Democrats Underperforming with Hispanic voters

[SP33Demon]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/669861?unlock=KAUSQTFQV9QBKC1M

Democrats Underperforming With Hispanic Voters
Despite the president’s hard-line immigration policies, Republican candidates are running competitively in many Hispanic-heavy states and congressional districts.

Democrats counting on President Trump’s hard-line immigration policies to spark energized Hispanic turnout and a wave against GOP candidates in this year’s midterms will be surprised to see what’s transpiring. Even during the heat of the family-separation crisis, Democrats are underperforming in heavily Hispanic constituencies, from GOP-held border battlegrounds in Texas to diversifying districts in Southern California to the nation’s most populous Senate battleground in Florida.
...
He’s [Rep. Will Hurd is] in surprisingly good shape as he vies for a third term against Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones. Despite holding one of the 25 GOP seats that Clinton carried, he’s not on the list of The Cook Political Report’s most endangered 31 members. His Texas colleagues John Culberson and Pete Sessions, representing suburban Houston and Dallas districts where Republicans traditionally dominate, are in deeper trouble. It’s a crystal-clear sign that the anti-Trump anger is concentrated within whiter, affluent suburban communities, not the Hispanic battlegrounds with the most at stake.

There are also plenty of other clues suggesting Hispanic voters won’t be rushing to the polls this November. In a special election to fill the vacant seat of former Rep. Blake Farenthold of Texas last Saturday, there were few signs of a Democratic wave. The reliably Republican district is majority-Hispanic, yet GOP candidates on the ballot tallied the same 60 percent vote share that Trump did in 2016. There were no signs of increased Hispanic engagement—even with the border crisis raging not far away.

Those results mirror the results from the March Texas primaries, in which the Democrats’ Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke, a progressive favorite, badly underperformed in many border towns with large Hispanic populations. O’Rourke carried 87 percent of the vote in millennial-friendly Travis County (Austin), but fell well short of a majority in most counties along the border.

Move to the West Coast, and the results look similar. One of the Democrats’ must-win targets in California, the seat of retiring Rep. Ed Royce, is looking surprisingly competitive. Even though this is a plurality-Hispanic district that Clinton comfortably carried, a recent pollcommissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found Republican Young Kim leading Democrat Gil Cisneros by 2 points (45-43 percent). It’s another sign that Hispanics may not be turning out to vote at a level commensurate to their representation.

Florida is offering an even bigger shock to the Democrats’ system, given its perennial battleground status. In the state’s marquee race pitting Gov. Rick Scott against Sen. Bill Nelson, the governor’s standing with Hispanic voters is keeping him competitive despite the difficult political environment for Republicans. Two recently released polls show Scott, a longtime Trump ally, tallying noticeably higher popularity scores than the president in Florida. One poll, conducted by CBS News, shows Nelson leading by only 1 point among Hispanics (37-36 percent) while an NBC/Marist survey showed Nelson with a 10-point lead (52-42 percent) among the demographic. Either outcome shows Scott significantly outperforming Trump, who lost the Hispanic vote in Florida by a whopping 27 points in 2016 (and still carried the state).

Digging deeper, a Florida International University survey of Puerto Ricans in Florida—typically a Democratic-leaning demographic—found that 55 percent held a positive view of Scott, with 57 percent holding a positive view of Nelson. Democrats had been optimistic that a wave of these new voters in the wake of Hurricane Maria would give them an advantage for the midterms. But Scott’s frequent travel to the island and his campaign’s aggressive Spanish-language television advertising has kept them in play.

Down in South Florida, one of the few Republicans to represent a majority-Hispanic district is also showing his resilience. In a recent Democratic survey conducted in his district, Rep. Carlos Curbelo sported a solid 42-27 favorability score, with 48 percent of voters approving of Trump’s job performance. Clinton won this district by 16 points, so if anything, these results suggest Trump has gained ground with the district’s substantial Cuban-American community since becoming president.
...
Meanwhile, these results show that a critical mass of Hispanic voters are willing to prioritize other issues—like the growing economy—in choosing congressional candidates.

TLDR: The last sentence of the article sums it up -
"Meanwhile, these results show that a critical mass of Hispanic voters are willing to prioritize other issues—like the growing economy—in choosing congressional candidates."

