Democrats Heading For Messy Nomination Process

[Pabster]

Story here.

I think there was a real consensus not all that long ago that the GOP would have a brokered convention...or at least, there was a good chance of it. Now it appears more likely that the Dems will have the brokered convention. If Hillary's advantage in 'Super' Delegates pushes her over the edge at the convention, can you imagine the havoc which would ensue within the party? Keep in mind there are over 200 'Super' delegates which remain unpledged and thus a truly accurate count of these is not possible.

 

[jonks]

Agree it could get messy but assume it's a very close race and Obama goes to the convention with slightly more pledged delegates. If enough supers go with Hillary for her to win, there's outrage. But if supers are merely supposed to vote for the pledged delegate leader, then why have supers at all?

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: sirjonk
Agree it could get messy but assume it's a very close race and Obama goes to the convention with slightly more pledged delegates. If enough supers go with Hillary for her to win, there's outrage. But if supers are merely supposed to vote for the pledged delegate leader, then why have supers at all?

Supers are there to protect the establishment from surprise. It's got nothing to do with popular votes.

 

[Fingolfin269]

I find it interesting that the party who thought the majority vote should count for something back in 2000 has a lot of people who find this scenario okay.

 

[Slick5150]

The messier part would be if all of a sudden Hillary tried to count the Michigan votes, who only had a choice of her, Kucinich, or undeclared.

Florida would be messy too.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269
I find it interesting that the party who thought the majority vote should count for something back in 2000 has a lot of people who find this scenario okay.

Hypocrisy at its finest.

 

[Phokus]

Originally posted by: Slick5150
The messier part would be if all of a sudden Hillary tried to count the Michigan votes, who only had a choice of her, Kucinich, or undeclared.

Florida would be messy too.

Why did Michigan only have those options and not obama or anyone else?

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: Phokus
Why did Michigan only have those options and not obama or anyone else?

Because the others avoided Michigan out of respect and loyalty to the DNC.

Michigan lost its delegates for scheduling their contest too early.

 

[Fingolfin269]

Originally posted by: Phokus

Originally posted by: Slick5150
The messier part would be if all of a sudden Hillary tried to count the Michigan votes, who only had a choice of her, Kucinich, or undeclared.

Florida would be messy too.

Why did Michigan only have those options and not obama or anyone else?

I believe Obama's camp didn't even bother getting on the ballot because they knew it would not count. Something along those lines anyway.

 

[nageov3t]

you say messy, I say awesome and exciting

it's pretty great to see the process actually play out and not have the primaries be a coronation like they were in 2k4, where the election was decided based on one state.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: loki8481
you say messy, I say awesome and exciting

it's pretty great to see the process actually play out and not have the primaries be a coronation like they were in 2k4, where the election was decided based on one state.

I agree with that. It's nice that the Queen's coronation has been cancelled. :laugh:

 

[ProfJohn]

If Obama enters the convention with a lead in the elected delegates but the super delegates push Hillary over the top I would expect the blacks to be so pissed that they sit the election out.

And if you think we have had problems with race politics so far wait until that unfolds.

Thank god the Republican Party doesn?t have to deal with race issues like the Democrats do.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
If Obama enters the convention with a lead in the elected delegates but the super delegates push Hillary over the top I would expect the blacks to be so pissed that they sit the election out.

that seems as likely to happen as the electoral college voting contrary to the election results.

if Obama comes into the convention with a lead in the elected delegates, I think the super's will fall in line... it seems almost safe to say that he's the almost-certain nominee at this point unless Hillary does a lot better in the upcoming primaries than anyone is predicting.

 

[bamacre]

I think we're going to see quite the significant shake-up of the two parties in the coming years. Both parties are coming apart, for different and similar reasons, mainly due to foreign and fiscal policies. Mark my words, in less than 10 years, we are going to have two very different parties compared to what we see today.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: loki8481
if Obama comes into the convention with a lead in the elected delegates, I think the super's will fall in line... it seems almost safe to say that he's the almost-certain nominee at this point unless Hillary does a lot better in the upcoming primaries than anyone is predicting.

Are you saying Obamarama is inevitable? :laugh:

I think he's got the momentum, no doubt about it. And if the reports about a cash crunch at Team Clinton are even halfway accurate...

At any rate, it's gonna be a hell of a finish. Obama has given the veteran Clinton machine everything it can take. And no one expected it.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269
I find it interesting that the party who thought the majority vote should count for something back in 2000 has a lot of people who find this scenario okay.

Bingo!

And if that happened it will be the story of the decade (at least).

8 yrs of whinning about the electoral college and how the popular is the most IMPORTANT.

To belie that nominating Hillary over Obama (with the majority of popular vote and elected delegates) would be hypocrisy at it's highest level.

