought a new car with cash or bought your house in cash? That's right, never.... Consumption is ~70% of our GDP, we'll be in deep shit if credit market freezes up. You think 25% unemployment won't affect you because you drive an old car and have no payments? Wake the hell up man...

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: halik
Hah my adjustable loan went down 1.5% this year actually :-D (It was 7 years after the last recession when I took them out, which means we were due for another. Recession means lower interest rates ) The only problem is if libor stays up till the next reset, but at that point, that would be the least of my problems.

What was the last time you bought a new car with cash or bought your house in cash? That's right, never.... Consumption is ~70% of our GDP, we'll be in deep shit if credit market freezes up. You think 25% unemployment won't affect you because you drive an old car and have no payments? Wake the hell up man...

Well I'm glad your loans might be more manageable even though you went the nonconventional route.

I actually bought my 97 Buick for $1500 cash. When it dies, I'll just get another old car, I'm not going to worry about a car payment unless I'm guaranteed 0% (which is less likely to happen now that domestics are getting their $25bil loan). On the issue of housing, of course most people can't pay cash... but doesn't it help you sleep at night knowing that people who would be getting loans for their house actually deserve it?. If you can't afford to own, rent like the rest of us and practice this incredible and novel idea called saving until you can.

Nope, 25% unemployment won't affect me b/c I'm on a guaranteed contract until 2013. Not the highest paying of jobs, but at least I have job security (which was my number one req when job hunting). So while I feel bad for all these poor people who will be unemployed, it's all a part of the cycle and maybe next time they'll hedge their bets a little wiser (i.e. better fiscal prudence/not overextending themselves, choosing a job/sector with better security, making wiser investments in things such as gold).

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: halik
Hah my adjustable loan went down 1.5% this year actually :-D (It was 7 years after the last recession when I took them out, which means we were due for another. Recession means lower interest rates ) The only problem is if libor stays up till the next reset, but at that point, that would be the least of my problems.

What was the last time you bought a new car with cash or bought your house in cash? That's right, never.... Consumption is ~70% of our GDP, we'll be in deep shit if credit market freezes up. You think 25% unemployment won't affect you because you drive an old car and have no payments? Wake the hell up man...

Well I'm glad your loans might be more manageable even though you went the nonconventional route.

I actually bought my 97 Buick for $1500 cash. When it dies, I'll just get another old car, I'm not going to worry about a car payment unless I'm guaranteed 0% (which is less likely to happen now that domestics are getting their $25bil loan). On the issue of housing, of course most people can't pay cash... but doesn't it help you sleep at night knowing that people who would be getting loans for their house actually deserve it?. If you can't afford to own, rent like the rest of us and practice this incredible and novel idea called saving until you can.

Nope, 25% unemployment won't affect me b/c I'm on a guaranteed contract until 2013. Not the highest paying of jobs, but at least I have job security (which was my number one req when job hunting). So while I feel bad for all these poor people who will be unemployed, it's all a part of the cycle and maybe next time they'll hedge their bets a little wiser (i.e. better fiscal prudence/not overextending themselves, choosing a job/sector with better security, making wiser investments in things such as gold).

Heh well your plan is then "fuck everyone else, because I'll be alright". I can guarantee you that even the people that did have jobs during the great depression weren't doing as well as 10 years before. I'd much rather avoid it, much like all the other potential calamities in the past couple decades (asian bust, LTCM, trifts etc.). Utlimately, the role of government in capitalist markets is to fix and prevent market failures.

Also I hope you divest from gold when we get through it, it will tank again once flight to safety subsidizes.