Like I've stated in previous posts over the past few days, Democrats cannot assume that Hispanics will only vote for them. This is a huge assumption and Trump carried almost 30% of their vote so this shows that Repubs are probably gaining even more ground now with the booming economy. Also don't forget that most Hispanics are Catholic which already by default makes them half conservative to a certain degree. Throw in family-oriented incentives like the child tax credit doubling plus slightly lower taxes and lower unemployment and voila. They will vote Republican. Democrats have a lot of work to do if any of these polls are reflections of how things will go in mid terms. First losing white males, now Hispanics. This could signal a remarkable cultural shift where a demographic is finally breaking out of their generalized mold that they've been relegated to for decades.

BTW - hey media, keep showing pictures of families at the border - that propaganda is really working (not). Most Hispanics here legally don't like the illegals so the plan is only working on [frail-minded, bleeding heart] suburban females like the article states.

 

[cytg111]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/669861?unlock=KAUSQTFQV9QBKC1M

TLDR: The last sentence of the article sums it up -
"Meanwhile, these results show that a critical mass of Hispanic voters are willing to prioritize other issues—like the growing economy—in choosing congressional candidates."

Like I've stated in previous posts over the past few days, Democrats cannot assume that Hispanics will only vote for them. This is a huge assumption and Trump carried almost 30% of their vote so this shows that Repubs are probably gaining even more ground now with the booming economy. Also don't forget that most Hispanics are Catholic which already by default makes them half conservative to a certain degree. Throw in family-oriented incentives like the child tax credit doubling plus slightly lower taxes and lower unemployment and voila. They will vote Republican. Democrats have a lot of work to do if any of these polls are reflections of how things will go in mid terms. First losing white males, now Hispanics. This could signal a remarkable cultural shift where a demographic is finally breaking out of their generalized mold that they've been relegated to for decades.

BTW - hey media, keep showing pictures of families at the border - that propaganda is really working (not). Most Hispanics here legally don't like the illegals so the plan is only working on [frail-minded, bleeding heart] suburban females like the article states.

Bla bla bla bla

If immigration is a winning issue for Democrats in the midterms, it’s because they’re winning over suburban white women, not because they’re mobilizing Hispanic voters against Republicans. Indeed, even as Democrats underperform in these pivotal races, the historic gender gap is what’s propelling them to a possible House majority.

Like your master, you dont read do you?

- Suburban white women - CHECK.
- Hispanic vote - working on that.

 

[SP33Demon]

Bla bla bla bla



Like your master, you dont read do you?

- Suburban white women - CHECK.
- Hispanic vote - working on that.

What's your point? You're losing hispanics. There's no guarantee of any type of majority with Hispanics in play, hence why they use the word "possible". Also, you realize that men outnumber women in this country? If votes have to go along sexual identity lines then I'm all for it.

 

[MooseNSquirrel]

Ill give sp33d this much, hes more fun than russian trolls.

But he still cant find a non right wing site to confirm his bias

Here let me help

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

 

[SP33Demon]

Ill give sp33d this much, hes more fun than russian trolls.

But he still cant find a non right wing site to confirm his bias

Here let me help

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

Except that link is almost a year old, and the latest Reuters poll on white males switching to Republicans shows that once again (like picking Clinton to win by 75/25%) fivethirtyeight gets it wrong. Dems aren't winning over white males at all anymore.

 

[compuwiz1]

Brandon Straka has found his voice. The liberals claim the movement is bots. Fake!
Democrats don't need anyone, except for votes. They divide people into little victim groups and promise them protection, even the moon, until after the elections are over. Every major ghetto in America has one thing in common....run by democrats. #WalkAway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51UGcghHZsk

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Brandon Straka has found his voice. The liberals claim the movement is bots. Fake!
Democrats don't need anyone, except for votes. They divide people into little victim groups and promise them protection, even the moon, until after the elections are over. Every major ghetto in America has one thing in common....run by democrats. #WalkAway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51UGcghHZsk

Hits the nail on the head.

As far as the topic of this thread, you would be surprised how many hispanics are heavily against the victimhood culture of illegal --errr sorry, I mean "undocumented" immigrants. Plenty I know that are pissed off at the fact that their stupid political party wants to allow people to cut in line to the top when they themselves waited for years.

 

[fskimospy]

It’s funny how you guys are desperately trying to find constituencies that might vote for your preferred candidate.

The generic ballot is around +7-8 democrat and special elections are somewhere around +15 democrat but hey, this article tells you something you want to hear.

 

[dphantom]

Hits the nail on the head.

As far as the topic of this thread, you would be surprised how many hispanics are heavily against the victimhood culture of illegal --errr sorry, I mean "undocumented" immigrants. Plenty I know that are pissed off at the fact that their stupid political party wants to allow people to cut in line to the top when they themselves waited for years.