Political comentators and Obama supporters would beat this story like a rented mule.

And as PJ said, the black vote may just stay home. Longer-term problems could develop too.

Fern

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: loki8481
if Obama comes into the convention with a lead in the elected delegates, I think the super's will fall in line... it seems almost safe to say that he's the almost-certain nominee at this point unless Hillary does a lot better in the upcoming primaries than anyone is predicting.

Are you saying Obamarama is inevitable? :laugh:

I think he's got the momentum, no doubt about it. And if the reports about a cash crunch at Team Clinton are even halfway accurate...

At any rate, it's gonna be a hell of a finish. Obama has given the veteran Clinton machine everything it can take. And no one expected it.

Obama has something better than the black vote to give to the Dems. He can carry red states. That's what is going to put him over the top.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: bamacre
I think we're going to see quite the significant shake-up of the two parties in the coming years. Both parties are coming apart, for different and similar reasons, mainly due to foreign and fiscal policies. Mark my words, in less than 10 years, we are going to have two very different parties compared to what we see today.

I can see a battle in the Republican Party between the conservatives and non-conservatives.

But I don?t see such a thing happening the Democrat Party.

Look at the differences between the Republican candidates and between the Democrats. The Democrats are the same on most issues; it is the Republicans who have real differences in political views.

The battle on the Republican side iis deological, the battle on the Democrat side personality based.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: loki8481
if Obama comes into the convention with a lead in the elected delegates, I think the super's will fall in line... it seems almost safe to say that he's the almost-certain nominee at this point unless Hillary does a lot better in the upcoming primaries than anyone is predicting.

Are you saying Obamarama is inevitable? :laugh:

I think he's got the momentum, no doubt about it. And if the reports about a cash crunch at Team Clinton are even halfway accurate...

At any rate, it's gonna be a hell of a finish. Obama has given the veteran Clinton machine everything it can take. And no one expected it.

nothing's inevitable

but I'd say it's highly likely... it's been a helluva campaign on both sides, but people seem to be really buying into the whole change thing.

makes no difference to me, really... I'll probably vote for the democratic nominee, whoever it is, mostly due to their promise to try and end don't ask/don't tell. Hillbama are interchangeable for me, but I think Obama might have a better shot in the general election, if his image holds up under scrutiny.

 

[bamacre]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: bamacre
I think we're going to see quite the significant shake-up of the two parties in the coming years. Both parties are coming apart, for different and similar reasons, mainly due to foreign and fiscal policies. Mark my words, in less than 10 years, we are going to have two very different parties compared to what we see today.

I can see a battle in the Republican Party between the conservatives and non-conservatives.

But I don?t see such a thing happening the Democrat Party.

Look at the differences between the Republican candidates and between the Democrats. The Democrats are the same on most issues; it is the Republicans who have real differences in political views.

The battle on the Republican side iis deological, the battle on the Democrat side personality based.

I think that'll change when the fiscal problems become blatantly obvious. The future promised expenditures of SS and medicare are going to be a problem that they will soon have to acknowledge.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269

Originally posted by: Phokus

Originally posted by: Slick5150
The messier part would be if all of a sudden Hillary tried to count the Michigan votes, who only had a choice of her, Kucinich, or undeclared.

Florida would be messy too.

Why did Michigan only have those options and not obama or anyone else?

I believe Obama's camp didn't even bother getting on the ballot because they knew it would not count. Something along those lines anyway.

After Michigan and Florida scheduled primaries ahead of Feb 5 against the DNC's rules, the DNC said they won't seat those state's delegates at the convention. The candidates agreed not to publicly campaign in those states. Obama and Edwards pulled out of the Michigan ballot to make nice in Iowa/NH, and because Hillary had a double digit lead in the polls, so why take a loss if the delegates won't count?

Most people predict that the MI/FL delegates will be seated at the convention anyway, because FL is a very important swing state, and the Dems don't want to piss off the FL voters by implying they don't care what they think, costing them the state in the general election.

 

[piasabird]

I am hoping for Cage Match free for all.

WWF!!!!

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Because the others avoided Michigan out of respect and loyalty to the DNC.

Michigan lost its delegates for scheduling their contest too early.

But will the DNC respect them now, or will it turn out that they were suckers?

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: ProfJohnThank god the Republican Party doesn?t have to deal with race issues like the Democrats do.

Maybe not yet, but they sure do have lots of religious issues to deal with.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

I wonder...if Hillary is the nominee...will Obama supporters vote for Hillary? Don't many of them dislike Hillary and aren't there many voters in both parties who dislike Hillary? On the other hand, if Obama is nominated, would Hillary supporters vote for him? As far as I know, Obama doesn't have a "hate club" in either party. (Looking for a term that would be the opposite of "fan club".)