Those who enter our or any other country outside the legally defined requirements are here illegally. Call them what they are. Never allow statists such as we find here control the language.

 

[dphantom]

It’s funny how you guys are desperately trying to find constituencies that might vote for your preferred candidate.

The generic ballot is around +7-8 democrat and special elections are somewhere around +15 democrat but hey, this article tells you something you want to hear.

About 6 weeks old:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/31/politics/2018-generic-ballot-independents/index.html

This dive for Democrats comes on the heels of some attention around the generic ballot tightening, not just in CNN's polling, but in many others. The most recent CNN polling had Democrats at a three-point lead, well within the margin of error. However, in February 2018, Republicans faced a 16-point climb.
Some of the other groups that have changed significantly since the high of the February poll:

• White non-college graduates -- Support for a generic Democratic candidate went from 45% to 35%
• Those under the age of 45 -- A 7-point gain for Republicans
• Those with an income under $50K -- 9-point loss for Democrats, 7-point gain for Republicans
• White voters -- (8-point gain for Republicans and loss for Democrats

 

[fskimospy]

About 6 weeks old:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/31/politics/2018-generic-ballot-independents/index.html

This dive for Democrats comes on the heels of some attention around the generic ballot tightening, not just in CNN's polling, but in many others. The most recent CNN polling had Democrats at a three-point lead, well within the margin of error. However, in February 2018, Republicans faced a 16-point climb.
Some of the other groups that have changed significantly since the high of the February poll:

• White non-college graduates -- Support for a generic Democratic candidate went from 45% to 35%
• Those under the age of 45 -- A 7-point gain for Republicans
• Those with an income under $50K -- 9-point loss for Democrats, 7-point gain for Republicans
• White voters -- (8-point gain for Republicans and loss for Democrats

About zero days old:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

So, you were saying?

 

[TheVrolok]

Hits the nail on the head.

As far as the topic of this thread, you would be surprised how many hispanics are heavily against the victimhood culture of illegal --errr sorry, I mean "undocumented" immigrants. Plenty I know that are pissed off at the fact that their stupid political party wants to allow people to cut in line to the top when they themselves waited for years.

While the OP is obviously a bit of a tool, I don't disagree with some of the premise here. As a white man married to a Latin immigrant, it is absolutely true that the thought of "Hispanics" as a monolithic constituency is false. Just because one speaks Spanish does not mean he or she supports/shares ideals with (or even tolerates) other Spanish speaking cultures.

 

[dphantom]

About zero days old:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

So, you were saying?

Looking at the underlying data, we see a strong lean toward dem voters. You can look at the raw data yourself. So it will be interesting to see how the midterms unfold.

subgroup modeldate startdate enddate pollster grade samplesize population weight influence dem rep
Voters 7/6/2018 6/27/2018 7/1/2018 Ipsos B+ 2198 rv 0.17246 0.149827 44.4 34.3
Voters 7/6/2018 6/28/2018 6/29/2018 Morning Consult B- 1990 rv 0.636679 0.551038 43 35
Voters 7/6/2018 6/28/2018 7/2/2018 Ipsos B+ 2252 rv 0.181237 0.163365 44 34.4
Voters 7/6/2018 6/27/2018 7/2/2018 The Washington Post A+ 1473 rv 2.818629 2.569454 47 37
Voters 7/6/2018 6/29/2018 7/3/2018 Ipsos B+ 1689 rv 0.139887 0.130666 41.4 36.5
Voters 7/6/2018 7/1/2018 7/3/2018 YouGov B 1259 rv 0.766315 0.740651 42 38
Voters 7/6/2018 6/30/2018 7/4/2018 Ipsos B+ 1394 rv 0.119087 0.11515 42.7 35.5
Voters 7/6/2018 7/1/2018 7/5/2018 Ipsos B+ 1383 rv 0.610493 0.610493 43.5 34.8

 

[fskimospy]

Looking at the underlying data, we see a strong lean toward dem voters. You can look at the raw data yourself. So it will be interesting to see how the midterms unfold.

subgroup modeldate startdate enddate pollster grade samplesize population weight influence dem rep
Voters 7/6/2018 6/27/2018 7/1/2018 Ipsos B+ 2198 rv 0.17246 0.149827 44.4 34.3
Voters 7/6/2018 6/28/2018 6/29/2018 Morning Consult B- 1990 rv 0.636679 0.551038 43 35
Voters 7/6/2018 6/28/2018 7/2/2018 Ipsos B+ 2252 rv 0.181237 0.163365 44 34.4
Voters 7/6/2018 6/27/2018 7/2/2018 The Washington Post A+ 1473 rv 2.818629 2.569454 47 37
Voters 7/6/2018 6/29/2018 7/3/2018 Ipsos B+ 1689 rv 0.139887 0.130666 41.4 36.5
Voters 7/6/2018 7/1/2018 7/3/2018 YouGov B 1259 rv 0.766315 0.740651 42 38
Voters 7/6/2018 6/30/2018 7/4/2018 Ipsos B+ 1394 rv 0.119087 0.11515 42.7 35.5
Voters 7/6/2018 7/1/2018 7/5/2018 Ipsos B+ 1383 rv 0.610493 0.610493 43.5 34.8

I’m not sure what you’re trying to argue here. The situation is exactly as I described it.

I imagine even you want to see the Democrats take the house so this is generally good news.

 

[dphantom]

I imagine even you want to see the Democrats take the house so this is generally good news.

goodness no. until the Dems get back to the JFK/Moynihan/Lieberman party there is no way I would ever consider voting for any dem.

 

[Commodus]

goodness no. until the Dems get back to the JFK/Moynihan/Lieberman party there is no way I would ever consider voting for any dem.

But you're perfectly comfortable with Republicans cutting taxes for the wealthy (while making only token and temporary offerings to everyone else), gutting affordable health care options, taking bribes from fossil fuel/insurance/telecom companies, and rigging elections with gerrymandering and voting laws. So you're betraying everything the US is supposed to stand for. Right, got it.

 

[umbrella39]

Ill give sp33d this much, hes more fun than russian trolls.

But he still cant find a non right wing site to confirm his bias

Here let me help

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2018-could-be-the-year-of-the-angry-white-college-graduate/

Just a busy sock puppet juggler... Nothing new. A more effective troll that the Felix account...

 

[ch33zw1z]

But you're perfectly comfortable with Republicans cutting taxes for the wealthy (while making only token and temporary offerings to everyone else), gutting affordable health care options, taking bribes from fossil fuel/insurance/telecom companies, and rigging elections with gerrymandering and voting laws. So you're betraying everything the US is supposed to stand for. Right, got it.

But, FYGM, so meh.

 

[Jhhnn]

But you're perfectly comfortable with Republicans cutting taxes for the wealthy (while making only token and temporary offerings to everyone else), gutting affordable health care options, taking bribes from fossil fuel/insurance/telecom companies, and rigging elections with gerrymandering and voting laws. So you're betraying everything the US is supposed to stand for. Right, got it.

The great illusion cast by the GOP is that middle class tax cuts can somehow compensate for the enormous loss of national income share to the financial elite. When your share falls by a third & your federal tax rate falls from 6% to 3% you're still getting screwed.

 

[shortylickens]

speeddemons daily desperation thread.

otherwise known as SDDT.

 

[fskimospy]

goodness no. until the Dems get back to the JFK/Moynihan/Lieberman party there is no way I would ever consider voting for any dem.

Jesus Christ, really? You’ve spent the last 18 months watching the Republicans in Congress refuse to perform their constitutional oversight duties, arguably their single most important duty, and you still won’t vote to restore accountability to our government because it’s the wrong political sports team?

We are in deep trouble as a country if people are this overwhelmed by partisanship that they don’t even want government to do its duty.

 

[shortylickens]

Democrats CANT do their job. And republicans refuse to.

So really, theres nobody to vote for.

 

[dphantom]

Jesus Christ, really? You’ve spent the last 18 months watching the Republicans in Congress refuse to perform their constitutional oversight duties, arguably their single most important duty, and you still won’t vote to restore accountability to our government because it’s the wrong political sports team?

We are in deep trouble as a country if people are this overwhelmed by partisanship that they don’t even want government to do its duty.

for the first time in a long time, Congress is at least partially performing its oversight duties. So I'll go with that for now.

 

[dphantom]

But you're perfectly comfortable with Republicans cutting taxes for the wealthy (while making only token and temporary offerings to everyone else), gutting affordable health care options, taking bribes from fossil fuel/insurance/telecom companies, and rigging elections with gerrymandering and voting laws. So you're betraying everything the US is supposed to stand for. Right, got it.

so many assertions, so little knowledge, so much drama

 

[soundforbjt]

for the first time in a long time, Congress is at least partially performing its oversight duties. So I'll go with that for now.

How? By chasing the evil FBI texters?
Exposing the Derp State?